Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[drizgirl]

There are a lot of problems with this idea, but even if you could make it happen 21-28 days wouldn't be enough unless every person isolated themselves for every other person. If multiple people are locked down together there is a chance that one infected person transmits it to another late in their infectious period which would keep the infection going longer the 28 days.

Then just tack on another 28 days. No big deal!

 

[MisterPenguin]

Why Covid Death Rates Are Rising for Some Groups (Published 2021)

Since vaccines became widely available in April, nearly 250,000 people have died from Covid-19 in the United States. Their demographics are different from earlier in the pandemic.

www.nytimes.com

"Young people don't need to get vaccinated!!"

"States with high vaccination rates don't seem to be doing any better than low vaccination states!!"

 

[MisterPenguin]

Side effect of the vaccine compared to the side effect of not getting vaccinated...

 

[Nubs70]

Just harvest a bunch of leaves off of trees. If it had been done at the right time in the north you could just rake them up and store in bags.

Or one could hoist up your legs and scoot across the carpet like a dog. However, this method is less effective if you have hardwood floors.

 

[DisneyCane]

Why Covid Death Rates Are Rising for Some Groups (Published 2021)

Since vaccines became widely available in April, nearly 250,000 people have died from Covid-19 in the United States. Their demographics are different from earlier in the pandemic.

www.nytimes.com

"Young people don't need to get vaccinated!!"
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"States with high vaccination rates don't seem to be doing any better than low vaccination states!!"
View attachment 610226

I think there are some issues with this analysis. While the overall conclusion is correct - being vaccinated lowers your risk of dying from COVID significantly, there are factors that must be missing. FL is at least 50% higher in death rate than the peer states for vaccination rate. Of course the huge Delta surge had a lot to do with it but does that mean the data shown is skewed by timing and a similar Delta surge will increase the rates in the other, similarly vaccinated states? Are there other factors?

Then you have the next group of states in the 55-60% vaccinated range. Half of them have death rates in line with the much higher vaccinated states and the other half are in line with much lower vaccinated states. Based on these states, you can't then draw a conclusion of a death rate to vaccination rate inverse relationship.

I also see an issue with the 65+ death share stats. The COVID deaths skewed significantly to 65+ and were very disproportionate to cases before the vaccines were available. The lower COVID deaths to all cause deaths could simply be that many of the people most likely to die from COVID in this age group, died prior to vaccine availability.

The chart also suggests that once you get to 70% of the population fully vaccinated, going higher doesn't make any significant difference to the death rate. I can't imagine this is true.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Your GF might want to look into the Novavax vaccine once it's approved in the US. It'll be the second non-MRNA vaccine in the US.

I'm very interested to see how this one holds up, because it targets more than one viral protein.

My college-aged daughter has been vaxx'd with this as part of the trial, and it has protected her well in the "wilds" of college!

I did read they held up but are producing an omicron variant vaccine as well. It's been very quiet on the US approval timeline which worries me.

This has been THE MOST FRUSTRATING THING about Novovax...the slowness of being approved. Thankfully now it is recognized as an approved trial vax, so my daughter is no longer considered unvaxx'd.

 

[mkt]

My college-aged daughter has been vaxx'd with this as part of the trial, and it has protected her well in the "wilds" of college!

This has been THE MOST FRUSTRATING THING about Novovax...the slowness of being approved. Thankfully now it is recognized as an approved trial vax, so my daughter is no longer considered unvaxx'd.

Efficacy and Safety of NVX-CoV2373 in Adults in the United States and Mexico | NEJM

Original Article from The New England Journal of Medicine — Efficacy and Safety of NVX-CoV2373 in Adults in the United States and Mexico

www.nejm.org

CONCLUSIONS​

NVX-CoV2373 was safe and effective for the prevention of Covid-19. Most breakthrough cases were caused by contemporary variant strains.

 

[correcaminos]

My college-aged daughter has been vaxx'd with this as part of the trial, and it has protected her well in the "wilds" of college!

This has been THE MOST FRUSTRATING THING about Novovax...the slowness of being approved. Thankfully now it is recognized as an approved trial vax, so my daughter is no longer considered unvaxx'd.

I'm annoyed by the slowness as well. Not in that trial though but I get her issues. At least AZ trials here were recognized a long time ago. I imagine Novovax being approved in other countries helped her status too. AZ trial participants were luckier that that vaccine moved through faster in some countries. I assume here it's never getting approved. Thank her again for joining! Totally selfless of her to join!

 

[Heppenheimer]

I think there are some issues with this analysis. While the overall conclusion is correct - being vaccinated lowers your risk of dying from COVID significantly, there are factors that must be missing. FL is at least 50% higher in death rate than the peer states for vaccination rate. Of course the huge Delta surge had a lot to do with it but does that mean the data shown is skewed by timing and a similar Delta surge will increase the rates in the other, similarly vaccinated states? Are there other factors?

Then you have the next group of states in the 55-60% vaccinated range. Half of them have death rates in line with the much higher vaccinated states and the other half are in line with much lower vaccinated states. Based on these states, you can't then draw a conclusion of a death rate to vaccination rate inverse relationship.

I also see an issue with the 65+ death share stats. The COVID deaths skewed significantly to 65+ and were very disproportionate to cases before the vaccines were available. The lower COVID deaths to all cause deaths could simply be that many of the people most likely to die from COVID in this age group, died prior to vaccine availability.

The chart also suggests that once you get to 70% of the population fully vaccinated, going higher doesn't make any significant difference to the death rate. I can't imagine this is true.

Florida's large retirement population probably disproportionately affects their death rate.

 

[Incomudro]

I know everyone laughs at me, but I still think an extremely strict 21-28 day "you will be arrested if you so much as think about leaving your personal property" lockdown all but eradicates this.

And how would it be determined that all of us have enough provisions to last 21-28 days?
Perhaps the government could issue supply rations based on family size?
Who determines what is enough?
MRE's, FEMA water... Perhaps flashlights and batteries in case the power goes out?
What if something fails in people's dwellings?
A hot water heater fails, a gas leak, electrical problems... Are local teams in place to offer quick help?
Can I go in my backyard? My property is 100 x 200,' can I fill up the bird feeder?
How about people on much larger properties? Ranches, farms, people who live in the woods... Can they step outside?

 

[carolina_yankee]

Have any reputable sources done an in depth comparison of states yet?

I’ve been trying to compare states to see if things like masks, social distancing, etc make a substantial difference and I’m finding it impossible with so many factors.

I was in Utah for Christmas and their stats are similar to Nevada but they never implemented mask mandates and we’ve had them for nearly 2 years now. FL and CA are also frequently compared based on their Governors very different approaches.

Where I’m getting stuck is Utah has the youngest population in the nation, NV and CA are in the middle, and Florida is the oldest.

Can someone point me to a study that compares rates per state by age group to see what works and what doesn’t?

You also have to take into account population density and mask adherence within those clusters, as well as propensity for private gatherings which might be unmasked and dense.

In NJ, Mercer County generally has better mask compliance than Monmouth County and their numbers reflect that. They are about the same vaccination-wise, but they also have dramatically different populations.

My congregation has been masked exclusively since reopening in July 2020 and we have had zero COVID spread. We are also highly vaccinated. We have also had lower on-site attendance in a very large, drafty, well-ventilated building. Another congregation had less mask compliance and more COVID, but a smaller building where people sat closer together and wasn't as well ventilated. Basically, for us, with Omicron chomping on NJ like Pacman eating pips, if we get to 10 days past Christmas with zero COVID spread (high attendance, high interaction including a pageant), I will assume masks saved us. Then again, a lot of people feeling symptoms attended online instead of onsite, so human wisdom may have also saved us.

It would be a very interesting comparison, but I think it would have to be a carefully designed study with lots of nuance.

 

[Incomudro]

You also have to take into account population density and mask adherence within those clusters, as well as propensity for private gatherings which might be unmasked and dense.

In NJ, Mercer County generally has better mask compliance than Monmouth County and their numbers reflect that. They are about the same vaccination-wise, but they also have dramatically different populations.

My congregation has been masked exclusively since reopening in July 2020 and we have had zero COVID spread. We are also highly vaccinated. We have also had lower on-site attendance in a very large, drafty, well-ventilated building. Another congregation had less mask compliance and more COVID, but a smaller building where people sat closer together and wasn't as well ventilated. Basically, for us, with Omicron chomping on NJ like Pacman eating pips, if we get to 10 days past Christmas with zero COVID spread (high attendance, high interaction including a pageant), I will assume masks saved us. Then again, a lot of people feeling symptoms attended online instead of onsite, so human wisdom may have also saved us.

It would be a very interesting comparison, but I think it would have to be a carefully designed study with lots of nuance.

As a Monmouth County resident (Manalapan) I kind of laugh at drawing things along county lines, and measuring things within a county as if the borders of a county are some kind of barrier.
Monmouth County is very large, and very varied in population density, depending on where you are.
There are houses right next to each other for block after block in places like Asbury Park.
There are condo dwellings and over 50 residences.
There are neighborhoods where houses are on large plots of land, farms etc.

 

[DisneyCane]

Florida's large retirement population probably disproportionately affects their death rate.

I'm sure that has something to do with it but I don't think the 65+ population is THAT much higher proportionally than those other states in the same vaccinated range. Everybody doesn't retire down to FL from the north although it can seem that way in some areas.

 

[mmascari]

I think there are some issues with this analysis. While the overall conclusion is correct - being vaccinated lowers your risk of dying from COVID significantly, there are factors that must be missing.

The chart also suggests that once you get to 70% of the population fully vaccinated, going higher doesn't make any significant difference to the death rate. I can't imagine this is true

If you fit a line, perhaps a slight curve steeper in the beginning, maybe there just are no data points with high enough vaccination to see the improvement. It’s not like all the points are directly on a line, they’re all off above or below it.

It’s a two variable graph and looks like there’s no attempt to control out other variables, of course it’s not perfect. From population age, density, state/county/town/business leadership direction, actual behavior of people, cross boarder interactions, timespan, and lots more all pulling the data points above or below what looks like a line. Some of those will pull more than others.

Nebraska, Florida, DC all look way outside the curve. May just be that whatever contributing factor pulls them more, or a combination of factors.

Lets see a state over 85% or 90% and see if the curve is getting very flat or still descending.

 

[DisneyCane]

Have any reputable sources done an in depth comparison of states yet?

I’ve been trying to compare states to see if things like masks, social distancing, etc make a substantial difference and I’m finding it impossible with so many factors.

I was in Utah for Christmas and their stats are similar to Nevada but they never implemented mask mandates and we’ve had them for nearly 2 years now. FL and CA are also frequently compared based on their Governors very different approaches.

Where I’m getting stuck is Utah has the youngest population in the nation, NV and CA are in the middle, and Florida is the oldest.

Can someone point me to a study that compares rates per state by age group to see what works and what doesn’t?

I think there are so many variables that it makes drawing firm conclusions very difficult. What variant is spreading and what time of year it is dominant also plays a role.

Just look at FL recently. With the same mitigations, after the Delta spike it got to the lowest cases per 100k (swapping with Hawaii and 1 or 2 other states depending on the day) for several weeks. Then Omicron hit and it became one of the highest in a matter of days but still not as high (yet) as NY which has much more mitigation. Then you bring in the variable of the weather in NY is cold and in FL it is beautiful right now so people in NY are more likely to be gathering indoors vs. people in FL right now.

 

[carolina_yankee]

As a Monmouth County resident (Manalapan) I kind of laugh at drawing things along county lines, and measuring things within a county as if the borders of a county are some kind of barrier.
Monmouth County is very large, and very varied in population density, depending on where you are.
There are houses right next to each other for block after block in places like Asbury Park.
There are condo dwellings and over 50 residences.
There are neighborhoods where houses are on large plots of land, farms etc.

I live in Freehold Borough. East of Rte 18 is very strange to me.

I agree - but my point was both counties are Central NJ counties with similar population diversities (rural, suburban, urban; white, non-white; etc.) and Mercer has generally had lower counts than Monmouth. Of course, Ocean has generally been worse, and I look at Lakewood and Toms River - two places were mask compliance was low, density is high (at least in Lakewood), and large private gatherings (unmasked) are common.

I can't say masking was the cause of reduced numbers, but my pulling them as an examples was to show that a study would have to be more than just looking at numbers - it would have to be very sophisticated and nuanced.

 

[Nubs70]

If you fit a line, perhaps a slight curve steeper in the beginning, maybe there just are no data points with high enough vaccination to see the improvement. It’s not like all the points are directly on a line, they’re all off above or below it.

It’s a two variable graph and looks like there’s no attempt to control out other variables, of course it’s not perfect. From population age, density, state/county/town/business leadership direction, actual behavior of people, cross boarder interactions, timespan, and lots more all pulling the data points above or below what looks like a line. Some of those will pull more than others.

Nebraska, Florida, DC all look way outside the curve. May just be that whatever contributing factor pulls them more, or a combination of factors.

Lets see a state over 85% or 90% and see if the curve is getting very flat or still descending.

Look at the UK. Vax rate is high. Infections have been elevated but fatalities have neither spiked nor have exhibited the phase shifted correlation between infections and fatalities of past surges.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I'm sure that has something to do with it but I don't think the 65+ population is THAT much higher proportionally than those other states in the same vaccinated range. Everybody doesn't retire down to FL from the north although it can seem that way in some areas.

As of 2020, only Maine had a higher percentage of the population over age 65, but in absolute numbers, Florida has an order of magnitude more than all but 19 other states, and is second overall in total numbers. Only CA has more total retirees, and those over age 65 are much lower percentage of their respective population than Florida.

Which U.S. States Have the Oldest Populations?

While southern states are regarded as retirement magnets, eight of the 10 states with the highest percentages of older residents are not in the South. What’s driving these regional patterns?

www.prb.org

Also consider that the chart above shows total deaths, not deaths per capita. So, with lots of vulnerable people clustered in retirement villages (a set-up that is far less common in retirement-unfriendly CA), I'm not surprised Florida was hit so hard.

 

[mf1972]

covid is taking its toll in my dept lately. 3 mri techs, 4 ct techs, & 12-14 x-ray techs have tested positive. my hospital is not allowing visitors to visit as of yesterday.

 

[Lilofan]

covid is taking its toll in my dept lately. 3 mri techs, 4 ct techs, & 12-14 x-ray techs have tested positive. my hospital is not allowing visitors to visit as of yesterday.

That is horrific. I can't imagine how many people were exposed to the ones testing positive. On a side note, being at a WDW park on NYE is the last place I would be in.