Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Herd immunity if even possible will require about 70% of the people to be infected... So you're already over a million deaths to get there.

Vaccinations lead to herd immunity too. Like measles now (or before the idiot anti-vaxers). Many people never had the measles but they are vaccinated so now immune. If we slow the spread it’s possible to reach herd immunity in a year when a vaccine is available Without 70% of the population getting this.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Vaccinations lead to herd immunity too. Like measles now (or before the idiot anti-vaxers). Many people never had the measles but they are vaccinated so now immune. If we slow the spread it’s possible to reach herd immunity in a year when a vaccine is available Without 70% of the population getting this.

I was stunned at the mothers who appeared in Netflix's Pandemic documentary saying that they know more than doctors.

 

[Surferboy567]

Because they're operating under the idea of opening in late April or sometime in May. Even if not til mid May, they still need those workers.

They will be open for the summer. Probably before then.

My point is that they should notify those workers that are arriving early in May. That their program will be likely pushed back a few weeks.

...I personally have my DCP first week of June (if it happens)

 

[Parker in NYC]

I was stunned at the mothers who appeared in Netflix's Pandemic documentary saying that they know more than doctors.

Sadly, after a few weeks of this, I no longer am.

 

[GoofGoof]

My point is that they should notify those workers that are arriving early in May. That their program will be likely pushed back a few weeks.

...I personally have my DCP first week of June (if it happens)

I think business leaders are balancing their obligation to employees vs their obligation to shareholders. If they told employees privately that the opening would likely be pushed back to later in May that would go public. No way it stays private. That could have an impact on the share price and would likely have to be made publicly available through press release or some other means to avoid insider trading concerns. I know it seems trivial to worry about that at a time like this but they still need to follow the rules. I think pretty soon Disney will need to make a public announcement about plans and that’s probably when employees will find out.

 

[DisneyCane]

True, but the strategy is to delay the spread to make the peak flatter.

This shifts everything to the warmer months also. Shutting down essentials like grocery and pharmacies would cause more problems than it solves. That is an option in more extreme situations.

That is true but doesn't change the face that the risk of spread is just as high with the same people showing up at an "essential" business.

The whole strategy is hoping to keep the number of infections suppressed in the hope that the spread naturally slows when it is warmer and more humid out like the flu and colds do.

That or one of the treatments in testing works and they'll have time to ramp up production.

 

[Brer Oswald]

-Fever was around 100 (now gone)
-Sore throat for five days
-Tons of thick mucus in my throat (thus sore throat) but no nasal congestion
-sporadic cough (not severe)
-shortness of breath, but I’m pretty fit, so not dangerous. I can usually work out for an hour and a half. Recently, if I walked 15 min, I was gasping like I had run 5 miles
-bad headache
-muscle and body aches
-serious fatigue
-chills
-clammy

Not severe, but not pleasant. A bad flu without all the snot.

I was really paranoid that I had it. Had a really bad cough which is only starting to go away, difficulty breathing (I ran 15 seconds to the mailbox and was panting) and really weird muscle aches. I didn’t experience any of the other symptoms (sore throat, chills, fever, etc.), so it’s very likely it was something else. Still better to be safe and self quarantine, which I did.

That being said, I’m confused as all h*** about what I did have. I’ve never had a cold like that before.

Hope you are feeling better.

 

[Brer Oswald]

Huh?
I'm confused on what you are saying... as you saying we don't know exactly how many have it? If so then yes, that is true, but the 1.5% mortality rate is based on the fact that 80-86% don't have symptoms severe enough to have warranted testing. If you were to go strictly by the number that are tested and then die you would have a much higher mortality rate.

Which is an estimate based on what exactly?

 

[drizgirl]

I was really paranoid that I had it. Had a really bad cough which is only starting to go away, difficulty breathing (I ran 15 seconds to the mailbox and was panting) and really weird muscle aches. I didn’t experience any of the other symptoms (sore throat, chills, fever, etc.), so it’s very likely it was something else. Still better to be safe and self quarantine, which I did.

That being said, I’m confused as all h*** about what I did have. I’ve never had a cold like that before.

Hope you are feeling better.

There's a lot of stuff going around. I had a horrible tenacious cough in mid to late January. It lasted for 3 solid weeks. I got better for most of February and have had the same exact thing for the past 2 weeks. Still not gone. I'm optimistic it might fade when I hit the 3 week mark again. No fever, no body aches. Not CV but what a crazy illness. I know several other people who had the same thing and it took forever to go away.

 

[jt04]

That is true but doesn't change the face that the risk of spread is just as high with the same people showing up at an "essential" business.

The whole strategy is hoping to keep the number of infections suppressed in the hope that the spread naturally slows when it is warmer and more humid out like the flu and colds do.

That or one of the treatments in testing works and they'll have time to ramp up production.

Yes so closing nonessential places makes sense until they get more data to decide the next step.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

My point is that they should notify those workers that are arriving early in May. That their program will be likely pushed back a few weeks.

...I personally have my DCP first week of June (if it happens)

Latest rumors state Disney is planning on reopening on April 20th (I personally don't think so, but also have to respect that governmental officials in California and Florida are having more conversations with them than they are us). They don't want to announce that until they have to because in addition to the DCP, there are guests who are trying to plan their vacations. You tell them they are reopening on the 20th of April and people start having expectations. They're trying to get that into a cone of certainty. It's all about communications and giving the most accurate information you possibly can. The reality is they will probably have an announcement in the next day or so that will say they're reopening on April 20th (or some other date based on the latest info they have) unless there are reasons from the government whether it be federal, state, or local to postpone that.

Right now, DCP should plan on reporting on their dates and not expect a change until told so.

 

[easyrowrdw]

It is pretty clear now that even if only half the people get infected in the US that you will have more than a million dead from it. The lowest mortality rate yet push is 1.5%... so if I was going to place a bet on the final death figure it would be way north of a million. Vaccines and cures are a long ways off and the virus seems to be moving pretty quickly.

Huh?
I'm confused on what you are saying... as you saying we don't know exactly how many have it? If so then yes, that is true, but the 1.5% mortality rate is based on the fact that 80-86% don't have symptoms severe enough to have warranted testing. If you were to go strictly by the number that are tested and then die you would have a much higher mortality rate.

The death rate based on current numbers in the US is 1.04%. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ If we assume there is a not insubstantial number of people who had it, but were never tested, then that pushes it down closer to 1%. The curve still seems be going up, though so we'll see.

I'm optimistic, at least based on what's happening in my area. They started recommending social distancing when there were only a few travel-related cases in the area. They pulled the trigger on more "serious" restrictions shortly thereafter.

 

[21stamps]

State of Ohio issues Stay at Home order. Daycares closing, elementary aged special daycare (ie YMCA program) for essential workers is now limited to 6 kids per room.

 

[Patcheslee]

Unfortunately seen a FB post from an old high school friend: church taking place in a tattoo parlor because state ordered tattoo parlors and churches closed. Changing the location doesn't change exposure risk

 

[LittleBuford]

Anyone with a shred of common sense would have seen - months ago - what we were up against.

I confess to having grossly underestimated this crisis until only a few weeks ago. You're right that the signs were there. To my shame, I missed them.

 

[GoofGoof]

Horses probably prefer an empty track anyway.

Wells Bayou wins eerie Louisiana Derby at empty track

As Wells Bayou completed a wire-to-wire victory in the $1 million Louisiana Derby, there was hardly a cheer to be heard — other than the isolated triumphant shouts of trainer Brad and his stable crew. In the 107th running of the qualifying points race for the Kentucky Derby, the clubhouse...

sports.yahoo.com

 

[Shouldigo12]

I confess to having grossly underestimated this crisis until only a few weeks ago. You're right that the signs were there. To my shame, I missed them.

It didn't hit me how serious this was until March 12, when I first heard my college was closing for at least two weeks. I never thought that would happen.

 

[davidfarley]

How do you come to the conclusion that it will kill less than 1% when the best case estimate is 1.5% mortality rate? And where do you come to the conclusion that you will have immunity after you've had it. Most coronaviruses don't give the person life long immunity.

The mortality rate is currently around 1.4% in the US. I think the poster was assuming that there are many, many cases of infection that aren't being figured into the current mortality rate. As with many other viruses, as they progress and as time goes the data will usually show a much lower mortality rate.

 

[davidfarley]

I'm pretty sure the mortality rate in South Korea is closer to 1% than 1.5%, and despite more widespread testing than anywhere else they almost certainly had cases that were never tested. It's not like they were just testing the whole population even if they were completely asymptomatic.

I've seen reports of 0.64% and 0.7% mortality rate in South Korea. And I agree with you that infections are certainly undercounted.

 

[flynnibus]

I think its very dubious to point or shame people not buying into the POTENTIAL for what would happen... while ignoring the whole PROBABILITY aspect of things at the same time. People don't dismiss what the experts say about the disease, how it spreads, etc... what people do is doubt the probability of it actually happening and playing out to the worst case scenario.

For most people, that's human nature... conditioned by the countless examples that preceded it that did NOT play out to the worst case scenario. That makes it difficult for people to get on board with 'this is happening...' before they actually see it happening.

What is more difficult to justify is when people are slow to respond when it actually starts happening. There the line between 'optimism' and 'denial' is often very murky until it gets really bad.