Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyCane]

To try and get an idea of how much immunity (vaccine + natural) there is in FL, I used yesterday's report and for each age range I calculated the percent of the population that was a case and how many in that range were unvaccinated. I used that to calculate how many of the unvaccinated likely have natural immunity (thus removing the overlap between the prior infected being vaccinated) and totaled the "immune." I performed the calculation again with the case number doubled as all estimates seem to conclude that there were at least 2x the infections vs. known cases.

Age	% Protected	Double Cases
0-11	5.3%​	10.7%​
12-19	38.8%​	46.5%​
20-29	47.2%​	56.8%​
30-39	53.0%​	60.9%​
40-49	61.2%​	67.2%​
50-59	68.3%​	72.5%​
60-64	76.3%​	78.7%​
65+	84.6%​	85.8%​
Total	56.0%​	61.3%​

This is, based on at least one dose of the vaccine so not all are fully protected yet. We can conclude that somewhere above 55% of the residents of FL are immune by some method. Obviously, that is not high enough for herd immunity yet.

 

[DisneyCane]

That's fine and dandy...but do you think that's getting in front of people who aren't all that interested in being vaccinated or who don't see the virus as a threat?

It's on the Florida DPH Twitter feed...it should be all over Facebook and in OTHER Twitter feeds...places people will actually SEE it.

I can only assume that if they spent the money to produce the ad they either intend to or are running it in more places than their twitter feed. Based on the people included in the ad, it is clearly intended to reach specific vaccine resistant groups.

 

[Flugell]

I apologise if that is the case in Canada, though they have said they are not certain of the benefit and it is based on a small study. However you began by referring to the U.K., as far as I can tell. Everything I have said from the U.K. remains correct as you can see from the NHS site I linked.

I can’t find my original posting but would not have replied in this manner if Canada hadn’t been mentioned.

 

[JoeCamel]

To try and get an idea of how much immunity (vaccine + natural) there is in FL, I used yesterday's report and for each age range I calculated the percent of the population that was a case and how many in that range were unvaccinated. I used that to calculate how many of the unvaccinated likely have natural immunity (thus removing the overlap between the prior infected being vaccinated) and totaled the "immune." I performed the calculation again with the case number doubled as all estimates seem to conclude that there were at least 2x the infections vs. known cases.

Age	% Protected	Double Cases
0-11	5.3%​	10.7%​
12-19	38.8%​	46.5%​
20-29	47.2%​	56.8%​
30-39	53.0%​	60.9%​
40-49	61.2%​	67.2%​
50-59	68.3%​	72.5%​
60-64	76.3%​	78.7%​
65+	84.6%​	85.8%​
Total	56.0%​	61.3%​

This is, based on at least one dose of the vaccine so not all are fully protected yet. We can conclude that somewhere above 55% of the residents of FL are immune by some method. Obviously, that is not high enough for herd immunity yet.

You really can't do numbers like that and not account for waning immunity. I had covid 15 months ago and I have to assume I have little to no immunity from that and nothing against the Delta variant. For now I depend on the vaccine and others to get vaccinated. I was tested for antibodies a few months after I recovered and the result was negative. The test was about 75% accurate at the time so I don't know but you can't assume because someone had covid they are immune to anything.

 

[correcaminos]

Our discussions also included protecting their reluctant grandparents. We wanted to do our best to not be the ones infecting them if it happened.

Ultimately, all boomers on my side of the family got the vax except for one aunt we may never see again, and another in FL who her and her husband posted some horrible things and ultimately jumped to "social media that doesn't censor" as they have gone into the deep end of crazy conspiracy.
DWs side had some reluctants, but we persuaded them by insisting we wouldn't see them until they were vaxed. It may not have been the only factor, but it contributed. A little tough love there.

Socially, we still only unmask indoors with those we know have been. I've got some neighbors who I suspect aren't vaxed based on their only recent removing of a blue and white flag, but I keep a distance. They think they caught it in March of last year, so must be immune. Never a test, mind you, but they were pretty sick, so they must have had it. Unknown if their technically adult kids got vaxed on the QT.

Sometimes I think I had it easy. Being in the trial made all close to me unafraid. I have a distant cousin or two that hold out, but as a whole the people I see often are all vaccinated. I made it my goal to help as many vaccinate as possible too so often in my group so many were getting shots the first week possible. I did have to tell a cousin that there will be no visiting until all are fully vaxxed but as a whole it was easy.

All of my close friends are vaccinated too so socially we are fine. I have no idea about all of my son's friends but enough are that I won't worry about the few unknowns. In fact my kid is heading off to scout camp. Sharing a tent with a vaxxed kid and will mask indoors as camp rule. Since not all kids can be vaccinated, the camp rule is all mask indoors (except when sleeping) to be courteous to the younger campers who cannot. Easier to police too I bet. So we dug out our left over masks from WDW and tossed them in. Most of camp is outdoors though.

Some friends have really surprised me. Some I had conversations about vaccination after being covid positive and they went from not doing it to agreeing to it. Not all people on some sides are that narrow minded. I find it's just the ones who jumped down some conspiracy theory holes that were. Among them some family.

I don't know how to reach them though. The ones who have real issues vaccinating and such I can help and support. The crazies are just so hard!

 

[DisneyCane]

You really can't do numbers like that and not account for waning immunity. I had covid 15 months ago and I have to assume I have little to no immunity from that and nothing against the Delta variant. For now I depend on the vaccine and others to get vaccinated. I was tested for antibodies a few months after I recovered and the result was negative. The test was about 75% accurate at the time so I don't know but you can't assume because someone had covid they are immune to anything.

I may be misunderstanding because I'm not an expert on biology or how the immune system works. However, my understanding is that the long term immunity does not rely on antibodies that keep floating around in your blood stream. What I gather is that your t-cells "learn" to recognize the virus and produce antibodies when you are infected.

 

[JoeCamel]

I may be misunderstanding because I'm not an expert on biology or how the immune system works. However, my understanding is that the long term immunity does not rely on antibodies that keep floating around in your blood stream. What I gather is that your t-cells "learn" to recognize the virus and produce antibodies when you are infected.

True but we have no measure of that. The testing has shown a drop and a vulnerability to Delta so you can't count infected/recovered as immune. There simply is no data to decide how many, how much and if any immunity exists across the recovered. Some are yes, but to try to put a number on it is a futile exercise until more data is developed.

 

[danlb_2000]

True but we have no measure of that. The testing has shown a drop and a vulnerability to Delta so you can't count infected/recovered as immune. There simply is no data to decide how many, how much and if any immunity exists across the recovered. Some are yes, but to try to put a number on it is a futile exercise until more data is developed.

I remember the media running with a few stories of re-infection last year but in the end there weren't wide spreads reports of re-infection. Studying the protection from natural infection is going to get trickier as more people get vaccinated.

 

[correcaminos]

I remember the media running with a few stories of re-infection last year but in the end there weren't wide spreads reports of re-infection. Studying the protection from natural infection is going to get trickier as more people get vaccinated.

149 confirmed reinfections

COVID-19 reinfection tracker

NOTE: This page is no longer being updated. The table below shows confirmed cases of COVID-19 reinfection. The first confirmed case of reinfection was reported in Hong Kong in late August 2020, and 543 other cases were reported over the next year, along with nearly 180,000 suspected cases...

bnonews.com

There's a list of maybe 71k suspected cases as well. Out of like 185 million globally. So .03.04-% had possible but not confirmed reinfections.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Many keep asking “how much is too much” and “how do we solve/end this”?

To both of those questions, I will share this quote from the Director-General of the WHO:
“None of us will be safe until everyone is safe.”

 

[JoeCamel]

I remember the media running with a few stories of re-infection last year but in the end there weren't wide spreads reports of re-infection. Studying the protection from natural infection is going to get trickier as more people get vaccinated.

With Delta circulating we may see an uptick, too early to tell. We are very much in a wait and see how we do mode.

 

[Chi84]

Many keep asking “how much is too much” and “how do we solve/end this”?

To both of those questions, I will share this quote from the Director-General of the WHO:
“None of us will be safe until everyone is safe.”

WHO is a global organization with a tough job - getting wealthy nations to care about what happens to people in less fortunate ones.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

WHO is a global organization with a tough job - getting wealthy nations to care about what happens to people in less fortunate ones.

Very true.

What he said applies at smaller-than-global levels as well.

 

[Polkadotdress]

WHO is a global organization with a tough job - getting wealthy nations to care about what happens to people in less fortunate ones.

I posted the quote because it applies to the US since we seem to have 1) forgotten about the children and 2) assumed the pandemic is over.

Very true.

What he said applies at smaller-than-global levels as well.

Yes. THiS!

 

[hopemax]

Very true.

What he said applies at smaller-than-global levels as well.

So everyone knows Mark Burnett and his most popular reality entertainment, Survivor and The Apprentice. Both represented a pretty cutthroat view of life. However, he had another project which pre-dated those...EcoChallenge. That one showed the dangers of ego and hubris, pushing too hard / powering through and ignoring the signs of your body breaking down, not carrying about the weakest member of your team and being willing to carry their burden at times, and the way nature and the course didn't care about your feelings and could eat you alive. It presents the type of mindset you need to face a pandemic vs how humans usually act, pretty well, actually. What is presumed to be strength can be a weakness and what seems like weakness can be exactly what a particular moment requires.

They revisited it before the pandemic with Amazon footing the bill, but then the pandemic happened and it's kaput again.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I am going to start this post by saying I was wrong before. I never thought we would see numbers like this again. Florida is now up to an as average of 3,392 new cases a day and the US is at 18,272. Why? People need to get vaccinated and continued washing their hands and staying home when sick. These numbers are crazy. Arkansas and Missouri now have an average of over 20 cases a day per 100k and Florida, Louisiana and Nevada are over 15 per 100k. The US is now at 6 per 100k. STOP ACTING STUPID DO THE RIGHT THING AND END THIS. IT IS UP TO ALL OF US. GO TODAY AND GET VACCINATED. THERE IS NO EXCUSE FOR ANYONE EXCEPT THOSE TOLD BY THEIR DOCTORS NOT TO TAKE IT.

I’m not surprised by any of it.

 

[Parker in NYC]

I think the bolded is the key issue here - the virus itself became political.

This. Was I political when I started this thread on 2/18/2020? Just because I was worried about something? It sure as heck felt like that. Actually, I was gobsmacked to discover that it WAS a political decision to even post something! Color me surprised when I assumed it would just be a matter of keeping people safe and finding solutions. Nope, it was - yet again - an excuse to posture and condemn. I mean. For me, only when I posted on this forum (a harmless Disney forum… where something like this could affect the parks somewhere down the line) did I learn that I was somehow being manipulated.

Guess what, the parks closed. Guess what, it didn’t just go away. Maybe instead of fighting about it, we could have come together and taken action. Thank goodness for the vaccines, that’s all I can say at this point.

 

[Lilofan]

This. Was I political when I started this thread on 2/18/2020? Just because I was worried about something? It sure as heck felt like that. Actually, I was gobsmacked to discover that it WAS a political decision to even post something! Color me surprised when I assumed it would just be a matter of keeping people safe and finding solutions. Nope, it was - yet again - an excuse to posture and condemn. I mean. For me, only when I posted on this forum (a harmless Disney forum… where something like this could affect the parks somewhere down the line) did I learn that I was somehow being manipulated.

Guess what, the parks closed. Guess what, it didn’t just go away. Maybe instead of fighting about it, we could have come together and taken action. Thank goodness for the vaccines, that’s all I can say at this point.

When you first posted I was beyond irate on what was happening on targeting Asians in NYC. Your first post which resulted in 5M views, 76K replies really did evolve into an interesting discussion on corona virus , WDW etc.

 

[Parker in NYC]

When you first posted I was beyond irate on what was happening on targeting Asians in NYC. Your first post which resulted in 5M views, 76K replies really did evolve into an interesting discussion on corona virus , WDW etc.

I guess maybe it was a mistake on my part in including that. That’s something I should have foreseen that may have been viewed as some kind of SJW move. But I’ve since learned to hyperscrutinize what I post, since I don’t want to leave any breadcrumbs that suggest any agenda aside from, you know, keeping people safe.

 

[Willmark]

Is it really that simple ?

Half the country hates the other half before the virus was even a thing.

Everyone wants to prove how right they are by putting others down.

It is something more sinister than just leadership and whatever it is it’s magnified x100 times by social media.

Btw I’m a guilty as anyone of this.

I’m on here right now arguing with people instead of trying to understand them.

No you’re not wrong, it really is that simple.

Once Covid reached the US it was inevitable as to what happened and how it spread, it was never going to be stopped.

Why?

The most economically, religiously, politically, socially, ethnically, educationally diverse country on Earth was never going to have a unified response.

Of course that’s if one believes there is a single country to begin with. It can be argued there isn’t one anymore and the divide is accelerating.

YMMV.