Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[thomas998]

Not if the real mortality rate is much less. If the reality is 0.1% like the flu then 70% infected would be around 228,000 deaths in the US.

Until someone goes out and samples a large swath of the population, we have absolutely no idea how many were/are infected with asymptomatic or very mild cases.

You can look at the numbers from China where they were going door to door. If you do then you get closer to the 1.5% the problem if you read the reports on China is that when someone was asymptomatic they didn't include them in the results of confirmed cases even though they tested positive. Probably because it allowed the powers at be in China the ability to down play the number infected.

 

[UNCgolf]

Actually the South Koreans were very vigilant in testing to begin with which is why they have managed to keep the numbers so low. Their current mortality rate is 1.1% but they still have 59 patients in critical condition so given the 1.1% is based on 104 deaths, if they lose even half of the 59 the rate will be very close to the 1.5%.

Yes they were, but as I said, they didn't test everyone. They've tested around 300,000 people; the population of South Korea is over 50 million. It would be naive to assume they tested every single person who could have potentially contracted Covid-19.

Most statisticians will tell you the actual mortality rate is likely less than 1% for the overall population. It's higher than that for people over 60, though, and much higher once you get into the 70s and 80s.

 

[ToTBellHop]

How do you come to the conclusion that it will kill less than 1% when the best case estimate is 1.5% mortality rate? And where do you come to the conclusion that you will have immunity after you've had it. Most coronaviruses don't give the person life long immunity.

S. Korea did the best testing. 1.1% mortality rate, and even they didn’t test everyone. Too many are assymptomatic or have light symptoms.

 

[ToTBellHop]

I have some follow up questions, if you don't mind. What was your first symptom, how quickly did that progress into the rest of the symptoms? How many days have you been feeling symptoms overall?

Sore throat most noticeable at first. 8 days of significant symptoms.

 

[thomas998]

Yes they were, but as I said, they didn't test everyone. They've tested around 300,000 people; the population of South Korea is over 50 million. It would be naive to assume they tested every single person who could have potentially contracted Covid-19.

Most statisticians will tell you the actual mortality rate is likely less than 1% for the overall population. It's higher than that for people over 60, though, and much higher once you get into the 70s and 80s.

While I hope I am wrong and you are right, I see no solid evidence to think it is as mild as the flu at this time.

 

[disneygeek90]

Sore throat most noticeable at first. 8 days of significant symptoms.

Hopefully you're past the worst of it. Hope you're feeling better soon.

 

[UNCgolf]

While I hope I am wrong and you are right, I see no solid evidence to think it is as mild as the flu at this time.

I definitely don't think it's as mild as the flu. The flu has a roughly 0.1% mortality rate, and Covid is going to be significantly higher than that no matter what. At the very least it will probably be 7-8 times deadlier than the flu.

 

[thomas998]

I don’t disagree - but that example still doesn’t support doesn’t support the postulate that national emergency empowers the president to throw out the constitution.... because at the time, the actions made were done within what was believed to be constitutional... and at the standard of the time, confirmed.

You cant apply today’s standards in hindsight and redefine the scope of power the actions were taken under.

It does however highlight the fact that in times of crisis the Constitution is for all intents and purposes suspended or ignored. Whether it is right to do that or not doesn't matter if your the person who had their rights thrown out the window.

 

[thomas998]

With all due respect, why would I or any other non-Ohioan here be following Ohio’s daily announcements?

And yes, data is limited. No-one is saying otherwise. But there is still enough of it to help shape the critical decisions that are currently being taken.

One reason to follow is that other states are tending to slowly follow what other states that are further along the pandemic are doing. So by knowing what Ohio does it can give a person in a different state a indication of what they can expect. If you saw that the state beside your state was going to martial law and keeping everyone off the streets you would know that it would probably be a good time to do any last minute toilet tissue runs you might want to do.

 

[flynnibus]

It does however highlight the fact that in times of crisis the Constitution is for all intents and purposes suspended or ignored. Whether it is right to do that or not doesn't matter if your the person who had their rights thrown out the window.

In the first half of the century we saw that crisis (through war or economic collapse) lead to a great expansion of federal scope and authority. I think in the second half and into this century... we have seen a move to more selfish behavior and interpretations of the constitution that have lead to a great expansion of the interpretation of "rights". But we have yet to face a crisis on a national level to test that point of friction. 9/11 probably being the closest... but without the need for a full national mobilization or a true risk to the full domestic economy... it quickly subsided into one of our 'remote wars' fought within the resources we generally have.

This event certainly is the biggest threat to our country since WWII.

 

[LittleBuford]

One reason to follow is that other states are tending to slowly follow what other states that are further along the pandemic are doing. So by knowing what Ohio does it can give a person in a different state a indication of what they can expect. If you saw that the state beside your state was going to martial law and keeping everyone off the streets you would know that it would probably be a good time to do any last minute toilet tissue runs you might want to do.

Again, I explained myself badly, as I later acknowledged:

I didn’t explain myself clearly. When I asked whom she was quoting, she initially replied by saying it was common knowledge and that I should find the link myself. My point is that it’s unrealistic of her to assume that it would be common knowledge outside her state.

I agree that it pays to stay informed of what’s happening elsewhere. I won’t pretend, however, that I’m watching Ohio’s daily press conferences.

 

[Tom Morrow]

I've driven through a few times this past week. It's even more deserted at night. Truly haunting.

 

[JoeT63]

It is increasingly becoming clear that millions of Americans won’t die.

But, but, but... They said it on the INTERNET!!

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Again, I explained myself badly, as I later acknowledged:



I agree that it pays to stay informed of what’s happening elsewhere. I won’t pretend, however, that I’m watching Ohio’s daily press conferences.

Yeah...I appreciate reading what all the states are doing, but when it comes to videos, I'm limiting myself to the president and task force, the MA governor, and the mayor of Boston.

 

[Patcheslee]

Just going back through my employer info release
Per my company email about support in their Wuhan facilities: there were supply issues because the company worked with other plants in the world to secure masks for employees before a US case was even confirmed. Food supply was also an issue in the locked down province.

 

[Kamikaze]

For what it’s worth...

Coronavirus Quarantine Will Last 12 Weeks, Steve Mnuchin Says

Get ready to settle in, because the coronavirus quarantine will probably last into June ... this according to U.S. Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin.

www.tmz.com

The headline does not match what he said. He was asked how long he would be giving the stimulus package(s) over, not how long the quarantine would be or the outbreak would be. It stands to reason that the stimulus should be longer than the quarantine because its going to take longer for businesses to get back up and running. Its not like everyone will go back day 1 and be at 100%.

I do expect that the economy will pick up rather quickly once everything is open, but its not going to happen in one day or one week.

 

[TheDisneyDaysOfOurLives]

Honestly very surprised Disney hasn’t said anything about Fall DCP arrivals. The first wave is set to arrive in May (we all know this probably isn’t going to happen unless it’s LATE May).

Trying to be optimistic...but realistic.

EDIT: Also very surprised that they haven’t announced extended closures.

Because they're operating under the idea of opening in late April or sometime in May. Even if not til mid May, they still need those workers.

They will be open for the summer. Probably before then.

 

[jt04]

The same risk exists if I own a grocery store. Especially when the movie theaters were "social distancing" in the auditoriums.

I went to Target yesterday and was in close contact with many people in the checkout area. Probably more contact than I would have had in a movie theater at 50% capacity with staggered seating.

True, but the strategy is to delay the spread to make the peak flatter.

This shifts everything to the warmer months also. Shutting down essentials like grocery and pharmacies would cause more problems than it solves. That is an option in more extreme situations.

 

[thomas998]

In the first half of the century we saw that crisis (through war or economic collapse) lead to a great expansion of federal scope and authority. I think in the second half and into this century... we have seen a move to more selfish behavior and interpretations of the constitution that have lead to a great expansion of the interpretation of "rights". But we have yet to face a crisis on a national level to test that point of friction. 9/11 probably being the closest... but without the need for a full national mobilization or a true risk to the full domestic economy... it quickly subsided into one of our 'remote wars' fought within the resources we generally have.

This event certainly is the biggest threat to our country since WWII.

Sadly over the years the amount of legal gymnastics that have been played to create rights in the Constitution that simply don't exist by any reasonable interpretation of what is written in it has grown and grown. It would be nice if Courts were filled with people that simply took the Constitution for what it said and stopped trying to ferret out what was intended. Even though I support certain things like a woman's right to choose I hate the way the Court created a right to privacy where none actually existed simply so they could make the ruling they wanted. Those are the problems with Courts today, too many justices know what they want to happen and twist reality to make it happen.

 

[thomas998]

Because they're operating under the idea of opening in late April or sometime in May. Even if not til mid May, they still need those workers.

They will be open for the summer. Probably before then.

Well now they are saying we may be in a lockdown for 10-12 weeks until June. So May is probably not going to happen.