Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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CaptainAmerica

Premium Member

BuddyThomas

Well-Known Member
You are correct. I am not a doctor or a scientist, I do not know how the COVID vaccine works. I just try to understand by ingesting all the information that is out there.
It is crystal clear that you are not a doctor or scientist and that you do not know how the COVID vaccine works, so since you have just acknowledged that fact, why don’t you stop trolling this thread with misinformation and use your time for something more productive?
 

Chip Chipperson

Well-Known Member
Because I Trust The Science ™️. Isn't that what we're supposed to do?



Are you arguing that because the virus may become less dangerous at some point down the road that we shouldn't take measures to prevent the spread now while it IS still dangerous? Isn't that sort of like a driver not wearing a seatbelt in 1985 because they assumed cars would be safer in the future?
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
And it's been quite some time since any of those diseases you mentioned killed the number of people in this country that COVID-19 has killed. The flu also tends to be seasonal whereas COVID-19 has kept spreading and killing regardless of what the calendar says. We're at 19 months and counting where the number of deaths has exceeded the expected number every single week. From January 2017 until March 2020, there were 6 weeks total where deaths exceeded the expected total and those all occurred over the 6 weeks spanning late-December 2017 through late-January 2018 - and that was the deadliest flu season dating back to the 2010-2011 flu season (the oldest data available on the CDC's table). The estimated death count from that flue season? 61,000. So this virus is not just like the flu and certainly not just like a common cold.

And anyone who might think that COVID-19 deaths are overcounted, please feel free to explain the coincidental timing of excess deaths and this virus spreading throughout the US.


You seem to be addressing me as if I'm a COVID-hoaxer or anti-vaxxer. I assure you, I'm neither.
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
Because I Trust The Science ™️ . Isn't that what we're supposed to do?


So we shouldn’t try because of a guess? More contagious diseases have been contained, eliminated and eradicated. To not even try is just pathetic.
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
Are you arguing that because the virus may become less dangerous at some point down the road that we shouldn't take measures to prevent the spread now while it IS still dangerous? Isn't that sort of like a driver not wearing a seatbelt in 1985 because they assumed cars would be safer in the future?
No, I'm arguing that a universally accessible and highly effective vaccine has already made the virus less dangerous in the present, not "some point down the road."
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
So we shouldn’t try because of a guess? More contagious diseases have been contained, eliminated and eradicated. To not even try is just pathetic.
What do you think I'm suggesting? Where did you get me saying "we shouldn't try"? What does "try" even mean in this context?

If by "try" you mean we should continue to get as many people vaccinated as possible, hell yes we should try. If by "try" you mean we should force every human interaction to be on opposite sides of a plexiglass barrier and force kindergartners to wear masks in perpetuity, no, I think those measures have run their course.
 

mikejs78

Well-Known Member
Do people think before they type? Late summer was a disaster in FL. You have wonderful vaccines and they managed their worst wave of the pandemic. Congratulations?

About a month ago I did an analysis of state-by-state data to figure out metrics from June 1, 2020 and beyond. I took out March, April, and May of 2020 because at that time, we had no idea how to treat the disease. In those 3 months we learned that some thigns we were doing were killing patients (e.g. intubating them too early, etc.). Here's what I found:

From June 2020 onwards, the states with the top 5 death rates per capita have been:
Mississippi
Alabama
Louisiana
Arizona
Florida

Enough to stop surges that still occur in states deemed to have a high vax rate? Not sure what that is yet, however. I’m not making any direct comparisons to Florida here. I just think we have lowered our expectations as to what is considered a high vax rate. Or we need to readjust our expectations because even states that have the highest rates isn’t a good enough.

No high vax state has had a surge comparable to the low-vax states. The curves have been a lot smaller, the hospitalization and death rates have been far, far lower. Vaccines work, even at the 65-75% range. I imagine once we get to 80-85% it will crater.

I really do think its the perceived double standard about the mandate. Before the mandate, these folks were valued public servants, after the mandate, vaccinate or leave, you can be easily replaced.

Cities with the mandate will lose folks, but its a small percentage.

People can be heroic and then do something unheroic. Heroism isn't a permanent marker. A person is heroic because they do heroic things. There are many examples in history of heros who have made unheroic decisions.

Not getting a vaccine as a first responder is an unheroic decision. As would a Army Ranger with a congressional medal of honor for heroism who deserted his unit or sold secrets to an enemy.

There is no ending. It is going to be around forever. Live with it. Get vaccinated every other week if you desire. Buy a biohazard suit if you want and wear it whenever you leave home.

Come to grips with the fact that COVID will be around for the rest of your life. Stop wanting people who can deal with the "risk" to alter thier lives for a false sense of security.

There is an ending. When enough people get vaccinated. (And no one said every other week). It's people who are not getting vaccinated who are keeping this damn thing going.

Disagree 100%. We're at the point where vaccines are available to all and you can choose to do whatever you feel is necessary to hide from COVID. Those of us who don't care about the risk and want to live our short lives to the fullest shouldn't be asked to alter our lives at all anymore.

No, because your decision not to get vaccinated impacts others and prevents this damn pandemic from ending.

Those who refuse vaccines *and are sick* should stay home, just like people *who are sick* should have always stayed home. "Don't go into crowds of people when you're ill" is not a new standard of social behavior that started in March 2020. People always should have been doing that.

Presymptomatic transmission (as opposed to asymptomatic) is actually a pretty large thing among unvaccinated individuals. For vaccinated breakthroughs the time of transmission tends to correlate with symptoms.

Our healthcare system is not overstretched.

It was overstretched in many areas of the south this summer.

No, transmission from mild and asymptomatic cases is not precisely zero, that's true. But it mitigates risk to a level that I'm perfectly comfortable with as we pivot to the endemic phase of this virus.

It would be great if 100% of people were vaccinated. It would be great if vaccines were 100% effective. But neither of those are true and never will be. Zero-COVID is not a viable path forward, and we need to stop rejecting every proposed return to normal scenario with "BUT THERE WILL BE TRANSMISSION!" Yeah. There will be. We're just going to have to deal with it.

Why are we accepting that as a society? There's a multiplier effect on vaccinations, even with less than perfect vaccines (which none are).

Everything you just said is true of the flu, common cold, and ten thousand other communicable diseases that are endemic in the population. COVID is not unique in that regard, it's just the next thing to add to the list.

The flu, common cold are not nearly as deadly or damaging. And other communicable diseases we mandate vaccines for.

The virus might not disappear completely but we can severely limit it's impact if we get enough of the population vaccinated.
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
About a month ago I did an analysis of state-by-state data to figure out metrics from June 1, 2020 and beyond. I took out March, April, and May of 2020 because at that time, we had no idea how to treat the disease. In those 3 months we learned that some thigns we were doing were killing patients (e.g. intubating them too early, etc.). Here's what I found:

From June 2020 onwards, the states with the top 5 death rates per capita have been:
Mississippi
Alabama
Louisiana
Arizona
Florida



No high vax state has had a surge comparable to the low-vax states. The curves have been a lot smaller, the hospitalization and death rates have been far, far lower. Vaccines work, even at the 65-75% range. I imagine once we get to 80-85% it will crater.



People can be heroic and then do something unheroic. Heroism isn't a permanent marker. A person is heroic because they do heroic things. There are many examples in history of heros who have made unheroic decisions.

Not getting a vaccine as a first responder is an unheroic decision. As would a Army Ranger with a congressional medal of honor for heroism who deserted his unit or sold secrets to an enemy.



There is an ending. When enough people get vaccinated. (And no one said every other week). It's people who are not getting vaccinated who are keeping this damn thing going.



No, because your decision not to get vaccinated impacts others and prevents this damn pandemic from ending.



Presymptomatic transmission (as opposed to asymptomatic) is actually a pretty large thing among unvaccinated individuals. For vaccinated breakthroughs the time of transmission tends to correlate with symptoms.



It was overstretched in many areas of the south this summer.



Why are we accepting that as a society? There's a multiplier effect on vaccinations, even with less than perfect vaccines (which none are).



The flu, common cold are not nearly as deadly or damaging. And other communicable diseases we mandate vaccines for.

The virus might not disappear completely but we can severely limit it's impact if we get enough of the population vaccinated.
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

I now have five different people accusing me of saying we shouldn't get people vaccinated, which I never said.
 

mikejs78

Well-Known Member
No, I'm arguing that a universally accessible and highly effective vaccine has already made the virus less dangerous in the present, not "some point down the road."
And then you have places like the South where not enough people are vaccinated, so it taxes the healthcare system.

What happens when, because of the refusal of people to vaccinate, that a hospital bed isn't available for the heart attack victim, or someone injured in a car accident?
 

mikejs78

Well-Known Member
I feel like I'm taking crazy pills.

I now have five different people accusing me of saying we shouldn't get people vaccinated, which I never said.
I know you're not anti-vax, but I think it was because you responded in such a way earlier where it seemed you were taking the "the vaccine is available now, so everyone for themselves" approach.
 

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
Because I Trust The Science ™️. Isn't that what we're supposed to do?


“The endgame for covid-19 won’t look like smallpox or measles. It has features that make it unlikely to be eradicated, including its high level of transmissibility, the ease with which its symptoms can be mistaken for other common respiratory infections, and the ability of the virus to be transmitted during asymptomatic or pre-symptomatic periods.”
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
I know you're not anti-vax, but I think it was because you responded in such a way earlier where it seemed you were taking the "the vaccine is available now, so everyone for themselves" approach.
I want people to state their end conditions for life returning to normal. I want them to say when they'd take the masks of the three year olds standing in line for Dumbo. When can a kindergarten teacher smile at her students as she welcomes them into the classroom? When can I fly from Boston to Honolulu without a piece of porous fabric strapped to my face for *11 hours*? When will we demand that companies *cough* stop using the pandemic as an excuse to continue offering poor service?
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
Everything you just said is true of the flu, common cold, and ten thousand other communicable diseases that are endemic in the population. COVID is not unique in that regard, it's just the next thing to add to the list.
The flu doesn't kill 400,000 people every year. But, fine, that's below the number where you're worried. Good to know.

I'm sorry to hear that. And that may have been a valid point if we were still "prior to vaccines." But we aren't, so it isn't.
That's not how vaccines work to protect the public.

This is a group project and needs a group solution. If the group doesn't get the vaccinated percentage high enough the risk to even vaccinated people will be significantly higher. Both in the short term and the longer term by allowing large uncontrolled spread to continue.

It's true that in the short term, the risk to unvaccinated people is 10 times worse. However, both are relative risk unvaccinated vs vaccinated, not some absolute risk protection.

The vaccine greatly reduces someone's risk. The vaccine greatly reduces the spread. It doesn't eliminate risk in the absolute sense. Which means, if the unvaccinated group keeps the spread and risk level high enough, even the reduced vaccinated risk will still be a large absolute number.

Look at any of the unvaccinated vs vaccinated graphs. They go up and down as a pair. Sure, the vaccinated one is way lower, but it's still going up and down dragged along by the unvaccinated pulling it along.

No we couldn't! That was never possible!
Way to give up before trying.

I suppose I should just cancel my next WDW trip now. Since there's a large chance I'm not going to get on ROTR, might as well not even try.



I want to get the vaccinated percentage as high as possible and high enough to dramatically reduce spread not because of some innate care for those who have chosen not to vaccinate already (I mean I should care about them, it's wrong that I don't), but for purely selfish reasons. The absolute risk to me in the short term is roughly 10 times less than the risk to them. By reducing their risk, I reduce my own risk too. In the longer term, I'm more worried that 10 times less is going to be reduced slowly until there is no reduced risk at all.
 

Andrew C

You know what's funny?
The flu doesn't kill 400,000 people every year. But, fine, that's below the number where you're worried. Good to know.
No. But it has killed thousands each year for decades. Hopefully we get Covid to those levels as well. Then we would be more comfortable, right? Not eradicated but at an acceptable level?
 

lazyboy97o

Well-Known Member
No. But it has killed thousands each year for decades. Hopefully we get Covid to those levels as well. Then we would be more comfortable, right? Not eradicated but at an acceptable level?
Even at flu levels we’d have problems. The flu already fills up hospitals in the winter. Just doubling that number would cause problems, the intensity and length of illness just makes it worse.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
I want people to state their end conditions for life returning to normal. I want them to say when they'd take the masks of the three year olds standing in line for Dumbo. When can a kindergarten teacher smile at her students as she welcomes them into the classroom? When can I fly from Boston to Honolulu without a piece of porous fabric strapped to my face for *11 hours*? When will we demand that companies *cough* stop using the pandemic as an excuse to continue offering poor service?
One way to fly from the East Coast non stop to Hawaii wearing a mask is pick a window seat, take 10mg of Melatonin 30 min before take off and you will be melting into your seat and fast asleep and before you know it you will be landing in Honolulu. The mask should be a non issue .
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
Because I Trust The Science ™️. Isn't that what we're supposed to do?


Do you think we're their now?

That in the US the rate of COVID has gotten down to what those articles describe as endemic and under control?

There's no reason that in the US we cannot get COVID down to the same levels as measles.
 

CaptainAmerica

Premium Member
Even at flu levels we’d have problems. The flu already fills up hospitals in the winter. Just doubling that number would cause problems, the intensity and length of illness just makes it worse.
What do you suggest? Masking and distancing and work-from-home and crappy customer service in perpetuity?
 
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