Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

Most of your deaths happened BEFORE the vaccines. EVERYONE was unvaxxed. Granted, the US has done a crappy job since then just not AS bad....thanks to vaccines.

Canada does such a "great" job that even with a very high vaccination rate, you've got to have mitigation measures to keep hospitals from running out of capacity during an Omicron wave that has a very low hospitalization rate. I'm jealous of Canada. Well, at least I'm jealous of curling in Canada. On second thought the US has gotten pretty good at that also.

 

[DisneyCane]

The US today is at 222 cases per 100k, hospitalizations of 41 per 100k and deaths of 0.5 per 100k. Florida is at 276 cases, 43 hospitalizations and 0.14 deaths. New York is at 379 cases, 63 hospitalizations and 0.68 deaths. New Jersey is at 357 cases, 68 hospitalizations and 0.68 deaths. Again it appears all 3 states are just about at peak. Too bad the country isnt there yet.

Now onto NYC and Essex County NJ. NYC is at 482 cases per 100k and Essex County is at 393. However, Essex County is no longer the highest county in NJ, Passaic County too that honor a few days ago and are at 437.

The good news on testing is that starting on January 15 the new rules on Insurance companies being required to pay for home testing starts. They are required to pay for 8 tests a month for each member. That means 16 tests a month for a couple and 32 for a family of 4. Too bad it is too late to do anything about this peak. Also there is still no date on when the 500 millions tests the government promised in December will start to be shipped. What a great job the federal government is doing. We needed the 500 million tests in December not February.

NY, NJ and FL are probably all in that peak plateau. We'll know when the peak was from hospitalizations and when it gets back low enough for the testing volume to capture the curve.

As for the testing, I don't think most people can source 2 tests per month let alone 8 so I'm not sure it matters much who will pay for them.

 

[DisneyFan32]

NY, NJ and FL are probably all in that peak plateau. We'll know when the peak was from hospitalizations and when it gets back low enough for the testing volume to capture the curve.

As for the testing, I don't think most people can source 2 tests per month let alone 8 so I'm not sure it matters much who will pay for them.

I hope Europe will peak the wave soon in months.

 

[mmascari]

Bummer about the x95 though. I cannot find ones that fit me well - they are harder to find here in kid sizes which is what I wear. I do use surgical though

If you find a source, please share.

My second kid has a small face and has started to wear a paper under a cloth mask. The large masks are too big, and most "kid" masks are to small. They need something like a "teenager" or "tween" size mask. The N95 they got at school is just a normal adult one and doesn't really fit. The teachers had them put them on on top of what they were already wearing.

I keep trying to find KN95 masks with reviews like "it's small" or "fit was to small". The last attempt was only slightly smaller than a large adult, not nearly enough. The rest of the family can use those failed ones at least.

 

[Kevin_W]

NY, NJ and FL are probably all in that peak plateau. We'll know when the peak was from hospitalizations and when it gets back low enough for the testing volume to capture the curve.

As for the testing, I don't think most people can source 2 tests per month let alone 8 so I'm not sure it matters much who will pay for them.

In our neck of the woods, free tests have been hard to come by, but Walgreens has had a steady supply of the two-for-$25 test kits.

 

[Polkadotdress]

An excellent "state of the country" update:

State of Affairs: Jan 10

The world reported more than 9.5 million cases last week, which is a 71% increase compared to the previous week. Although the greatest increase is still in the Americas (+100%), every region in the world now has increasing case trends. (Notice the y-axis is different for each region in the...

yourlocalepidemiologist.substack.com

With a link to a US hospital capacity database:

COVID-19 Circuit Breaker Dashboard

 

[Kevin_W]

If you find a source, please share.

My second kid has a small face and has started to wear a paper under a cloth mask. The large masks are too big, and most "kid" masks are to small. They need something like a "teenager" or "tween" size mask. The N95 they got at school is just a normal adult one and doesn't really fit. The teachers had them put them on on top of what they were already wearing.

I keep trying to find KN95 masks with reviews like "it's small" or "fit was to small". The last attempt was only slightly smaller than a large adult, not nearly enough. The rest of the family can use those failed ones at least.

These are not inexpensive, but I have a smallish face and found these to be uncomfortably small/tight when I purchased them back in February.

 

[mmascari]

Canada does such a "great" job that even with a very high vaccination rate, you've got to have mitigation measures to keep hospitals from running out of capacity during an Omicron wave that has a very low hospitalization rate.

Is it all of Canada or just that one Ontario set of data?

If we're going to push the "Hospitalization with COVID" instead it's all "Hospitalization for COVID", it's possible that's the reason the Ontario graph looks that way.

Are there any other locations reporting similar scenarios where it's higher for vaccinated than unvaccinated people?

The NY Times newsletter today looks at NY City and Seattle for cases, hospitalizations, deaths between vaccinated and unvaccinated. They match the rest of the reports that unvaccinated is way way worse. They include some notes about the "with" vs "for", which really just makes the differences even larger.

The Morning: A growing gap

I think that link should load the newsletter.

They call out some notes that while Omicron is milder (less hospitalization), that's way more true for vaccinated. For the unvaccinated it's still plenty severe to be an issue.

I would still love to know why the Ontario graphs look the way they do, as they definitely seem to be an outlier. Which makes me think there's a hidden story in there somewhere.

 

[Jrb1979]

Is it all of Canada or just that one Ontario set of data?

If we're going to push the "Hospitalization with COVID" instead it's all "Hospitalization for COVID", it's possible that's the reason the Ontario graph looks that way.

Are there any other locations reporting similar scenarios where it's higher for vaccinated than unvaccinated people?

The NY Times newsletter today looks at NY City and Seattle for cases, hospitalizations, deaths between vaccinated and unvaccinated. They match the rest of the reports that unvaccinated is way way worse. They include some notes about the "with" vs "for", which really just makes the differences even larger.

The Morning: A growing gap

I think that link should load the newsletter.

They call out some notes that while Omicron is milder (less hospitalization), that's way more true for vaccinated. For the unvaccinated it's still plenty severe to be an issue.

I would still love to know why the Ontario graphs look the way they do, as they definitely seem to be an outlier. Which makes me think there's a hidden story in there somewhere.

I think part of why hospitalizations are up in Ontario is that they have gone to only testing those in hospital, long term care homes and those that work in those places. A lot of people are going to the hospital to get tested and I wouldn't be surprised many are getting admitted.

As far as mitigations go I wouldn't be surprised to see them end soon. Kids go back to in school next week.

 

[mmascari]

I think part of why hospitalizations are up in Ontario is that they have gone to only testing those in hospital, long term care homes and those that work in those places. A lot of people are going to the hospital to get tested and I wouldn't be surprised many are getting admitted.

As far as mitigations go I wouldn't be surprised to see them end soon. Kids go back to in school next week.

It's all the graphs on this page: https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data#hospitalizationsByVaccinationStatus

Both by raw number for bunch of graphs, and cases by rate/100K they seem to show more vaccinated than unvaccinated. Which is strange. Unfortunately, the data isn't available by age. Combined with by age there's a bigger difference in vaccination status with off the charts high vaccinated for older people. It's very possible that older people are just more vulnerable and the near 100% vaccinated means there's going to be more of them. If there was age data for breakthroughs, that would show or dispel that notion.

This type of graph gets funky as a group approaches 100% vaccinated.

There's also that this graph is different than every other example of this type of graph. Knowing why is likely super interesting. But, it also means I wouldn't use this one example as the definitive rule.

 

[Jrb1979]

It's all the graphs on this page: https://covid-19.ontario.ca/data#hospitalizationsByVaccinationStatus

Both by raw number for bunch of graphs, and cases by rate/100K they seem to show more vaccinated than unvaccinated. Which is strange. Unfortunately, the data isn't available by age. Combined with by age there's a bigger difference in vaccination status with off the charts high vaccinated for older people. It's very possible that older people are just more vulnerable and the near 100% vaccinated means there's going to be more of them. If there was age data for breakthroughs, that would show or dispel that notion.

This type of graph gets funky as a group approaches 100% vaccinated.

There's also that this graph is different than every other example of this type of graph. Knowing why is likely super interesting. But, it also means I wouldn't use this one example as the definitive rule.

If you scroll down they do break down cases by age and vaccination status. If you go by that those over 80+ have the highest number of cases and they are still rising. Most of them are fully vaccinated. Everyone else is on a downward slope.

The ICU is probably mostly those 80+. The hospitalizations IMO is due to people not being able to be tested anymore. Many are going to the hospital just to get tested.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

One thought about the "hospitalizations with" vs. "hospitalizations for." Obviously, it's a good sign when some places are seeing a 50/50-ish split in those numbers, but it's important to remember that even the "hospitalizations with" require separation from those patients who tested negative because the hospitals don't want to be spreading it around to other patients who might not have a great outcome if they catch it. So while it's not an issue of every patient needing to be treated for COVID-19, it is still an issue of taking up space and resources that can't be used for patients without COVID-19.

 

[mmascari]

If you scroll down they do break down cases by age and vaccination status. If you go by that those over 80+ have the highest number of cases and they are still rising. Most of them are fully vaccinated. Everyone else is on a downward slope.

The ICU is probably mostly those 80+. The hospitalizations IMO is due to people not being able to be tested anymore. Many are going to the hospital just to get tested.

Ahh, they fixed it. I didn't even click the age buckets. They still have this note at the top of the page "Due to technical difficulties, the case rate by vaccination status by age group is not available". Last week (2 weeks ago?), this data bay age only went to October. Now it looks like they have data into January.

If I had to guess, looking the cases by age/vaccination, the "booster dose" percents, and the "fully vaccinated" percents, I would say this points out that for Omicron you really need a booster. That without it, you're not getting nearly as much protection. I'm basing this on the unvaccinated cases are high in low "fully vaccinated" groups, while the vaccinated cases are higher in high "fully vaccinated" groups because almost everyone is vaccinated but that the "booster dose" percentage is much lower.

We've pretty much known you really need a booster for a while now. There could be something else in there, and I would love to see a real write up by someone with time and better access to the data to show what's going on in Ontario.

What we don't know yet, and we're not going to know for another 6 months still, is how long getting a booster dose lasts. Is that the last one and 3 is a magic number. Do we need 4 to get the magic, is it 5, does the length between doses start to extend, or is is yearly. We'll know that when we know it. I'm not ready to just accept that it's worse case yearly or more often yet based on what we know so far. Doesn't mean it couldn't be though.

 

[Lilofan]

Canada does such a "great" job that even with a very high vaccination rate, you've got to have mitigation measures to keep hospitals from running out of capacity during an Omicron wave that has a very low hospitalization rate. I'm jealous of Canada. Well, at least I'm jealous of curling in Canada. On second thought the US has gotten pretty good at that also.

Curling you say?

Why did men invent curling?
To convince women that sweeping is a sport.

When I saw this for the first time in the Olympics , I was in shock this was even an event.

 

[mmascari]

One thought about the "hospitalizations with" vs. "hospitalizations for." Obviously, it's a good sign when some places are seeing a 50/50-ish split in those numbers, but it's important to remember that even the "hospitalizations with" require separation from those patients who tested negative because the hospitals don't want to be spreading it around to other patients who might not have a great outcome if they catch it. So while it's not an issue of every patient needing to be treated for COVID-19, it is still an issue of taking up space and resources that can't be used for patients without COVID-19.

Yup. I didn't mean to diminish or suggest it didn't matter. Just to point out that thinking of it that way makes the differences even larger. Plus, if you're in the hospital for something else just "with COVID", even if it's "mild" it's still making it worse for whatever else that is. Even if the last thing piled on top of you is relatively small, it's still there and could be the thing that tips the scales poorly. For all sizes and definitions of "relatively small" or "mild".

Yesterday, I was thinking of a "mild" ghost pepper vs a ghost pepper vs a plain green pepper. Not all interpretations of "mild" are the same.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Curling you say?

Why did men invent curling?
To convince women that sweeping is a sport.

When I saw this for the first time in the Olympics , I was in shock this was even an event.

Quick note.. I thought the same thing. But I got addicted to it for some odd reason. Liked it so much the local ice rink near me had curling lessons and I signed up. Hundreds did. I couldn’t believe it. Anyway it was fun to learn and play against others. And it’s hard. Very hard. But it was a blast and I’m so looking forward to the Olympics to watch again! I ski a lot so the Winter Olympics always are my favorite but besides the skiing and luge and other things.. curling has snuck into my watching. I tell people to just give it a hour. At that time you will love it.. or not. But 5 minutes won’t give you a good taste.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Phildelphia went from 48 schools virtual to over a 100 in one day. Is there any teachers that don’t have COVID? That’s sarcasm but it’s incredible.

 

[Jrb1979]

@mmascari hope this helps in explaining some of the hospitalizations.

 

[correcaminos]

If you find a source, please share.

My second kid has a small face and has started to wear a paper under a cloth mask. The large masks are too big, and most "kid" masks are to small. They need something like a "teenager" or "tween" size mask. The N95 they got at school is just a normal adult one and doesn't really fit. The teachers had them put them on on top of what they were already wearing.

I keep trying to find KN95 masks with reviews like "it's small" or "fit was to small". The last attempt was only slightly smaller than a large adult, not nearly enough. The rest of the family can use those failed ones at least.

If I find anything I'll let you know. Double masking for me doesn't feel any better with gaps. I've struck out so far and my friends with tweens are finding the same issue. Considering I buy hats from the kids department more often than not that tells you my size of head.

Fortunately my kid is 5'8" and adult sized. He has less issues. I just haven't gotten him some K95s yet. We had an exposure on Friday for him - just found out today which means 5 days is tomorrow for testing so I was out finding tests and no luck on K95s we can use in person either.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Yup. I didn't mean to diminish or suggest it didn't matter. Just to point out that thinking of it that way makes the differences even larger. Plus, if you're in the hospital for something else just "with COVID", even if it's "mild" it's still making it worse for whatever else that is. Even if the last thing piled on top of you is relatively small, it's still there and could be the thing that tips the scales poorly. For all sizes and definitions of "relatively small" or "mild".

Yesterday, I was thinking of a "mild" ghost pepper vs a ghost pepper vs a plain green pepper. Not all interpretations of "mild" are the same.

Oh my post wasn't directed at you (or anyone, really). It was just a thought that occurred to me. I've seen posts on social media where the conspiracy theory people point to those numbers as "proof" that everything is inflated and hospitals aren't really burdened by the number of patients with COVID-19 because they're in the hospital for some other reason, but nobody (even the media) seems to mention that hospital rooms are rarely single-occupancy, so a person hospitalized "with COVID-19" rather than "for COVID-19" is still taking up a bed in a room that can no longer be shared by anyone other than another COVID-19 patient, regardless of why they were admitted in the first place. While the breakdown is useful in painting a clearer picture regarding the severity of illnesses, it's still far from the complete picture because then people cherry-pick the part that fits their agenda.