Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
That’s only if the decrease in severity is higher then the increase in infectiousness.

For instance let’s say delta causes hospitalizations in 20% of cases. Now let’s say omercron is less severe and halves the chance of hospitalizations (10%.). However if omercron is 8x more infectious then omercron will increase hospitalizations 4x.

Precisely, milder disease in most does not mean everyone will face milder disease. Transmissibility is an important and worrying factor with omicron.

More spread + milder illness mean more people walking around with covid. This means more possibilities to infect more people, resulting in high probabilities of infecting someone who is immuncompromised.

The rate at which omicron can spread, may mean lots have mild cases, but will also mean hospitals can still be overwhelmed.

Especially in a country full of misinformation, anti-vaxxers, and anti-maskers.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
If Omicron was 8x more infectious than Delta wouldn't that make it the most contact virus ever known to man?

Hopefully the hospitalizations are less than half of Delta.
Yes, but that was just a round number that is a possibility, final tests are pending. Meanwhile, UK hospitalizations are rising very quickly.
 

Wendy Pleakley

Well-Known Member
Precisely, milder disease in most does not mean everyone will face milder disease. Transmissibility is an important and worrying factor with omicron.

More spread + milder illness mean more people walking around with covid. This means more possibilities to infect more people, resulting in high probabilities of infecting someone who is immuncompromised.

The rate at which omicron can spread, may mean lots have mild cases, but will also mean hospitals can still be overwhelmed.

Especially in a country full of misinformation, anti-vaxxers, and anti-maskers.

Plus, more chance for future mutations.

Omicron appears to be mild in terms of illness, but the next one may not be.

Imagine not being vaccinated when a strain that is both super contagious and super impactful comes along.
 

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
Thanks for the update. The anecdotal evidence so far is that Omicron doesn't cause serious illness in as high a percentage of cases compared to prior variants. If that goes from anecdotal to empirical it will be a very good thing.
That is the hope, but most data I'm seeing cautions that it doesn't seem to be the case so far.

 

Disney Analyst

Well-Known Member
Plus, more chance for future mutations.

Omicron appears to be mild in terms of illness, but the next one may not be.

Imagine not being vaccinated when a strain that is both super contagious and super impactful comes along.

I am making up these numbers, I am too lazy to find actual data, so jump on this hypothetical train with me.

Say in a month 800 people get delta, and usually about 20% are hospitalized. That’s 160 people.

Say Omicron is only 10%, at a 4x more transmissible virus, that’s 3,200 infected in a month. 320 people in hospital.

We can still see the system strained. Most important thing we can do is vaccinate and mitigate.
 

DCBaker

Premium Member
"Parents will have to wait for a coronavirus vaccine for their young children after Pfizer and BioNTech announced Friday that they are modifying their clinical trial to include a third shot at least two months after the initial two-dose regimen for children under age 5.

The companies reported that two doses of the pediatric vaccine failed in 2-, 3- and 4-year-olds to trigger an immune response comparable to what was generated in teens and older adults. The vaccine did generate an adequate immune response in children 6 months to 2 years old.

If three doses are successful at triggering a protective immune response, the companies expect to submit the data to regulators in the first half of next year.

“It is important to note that this adjustment is not anticipated to meaningfully change our expectations that we would file for emergency use authorization and conditional approvals in the second quarter of 2022,” said Kathrin Jansen, head of vaccine research and development for Pfizer in a call with investors.

Coronavirus vaccines have been authorized for everyone age 5 and older.

The companies have been testing two shots of a 3-microgram dose in children under 5, a small fraction of the adult dose. Because children’s immune systems are different from adults‘, smaller doses are expected to trigger equivalent immune protection. The trials were designed to test the safety and efficacy of the lower dose.

Many parents and pediatricians hoped that if the results had been positive, Pfizer would be in a position to file for regulatory authorization early next year.

Kawsar Talaat, one of the principal investigators of the Pfizer pediatric trial and a physician at Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, said that while the news may be disappointing, a third dose is expected to work well to provide protection, particularly against omicron.

“I think that a third dose will give a nice boost, and honestly, this is really exciting — as we know from the adult data, three doses is probably better for omicron. And I think it’ll be good to have similar data for children,” Talaat said.

The companies are also testing a third dose in 5- to 11-year-olds and a third low-dose shot for adolescents between 12 and 17.
The decision was informed by comparing the immune response in the youngest children to older teens and young adults, and by emerging data that three doses are most protective against variants such as omicron."


Here is the release from Pfizer -

 

Kman

Well-Known Member
It's especially ridiculous when the people making that argument refuse to listen when shown evidence that vaccines don't cause long-term side effects and that the mRNA is out of your system within days. When people choose to ignore evidence they are either not arguing in good faith or are so brainwashed by anti-vax rhetoric that they'd sooner believe that vaccines cause your favorite pair of socks to get a hole in them than believe that vaccines are safe.

I can understand the initial fear of the unknown. Back in the summer/fall of 2020, I wasn't planning to rush to the front of the line to get my shots when they became available. I figured I'd wait a few months and see how it played out. By the time they became available in late-2020, I had read enough about them and the trials to feel comfortable getting them as soon as I could. Unfortunately, some people never bother doing that while also plugging their ears and closing their eyes and yelling, "Lalalalala, I can't hear you!" when provided with any real information.
I find it amusing that people want to "see more data". Most of these folks wouldn't understand the data even if it came in the form of a picture book. My question is, do they read "the data" before they take an Advil? Do they ask the hospital staff for "the data" before they are given medications in a hospital setting? I certainly hope so because who the hell knows what is being put into their bodies! I had no idea we had so many "experts" in North America! Ridiculous!
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
well, at least it's looking like South Africa has already peaked from Omicron and numbers are coming down. Fast and Furious.

That's...something?
I'm not so sure I'd say it peaked yet. There was that one really high day. If it has peaked or is near peak then maybe the Omicron outbreaks will be in the 5-8 week timeframe start to finish which would be much shorter than Delta but possibly with higher peaks.
 

dreday3

Well-Known Member
I'm not so sure I'd say it peaked yet. There was that one really high day. If it has peaked or is near peak then maybe the Omicron outbreaks will be in the 5-8 week timeframe start to finish which would be much shorter than Delta but possibly with higher peaks.

I certainly don't know, I was just reading articles about it today. Who knows.
 

MisterPenguin

President of Animal Kingdom
Premium Member
Orange County has moved to 'high.'

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