The problem is ignorance. The vaccinated don’t realize that it isn’t a cure and should still wear mask and social distance. The unvaccinated use their brother’s girlfriend’s cousin’s best friend’s uncle’s former classmate that was vaccinated and caught the virus as an excuse not to get vaccinated BECAusE tHEy GOT VACCinAtED aND stILl gOT It being ignorant to the fact that there’s a gazillion strains out there and they could have been infected before the vaccine kicked in.You're missing some important words in there.
"More and more studies are showing that fully vaccinated people with a breakthrough cases are not [as] likely to spread it [as unvaccinated people]"
Otherwise, it sounds like an absolute that vaccinated people never do something. We'll get 20 pages on people fighting about that and saying it's not 100% and totally happens. Followed by 10 pages of people saying since it happens at all, there's no sense getting vaccinated at all.
None of these are absolutes. Even the Gupta article in the first post doesn't say it's an absolute, but it does say that it's 8 times less for a vaccinated person and for less time. Both of which make a vaccinated person much less likely to pass on the virus than an unvaccinated one, but not 0.
Right. Everyone wants a light switch that's on or off. They want every solution to be like having a baby. Either you're pregnant or you're not, there's no such thing as half way.
But, that's not how virus transmission works. Maybe you're infecting lots of people, maybe few, probably not everyone you see and probably not none. And, since it's "less", when spread is high, that "less" is a larger absolute number. It's less of something large instead of less of something small.
We'll probably still get 5 more pages on how the vaccine is practically a forcefield or not anyway.
Everyone get vaccinated. Everyone get everyone you know vaccinated. That should drive the spread to less. Then less of a small number will be even less and it'll repeat until less is so small we don't worry about it anymore. Then I can get my Dole Whip, finally.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Masks
Chomama
Well-Known Member
Seasonality? It Is likely a combination of several factors. Where I live in Alabama nobody wears masks and we have seen the significant drop off. I do not think it is because of heard immunity either. I suspect that we will see another spike because at least 30 to 40% of our population
Remains unprotected. This is not a black and white situation but I am grateful for another break from having to worry about my kids leaving the house at all. I am hopeful that in a few more weeks they will be able to be vaccinated and we will move on with our lives. My husband and I had moderna back in February and are hopeful that will be able to get a booster, but are also grateful that moderna seems to be holding up over time. All of that said I just don’t think masks are the end all be all. I wear mine and so do my
Kids but there has to be more to the story.
correcaminos
Well-Known Member
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
I went to a Mexican restaurant tonight and oddly enough Fear Factor was on one of the large TVs at the bar. A pretty odd choice considering some of its queasy subject matter, not to mention just a super random thing to be on regardless.
Animaniac93-98
Well-Known Member
Is Fear Factor still a thing on TV? Or was that a rerun?
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
No it was definitely a re-run. I am pretty sure I had seen that episode 15 years ago
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
You think the limited number of “mask mandates” scattered throughout Florida is the reason for the significant drop in cases? Nah. They may have taken some off from the top and helped here and there but the huge drop off is the normal cycle of this virus as it goes through the population. Seeing the same thing in texas with pretty much no mitigation.
DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
Dang it, I hope we will not get another spike or major spike for this Winter 2021-2022. I don't want to wear mask anymore after the pandemic is finally over by next year. I just want to go back to normal and riding NJ Transit train to NYC again without masks anymore.
Vegas Disney Fan
Well-Known Member
I agree, the decrease in Florida is mostly due to the vast increase in the immune population, 4 million from vaccinations and another 2 million from catching Covid over the last few months.
We could have avoided most of those cases had everyone been vaccinated but one way or the other everyone will eventually have antibodies, the biggest thing we control is if we get the antibodies via vaccine or via illness.
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JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
But the illness route comes with death, hospitalizations and healthcare workers having to deal with people that think they are not at risk.
Yeah I agree with you
Actually, mathematically, there are some infinities bigger than others. The question is whether those mathematical models apply to something in reality that is truly infinite... even in the case of the least infinite infinity.
Also, there's misusing a well established mathematical model as a poor metaphor or to make a fallacious point. So, you can be right about the math, but wrong about the point you're making.
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October82
Well-Known Member
People engage in mitigation regardless of whether there are public health orders. There's no magic "cycles" that the virus does on its own. What we see in case and other counts, with this and other viruses, is driven by human behavior. Do we congregate with one another? Do we cough on each other? Do we wash our hands? Stay home when sick or go to work?
October82
Well-Known Member
Not to take anything away from what you're saying, but I don't think there's any doubt of this. People who argue the contrary, in my experience, have basic misunderstandings about cardinality.
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
What do they consider "not likely"? Stepdad vaccinated 73 spread it to vaccinated mom 67. Do they mean not likely if following precautions?
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
You can't possibly be suggesting that people wearing masks indoors at WDW is the reason that FL's case level has come down. There is no statewide mandate nor any local mandates and the vast majority of businesses don't require them.
Observationally, there was a slight increase in people voluntarily masking when the spike got real bad but, for the most part, the people who kept masking in May are the ones who have been masking through the rise and fall of the spike.
The cases coming down are mostly due to a combination of slowly increasing vaccination rates and the large number of people who were infected and recovered during the late June through late September time frame.
Andrew C
You know what's funny?
No one said the cycle is magic. But it’s there. The question/discussion was about masks being responsible for the huge decline in cases. They are not. Also, around mitigation, you really believe there were high levels of mitigation in Florida that caused the cases to fall off a cliff? Ok…
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
There are absolutely natural outbreak cycles. What do you think the "curve" is that we were trying to "flatten?" Given no mitigation and no vaccination every virus will have a natural cycle. The duration, peak amplitude and number of deaths will vary based on the virus but the shape of the curve will be very similar for all viruses.
Mitigation changes the shape of the curve and lowers the peak amplitude unless you go to true, draconian lockdowns where the total spread can be reduced. Vaccination changes the curve based on how effective it is against infection and ability of the vaccinated who are infected to spread the virus.
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