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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Sure, agree. I'm not advocating for immediate change and completely agree, I'd set a target of June 1st for Disney. Get past the memorial day rush, and then start returning quickly to a more normal operating mode so that by start of summer (June 15th, let's say), we're pretty much back.
That would likely sync up well with DLR if CA really drops their remaining Covid restrictions mid-June. I think the goal may be full speed ahead for the first week of July.
 

Patcheslee

Well-Known Member
Three things. First, I have not seen anyone say that opening has caused a drop in cases. What they have been saying is that opening has not caused a spike. As you say, that means something else is going on, but where I believe you are wrong, is that we have a pretty good idea what thing is and it is under our control -- vaccination. Also, naturally developed immunity due to previous exposure. Because of these two things, it's becoming increasingly clear to an objective data driven observer, that we are rapidly approaching or already have approached the point where restrictions are no longer needed to prevent a massive spread.

Second, I disagree with you on India -- it was completely predictable. The only surprising thing is why it took so long to pop. Third world countries do not have access to the vaccines yet and so the virus will continue to rage out of control until they do.

Third, I too am cautious. But at this point, everyone over 16 had ready access to the vaccine -- literally any CVS takes walk-ins now. (It's unfortunate we can't vaccinate our children yet, but statistically they are at very low risk -- the flu is more dangerous to children, based on the numbers). To further control the virus we need to figure out how to encourage more people to get vaccinated. There will always be hyperbolic talking heads shilling entertainment as news. We need to tune out the noise and do whatever we can to get the vaccination number up, because all evidence suggests that the higher that goes, the more under control the virus becomes.
Not every CVS is allowing walk-ins despite the company statement. There's still the same "no vaccinations available at our site" sign that has been there since March. BUT if you get on the appointment site they show available. Some places just don't feel the need to have walk ins I guess?
 

orky8

Well-Known Member
Not every CVS is allowing walk-ins despite the company statement. There's still the same "no vaccinations available at our site" sign that has been there since March. BUT if you get on the appointment site they show available. Some places just don't feel the need to have walk ins I guess?
OK, then masks till 2022? The point being, the vaccine is readily available in this country. But, I think you knew that and appreciate you correcting this minor point.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
In the unlikely scenario of a massive spike in cases due to unvaccinated people a mask rule does little to help since most of the unvaccinated also won’t wear masks. What we would need to do is shift to plan B which is vaccine passports. If you prevent the unvaccinated from interaction in most public settings it will drive them in to get vaccinated. I am more optimistic that we get to the 70% vaccinated mark and it won’t be needed.

I'm confident we will hit 70% in many regions. Maybe even nationally. I fear that some large regions will be way below 70%.
And the regions that are way below will also be the regions that would openly revolt against passports. And they are the regions that already have the least mitigation.

Those areas tend to be rural, which slightly reduces risk of Covid spread. So maybe these under-performing areas won't matter. But it's why I suspect we will continue to see mini-spikes pop up. The deep south is mostly unlikely to reach even 50% of the population vaccinated. That's a recipe for the virus to continue to circulate.
 

hopemax

Well-Known Member
It's true that areas with lots of mitigations didn't do much better. That's weird. It's true that India was thought by many scientists to have acquired basic herd immunity because of widespread infection, but now they have a devastating surge. That's weird. It's true that even after a pretty good start on vaccines, Michigan had/has the most cases in the country and full hospitals. That's weird.

I think it's reasonable to have conversations about easing mask requirements, and there are good reasons to do so. But let's do it with humility and with one eye on places like Israel and one eye on places like India. We are not masters of this situation yet.
Lack of understanding by lay people does not make situations weird.

People jumped to all sorts of conclusions and expectations and then when things worked out differently than what they predicted they declare it weird instead of saying they didn't understand and made wrong predictions. Michigan is not weird, because MI had low natural immunity, and did not have enough people vaccinated to have controlled cases by the time the variant came. And like I guessed before, I bet it got to MI before elsewhere because necessary UK - Toronto - Detroit travel still occurred despite broad general travel restrictions. India is not weird, because actual infectious disease people did not think they had reached herd immunity. It was politics, same as Brazil. A leader who wanted things to end and declared it was over because of reasons, and there are always some scientists willing to back it up. The data analysis is only now getting published to quantify the effects mitigations had, and places actually did do better with it. But people looked at a couple of graphs, believed the hot take that it did nothing because that's what they wanted to believe and in general made a lot of assumptions without digging deeper and then that became the truth, regardless of what studies get published later.
 

Incomudro

Well-Known Member
It could and would quickly change if the situation was to get worse and the numbers were to spike upwards. It's not the maskless vaccinated people I'm worried about, it's the amount of unvaccinated people who will most likely get infected and prolong this mask misery and restrictions on the rest of us. I've been taken back by the amount of non vaccinated people in real life, who still think this is a scam and a way for the government to control us. This virus is depending on those unvaccinated people, especially those who won't wear masks, to keep itself alive and spreading to next host.
I really wish more people understood this, or that various aspects of the government and media would make it more understandable to the average person.
Virus's need hosts.
They need to hop from one host to another, to another, etc.
Without hosts, they die out.
 

Incomudro

Well-Known Member
I really wish more people understood this, or that various aspects of the government and media would make it more understandable to the average person.
Virus's need hosts.
They need to hop from one host to another, to another, etc.
Without hosts, they die out.
Oh, and vaccinations are the quickest and most effective way to break the chain of hosts.
When covid broke out, I saw some very clear illustrations circulating in the media depicting how each infected person infects two or more people who each infect two or more people, and infections rapidly compound that way. Like the old Faberge' Organics commercial.
How about some clear illustrations of how vaccinations interrupt that process?
 

Jenny72

Well-Known Member
I think the explanations offered here about why surges occur are reasonable, but they're not predictive. It's hindsight. So we don't know if the next surge will be in Texas, Mississippi, Africa, Japan, or all of the above. And unless you can predict that, all of this talk about how you personally knew this would happen is not that helpful. I didn't hear anyone saying, "watch out, Michigan!" a few months ago.

Yes, of course vaccines help us stop surges, and so far they are only thing that actually works. But as we can see, we have some challenges there. So we don't know what will happen in areas with lower vaccination rates, or when.
 

MickeyLuv'r

Well-Known Member
We have to wear masks until 2022....NOOOOOOOOO!!! Please don't say that....😭
The whole debate about masks kinda cracks me up.

A mask is nothing compared to a number of items women have worn/tolerated for years: Spanx/girdles, high heeled shoes, make-up, and bras (especially larger sized bras).

A few weeks ago, my local newspaper ran an article about how dress codes have relaxed for those who can work from home. Many women have stopped wearing the items listed above, and more, and they aren't welcoming those items back!

Recently WDW relaxed their dress code, so we'll see. The country is re-thinking many things right now.

I dunno, it just cracks me up a little. Like perhaps we're losing a little perspective.
 

DCBaker

Premium Member
Current Florida vaccine report -

Screen Shot 2021-05-10 at 2.57.02 PM.png
Screen Shot 2021-05-10 at 2.57.13 PM.png
 

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
I think the explanations offered here about why surges occur are reasonable, but they're not predictive. It's hindsight. So we don't know if the next surge will be in Texas, Mississippi, Africa, Japan, or all of the above. And unless you can predict that, all of this talk about how you personally knew this would happen is not that helpful. I didn't hear anyone saying, "watch out, Michigan!" a few months ago.

Yes, of course vaccines help us stop surges, and so far they are only thing that actually works. But as we can see, we have some challenges there. So we don't know what will happen in areas with lower vaccination rates, or when.
What we do know is areas with lower vaccination rates, or vaccination + seroprevalence, will have it worse than areas with higher rates of vaccination. When, how bad, and for how long can be modeled but not fully predicted.

Especially now that we have seasonality helping drive things down naturally, it’s time to stack the deck in our favor.
 

wdisney9000

Well-Known Member
I don't know why people focus on the rules of humans instead of the parameters set by the virus. Not wearing a mask is not getting away with anything, it's just potentially subjecting people to the virus, which doesn't care about societal rules or freedom.
The parameters led to guidelines. The guidelines have been nothing more than theater. People championed the guidelines of temperature screening and constant cleaning and disinfecting surfaces. They demanded it to keep everyone safe. Now, the same people all agree that temperature screening and cleaning surfaces is a waste of time and resources.

The CDC has flip flopped and quietly changed numbers more times than I can count. They recently dropped covid deaths by 5% and even changed the numbers on comorbidity, but nobodies talking about that.

And I'm not saying masks offer nothing. But it's been 14 months since "2 weeks to slow the spread" and by now, EVERYBODY has come into contact with covid in one form or another. And let's dispense with any pleasant thoughts that people are wearing masks to prevent spreading the virus. People wear the masks because they think it may prevent them from getting covid, which again, they've already come in contact with. Go to any shopping center or busy area and see how many masks are carelessly discarded on the ground, even within ten feet from a trash can. If people were wearing the mask to protect those around them they would not be so haphazard with discarding of their germ infested mask that they've been breathing in and leaving hanging on their rearview mirror baking in the Sun for days on end.

Which also brings up the question of why has there never been any strict protocol for discarding masks? These are the most germ infested things on the planet which are not only carrying germs from covid but Lord knows what else yet there is no strict protocol for how to discard them or any type of containment system.

They are however polluting our oceans and popping up in random places where they're being discarded and dumped by trash companies or they're just left to rot on the ground. Why is the CDC and Fauci not issuing guidelines for discarding these absolutely disgusting germ infested pieces of fabric that contain "the most deadly virus" we've seen in several generations?

Why? Because it's theater.
 

FanforDisney

New Member
Follow Israel as an example. I'm not saying 0 cases per week. But only trivial levels of disease that can easily be contact traced and contained.
Is there any reason to believe we can't do as well as Israel? Is American Covid different than Israeli Covid? They are down to under 0.5 cases per 100,000 -- and they are still dropping. Yesterday, they had 7 cases. The American equivalent would be about 200 cases per day.



We should aim for the same target as Israel.
If you are aiming at 200 cases per day, you will be waiting for a very long time, its not happening this year, next year.....
 

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