Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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BrianLo

BrianLo

Well-Known Member
DisneyDebRob said:
Yeah.. no. When it drops to 3-6% of a usual year you have to look at the biggest reasons for it. It was virtually non existent this year. Again, doctors seem to disagree with you about the main reasons for that. Of course international travel helped in cases, but masks, social distancing and washing and sanitizing and kids not being in school, which is huge for flu transmissions were the main reasons.
www.hsph.harvard.edu

A sharp drop in flu cases during COVID-19 pandemic | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health

Precautions taken to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, including wearing masks and distancing, are likely the major reason for a steep decline of flu cases in the
www.hsph.harvard.edu www.hsph.harvard.edu

www.forbes.com

What Happened To The Flu?

CDC data show 2020-2021 was the mildest flu season on record.
www.forbes.com www.forbes.com
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It's not just influenza. We routine do viral PCR panels and have well before the pandemic. It's a waste of money and unnecessary, but we do. RSV, Paraflu, HMNV, Entero-rhino, other coronaviruses all dropped off a cliff. Not non-existent, but there's been a >90% reduction in respiratory admissions in Peds. Some almost 100%. Replaced in part by mental health and eating disorder.

My post isn't about masks, I honestly don't care about them and am confused why people are so obsessed with this one mitigation. Just that many of the many mitigations, in concert, made a difference.
 
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seascape

Well-Known Member
I don't like the weekly reporting because it takes a full week to know if a state is headed in the right direction or not. However, today has some real good news. Four states are now at 1 case per 100,000, Vermont, South Dakota, Washington D.C. and Nebraska. Nine states are at 2, including NY and California. Ten states are at 3 and 11 are at 4. That means 34 states are at 4 or less and 17 are at 5 or more. The countries average is 4.23. Hopefully, Florida drops on Friday's report because they currently represent 11.66% of the US cases.
 
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DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
I don't like the weekly reporting because it takes a full week to know if a state is headed in the right direction or not. However, today has some real good news. Four states are now at 1 case per 100,000, Vermont, South Dakota, Washington D.C. and Nebraska. Nine states are at 2, including NY and California. Ten states are at 3 and 11 are at 4. That means 34 states are at 4 or less and 17 are at 5 or more. The countries average is 4.23. Hopefully, Florida drops on Friday's report because they currently represent 11.66% of the US cases.
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You have to do some math (divide by 7) but the CDC still seems to get daily data and report what seem to be accurate seven day cases per 100k. Go to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days and then click the "+" sign to expand the data table.

I don't really think the numbers matter anymore. Unless a variant appears for which the vaccines are significantly less effective there is no longer a public health crisis that needs to be managed. Anybody who wishes to be protected against serious illness has ample opportunity to get vaccinated and protect themselves (with the rare exception of people who can't be vaccinated due to medical reasons or for whom the vaccines don't work as well).

Since the vaccination rate is clearly not going to get over 65-70% of the population anytime in the foreseeable future (even CA is only at 59%), the best way to eradicate COVID might be to let the Delta variant rip through the unvaccinated population as quickly as possible to add to the immune population and reach the herd immunity threshold.
 
ImperfectPixie

ImperfectPixie

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
You have to do some math (divide by 7) but the CDC still seems to get daily data and report what seem to be accurate seven day cases per 100k. Go to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days and then click the "+" sign to expand the data table.

I don't really think the numbers matter anymore. Unless a variant appears for which the vaccines are significantly less effective there is no longer a public health crisis that needs to be managed. Anybody who wishes to be protected against serious illness has ample opportunity to get vaccinated and protect themselves (with the rare exception of people who can't be vaccinated due to medical reasons or for whom the vaccines don't work as well).

Since the vaccination rate is clearly not going to get over 65-70% of the population anytime in the foreseeable future (even CA is only at 59%), the best way to eradicate COVID might be to let the Delta variant rip through the unvaccinated population as quickly as possible to add to the immune population and reach the herd immunity threshold.
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And give the virus ample opportunity to mutate even more.
 
Willmark

Willmark

Well-Known Member
Seems that people are forgetting there are a large? Unknown? number of people that had Covid and are now have immunity to it as well. Studies have recently shown it has the same effect as a vaccine.

Point being is that sole focus on vaccine numbers only only tells part of the story. In all likelihood the amount of people now inoculated against the virus is higher that the just the vaccine numbers.

There are recent numerous articles talking about this. I’m not linking to any of them however as it’s a largely fruitless endeavor with dismissing links (as I’ve learned on this site) if one doesn’t like the source.

As I’m all things YMMV as to whether you like the idea or not but it is an actual thing.
 
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seascape

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
You have to do some math (divide by 7) but the CDC still seems to get daily data and report what seem to be accurate seven day cases per 100k. Go to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days and then click the "+" sign to expand the data table.

I don't really think the numbers matter anymore. Unless a variant appears for which the vaccines are significantly less effective there is no longer a public health crisis that needs to be managed. Anybody who wishes to be protected against serious illness has ample opportunity to get vaccinated and protect themselves (with the rare exception of people who can't be vaccinated due to medical reasons or for whom the vaccines don't work as well).

Since the vaccination rate is clearly not going to get over 65-70% of the population anytime in the foreseeable future (even CA is only at 59%), the best way to eradicate COVID might be to let the Delta variant rip through the unvaccinated population as quickly as possible to add to the immune population and reach the herd immunity threshold.
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The problem is the number stays the same for 7 days. While I agree a one day number means little and a 7 day average is better. it does little to show a trend. A moving 7 day average is the best way to know how things are going and to make matters worse there is no uniformity between the states on what day or days to report.

As for what I am looking for is when will the US get to 3 cases per 100,000 and then 2 and finally 1. We are making progress as the northeast is now one of the lowest areas in the US.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
ImperfectPixie said:
So we just throw up our hands and contribute to giving it opportunity. Gotcha.
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For the most part, yes. We should try and encourage vaccinations but beyond that there's not much else to do at this point. If the feared mutation occurs that renders the current vaccines ineffective and it causes a high number of hospitalizations, we'll have to deal with a new emergency at that point. The COVID-19 caused public health emergency that began in March 2020 is over in the USA at this point.
 
D

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
The problem is the number stays the same for 7 days. While I agree a one day number means little and a 7 day average is better. it does little to show a trend. A moving 7 day average is the best way to know how things are going and to make matters worse there is no uniformity between the states on what day or days to report.

As for what I am looking for is when will the US get to 3 cases per 100,000 and then 2 and finally 1. We are making progress as the northeast is now one of the lowest areas in the US.
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I don't think it stays the same for seven days on the CDC site. FL (which publishes weekly) shows 1117 new cases on the map. That's not a weekly total for sure.
 
ParentsOf4

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Since the vaccination rate is clearly not going to get over 65-70% of the population anytime in the foreseeable future (even CA is only at 59%), the best way to eradicate COVID might be to let the Delta variant rip through the unvaccinated population as quickly as possible to add to the immune population and reach the herd immunity threshold.
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DisneyCane said:
It's going to do that anyway in other countries. The worldwide vaccinations aren't happening fast enough to prevent that.
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ImperfectPixie said:
So we just throw up our hands and contribute to giving it opportunity. Gotcha.
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No, instead of trying to force 30% of the U.S. population to get vaccinated, we focus our energies on distributing vaccines to billions of people worldwide who want to get vaccinated.
 
ABQ

ABQ

Well-Known Member
seascape said:
The problem is the number stays the same for 7 days. While I agree a one day number means little and a 7 day average is better. it does little to show a trend. A moving 7 day average is the best way to know how things are going and to make matters worse there is no uniformity between the states on what day or days to report.

As for what I am looking for is when will the US get to 3 cases per 100,000 and then 2 and finally 1. We are making progress as the northeast is now one of the lowest areas in the US.
Click to expand...
Mirroring case counts, hospitalization rates continue to drop, down another 100 on the 7 day trend from yesterday:
1623758718743.png
 
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