Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[The Mom]

I still do not understand the grocery/necessity hoarding. I never saw a report out of Wuhan that said there was any supply issue. They were just restricted of when they could go out to the store.

A psychologist appeared on local TV and opined that it may be a way for people to feel in control. They can't do anything about schools, etc closing, or even truly protecting their family against an unseen foe, but they can at least try to make sure they have enough food, etc to take care of their families.

 

[thomas998]

The mortality rate will end up no where near that. It’s far more widespread than reported. I was turned away three times from testing because I hadn’t traveled. Finally got the test. Positive. At least I was self-isolating. Many would get turned away once and just go to work.

They claim 8000 cases in NYC. It’s far higher than that. As long as immunity is protective, this will quickly run through big cities killing far fewer than 1% of the population. Even with shelter in place, it’s still doubling every 3 days.

How do you come to the conclusion that it will kill less than 1% when the best case estimate is 1.5% mortality rate? And where do you come to the conclusion that you will have immunity after you've had it. Most coronaviruses don't give the person life long immunity.

 

[Horizons '83]

I was also at a Whole Foods in Midtown Atlanta on Friday and it looked totally normal inside. Every area of the store was fully stocked; no empty shelves anywhere and tons of meat (including ground beef), seafood, and fresh produce.

Your timing was perfect then. I have been able to get what our household needs, the basics, but almost every store here in Marietta, seems to be absent of all paper products, meat, eggs and butter but the beer stores are fully stocked!

 

[DisneyCane]

Herd immunity if even possible will require about 70% of the people to be infected... So you're already over a million deaths to get there.

Not if the real mortality rate is much less. If the reality is 0.1% like the flu then 70% infected would be around 228,000 deaths in the US.

Until someone goes out and samples a large swath of the population, we have absolutely no idea how many were/are infected with asymptomatic or very mild cases.

 

[thomas998]

That’s if everyone who gets tested is everyone that has it. We know that’s not the case.

Huh?
I'm confused on what you are saying... as you saying we don't know exactly how many have it? If so then yes, that is true, but the 1.5% mortality rate is based on the fact that 80-86% don't have symptoms severe enough to have warranted testing. If you were to go strictly by the number that are tested and then die you would have a much higher mortality rate.

 

[Surferboy567]

Honestly very surprised Disney hasn’t said anything about Fall DCP arrivals. The first wave is set to arrive in May (we all know this probably isn’t going to happen unless it’s LATE May).

Trying to be optimistic...but realistic.

EDIT: Also very surprised that they haven’t announced extended closures.

 

[UNCgolf]

Your timing was perfect then. I have been able to get what our household needs, the basics, but almost every store here in Marietta, seems to be absent of all paper products, meat, eggs and butter but the beer stores are fully stocked!

The Publix here in Vinings has everything except paper products and ground beef, or at least they did yesterday around noon (which is when you'd expect it to be packed, but it wasn't).

I do think that Whole Foods is a bit of an outlier though. It's mostly surrounded by hotels and offices, and I think a ton of the business comes from people who work nearby and just grab stuff there before they head home. There are luxury apartments and condos near it (it's actually in a residential building), but most of them were built in the last 3-4 years and I don't think any of them are close to being full. There's also a Publix a couple of blocks down the street.

 

[LittleBuford]

Here’s yesterday’s briefing.

It shouldn’t be a shock to anyone. Most of us have realized we’re only dealing with limited data, during this whole thing. Now they’re flat out announcing how limited it really is

With all due respect, why would I or any other non-Ohioan here be following Ohio’s daily announcements?

And yes, data is limited. No-one is saying otherwise. But there is still enough of it to help shape the critical decisions that are currently being taken.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

With all due respect, why would I know I or any other non-Ohioan here be following Ohio’s daily announcements?

She was asked a couple of times to provide a source for a quote or to include a citation.

 

[UNCgolf]

Huh?
I'm confused on what you are saying... as you saying we don't know exactly how many have it? If so then yes, that is true, but the 1.5% mortality rate is based on the fact that 80-86% don't have symptoms severe enough to have warranted testing. If you were to go strictly by the number that are tested and then die you would have a much higher mortality rate.

I'm pretty sure the mortality rate in South Korea is closer to 1% than 1.5%, and despite more widespread testing than anywhere else they almost certainly had cases that were never tested. It's not like they were just testing the whole population even if they were completely asymptomatic.

 

[LittleBuford]

She was asked a couple of times to provide a source for a quote or to include a citation.

I didn’t explain myself clearly. When I asked whom she was quoting, she initially replied by saying it was common knowledge and that I should find the link myself. My point is that it’s unrealistic of her to assume that it would be common knowledge outside her state.

 

[ToTBellHop]

If you don’t mind me asking, what kind of symptoms did you have? I’m wondering if I had it this past week.

-Fever was around 100 (now gone)
-Sore throat for five days
-Tons of thick mucus in my throat (thus sore throat) but no nasal congestion
-sporadic cough (not severe)
-shortness of breath, but I’m pretty fit, so not dangerous. I can usually work out for an hour and a half. Recently, if I walked 15 min, I was gasping like I had run 5 miles
-bad headache
-muscle and body aches
-serious fatigue
-chills
-clammy

Not severe, but not pleasant. A bad flu without all the snot.

 

[thomas998]

No - incorrect. And the scotus judgements define that they were in fact constitutional.

being "unusual" or the like does not make them unconstitutional nor does their existence mean that the president is now above the constitution if declaring a "national emergency".

you cant use those examples to claim they can ignore the constitution when in fact the challenges to the actions found they were not.

this is classic "close enough for me..." leaps of logic.

I think you are putting too much weight on the Korematsu decision which is ignored by the courts to this day as being a bad decision and one that will forever be ignored. Trump tried to use Korematsu to support his travel ban and was rebuffed by the Supreme Court with Roberts writing "The dissent's reference to Korematsu, however, affords this Court the opportunity to make express what is already obvious: Korematsu was gravely wrong the day it was decided, has been overruled in the court of history, and—to be clear—'has no place in law under the Constitution'" So stop hanging your hat on past opinions that were wrong. The Supreme Court is not infallible and has made bad decisions in the past.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I didn’t explain myself clearly. When I asked whom she was quoting, she initially replied by saying it was common knowledge and that I should find the link myself. My point is that it’s unrealistic of her to assume that it would be common knowledge outside her state.

Ahhhh...gotcha!

 

[Horizons '83]

The Publix here in Vinings has everything except paper products and ground beef, or at least they did yesterday around noon (which is when you'd expect it to be packed, but it wasn't).

I do think that Whole Foods is a bit of an outlier though. It's mostly surrounded by hotels and offices, and I think a ton of the business comes from people who work nearby and just grab stuff there before they head home. There are luxury apartments and condos near it (it's actually in a residential building), but most of them were built in the last 3-4 years and I don't think any of them are close to being full. There's also a Publix a couple of blocks down the street.

Yep, I (used) to eat lunch there once a week from their hot bar, I work just down the street, but we are all working from home until at least May 1st. I think May 1st is the new target date to return for many companies and I can honest see that being the new re-opening date for Disney parks as well.

 

[thomas998]

I'm pretty sure the mortality rate in South Korea is closer to 1% than 1.5%, and despite more widespread testing than anywhere else they almost certainly had cases that were never tested. It's not like they were just testing the whole population even if they were completely asymptomatic.

Actually the South Koreans were very vigilant in testing to begin with which is why they have managed to keep the numbers so low. Their current mortality rate is 1.1% but they still have 59 patients in critical condition so given the 1.1% is based on 104 deaths, if they lose even half of the 59 the rate will be very close to the 1.5%.

 

[flynnibus]

The Supreme Court is not infallible and has made bad decisions in the past.

I don’t disagree - but that example still doesn’t support doesn’t support the postulate that national emergency empowers the president to throw out the constitution.... because at the time, the actions made were done within what was believed to be constitutional... and at the standard of the time, confirmed.

You cant apply today’s standards in hindsight and redefine the scope of power the actions were taken under.

 

[UNCgolf]

I think you are putting too much weight on the Korematsu decision which is ignored by the courts to this day as being a bad decision and one that will forever be ignored. Trump tried to use Korematsu to support his travel ban and was rebuffed by the Supreme Court with Roberts writing "The dissent's reference to Korematsu, however, affords this Court the opportunity to make express what is already obvious: Korematsu was gravely wrong the day it was decided, has been overruled in the court of history, and—to be clear—'has no place in law under the Constitution'" So stop hanging your hat on past opinions that were wrong. The Supreme Court is not infallible and has made bad decisions in the past.

Actions taken under Roosevelt and Truman have no bearing now. There is a specific legal framework (the National Emergencies Act of 1976) for national emergencies codified by Congress that lays out the specific actions given to a President during a national emergency. It doesn't give the President free reign to do whatever he pleases.

 

[disneygeek90]

-Fever was around 100 (now gone)
-Sore throat for five days
-Tons of thick mucus in my throat (thus sore throat) but no nasal congestion
-sporadic cough (not severe)
-shortness of breath, but I’m pretty fit, so not dangerous. I can usually work out for an hour and a half. Recently, if I walked 15 min, I was gasping like I had run 5 miles
-bad headache
-muscle and body aches
-serious fatigue
-chill
-clammy

Not severe, but not pleasant. A bad flu without all the snot.

I have some follow up questions, if you don't mind. What was your first symptom, how quickly did that progress into the rest of the symptoms? How many days have you been feeling symptoms overall?

 

[HongKongFooy]

Soon no walking Main Streets or Soarin' around for us indefinitely .....

I expect a national order to stay off public streets(exempting certain qualified folk of course) and no more passenger plane travel coming soon.



Escalation/enhanced measures are happening daily so be ready for no more Mississippi paddleboats or train rides in the wilderness.