Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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thomas998

Well-Known Member
I would take the PTO later also. When things get back to normal, the discretionary spending market will not the gang busters as it was since I think Americans will double think about many purchases moving forward since some of their 401Ks have been hit hard or a good amount may still be unemployed.
May isn't the right word. You can guarantee that there are going to be a high unemployment rate. People won't be able to go back to business as usual because for the ones that have been living on the edge they will have to slowly start paying back what they put on credit or pay back the bills they have now been ignoring and that means spending will be impacted which is a domino effect on the service industry where places won't need as many workers as they used to have for a while... maybe for a long while.
 

Patcheslee

Well-Known Member
All states are different. I had the misfortune of being laid off in a state where I was hosed out of unemployment because the amount of my severance package impacted when I could apply and when I could apply my later application meant the time I was working and the company paying the unemployment insurance was outside the window for their formula. Unemployment sounds like a good deal and you never really look at the detail of it until you need it... but it can often have some very strange formulas that can bit the person in the backside.
Agree only unemployment I'd ever had to take was right after DD11 was born and 2 weeks after maternity leave was over, the formula was being based on time my pay was 80% while on maternity leave so had a year of living on a $190 check. Somehow 2 month off vs the previous 10 months = almost nothing.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
May isn't the right word. You can guarantee that there are going to be a high unemployment rate. People won't be able to go back to business as usual because for the ones that have been living on the edge they will have to slowly start paying back what they put on credit or pay back the bills they have now been ignoring and that means spending will be impacted which is a domino effect on the service industry where places won't need as many workers as they used to have for a while... maybe for a long while.
You can add that affected individuals may be trading in their cars for cash, having garage sales, selling house and personal items on ebay, frequent pawn shops to sell personal belongings all to get much needed cash to survive.
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
Agree only unemployment I'd ever had to take was right after DD11 was born and 2 weeks after maternity leave was over, the formula was being based on time my pay was 80% while on maternity leave so had a year of living on a $190 check. Somehow 2 month off vs the previous 10 months = almost nothing.
I'm not sure if it's because my husband is out of work specifically because of the virus, but his weekly benefit is higher than I expected. They're also making an allowance based on dependents ($50 for 2 kids), which must also be new. (Last time I collected was in 2009-ish).
 

JoeT63

Well-Known Member
My friend's cousin, who knew a guy who dropped out of med school...MED SCHOOL!...read something on the internet that said that hysterical panic will continue for the foreseeable future. AAGGHH!! HOARD STUFF!!

Fear of unknown is as scary as it gets, for sure. But it's still just that...the unknown. I prefer to wait for facts and then deal with those. Please don't misunderstand, my heart absolutely goes out to those who are sick. And perhaps it won't be long until someone close to me becomes infected. I have a kid on each coast, and another who lives in Europe. They're all in the cross-hairs. But the nutty speculation and lack of rumor-control are not helping.

Disney-philes, in my experience, are among the most thoughtful and compassionate people out there. We relish a child's smile. We love hearing stories about the happiness of others. I truly hope we don't lose that in these trying times. Stay compassionate. Stay empathetic. And please try not to pass along things not proven to be real or true. And try to not be afraid. We're all in it together!
 

Jwink

Well-Known Member
"Destroy the economy" is too strong a word. A ton of foreclosures and even some bank failures and corporate bankruptcies is not the end of the world. It happened in 2008-2009.

Banks, corporations and individuals who are not severely overextended will survive.

Even if a corporation severely overextended itself by borrowing billions of dollars to do stock buybacks (not coincidentally enriching the company executives) ... if the corporation has a strong, profitable business then even if the company is forced into bankruptcy by its creditors (a very normal and routine thing), nearly all of the employees will keep their jobs. To me, Disney is an example of a fundamentally strong company even if they were sucked into the borrow-and-buyback vortex.

If a corporation has too much debt and was never profitable then when it is inevitably forced into bankruptcy, of course most employees' jobs won't survive. Painful but inevitable. It does free resources and money to be re-allocated to "actually profitable" areas however. Examples of "never profitable" companies tend to be the unicorn darlings with cult-like followers that were far, far overvalued based on dreams and hype.

Likewise, municipalities and states that went far into debt with a lot of unsustainable spending policies will be forced to restructure sooner rather than later because of the severe boot to their rear end that Corona is bringing. Whereas other jurisdictions which are run more efficiently will be able to secure enough credit to survive 18 months of reduced tax revenues, and will attract new investment as soon as business revives.

I won't say anything about individuals except that some people have practically zero debt and significant savings, and others have borrowed up the wazoo and saved nothing. For one of those groups Corona is a disaster, for the other group it is a temporary setback.
I’m in the group where it’s a disaster. We had a ton of debt and now we have medical bills from my daughter’s birth. All we had saved is gone. Back at square one paycheck to paycheck. Does that make us less worth of keeping the home and cars we worked so hard for for years? Just because someone like you shrugs your shoulders at us? 78% of Americans are paycheck to paycheck
 

thomas998

Well-Known Member
Agree only unemployment I'd ever had to take was right after DD11 was born and 2 weeks after maternity leave was over, the formula was being based on time my pay was 80% while on maternity leave so had a year of living on a $190 check. Somehow 2 month off vs the previous 10 months = almost nothing.
Yep, if I were in a position where I thought I might be unemployed and having to collect the unemployment insurance I would start looking into how it is calculated right now before I needed. Nothing is worse than finding out you got shafted by the formula when you are actually counting on it. Not that you can do much about it... but as the person with PTO was thinking, if you thought the odds of being unemployed were high and you were going to have to apply those PTO days against the unemployment, well it might be better to use the PTO now instead of later.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
Except there’s a lot more then 2 groups, kiddo.

Seriously...

This situation really has little to do with how much of a nest egg you have. Surviving on your savings is good and dandy... but that alone doesn't solve the problem of your job getting eliminated because of this, and the difficulty of getting a new one in a down market where unemployment is largest it's been in decades, your investments being halved, your retirement savings being decimated (and what it will take to restock that), etc.

People just don't get this isn't going to be like 'turning the lights back on...' - the damage done will impact businesses going forward, not just what happened in the 'dark period'
 

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
Seriously...

This situation really has little to do with how much of a nest egg you have. Surviving on your savings is good and dandy... but that alone doesn't solve the problem of your job getting eliminated because of this, and the difficulty of getting a new one in a down market where unemployment is largest it's been in decades, your investments being halved, your retirement savings being decimated (and what it will take to restock that), etc.

People just don't get this isn't going to be like 'turning the lights back on...' - the damage done will impact businesses going forward, not just what happened in the 'dark period'
#truestory
 

Josh Hendy

Well-Known Member
Except there’s a lot more then 2 groups, kiddo.
Which part of my post says or implies that there are no other situations except for those two? (over indebted and debt free). I said "some" and "others". Not "some" and "all others".

We're not going to solve anything here or even get along reasonably if people insist on misreading and misinterpreting what other people post, and replying with smart-alecky put-downs. Just sayin'.
 

thomas998

Well-Known Member
My friend's cousin, who knew a guy who dropped out of med school...MED SCHOOL!...read something on the internet that said that hysterical panic will continue for the foreseeable future. AAGGHH!! HOARD STUFF!!

Fear of unknown is as scary as it gets, for sure. But it's still just that...the unknown. I prefer to wait for facts and then deal with those. Please don't misunderstand, my heart absolutely goes out to those who are sick. And perhaps it won't be long until someone close to me becomes infected. I have a kid on each coast, and another who lives in Europe. They're all in the cross-hairs. But the nutty speculation and lack of rumor-control are not helping.

Disney-philes, in my experience, are among the most thoughtful and compassionate people out there. We relish a child's smile. We love hearing stories about the happiness of others. I truly hope we don't lose that in these trying times. Stay compassionate. Stay empathetic. And please try not to pass along things not proven to be real or true. And try to not be afraid. We're all in it together!
And for those that have a higher anxiety level when hearing or reading the doom and gloom I would suggest you just turn channels or read something else. Most anything you read or hear about the virus right now isn't going to be rainbows and unicorns.. that won't happen until someone announce they found a vaccine or cure, which is probably a long ways off.

Not that you will listen to that advice... god knows I've tried to get my wife to turn off the TV news, but she's obsessed with and only seems to pick up the bad news in everything they say.
 

thomas998

Well-Known Member
Seriously...

This situation really has little to do with how much of a nest egg you have. Surviving on your savings is good and dandy... but that alone doesn't solve the problem of your job getting eliminated because of this, and the difficulty of getting a new one in a down market where unemployment is largest it's been in decades, your investments being halved, your retirement savings being decimated (and what it will take to restock that), etc.

People just don't get this isn't going to be like 'turning the lights back on...' - the damage done will impact businesses going forward, not just what happened in the 'dark period'
Very true. I had a significant amount of my 401k in what would have normally been considered safe but low growth stocks... You know utilities that the like that are fairly safe... Well they got hammed big time I've looking at some investments that lost 70% of their value.. Of course they look like great investments on paper because the dividend yield is double digits... but it still makes me worry that it could years before they get close to the original value.
 

thomas998

Well-Known Member
And now this... maybe it will be open sooner than May.

I doubt they go back to business as usual from the start. My guess is it will be a gradual loosening of the rules. I expect large gatherings will still be banned. Not surprised if only fast food places below a certain capacity will be allowed to open to begin with... and still don't see them allowing mass gatherings anytime soon.
 

flynnibus

Premium Member
Very true. I had a significant amount of my 401k in what would have normally been considered safe but low growth stocks... You know utilities that the like that are fairly safe... Well they got hammed big time I've looking at some investments that lost 70% of their value.. Of course they look like great investments on paper because the dividend yield is double digits... but it still makes me worry that it could years before they get close to the original value.

Yup... people say "stocks will come back.." - yes they will, but time will not. That means people planning for retirement will have to save more going forward than they had before. That constrains discretionary spending... for the people that can even afford to restock the savings. Many will simply struggle forward hoping for the best with what was left.. leading to a huge swath of people with financial problems in the future.
 

Lilofan

Well-Known Member
If people who live in FL think Florida is overcrowded, then they should think about it again. When families young or old lose pretty much everything during this time, next move - to the Sunshine State.
 

thomas998

Well-Known Member
Yup... people say "stocks will come back.." - yes they will, but time will not. That means people planning for retirement will have to save more going forward than they had before. That constrains discretionary spending... for the people that can even afford to restock the savings. Many will simply struggle forward hoping for the best with what was left.. leading to a huge swath of people with financial problems in the future.
Or being forced to work longer than they wanted. A neighbor was a complete fool in his 401K and put every dime of it into the company he worked for.... well when the company filed for bankruptcy and did a restructure he suddenly found that the value of all those share he had vanished in a puff of smoke... He had planned on retiring the year they did their re-org... well he's still working there today when he had planned on retiring years ago.
 

fradz

Well-Known Member
Thank you!
Just gonna make one text that answers all questions:

It started as a mild throat annoyance. Just thought I caught a cold while hiking the week prior. ---- I was actually on a trip with my gf from 22/02 to 01/03 in Paris (including Disney, the Louvre, the Eiffel Tower, all the touristy stuff). We then went to Mont Saint Michel (which I've recommended to you guys before!) and to Etretat, where the hiking happened and it was extremely cold and windy. She is fine, and 1500 miles away, and somehow didn't get the virus. I might have caught it back here in Belgium. Had to be between the 1st and 6th of March then, but am not sure how and when. ----
Then it was a little more painful but I didn't think anything of it. I coughed a bit but not much at all. I bought a thermometer and started monitoring my temperature as I knew it was the most common symptom. Nothing abnormal so I figured it was whatever. When it went downwards in my respiratory system, I started to worry. I didn't go to my doctor (due to the contagious nature of the thing), I called her and asked my closed ones to bring me some stuff I typically use to treat respiratory problems.

Just because I was super careful and knowing that my touristy trip put me at risk, after practicing social distancing since my return on the 1st; I put myself in self-quarantine as of 6th of March, and worked from home since then. Before that, I stocked up on all the regular stuff I need. Now my friends go groceries shopping for me and drop me stuff in front of the house.

I'm at home (I live alone); I feel very tired and weak but am not in need of respiratory assistance (yet), so no need to crowd the hospitals. Due to my medical history, I own a nebulizer aerosol, I tried some products that my doctor ordered for me, but they don't really make me feel better. I now have a mild fever, which is not very annoying. Also diarrhea since recently... The most annoying symptom, by far, is the burning lungs. Breathing hurts (most of the time, sometimes I feel ok) and makes it very exhausting so I'm very tired. If I talk for too long, I also get out of breath. If I move too fast, I get out of breath.

I drink tea and breathe the vapors of eucalyptus leaves in boiling water, it eases my respiration and makes the pain stop for a while. :)

I couldn't get a regular test at the time, as there are not enough kits anymore, but I got examined by a virologist specialized in all these SARS things and he confirmed I had it.
The burning lungs and everything that comes with it is generally a dead giveaway anyway.

I'm feeling better today, my lungs hurt but more like "tired-hurt", not "burning-hurt". I think that's a good sign? ... Finally :)
 
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