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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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ABQ
Well-Known Member
If they don't, I blame the 6 people in Newfoundland and Labrador who skipped it.
Polkadotdress
Well-Known Member
OHHH! Thanks for sharing! That's exciting news!
Figgy1
Well-Known Member
You're welcome
BrianLo
Well-Known Member
Yeah.. no. When it drops to 3-6% of a usual year you have to look at the biggest reasons for it. It was virtually non existent this year. Again, doctors seem to disagree with you about the main reasons for that. Of course international travel helped in cases, but masks, social distancing and washing and sanitizing and kids not being in school, which is huge for flu transmissions were the main reasons.
A sharp drop in flu cases during COVID-19 pandemic | Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health
Precautions taken to fight the COVID-19 pandemic, including wearing masks and distancing, are likely the major reason for a steep decline of flu cases in thewww.hsph.harvard.edu
What Happened To The Flu?
CDC data show 2020-2021 was the mildest flu season on record.www.forbes.com
It's not just influenza. We routine do viral PCR panels and have well before the pandemic. It's a waste of money and unnecessary, but we do. RSV, Paraflu, HMNV, Entero-rhino, other coronaviruses all dropped off a cliff. Not non-existent, but there's been a >90% reduction in respiratory admissions in Peds. Some almost 100%. Replaced in part by mental health and eating disorder.
My post isn't about masks, I honestly don't care about them and am confused why people are so obsessed with this one mitigation. Just that many of the many mitigations, in concert, made a difference.
I don't like the weekly reporting because it takes a full week to know if a state is headed in the right direction or not. However, today has some real good news. Four states are now at 1 case per 100,000, Vermont, South Dakota, Washington D.C. and Nebraska. Nine states are at 2, including NY and California. Ten states are at 3 and 11 are at 4. That means 34 states are at 4 or less and 17 are at 5 or more. The countries average is 4.23. Hopefully, Florida drops on Friday's report because they currently represent 11.66% of the US cases.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
You have to do some math (divide by 7) but the CDC still seems to get daily data and report what seem to be accurate seven day cases per 100k. Go to https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_casesper100klast7days and then click the "+" sign to expand the data table.
I don't really think the numbers matter anymore. Unless a variant appears for which the vaccines are significantly less effective there is no longer a public health crisis that needs to be managed. Anybody who wishes to be protected against serious illness has ample opportunity to get vaccinated and protect themselves (with the rare exception of people who can't be vaccinated due to medical reasons or for whom the vaccines don't work as well).
Since the vaccination rate is clearly not going to get over 65-70% of the population anytime in the foreseeable future (even CA is only at 59%), the best way to eradicate COVID might be to let the Delta variant rip through the unvaccinated population as quickly as possible to add to the immune population and reach the herd immunity threshold.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
And give the virus ample opportunity to mutate even more.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
It's going to do that anyway in other countries. The worldwide vaccinations aren't happening fast enough to prevent that.
Willmark
Well-Known Member
Seems that people are forgetting there are a large? Unknown? number of people that had Covid and are now have immunity to it as well. Studies have recently shown it has the same effect as a vaccine.
Point being is that sole focus on vaccine numbers only only tells part of the story. In all likelihood the amount of people now inoculated against the virus is higher that the just the vaccine numbers.
There are recent numerous articles talking about this. I’m not linking to any of them however as it’s a largely fruitless endeavor with dismissing links (as I’ve learned on this site) if one doesn’t like the source.
As I’m all things YMMV as to whether you like the idea or not but it is an actual thing.
Point being is that sole focus on vaccine numbers only only tells part of the story. In all likelihood the amount of people now inoculated against the virus is higher that the just the vaccine numbers.
There are recent numerous articles talking about this. I’m not linking to any of them however as it’s a largely fruitless endeavor with dismissing links (as I’ve learned on this site) if one doesn’t like the source.
As I’m all things YMMV as to whether you like the idea or not but it is an actual thing.
Willmark
Well-Known Member
100% correct.
wannabeBelle
Well-Known Member
I was hoping for you though!!! Marie
The problem is the number stays the same for 7 days. While I agree a one day number means little and a 7 day average is better. it does little to show a trend. A moving 7 day average is the best way to know how things are going and to make matters worse there is no uniformity between the states on what day or days to report.
As for what I am looking for is when will the US get to 3 cases per 100,000 and then 2 and finally 1. We are making progress as the northeast is now one of the lowest areas in the US.
ImperfectPixie
Well-Known Member
So we just throw up our hands and contribute to giving it opportunity. Gotcha.
wannabeBelle
Well-Known Member
Correct Seascape, I was seeing on the local news today that NY state is at 69.9% for at least one vaccination. Marie
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
For the most part, yes. We should try and encourage vaccinations but beyond that there's not much else to do at this point. If the feared mutation occurs that renders the current vaccines ineffective and it causes a high number of hospitalizations, we'll have to deal with a new emergency at that point. The COVID-19 caused public health emergency that began in March 2020 is over in the USA at this point.
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
I don't think it stays the same for seven days on the CDC site. FL (which publishes weekly) shows 1117 new cases on the map. That's not a weekly total for sure.
ParentsOf4
Well-Known Member
No, instead of trying to force 30% of the U.S. population to get vaccinated, we focus our energies on distributing vaccines to billions of people worldwide who want to get vaccinated.
ABQ
Well-Known Member
Mirroring case counts, hospitalization rates continue to drop, down another 100 on the 7 day trend from yesterday:
Heppenheimer
Well-Known Member
The only published papers I could find on this matter don't say quite what you claim.
This observational study from Denmark found that prior infection from COVID overall reduced the risk of subsequent infection by 80%. Pretty substantial, but less than most of the vaccines available currently in first world countries. Crucially, though, the reduction in infections for people over age 65 in this cohort was only 47%. The abstract, though, doesn't mention the severity of the re-infection.
This study from the UK looked at the question from a slightly different angle, but found similar results. Prior infection was 84% protective against re-infection:
SARS-CoV-2 infection rates of antibody-positive compared with antibody-negative health-care workers in England: a large, multicentre, prospective cohort study (SIREN) - PubMed
Department of Health and Social Care of the UK Government, Public Health England, The National Institute for Health Research, with contributions from the Scottish, Welsh and Northern Irish governments.
pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov
Again, pretty good, but substantially lower than immunity generated by the vaccines. This study was performed on hospital workers, so the cohort above age 65 was probably substantially lower than the Danish study.
But just like we don't know the duration of immunity from the vaccines yet, we also don't know how long natural immunity will last. And the question of protection from variants is also not yet known.
The most helpful hypothetical study would be one that compares protection from infection via vaccine versus prior infection during a single surge. But I couldn't find one that answers this question, and given the increasingly high rates of vaccination in the OECD countries, we may not see such a study.
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