Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[sullyinMT]

I agree with you to an extent. However, since the vaccines are not close to 100% effective in stopping transmission risk you can't say that a vaccinated person isn't a threat to some degree. It is a significantly lower degree than an unvaccinated person but it isn't near zero.

If everybody was vaccinated, community spread would be lower but it would still happen to a not insignificant degree. The vaccines are just not effective enough vs. infection for the herd immunity math to ever work out with Delta or Omicron transmissibility. Had 80% of the the entire world been vaccinated before Delta existed then maybe eradication was possible. However, that would have been logistically impossible to do as there wasn't nearly enough supply.

For a fully vaccinated person who keeps up with boosters and is under 60 is going to have a 0.02% or lower chance of dying from COVID in a 12 month period and that risk will get lower the younger the person is. My estimate is likely high because I only used 80% effectivity vs. death and I used actual population mortality rates from FL. It is statistically insignificant compared to the chance of death by any cause. That's why I continue to say to protect yourself by getting vaccinated and keeping up with recommended boosters and stop worrying about the holdouts or trying to force them to be vaccinated. It isn't going to have a significant effect on the risk to a vaccinated person either way.

With Delta still the dominant strain here, hospitalization is a 12:1 ratio non-vaccinated:vaccinated. Spread and hospitalization would occur, like you said. But the burden to the healthcare system would be significantly lower with real, strict, mandates. Then we wouldn’t need to worry about the true medical exemptions and some very rare religious exemptions. Knowing that all of the major religions in the western world (not local preachers, but leaders at the top) have not declared a top-down religious decree in opposition, there should be a real burden of proof for anyone claiming religious disagreement with this vaccine. Then, we could “learn to live” with whatever disease burden remains.

This is all theoretical, because we don’t have the stones as a nation to pull it off.

 

[lazyboy97o]

I don't know the details of the Montana law but the Florida law just makes it that any vaccination policy must include a regular testing option (at employer expense) and some exemptions. I think that an argument can be made that an unvaccinated person who is tested multiple times per week is less likely to be an asymptomatic spreader in the workplace than a vaccinated person who is never tested.

I think the main reason that these laws were passed was to give the states standing to sue over the OSHA requirement. Without a state law it would have to be individuals who filed suit (or a class in a class action). With the state laws in place, the OSHA requirement conflicts with state law and therefore the states can file suit to challenge the legality. I don't think these laws would have been passed if the executive order hadn't ordered OSHA to create employee vaccine mandates.

Employer paid tests cost the business money, that makes those employees a greater liability.

The laws were passed because they showed the blatant hypocrisy of the consumer protections. It was a huge hole in keeping those laws afloat even if the new employee protections contradict the claim of letting businesses decide how to respond.

 

[mmascari]

I agree with you to an extent. However, since the vaccines are not close to 100% effective in stopping transmission risk you can't say that a vaccinated person isn't a threat to some degree. It is a significantly lower degree than an unvaccinated person but it isn't near zero.

We don't need zero. Don't underestimate the value of "significantly".

If everybody was vaccinated, community spread would be lower but it would still happen to a not insignificant degree. The vaccines are just not effective enough vs. infection for the herd immunity math to ever work out with Delta or Omicron transmissibility. Had 80% of the the entire world been vaccinated before Delta existed then maybe eradication was possible. However, that would have been logistically impossible to do as there wasn't nearly enough supply.

Have to start somewhere, doesn't have to be the entire world. I'm super selfish here, I would be fine if we could solve the US.

Can we point to anyplace that has vaccinated enough people and doesn't include significant interaction with a neighbor that doesn't? Something beyond 80% or probably 85%? For instance, a county at 83% next to one at 65% with lots of cross county interaction isn't really an 83% example.

A fully vaccinated person who keeps up with boosters and is under 60 is going to have a 0.02% or lower chance of dying from COVID in a 12 month period and that risk will get lower the younger the person is. My estimate is likely high because I only used 80% effectivity vs. death and I used actual population mortality rates from FL. It is statistically insignificant compared to the chance of death by any cause. That's why I continue to say to protect yourself by getting vaccinated and keeping up with recommended boosters and stop worrying about the holdouts or trying to force them to be vaccinated. It isn't going to have a significant effect on the risk to a vaccinated person either way.

That may be true for some individuals, but it's certainly not true for everybody and it's 100% not true for protecting public health and everything that goes along with that. As hospitals fail, supply chains backup, workforce is required to cope with sick people, and the economy falters because of the continued public health problem, all of of those are impacted too.

So, it's great that the the under 60 vaccinated healthy person is at a low risk for death. That they're doing the work of two people because their coworker is sick, their retirement account is being devalued from inflation, they cannot buy the products they want, the businesses they enjoy are closing, and if they hurt themselves while doing extreme sports they have to settle for substandard health care. Bonus if they have someone in their life who isn't a under 60 healthy person and the lose them because of the extended high community spread. All of those are real threats too.

No man is an island.

 

[correcaminos]

With Delta still the dominant strain here, hospitalization is a 12:1 ratio non-vaccinated:vaccinated. Spread and hospitalization would occur, like you said. But the burden to the healthcare system would be significantly lower with real, strict, mandates. Then we wouldn’t need to worry about the true medical exemptions and some very rare religious exemptions. Knowing that all of the major religions in the western world (not local preachers, but leaders at the top) have not declared a top-down religious decree in opposition, there should be a real burden of proof for anyone claiming religious disagreement with this vaccine. Then, we could “learn to live” with whatever disease burden remains.

This is all theoretical, because we don’t have the stones as a nation to pull it off.

Spread would also be way lower. People like to ignore that since spread can happen they believe it's all the same. It's not.

 

[DisneyCane]

With Delta still the dominant strain here, hospitalization is a 12:1 ratio non-vaccinated:vaccinated. Spread and hospitalization would occur, like you said. But the burden to the healthcare system would be significantly lower with real, strict, mandates. Then we wouldn’t need to worry about the true medical exemptions and some very rare religious exemptions. Knowing that all of the major religions in the western world (not local preachers, but leaders at the top) have not declared a top-down religious decree in opposition, there should be a real burden of proof for anyone claiming religious disagreement with this vaccine. Then, we could “learn to live” with whatever disease burden remains.

This is all theoretical, because we don’t have the stones as a nation to pull it off.

As far as I'm aware there aren't any nations (certainly not ones that aren't run by authoritative governments) who have actually mandated that all citizens be vaccinated so it isn't just about the stones in the USA.

My point was that the vaccinated who are hospitalized aren't in that situation primarily due to the unvaccinated. Some studies have shown that there is virtually no difference in the contribution to community spread for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. Even if that isn't true, most evidence doesn't point to vaccination coming close to stopping the spread.

You can definitely make an argument to mandate vaccines in order to keep the unvaccinated from ending up in the hospital and burdening the health care system but that is a different argument. My solution to that would be to allot a certain percentage of bed capacity and ER capacity to unvaccinated people who need to be treated because they have COVID. When that capacity fills then somebody who is unvaccinated is just SOL. People should be given 2 months notice of this policy going into effect and then if they don't get vaccinated and need hospital services they have to live (or not) with the consequences of their decision.

 

[mmascari]

It is illegal to have a mandate and not include a regular testing option (at employer expense) as well as several exemptions including planning to become pregnant (which does require a note from a physician and has a time period of the plan to be determined by the department of health).

Does it need to be easy for the employee?
What covers employer expense?
Can their be any cost to the employee?

Can it be required to be done on the employee's own time outside normal working hours?
At place that requires a parking fee? An expensive fee?
Perhaps in the basement or third floor?
With only stairs, 3 floors worth, to get there?
Done 3 times a week?

Even if the employer covered $25 for an actual test, the rest of that could be obnoxious for an employee.

A company can fire people if they want to for not being vaccinated but they will have to pay a fine of $10,000 for each one if they have under 100 employees and $50,000 for each one if they have 100 or more employees.

Depending on the cost of having an employee out for 2 weeks and how that impacts the rest of business. Or, worse yet, having several employees out for even just one week. Paying that fine might be cheaper. Just a cost of doing business. Much like other regulatory penalties companies just pay sometimes instead of complying with.

 

[sullyinMT]

As far as I'm aware there aren't any nations (certainly not ones that aren't run by authoritative governments) who have actually mandated that all citizens be vaccinated so it isn't just about the stones in the USA.

My point was that the vaccinated who are hospitalized aren't in that situation primarily due to the unvaccinated. Some studies have shown that there is virtually no difference in the contribution to community spread for vaccinated vs. unvaccinated. Even if that isn't true, most evidence doesn't point to vaccination coming close to stopping the spread.

You can definitely make an argument to mandate vaccines in order to keep the unvaccinated from ending up in the hospital and burdening the health care system but that is a different argument. My solution to that would be to allot a certain percentage of bed capacity and ER capacity to unvaccinated people who need to be treated because they have COVID. When that capacity fills then somebody who is unvaccinated is just SOL. People should be given 2 months notice of this policy going into effect and then if they don't get vaccinated and need hospital services they have to live (or not) with the consequences of their decision.

Austria and Canada (via provincial patchwork) are the closest I can think of. Portugal had wide success without needing to take that step. Once Austria’s mandate has taken effect, we’ll see if it helps. I agree the western world as a whole has failed in various stages of misery on that spectrum. Political will and market fear have gotten in the way. I’d like to see if United has better flight performance/availability due to less staff being out sick. I’d rather businesses act and not have any level of government get in the way, except for their own employees the way the executive branch did. But that hasn’t worked thus far, and I struggle internally with how comfortable I am with government at any level now getting involved into the private sector for the sake of public health. I think they need to do something, but how long those fingers might get into the rest of our lives does worry me, I fully admit. Even as I push for business to act, and strongly, in this regard. From “passports” for customers in tight, non-essential settings like theaters and bars, to work requirements. My comment was more on boardroom fortitude than the government, at least for now. Except where they are the employer.

 

[Incomudro]

I'm totally fine with leaving people alone, however they will not leave the rest of us alone.

People who choose to to increase community spread and extend the duration of the pandemic making everything worse for everybody should stop being a part of everybody. They should leave the rest of us alone.

Want to not get vaccinated and continue to be a threat to others? OWN that decision. Stop interacting with with others. Leave people alone.

Want to not get vaccinated and continue to be a threat to others AND want to keep forcing others to interact with you? GTFO. Stop imposing your dangerous beliefs on others.


It's like the person who refuses basic hygiene and stinks because they believe it's more natural. Nobody wants to be near that person in line at WDW. Sure, they can follow that path, that's their right. But, they can also be excluded and not interact with anyone else.

If we have reasonable faith in the effectiveness of the vaccines we have received (I do) then those who are not vaccinated aren't imposing anything on us.
Do we complain about those who don't get an annual flu shot?
I usually get mine, don't care whether others do or don't.

 

[mmascari]

If we have reasonable faith in the effectiveness of the vaccines we have received (I do) then those who are not vaccinated aren't imposing anything on us.

Then you don't understand how vaccines work as a public health tool.

For the 1,001st time, this isn't an individual problem, it's a public health one and hence requires a group solution.

If people didn't think the vaccines worked, why would they care if we vaccinated enough people? I mean, beyond the improved 5G performance for everyone.

Do we complain about those who don't get an annual flu shot?

Depends. I don't, since I don't see many people. But, people who work in a hospital certainly hear complaints about those who do not.

I usually get mine, don't care whether others do or don't.

Beyond that, COVID is not the flu. If the measles vaccination rate was this low, I'm willing to bet you would hear complaints.

 

[sullyinMT]

If we have reasonable faith in the effectiveness of the vaccines we have received (I do) then those who are not vaccinated aren't imposing anything on us.
Do we complain about those who don't get an annual flu shot?
I usually get mine, don't care whether others do or don't.

There’s a difference between trusting the vaccine on a personal level (I do and expect either an asymptomatic or mild case should a breakthrough occur), even out to our immediate family (same for my wife and sons now that all 4 of us are fully vaccinated and boosted as appropriate), and recognizing the burdens that the unvaccinated place on society. From healthcare strain, to lost productivity, to lost classroom time as teachers and students fall significantly ill, not donating more doses to underserved nations because the holdouts may finally come around, to continued international travel disruption because of the aforementioned effects, those in the developed world who continue to dig in their heels and not get their shots are dragging the world down with them.

 

[DCBaker]

"An advisory panel for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday said it prefers Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines over Johnson & Johnson’s shot for adults 18 and over, after finding dozens of people developed a rare blood clot condition following J&J vaccination, all of whom were hospitalized and nine of whom died.

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices voted unanimously to recommend Pfizer and Moderna over the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky still has to weigh in on the panel’s recommendation.

The CDC has confirmed 54 cases of people developing blood clots and showing low blood platelet levels, a new condition called thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome that mostly affects younger women. All of the patients were hospitalized, nine people died and 36 were treated in intensive care.

“The TTS case reporting rates following Janssen vaccines is higher than previous estimates in men as well as women in a wider age range,” Dr. Keipp Talbot, chair of the the CDC’s vaccine and safety subgroup, told the advisory panel.

Seven of the patients who died were women and two were men with a median age of 45. Most the people who died had underlying health conditions such as obesity, hypertension and diabetes. The death reporting rate was 0.57 fatalities per million doses administered, according to the CDC."

More at the link below -

CDC recommends Pfizer, Moderna vaccines over J&J shots for adults due to rare blood clot cases

The CDC has confirmed 54 cases of people developing blood clots and showing low blood platelet levels following J&J vaccination.

www.cnbc.com

 

[mmascari]

Brave Sole Resident of Greek Islet Kinaros Gets Vaccinated

The lone inhabitant of Greek islet Kinaros, Irene Katsotourchi, was vaccinated against COVID-19 after a mobile vaccination unit visited her

greekreporter.com

Irene Katsotourchi, the only inhabitant of the Greek islet of Kinaros, was vaccinated against COVID-19 after a mobile vaccination unit finally visited the Dodecanese islet.

Kyra Rini had expressed her desire to be vaccinated against the coronavirus to the postman who delivers mail to Kinaros from the nearby island of Amorgos every two weeks.

Feel good story. She's practically alone with almost no contact with other people, and she STILL asked to be vaccinated and was.

 

[JoeCamel]

Brave Sole Resident of Greek Islet Kinaros Gets Vaccinated

The lone inhabitant of Greek islet Kinaros, Irene Katsotourchi, was vaccinated against COVID-19 after a mobile vaccination unit visited her

greekreporter.com

Feel good story. She's practically alone with almost no contact with other people, and she STILL asked to be vaccinated and was.

I bet the 5G on the island was terrible, she wanted to watch House reruns so now she can.

 

[Incomudro]

"An advisory panel for the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday said it prefers Pfizer and Moderna’s vaccines over Johnson & Johnson’s shot for adults 18 and over, after finding dozens of people developed a rare blood clot condition following J&J vaccination, all of whom were hospitalized and nine of whom died.

The Advisory Committee on Immunization Practices voted unanimously to recommend Pfizer and Moderna over the Johnson & Johnson vaccine. CDC Director Rochelle Walensky still has to weigh in on the panel’s recommendation.

The CDC has confirmed 54 cases of people developing blood clots and showing low blood platelet levels, a new condition called thrombosis with thrombocytopenia syndrome that mostly affects younger women. All of the patients were hospitalized, nine people died and 36 were treated in intensive care.

“The TTS case reporting rates following Janssen vaccines is higher than previous estimates in men as well as women in a wider age range,” Dr. Keipp Talbot, chair of the the CDC’s vaccine and safety subgroup, told the advisory panel.

Seven of the patients who died were women and two were men with a median age of 45. Most the people who died had underlying health conditions such as obesity, hypertension and diabetes. The death reporting rate was 0.57 fatalities per million doses administered, according to the CDC."

More at the link below -

CDC recommends Pfizer, Moderna vaccines over J&J shots for adults due to rare blood clot cases

The CDC has confirmed 54 cases of people developing blood clots and showing low blood platelet levels following J&J vaccination.

www.cnbc.com

I just saw this story.
How can we tell other people that they don't have a right to have similar concerns about the possibility of something similar turning up in Moderna or Phizer vaccine recipients some time in the future?
How can we insist that they must get vaccinated, it's their body - they have the right to make their own risk assessments.

 

[JoeCamel]

I just saw this story.
How can we tell other people that they don't have a right to have similar concerns about the possibility of something similar turning up in Moderna or Phizer vaccine recipients some time in the future?
How can we insist that they must get vaccinated, it's their body - they have the right to make their own risk assessments.

How many???

ETA: Nine, out of how many millions of doses administered????

 

[sullyinMT]

I just saw this story.
How can we tell other people that they don't have a right to have similar concerns about the possibility of something similar turning up in Moderna or Phizer vaccine recipients some time in the future?
How can we insist that they must get vaccinated, it's their body - they have the right to make their own risk assessments.

54 cases from millions of doses. Less risky than COVID infection, tbh (especially since J&J is only authorized in adults so the minimal infection risk to kids is moot here). And there’s a safer and more effective alternative in the mRNA vaccines, which have collectively been given to billions on every continent. That’s why.

 

[Incomudro]

Then you don't understand how vaccines work as a public health tool.

For the 1,001st time, this isn't an individual problem, it's a public health one and hence requires a group solution.

If people didn't think the vaccines worked, why would they care if we vaccinated enough people? I mean, beyond the improved 5G performance for everyone.


Depends. I don't, since I don't see many people. But, people who work in a hospital certainly hear complaints about those who do not.

Beyond that, COVID is not the flu. If the measles vaccination rate was this low, I'm willing to bet you would hear complaints.

I understand how they work as a public health tool, even though these particular vaccines haven't shown themselves to be as effective at that even in countries where the vaccination rate was very high.
You're never going to get compliance much beyond what we have now, particularly with the just released J&J story.

 

[Incomudro]

54 cases from millions of doses. Less risky than COVID infection, tbh (especially since J&J is only authorized in adults so the minimal infection risk to kids is moot here). And there’s a safer and more effective alternative in the mRNA vaccines, which have collectively been given to billions on every continent. That’s why.

Doesn't matter.
A certain portion of the population is going to make their own risk assessment whether we like it or not.
It's their body, they have every right to.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Doesn't matter.
A certain portion of the population is going to make their own risk assessment whether we like it or not.
It's their body, they have every right to.

Why do they have the right to harm others without consequence? What makes them so much more special than everyone else?

 

[Incomudro]

Because we would have seen it by now. Please stop peddling anti-vax rhetoric. It's getting as old as your fat shaming comments.

I'm triple vaxed - jumped the line to get my first shot last April, got my booster a couple of weeks ago - I'll scan my card and display it here if you'd like.
I'm giving you the argument of those who do not want to get vaccinated.
As for "we would have seen it by now" regarding the Phizer and Moderna shots, they'll point to the J&J issue and say we may see problems with the Phizer and Moderna shots a year from now, years from now, decades from now.