Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

"Not everyone who can get vaccinated will" is a fact.

Why?

How about "enough"? Can we get to something like the measles level of vaccination or is that too much to ask for too? That's been falling off in recent years too.

People keep saying we need to reach the finish line before we can live our lives again, but we're never going to reach a finish line.

We need to reach a finish line. The metrics today are not a good finish line. You can live a life just fine, give or take some inconvenience to avoid killing people.

That doesn't mean we should stop moving forward, it just means we don't need to wait for some magical threshold in order to get back to normal. We can get back to normal AND keep pushing vaccines. Saying "we can't get back to normal until everyone is vaccinated" is just admitting "we're never going back to normal."

If getting back to normal means doing the things that will stop the metrics from improving and lead to worse overall outcomes, doesn't feel like a great normal. I mean, when the septic tank broke, it would have been way easier to get back to normal by just dumping downhill instead of fixing it. But, the downhill neighbor would have thought otherwise.

Blame the people that are continuing to circulate COVID for whatever reason. Find ways to exclude them from more and and more of society. That's the way back to normal.

Deniers, fakers, not that bad, hold outs, only protect the old, the weak, the few, I don't give a crap any more. As far as I'm concerned there's only two types of people left. Those who are doing things to drive the metrics better and those who are doing stuff to drive the metrics worse. Those who feel the metrics are good enough today are in the latter group. They may not be anti-vax, but they're certainly not trying to get to a better outcome.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

COVID is less deadly to children than the flu. That is a statement of fact.

COVID is much more deadly to the elderly than the flu. That is a statement of fact.

For fully vaccinated adults, COVID is less deadly than the flu. That is a statement of fact.

Over the past 10 flu seasons (through 2019-2020), the flu killed approximately 359,000 across all age groups in the US. That's 35,900 per year. In the past 19 months, COVID-19 has killed approximately 42,307 people in the 30-39 & 40-49 age groups combined. Over the course of 1 year, that would average out to approximately 26,720 COVID-19 deaths for people aged 30-49. That's more than 74% of the total flu deaths across all age groups in an average year. Add in the 18-29 age group and the total COVID-19 death average to approximately 29,345 per year - or 81.74% of average annual flu deaths. So how is the flu more deadly that COVID-19 for fully vaccinated adults? Are you only accounting for people with a COVID-19 vaccine but NOT the flu vaccine? If not, then the math disagrees with your statement - even if we were to assume that the majority of flu deaths occur within that age group. If so, then you're comparing apples to trumpets.

COVID-19 deaths by age U.S. 2023 | Statista

Between the beginning of January 2020 and June 14, 2023, of the 1,134,641 deaths caused by COVID-19 in the United States, around 307,169 had occurred among those aged 85 years and older.

www.statista.com

Past Seasons Estimated Influenza Disease Burden | CDC

These page includes information about the estimated burden of influenza from past seasons, including tables of the estimated influenza disease burden (and 95% credible interval [Cr I]) by age group.

www.cdc.gov

 

[Andrew C]

Not in regards to hospitalizations and deaths...


Not a statement of fact.

680 kids under age 18 have died from COVID. During the same timeframe (March 2020-present). During the entire 2019/2020 flu season and 2020/2021 flu season (which includes about 5 months prior to COVID starting to impact the US), 200 children died.

Can you explain to me how 3.4x more deaths makes it less deadly?

Well, we didn't really have a 2020-2021 flu season due to COVID. Also, flu seasons are relatively short (just a few months) and is less transmissible than COVID. Yet... 2018-19 season was 136 pediatric deaths. 2019-2020 was 188 pediatric deaths (I think I have those years right). With that being said, people can make their own judgments. You can consider number of pediatric flu cases each year compared to pediatric COVID cases during a similar time period, hospitalizations..etc. Depends how far one wants to drill down.

 

[mikejs78]

we didn't really have a 2020-2021 flu season due to COVID.

And why is that?

 

[Andrew C]

That's 35,900 per year

That's really 35,900 in a 3 to 4 month window. We put up with a lot of flu deaths...

Anyways, it is difficult to cleanly compare with COVID.

 

[Andrew C]

And why is that?

People avoided each other? Many schools were closed? It doesn't transmit as well as COVID?

 

[Chip Chipperson]

If you were vaccinated. Yes.

Of course. But I'm not speaking about the individual level. I'm talking about the general public. Isn't it surprising that FL had a higher death count in the summer of 2021 than they had in the summer of 2020 despite the widespread availability of vaccines? The state's leadership has tried to prevent local governments and private businesses from enacting measures that would help reduce the spread of the virus and encourage vaccination, even going so far as to sue those who go attempt to enact policies in the best interest of the public's health. In one breath, the governor is saying people should get the vaccine. In the next breath, he's forbidding businesses from mandating vaccinations while the pandemic hit record highs in his state and vaccination levels were lagging. He's fined local governments for mandating vaccines for employees. He's fought and lost in court when cruise lines wanted to implement vaccine requirements for passengers (and is apparently still having the cruise lines "investigated" for violating an order that has an injunction preventing its enforcement, which seems a bit like an attempt to bully them into vacating their policy or an attempt to illegally fine them for maintaining the policy despite the court's ruling should he eventually win when the last appeal is heard).

 

[Chip Chipperson]

That's really 35,900 in a 3 to 4 month window. We put up with a lot of flu deaths...

Anyways, it is difficult to cleanly compare with COVID.

Isn't that part of the issue with COVID-19? It doesn't stop for the seasons the way other illnesses do, which makes it harder to control. People can get a head start on the flu if they get vaccinated before the season kicks into high gear. With COVID-19, there is no "season," just waves that roll through over and over throughout the year.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

And why is that?

Because we shut down the damn universe.

Life expectancy in the United States is 79. The median age of COVID deaths was 78. So 750,000 people lost, on average, one year of their lives.

Meanwhile, 330,000,000 million people each lost a year of their lives to lockdowns and depression.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

People avoided each other? Many schools were closed? It doesn't transmit as well as COVID?

Those are all possible contributors. We also didn't have the level of international travel that usually brings the virus to us from places where it hits at different times than it hits here.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Because we shut down the damn universe.

Life expectancy in the United States is 79. The median age of COVID deaths was 78. So 750,000 people lost, on average, one year of their lives.

Meanwhile, 330,000,000 million people each lost a year of their lives to lockdowns and depression.

Over 179,000 COVID-19 deaths were in people under the age of 65. That fact combined with the CDC's excess death chart suggests that plenty of people lost much more than just 1 year of their lives when they died. And those 179,00 deaths were mostly lonely deaths with no family able to visit them to say goodbye and hug them one last time. And plenty of others died from other causes in hospitals that were locked down and so they also died lonely deaths with no family able to visit them, too. I think we'd all like to prevent a repeat of that anywhere in the country even if it's not happening everywhere in the country. Part of FL experienced that over the summer when that situation should have been in the rearview mirror.

 

[mikejs78]

People avoided each other? Many schools were closed? It doesn't transmit as well as COVID?

Because we shut down the damn universe.

Life expectancy in the United States is 79. The median age of COVID deaths was 78. So 750,000 people lost, on average, one year of their lives.

Meanwhile, 330,000,000 million people each lost a year of their lives to lockdowns and depression.

Aha. So if Flu was drastically reduced because of mitigation measures - doesn't it stand to reason that COVID was also reduced due to these same mitigation measures? That if not for the mitigation measures, the death toll would have been a *lot* higher, for kids, for adults, for everyone?

 

[Andrew C]

doesn't it stand to reason that COVID was also reduced due to these same mitigation measures?

Who said it wasn’t? The problem, as others have mentioned, is that the flu is seasonal (once a year for a few months) while Covid, although it comes in waves, is not. So mitigation for Covid only delays the inevitable. I’m not interested in mitigating now that I’m vaccinated and others can as well. Sorry.

 

[CaptainAmerica]

Aha. So if Flu was drastically reduced because of mitigation measures - doesn't it stand to reason that COVID was also reduced due to these same mitigation measures? That if not for the mitigation measures, the death toll would have been a *lot* higher, for kids, for adults, for everyone?

Yes, when mitigation measures consist of shutting down every school and restaurant in the country, mitigation measures reduce transmission/cases/deaths. Would you like to shut down every school and restaurant in the country? If not, why not? What is your limiting principle?

My claim has never been "mitigation is entirely ineffective at slowing transmission," my claim is that "mitigation comes with negative consequences that should be weighed against the benefit of slowed transmission."

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Yes, when mitigation measures consist of shutting down every school and restaurant in the country, mitigation measures reduce transmission/cases/deaths. Would you like to shut down every school and restaurant in the country? If not, why not? What is your limiting principle?

My claim has never been "mitigation is entirely ineffective at slowing transmission," my claim is that "mitigation comes with negative consequences that should be weighed against the benefit of slowed transmission."

Every school and restaurant was shut down in late-2020/early-2021?

 

[lazyboy97o]

He's fought and lost in court when cruise lines wanted to implement vaccine requirements for passengers (and is apparently still having the cruise lines "investigated" for violating an order that has an injunction preventing its enforcement, which seems a bit like an attempt to bully them into vacating their policy or an attempt to illegally fine them for maintaining the policy despite the court's ruling should he eventually win when the last appeal is heard).

The injunction won by Norwegian Cruise Line is not a final ruling and not why the other cruise lines began requiring vaccinations. Instead it was the Bahamas requiring vaccination for entry, even to private islands. The cruise lines are being investigated for complying with the entry requirements of another country that is the country of registration for many of the ships.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

The injunction won by Norwegian Cruise Line is not a final ruling and not why the other cruise lines began requiring vaccinations. Instead it was the Bahamas requiring vaccination for entry, even to private islands. The cruise lines are being investigated for complying with the entry requirements of another country that is the country of registration for many of the ships.

I know it's not a final ruling, which is why I referred to it as an injunction. Regardless of who ultimately prevails, the injunction prevents the state from enforcing the ban until a court rules in its favor, so there is no legal basis for ordering an investigation because there is no violation to investigate.

 

[celluloid]

Because we shut down the damn universe.

Life expectancy in the United States is 79. The median age of COVID deaths was 78. So 750,000 people lost, on average, one year of their lives.

Meanwhile, 330,000,000 million people each lost a year of their lives to lockdowns and depression.

You know advancements in quality of care, including vaccinations and preventing spread of disease for immune compromised would also raise the average life expectancy age.

 

[sullyinMT]

The injunction won by Norwegian Cruise Line is not a final ruling and not why the other cruise lines began requiring vaccinations. Instead it was the Bahamas requiring vaccination for entry, even to private islands. The cruise lines are being investigated for complying with the entry requirements of another country that is the country of registration for many of the ships.

Which is, perhaps, an even more asinine basis for the “investigation.” Whatever the reason, it is a bully tactic when the courts and foreign authorities have sided with the vaccine requirements or, at least, allowed them to stand.

 

[matt9112]

But when the Delta wave hit, states with a lesser vaccination rates and an abhorrence to mitigation (e.g., "masks!!"), got hit hard. Unvaccinated people's rate of catching Delta was many times more than the breakthroughs of those vaccinated.

In the Alpha wave, NJ and NY got hit hard. And for the longest time, they were the leaders in deaths per capita.

But with the Delta wave, the Southern states got hit hard. Mississippi and Alabama have surpassed NJ in deaths per capita. Louisiana and Arizona have surpasses NY. Arkansas is number 7. And guess which state has the 8th most number of deaths per capita now?

FLORIDA is #8 most deaths per capita.

And... you're thankful you live in Florida?

Florida's death rate during this last Delta wave was 350 deaths *per day.* It's now still over 100 deaths per day. At this rate, Florida will pass NY for total number of deaths per capita.

If only more people... or *everyone* got vaccinated, then that last Delta wave would have been a small blip rather than this...

View attachment 597652

[Yes, vaccinated people *can* die from breakthroughs... but 12 times less than the unvaccinated. It is just stupid to not get vaccinated.]


Florida deaths...
View attachment 597653

Exactly. Our Delta wave, especially when you look at deaths, was significantly reduced here in CT. Only in Florida can folks be proud of

View attachment 597536
Do people think before they type? Late summer was a disaster in FL. You have wonderful vaccines and they managed their worst wave of the pandemic. Congratulations?

Summer was fine for me.

But when the Delta wave hit, states with a lesser vaccination rates and an abhorrence to mitigation (e.g., "masks!!"), got hit hard. Unvaccinated people's rate of catching Delta was many times more than the breakthroughs of those vaccinated.

In the Alpha wave, NJ and NY got hit hard. And for the longest time, they were the leaders in deaths per capita.

But with the Delta wave, the Southern states got hit hard. Mississippi and Alabama have surpassed NJ in deaths per capita. Louisiana and Arizona have surpasses NY. Arkansas is number 7. And guess which state has the 8th most number of deaths per capita now?

FLORIDA is #8 most deaths per capita.

And... you're thankful you live in Florida?

Florida's death rate during this last Delta wave was 350 deaths *per day.* It's now still over 100 deaths per day. At this rate, Florida will pass NY for total number of deaths per capita.

If only more people... or *everyone* got vaccinated, then that last Delta wave would have been a small blip rather than this...

View attachment 597652

[Yes, vaccinated people *can* die from breakthroughs... but 12 times less than the unvaccinated. It is just stupid to not get vaccinated.]


Florida deaths...
View attachment 597653

You know i have never said you shouldn't get vaxxed....like ever....i just put personal choice above the death rate. More so my comment is related to life...not death....how buisnesss are open how things are growing again. This year will be huge.