Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Nubs70]

What do they consider "not likely"? Stepdad vaccinated 73 spread it to vaccinated mom 67. Do they mean not likely if following precautions?

I would have to guess there was more than casual contact.

 

[ABQ]

Some of Rogans ‘quotes’ are idiotic to say the least. And many of the peons who follow him and take him for gospel don’t help. Additionally, anyone would avoid answering questions and let’s remember, Gupta isn’t an epidemiologist, He’s a neurosurgeon. So it’s not exactly Gupta’s wheel house.

And honestly who cares that cnn called ivermectin 'horse dewormer' because Gupta said it was something the network shouldn’t have done, yet we have people buying it from Vet Stores where it’s marketed at a horse dewormer, so it’s a two lane road.

But yes, Joe Rogan is a voice of reason, which such gems as "there are infinities that are larger than other infinities.”

I’ll stick to virologists and epidemiologists talking about the virus, then I wild a neurosurgeon and a UFC commentator who with no medical backing peddling medical advice.

Edit: "there are infinities that are larger than other infinities.” Sounds like a quote from a really bad stoner comedy.

I respect your takeaway that Rogan is a blowhard, certainly that's valid. I don't subscribe to his podcast and though I have seen it in later rebroadcasts from other sources, I don't even have a Spotify account nor have I ever once used spotify for anything. However to just blow off Gupta and his involvement on CNN as not even being noteworthy is a but shallow. Yes, he's not an epidemiologist, but to then say his opinion has no merit as he's a neurosurgeon is a stretch. CNN has been sticking him on the air throughout this entire pandemic so unless you're going to retcon his credentials, he should have spoken up to his network and at least hinted to them that the claims that Rogan specifically was taking horse dewormer were untrue, that's all. I would trust a neurosurgeon, brain surgeon, or even a podiatrist to know the difference.

 

[Andrew C]

There are absolutely natural outbreak cycles. What do you think the "curve" is that we were trying to "flatten?" Given no mitigation and no vaccination every virus will have a natural cycle. The duration, peak amplitude and number of deaths will vary based on the virus but the shape of the curve will be very similar for all viruses.

Mitigation changes the shape of the curve and lowers the peak amplitude unless you go to true, draconian lockdowns where the total spread can be reduced. Vaccination changes the curve based on how effective it is against infection and ability of the vaccinated who are infected to spread the virus.

Yeah. I’m really not seeing any flattening of floridas curve due to mitigation/changes in behavior. Cases took off like a rocket ship, peaked, and then came down like a sack of potatoes. I don’t see how that can be attributed to anything other than delta being delta. Highly contagious and rapidly burns through a population. But it’s a good thing a chunk of the population is vaccinated.

 

[Smooth]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[Patcheslee]

I would have to guess there was more than casual contact.

Then you don’t know my parents

 

[Gringrinngghost]

I respect your takeaway that Rogan is a blowhard, certainly that's valid. I don't subscribe to his podcast and though I have seen it in later rebroadcasts from other sources, I don't even have a Spotify account nor have I ever once used spotify for anything. However to just blow off Gupta and his involvement on CNN as not even being noteworthy is a but shallow. Yes, he's not an epidemiologist, but to then say his opinion has no merit as he's a neurosurgeon is a stretch. CNN has been sticking him on the air throughout this entire pandemic so unless you're going to retcon his credentials, he should have spoken up to his network and at least hinted to them that the claims that Rogan specifically was taking horse dewormer were untrue, that's all. I would trust a neurosurgeon, brain surgeon, or even a podiatrist to know the difference.

Additionally, To my immediate knowledge, Gupta has never called it a horse dewormer on air, while reporters have and thats the distinction. A reporter vs a medical doctor and we need to look at the context of it reporting Plus, it’s not a shock that they would have had him on air a lot though the pandemic, mainly from the fact it was impossible to get Fauci on air for a good chunk of it

And on the final remark that he should have critiqued the network over it, he still works on a hospital and wouldn’t be purvey to everything the network especially as they are a 2 branched International channel and the domestic network.

edited for clarification and Grammar.

To also note, when people are taking the horse version from a vet store, they are indeed taking a live stock drug.

 

[wdwmagic]

UK and EU citizens can return to Walt Disney World from November 8 as USA lifts travel ban​

UK and EU citizens can return to Walt Disney World from November 8 as USA lifts travel ban

The USA has today confirmed its travel ban will be lifted on November 8 2021.

www.wdwmagic.com

 

[correcaminos]

Then you don’t know my parents

Just pointing out that they live together I assume. Not casual. Also not sure why you brought up your parents to begin with unless you are trying to say vaccination doesn't matter.

I know more households that didn't spread from vaccinated than do. In fact I personally know of none.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Actually, mathematically, there are some infinities bigger than others. The question is whether those mathematical models apply to something in reality that is truly infinite... even in the case of the least infinite infinity.

Also, there's misusing a well established mathematical model as a poor metaphor or to make a fallacious point. So, you can be right about the math, but wrong about the point you're making.

I am aware of that.

it’s also more of a critique of the bloody YouTube ad.

 

[danlb_2000]

You think the limited number of “mask mandates” scattered throughout Florida is the reason for the significant drop in cases? Nah. They may have taken some off from the top and helped here and there but the huge drop off is the normal cycle of this virus as it goes through the population. Seeing the same thing in texas with pretty much no mitigation.

COVID seems to have a 2 month cycle to it's spikes. Here is a good article discussing this. There are a lot of theories as why the cycle happens but no one has been able to point to one specific thing that causes it, it's probably a combination of many factors.

Trying to Make Sense of COVID's Mysterious 2-Month Cycle

COVID-19 is once again in retreat. The reasons remain somewhat unclear, and there is no guarantee that the decline in caseloads will continue. But the turnaround is now large enough — and been going on long enough — to deserve attention. Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times...

news.yahoo.com

 

[Andrew C]

COVID seems to have a 2 month cycle to it's spikes. Here is a good article discussing this. There are a lot of theories as why the cycle happens but no one has been able to point to one specific thing that causes it, it's probably a combination of many factors.

Trying to Make Sense of COVID's Mysterious 2-Month Cycle

COVID-19 is once again in retreat. The reasons remain somewhat unclear, and there is no guarantee that the decline in caseloads will continue. But the turnaround is now large enough — and been going on long enough — to deserve attention. Sign up for The Morning newsletter from the New York Times...

news.yahoo.com

Thanks for this.

 

[Patcheslee]

Just pointing out that they live together I assume. Not casual. Also not sure why you brought up your parents to begin with unless you are trying to say vaccination doesn't matter.

I know more households that didn't spread from vaccinated than do. In fact I personally know of none.

I was trying to get clarification on what was considered "not likely" as that's a broad term.

 

[CLEtoWDW]

Welcome HOME International Guests!!! I hope you have a Disney trip planned in your near future!

 

[Heppenheimer]

I respect your takeaway that Rogan is a blowhard, certainly that's valid. I don't subscribe to his podcast and though I have seen it in later rebroadcasts from other sources, I don't even have a Spotify account nor have I ever once used spotify for anything. However to just blow off Gupta and his involvement on CNN as not even being noteworthy is a but shallow. Yes, he's not an epidemiologist, but to then say his opinion has no merit as he's a neurosurgeon is a stretch. CNN has been sticking him on the air throughout this entire pandemic so unless you're going to retcon his credentials, he should have spoken up to his network and at least hinted to them that the claims that Rogan specifically was taking horse dewormer were untrue, that's all. I would trust a neurosurgeon, brain surgeon, or even a podiatrist to know the difference.

One of the skills you learn in medical school, no matter what residency specialty you do, is how to interpret medical research and apply general recommendations to individual patients. This is well within Dr. Gupta's skill set to take recommendations made by an epidemiology (or another specialty) and explain it to the general public. Which is basically Dr. Gupta's job with CNN. I wouldn't expect a neurosurgeon to have the training to interpret raw population data and make his own recommendations (which he mostly doesn't do, with a few questionable statements regarding prostate screening being the exception), but it's perfectly within the realm of a neurosurgeon's training to apply and explain general recommendations made by others to their patients and the general population. Dr. Gupta mostly reports on and explains the general medical consensus, unlike another surgeon made famous by TV, who basically makes crap up.

 

[mmascari]

I was trying to get clarification on what was considered "not likely" as that's a broad term.

The term "not likely" is wrong, and isn't actually in the article. Don't get hung up on it.

A vaccinated person is "less likely" to transmit the virus on to someone else than an unvaccinated person.

In your specific example. It might have been they both caught it from the same source. It might have been that one gave it to the other. Either is possible and "less likely" doesn't mean "never", it just means "less".

It's also "less" than something else, so it's a relative measure, not an absolute one. That's part of why mitigations are dependent on environment. In a scenario where there is very little chance of an unvaccinated person infecting someone, there's even less for a vaccinated person. Imaging it's a 5 times less chance, starting from a very small number, that's even smaller then. But, in a scenario where there is a large chance of an unvaccinated person infecting someone else, then less of that large number may still be a large enough risk that more mitigations are needed even for vaccinated person.

In Disney terms, if getting to the park early meant the wait time for Space Mountain was a fifth of the wait time compared to getting there at noon. That doesn't automatically mean the wait time is short then. On a light day, if the wait at noon was an hour, then 12 minutes earlier sounds short. But, if the wait time at noon was 150 minutes, then a 30 minute wait would also be less. But, 30 still isn't really short.

 

[Gringrinngghost]

Then perhaps you could tell your friends that Don Lemon shouldn't have put it in writing on the chryon:

Don Lemon does whatever Don Lemon does; same with Chris Cuomo, which is why their programs continually overlap for the first 6 to 10 minutes much to the chagrin of master control and floor producers, and quite frankly I can't stand Brian Stelter. Anyway all of their comments and actions are out of my friends shifts anyway...

But my personal connections aside, I am looking at it objectively rather than personally. That chyron is again, factually true. ivermectin is a de-wormer, and furthermore it's been unproven to treat covid-19. All it is, frankly an eye-catching chyron, and most people know ivermectin from the media as its use for Horse de-wormer unless you want them to say "taking a drug for intestinal strongyloidiasis and onchocerciasis that's unproven for COVID-19"

 

[correcaminos]

I was trying to get clarification on what was considered "not likely" as that's a broad term.

Yes but I'm talking about the casual contact. Most people living together are not considered casual contact. Also is it possible they were infected by the same person and not each other? There will also always be exceptions to the rule. The only homes I know with more than 1 breakthrough did not spread to each other.

 

[Patcheslee]

Yes but I'm talking about the casual contact. Most people living together are not considered casual contact. Also is it possible they were infected by the same person and not each other? There will also always be exceptions to the rule. The only homes I know with more than 1 breakthrough did not spread to each other.

They only people that have been around without masks is each other. Because of his health they pretty much still live as close to being locked down as possible. The only places they go together is doctor appointments, if he wants to get out with her while she runs errands he stays in car, double masks in public, majority of trips are to curbside pickup with masks etc. Only place he has less control is work because they don't require customers to wear masks or anything. Hell they already changed their wills to include no one unvaccinated would be allowed at their funerals.

 

[Nubs70]

One of the skills you learn in medical school, no matter what residency specialty you do, is how to interpret medical research and apply general recommendations to individual patients. This is well within Dr. Gupta's skill set to take recommendations made by an epidemiology (or another specialty) and explain it to the general public. Which is basically Dr. Gupta's job with CNN. I wouldn't expect a neurosurgeon to have the training to interpret raw population data and make his own recommendations (which he mostly doesn't do, with a few questionable statements regarding prostate screening being the exception), but it's perfectly within the realm of a neurosurgeon's training to apply and explain general recommendations made by others to their patients and the general population. Dr. Gupta mostly reports on and explains the general medical consensus, unlike another surgeon made famous by TV, who basically makes crap up.

Same can be said for othe scientific specialties.

 

[correcaminos]

They only people that have been around without masks is each other. Because of his health they pretty much still live as close to being locked down as possible. The only places they go together is doctor appointments, if he wants to get out with her while she runs errands he stays in car, double masks in public, majority of trips are to curbside pickup with masks etc. Only place he has less control is work because they don't require customers to wear masks or anything. Hell they already changed their wills to include no one unvaccinated would be allowed at their funerals.

I get what you are saying but at home they are NOT casual contacts. Why are you ignoring that and making it sound like they aren't near each other at home?

You keep straying to make it sound like vaccines suck but then they don't. I'm seriously lost at your entire point now sorry. And if they go anywhere together at all, they both can be exposed. Fact is transmission from vaccinated to vaccinated is rare. Not impossible but rare.