flynnibus
Premium Member
"Destroy the economy" is too strong a word. A ton of foreclosures and even some bank failures and corporate bankruptcies is not the end of the world. It happened in 2008-2009.
Banks, corporations and individuals who are not severely overextended will survive.
Even if a corporation severely overextended itself by borrowing billions of dollars to do stock buybacks (not coincidentally enriching the company executives) ... if the corporation has a strong, profitable business then even if the company is forced into bankruptcy by its creditors (a very normal and routine thing), nearly all of the employees will keep their jobs. To me, Disney is an example of a fundamentally strong company even if they were sucked into the borrow-and-buyback vortex.
If a corporation has too much debt and was never profitable then when it is inevitably forced into bankruptcy, of course most employees' jobs won't survive. Painful but inevitable. It does free resources and money to be re-allocated to "actually profitable" areas however. Examples of "never profitable" companies tend to be the unicorn darlings with cult-like followers that were far, far overvalued based on dreams and hype.
Likewise, municipalities and states that went far into debt with a lot of unsustainable spending policies will be forced to restructure sooner rather than later because of the severe boot to their rear end that Corona is bringing. Whereas other jurisdictions which are run more efficiently will be able to secure enough credit to survive 18 months of reduced tax revenues, and will attract new investment as soon as business revives.
I won't say anything about individuals except that some people have practically zero debt and significant savings, and others have borrowed up the wazoo and saved nothing. For one of those groups Corona is a disaster, for the other group it is a temporary setback.
Sorry your whole analysis is flawed because you completely ignore the most critical thing... REVENUE and where it will be after things recover.
This isn't just about 'having a nest egg' -- It's also about being able to survive in a greatly depressed market afterwards too.
Governments in particular are problematic because they have such a large fixed cost structure... they can't quickly pivot and say "oh, we just won't do transportation anymore..." and add on top of that troubled times bring far greater demand for services. So their costs soar, while revenues plummet. Add into this one where there will certainly be calls for reprieves on taxes and revenues drop even more. The Fed will just print more money... States and Locals don't have that option. They have to issue debt or beg the fed for cheap loans.
Painting this as a 'culling of the weak' is down right foul. This is an unprecedented kind of situation that will have a great depression on the backside of it as well.