Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[disney4life2008]

I wonder how they are going to deal with bag check? That is somewhere that you can't help but violate any social distance norms.

That's a good point. It's unavoidable. I'm not sure how they are doing it in the airport.

They could also cap attendance at the magic Kingdom. Or stop admitting after a certain time

 

[The Mom]

No more political talk please. Please report any posts that stray into that area, and please do not respond.

 

[jt04]

The mortality rate is currently around 1.4% in the US. I think the poster was assuming that there are many, many cases of infection that aren't being figured into the current mortality rate. As with many other viruses, as they progress and as time goes the data will usually show a much lower mortality rate.

Hopefully. Finding the right medicines while they develop a vaccine is crucial.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

That's a good point. It's unavoidable. I'm not sure how they are doing it in the airport.

They could also cap attendance at the magic Kingdom. Or stop admitting after a certain time

All it is, is a recommendation. Not law.

 

[disney4life2008]

Might as well keep the parks closed then because no one will want to go.

Yeah...I can't see someone who isn't an AP spending over $100 to enter a park that doesn't have that much to do.

That's why I originally said APs.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

No more political talk please. Please report any posts that stray into that area, and please do not respond.

Sorry. My fault.

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

That's a good point. It's unavoidable. I'm not sure how they are doing it in the airport.

There are a lot of places where people congregate. Airports, Buses, Theme Parks, Lines at any store (or in the theme park scenario lines for rides and QS). I think they can only do so much.

 

[disney4life2008]

Only MK being open sounds like a nightmare. It's easily the park I go to least, a lot of that to due the travel and the crowds.

If those are the requirements at that time then they shouldn't be open at all.

Epcot has nothing to do and with the limitations on food and alcohol they are closed for the foreseeable future.

I think animal kingdom would be the easiest park to open and run. But I remember reading somewhere it's the most costly park to operate.

Hollywood studios is a bore. They should just shut it down completely.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

There are a lot of places where people conjugate. Airports, Buses, Theme Parks, Lines at any store (or in the theme park scenario lines for rides and QS). I think they can only do so much.

Exactly. If we're going to reopen businesses and parks, etc. (and people start back on business travel), then the reality becomes you're going to get it. It will become unavoidable unless we just shut everything down.

 

[jt04]

I wonder how they are going to deal with bag check? That is somewhere that you can't help but violate any social distance norms.

Back in the day people didn't carry backpacks in the parks and were fine. They could limit what you carry like the airlines.

 

[thomas998]

Vaccinations lead to herd immunity too. Like measles now (or before the idiot anti-vaxers). Many people never had the measles but they are vaccinated so now immune. If we slow the spread it’s possible to reach herd immunity in a year when a vaccine is available Without 70% of the population getting this.

Wishful thinking. Measles is a different type of virus and one in which once you have immunity it is for a very long time... The corona type viruses don't work like that because immunity wears off much faster. So assuming you only needed 70% to have immunity to keep numbers down, as soon as some of your herd lost the immunity you would fall back under the threshold and the virus which was never erradicated would pop back up again.

Lastly don't assume they will have a vaccine in a year. How many times has a company came out with a new vaccine for HIV and then it turns out to be a failure... and how long did they chase after vaccines that were successful before they finally found one that worked? Remember FDR was pushing for a polio vaccine in 1944 but it wasn't until mid 50's that they started seeing success.

 

[Patcheslee]

I think its very dubious to point or shame people not buying into the POTENTIAL for what would happen... while ignoring the whole PROBABILITY aspect of things at the same time. People don't dismiss what the experts say about the disease, how it spreads, etc... what people do is doubt the probability of it actually happening and playing out to the worst case scenario.

For most people, that's human nature... conditioned by the countless examples that preceded it that did NOT play out to the worst case scenario. That makes it difficult for people to get on board with 'this is happening...' before they actually see it happening.

What is more difficult to justify is when people are slow to respond when it actually starts happening. There the line between 'optimism' and 'denial' is often very murky until it gets really bad.

It's the main complaint and common occurrence with tornadoes and hurricanes. Ppl can be warned 100x and they wait till the last minute.

 

[Phil12]

Supermarkets around here are a BIG PROBLEM. People aren't acknowledging the 6 feet minimum safe distance and are getting impatient with those who do. I get that here in NE, we tend to run around like crazy people in relation to other parts of the country...but leaving some extra space in line right now is important and closing line gaps isn't going to get you through check-out any faster.

I have taken to using pickup for my groceries. I downloaded the Walmart Grocery App and ordered everything I needed. One item was not in stock and four other items they decided to substitute other similar items. But, all in all, it worked very well.

You pick a time to make your pickup from a list of available pickup times on the app. You then select the items you want and pay for them via credit card, debit card or bank-draft. After you close the app, you still have several hours to either add or delete items from your order. After I placed my first order, I forgot that I needed cat litter. I opened up the app and added cat litter to the order.

Then, just before the order is ready to be picked up, they send you an email and let you know the order is ready. You reply when you're on your way to pick up the order. When I arrived at the pickup spot the Walmart CM came out of the building with my full order in large blue bins. All I had to do is pop the trunk lid on my car and they loaded everything up and we were on our way! There is no extra charge for this service!

After I got home I unloaded all of the items and threw away all the bags. And also washed my hands.

Also, I have plenty of food for breakfast in the house such as oatmeal, eggs, bacon, bread cereal and other stuff. But since the self-imposed quarantine, I've been going to McDonald's every morning to pick up breakfast. My reasoning is that we really don't know how long this situation is going to last so I want to preserve my in house food supply for as long as possible.

The McDonald's app works perfectly. Just order on the phone and pickup the order at the drive-in. No need to handle any money and I refuse the paper receipt (I get a receipt on my phone). Bring the order home to my family and wash my hands.

The bottom line is I'm minimizing contact with others outside of my fellow family isolation partners. And my hands have never been cleaner!

 

["El Gran Magnifico"]

Back in the day people didn't carry backpacks in the parks and were fine. They could limit what you carry like the airlines.

Yeah. But if you got a stroller. Chances are - you're going to have a bag. And strollers have to go through bag check. Bag or not.

 

[DisneyCane]

The death rate based on current numbers in the US is 1.04%. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ If we assume there is a not insubstantial number of people who had it, but were never tested, then that pushes it down closer to 1%. The curve still seems be going up, though so we'll see.

I'm optimistic, at least based on what's happening in my area. They started recommending social distancing when there were only a few travel-related cases in the area. They pulled the trigger on more "serious" restrictions shortly thereafter.

The real number of cases is likely far higher. There is no way to tell if it is twice, 10x or 100x. The actual mortality rate will be lower than what is calculated. How much lower we have no idea until somebody tries to sample the population and determine the real number of infections.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Yeah. But if you got a stroller. Chances are - you're going to have a bag.

Or kids. Especially if you have an infant. Diapers, wipes, etc.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I confess to having grossly underestimated this crisis until only a few weeks ago. You're right that the signs were there. To my shame, I missed them.

It didn't hit me how serious this was until March 12, when I first heard my college was closing for at least two weeks. I never thought that would happen.

I think its very dubious to point or shame people not buying into the POTENTIAL for what would happen... while ignoring the whole PROBABILITY aspect of things at the same time. People don't dismiss what the experts say about the disease, how it spreads, etc... what people do is doubt the probability of it actually happening and playing out to the worst case scenario.

For most people, that's human nature... conditioned by the countless examples that preceded it that did NOT play out to the worst case scenario. That makes it difficult for people to get on board with 'this is happening...' before they actually see it happening.

What is more difficult to justify is when people are slow to respond when it actually starts happening. There the line between 'optimism' and 'denial' is often very murky until it gets really bad.

I didn't doubt something was going to happen, but I vastly underestimated both the scope and especially the speed with which it DID happen...and the severity of the pneumonia that accompanies the virus. Until probably March 10 or 11 I thought it would be similar to other recent outbreaks...but still had already taken the precaution of not visiting my mother on her birthday on the 7th...just in case.

 

[21stamps]

Well, I guess tomorrow is our last day of business for at least a couple of weeks, we think. We don’t even know yet.. we’re not on the essential or non essential list.

 

[thomas998]

I think its very dubious to point or shame people not buying into the POTENTIAL for what would happen... while ignoring the whole PROBABILITY aspect of things at the same time. People don't dismiss what the experts say about the disease, how it spreads, etc... what people do is doubt the probability of it actually happening and playing out to the worst case scenario.

For most people, that's human nature... conditioned by the countless examples that preceded it that did NOT play out to the worst case scenario. That makes it difficult for people to get on board with 'this is happening...' before they actually see it happening.

What is more difficult to justify is when people are slow to respond when it actually starts happening. There the line between 'optimism' and 'denial' is often very murky until it gets really bad.

Part of the problem is we aren't given the underlying assumptions when they throw out a worst case scenario. I know you will have way to many detail to list them out on a TV screen while talking about it but it would be nice if they would provide the data and formulas they used to come up with them. Or even simply give the probability they have for the best worst and likely scenarios. I've worked in places where they wanted a 5% probability of the worst case and others where you had 20% for a worst case... I think most people know the odds of the worst thing possible happening are low, but it would be nice to know just how low they really are.

If you asked every expert that's been throwing around the same numbers what the probability of the worst case happening was you would probably be a wide range of numbers.

 

[flynnibus]

It's the main complaint and common occurrence with tornadoes and hurricanes. Ppl can be warned 100x and they wait till the last minute.

Sure - because for most people they can 'play the odds' and win... The warnings are often for 'worst case' and the probability of that happening is not linear.. so people get conditioned to think "oh its never as bad as they say it was going to be..". And they can be right.. even for their whole lifetime or even generations. This conditions people to downplay the warnings.

"preparing for the worst..." is costly and disruptive... and without the history of showing it's 'needed'.. its priority goes down.

It's extremely judgemental to say "I told you so!" when the worst finally does land and point to everyone with "I told you so!" when you ignore all the times they were "wrong" (air quotes because wrong isn't 'incorrect' just.. it didn't come to be).

What we need to educate people to do is respect the SEVERITY of something and embrace the idea that probability is not a promise.. it's a educated prediction.