Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[FormerMember]

I believe we the general public will be wearing masks until next year sometime.

Except in the 25 or so states without masks.

 

[hopemax]

The thing about predicting what will happen with indoor masks after October based on the state of things today, IMO, is a bit like saying hurricane precautions are unnecessary Jan-May, so we definitely also don't need them from June-November. We know that last year we had a horrible surge, from Halloween to New Years. Hopefully, this year will be manageable, but we won't really know until it comes. But the impression I get is, no matter how many cases might happen, if there are indoor masks, people are going to lose their minds. IMO, for public health, experts are going to want the option for mitigations this first year with vax in play. I expect we will end up with one set of recommendations for Oct-March, and another for April-Sept, and cold & flu season will be rebranded "CFC season - cold, flu, covid."

 

[Mr. Moderate]

The CDC guidance already allows for vaccinated people to go unmasked in most situations, so it would surprise me to see a lot of masks in 2022.

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/vaccines/fully-vaccinated.html

It could and would quickly change if the situation was to get worse and the numbers were to spike upwards. It's not the maskless vaccinated people I'm worried about, it's the amount of unvaccinated people who will most likely get infected and prolong this mask misery and restrictions on the rest of us. I've been taken back by the amount of non vaccinated people in real life, who still think this is a scam and a way for the government to control us. This virus is depending on those unvaccinated people, especially those who won't wear masks, to keep itself alive and spreading to next host.

 

[GoofGoof]

Except in the 25 or so states without masks.

To be completely accurate there are zero states right now with no masks anywhere. So far even FL has not gone as far as attempting to ban private businesses from requiring masks. If businesses try to keep masks required into 2022 I agree that’s likely to change in some states.

 

[DisneyFan32]

The thing about predicting what will happen with indoor masks after October based on the state of things today, IMO, is a bit like saying hurricane precautions are unnecessary Jan-May, so we definitely also don't need them from June-November. We know that last year we had a horrible surge, from Halloween to New Years. Hopefully, this year will be manageable, but we won't really know until it comes. But the impression I get is, no matter how many cases might happen, if there are indoor masks, people are going to lose their minds. IMO, for public health, experts are going to want the option for mitigations this first year with vax in play. I expect we will end up with one set of recommendations for Oct-March, and another for April-Sept, and cold & flu season will be rebranded "CFC season - cold, flu, covid."

So I may to wear mask in Oct-March?

 

[mmascari]

I just can't imagine that Disney wants the 50th to be celebrated with masks. I mean...... the 50th anniversary is going to get a TON of press and will be a promotional goldmine for years. Do they really want all the pictures etc. to have people masked and distanced? I'm with you, no masks my Oct. 1st. How long before that? Who the heck knows.

Earlier, I suggested replacing "mask" with "pants" in all posts. In that spirit:

I just can't imagine that Disney wants the 50th to be celebrated with pants. I mean...... the 50th anniversary is going to get a TON of press and will be a promotional goldmine for years. Do they really want all the pictures etc. to have people panted and distanced? I'm with you, no pants by Oct. 1st.

That's a very different Disney than I'm used to seeing, unless we're just talking about Donald.

 

[GoofGoof]

It could and would quickly change if the situation was to get worse and the numbers were to spike upwards. It's not the maskless vaccinated people I'm worried about, it's the amount of unvaccinated people who will most likely get infected and prolong this mask misery and restrictions on the rest of us. I've been taken back by the amount of non vaccinated people in real life, who still think this is a scam and a way for the government to control us. This virus is depending on those unvaccinated people, especially those who won't wear masks, to keep itself alive and spreading to next host.

In the unlikely scenario of a massive spike in cases due to unvaccinated people a mask rule does little to help since most of the unvaccinated also won’t wear masks. What we would need to do is shift to plan B which is vaccine passports. If you prevent the unvaccinated from interaction in most public settings it will drive them in to get vaccinated. I am more optimistic that we get to the 70% vaccinated mark and it won’t be needed.

 

[DisneyFan32]

In the unlikely scenario of a massive spike in cases due to unvaccinated people a mask rule does little to help since most of the unvaccinated also won’t wear masks. What we would need to do is shift to plan B which is vaccine passports. If you prevent the unvaccinated from interaction in most public settings it will drive them in to get vaccinated. I am more optimistic that we get to the 70% vaccinated mark and it won’t be needed.

As we don't wear masks in general public like theme parks, NYC, movie theaters, etc... soon anymore by late summer or fall?

 

[Jenny72]

It's true that areas with lots of mitigations didn't do much better. That's weird. It's true that India was thought by many scientists to have acquired basic herd immunity because of widespread infection, but now they have a devastating surge. That's weird. It's true that even after a pretty good start on vaccines, Michigan had/has the most cases in the country and full hospitals. That's weird.

I think it's reasonable to have conversations about easing mask requirements, and there are good reasons to do so. But let's do it with humility and with one eye on places like Israel and one eye on places like India. We are not masters of this situation yet.

 

[orky8]

The fact that cases are low in places that have fully opened is good news, but I wouldn't crow about it as if opening caused a drop in cases. At least, there's no known mechanism by which that would occur. That means something else is going on that is not under our control.

What this type of pattern (or lack of a pattern) tells me is that we still don't fully understand the virus. It has surged in ways that no one predicted, including a human tragedy in India. There are reports of re-infections there but no one really knows because it's too chaotic. This is the kind of thing that gives me pause when people say, "Epidemic over. Let's go back to normal." We could all use a little humility here.

I'll be the first to admit that I err on the cautious side (I'm sure many would say overcautious side), so I'm willing to listen. But how can we have a conversation when popular pundits are saying that the vaccine has likely killed many people (they won't tell us how many they've killed!) and Americans will be forced to get a vaccine against their will, and all kinds of flat-out nonsense? I don't know how to have a rational conversation like this.

Three things. First, I have not seen anyone say that opening has caused a drop in cases. What they have been saying is that opening has not caused a spike. As you say, that means something else is going on, but where I believe you are wrong, is that we have a pretty good idea what thing is and it is under our control -- vaccination. Also, naturally developed immunity due to previous exposure. Because of these two things, it's becoming increasingly clear to an objective data driven observer, that we are rapidly approaching or already have approached the point where restrictions are no longer needed to prevent a massive spread.

Second, I disagree with you on India -- it was completely predictable. The only surprising thing is why it took so long to pop. Third world countries do not have access to the vaccines yet and so the virus will continue to rage out of control until they do.

Third, I too am cautious. But at this point, everyone over 16 had ready access to the vaccine -- literally almost any CVS takes walk-ins now. (It's unfortunate we can't vaccinate our children yet, but statistically they are at very low risk -- the flu is more dangerous to children, based on the numbers). To further control the virus we need to figure out how to encourage more people to get vaccinated. There will always be hyperbolic talking heads shilling entertainment as news. We need to tune out the noise and do whatever we can to get the vaccination number up, because all evidence suggests that the higher that goes, the more under control the virus becomes.

EDIT: It's been pointed out that not every CVS allows walk-ins, despite their company saying otherwise, so I've made a slight edit above.

 

[GaBoy]

Respectfully saying, I doubt it. From what information I'm reading and watching trends, working at a hospital, I believe we the general public will be wearing masks until next year sometime. FTR, I hate wearing masks and would love nothing more than to go back to the life we once had, but if I had to bet money, I don't think we as Americans will be out of the woods just yet. For some illogical reason, there's just too many in our country that aren't taking the vaccine, subscribe to the fear mongering out there, and in some cases, are defiant in their reasoning. The only way we can put this virus behind us is for all of us to be vaccinated and most likely on a yearly basis too. This is what some of the doctors at the hospital I work at, feel is the most likely scenario and I have to agree.

I would love nothing more to be mask free on my upcoming trip in October, but I have resigned myself not to expect it. YMMV.

Good luck with that in the SE. You would have to get them back into masks to continue their wearing them.

 

[GoofGoof]

Third, I too am cautious. But at this point, everyone over 16 had ready access to the vaccine -- literally any CVS takes walk-ins now. (It's unfortunate we can't vaccinate our children yet, but statistically they are at very low risk -- the flu is more dangerous to children, based on the numbers). To further control the virus we need to figure out how to encourage more people to get vaccinated. There will always be hyperbolic talking heads shilling entertainment as news. We need to tune out the noise and do whatever we can to get the vaccination number up, because all evidence suggests that the higher that goes, the more under control the virus becomes.

One thing to keep in mind is that the vaccine cycle takes up to 6 weeks to complete. Its been 3 weeks since the vaccine was opened to anyone who wants it so even for people who got it on day 1 of that they won’t complete their cycle for 3 more weeks. I think it’s fair to say at some point that everyone had their shot so too bad if you didn’t get it, but we aren’t there yet. To be fair to those who didn‘t jump the line and actually waited their turn we should at least wait another few weeks to a month to consider wide scale relaxing of all restrictions, especially considering many of the last people eligible work in public facing jobs (like Disney CMs).

I agree we need more people vaccinated. I favor a combination of a firm vaccination percent target to show a clear, measurable and attainable goal we can all work towards. I’d do that in combination with a financial incentive. Tie a smaller stimulus check to vaccination status. If you get the vaccine you get $500 in stimulus money.

 

[jlhwdw]

I'm as bleeding heart liberal as they come, but both Abbott and DeSantis haven't had the blood on their hands many stay at home warriors said they would.

 

[orky8]

One thing to keep in mind is that the vaccine cycle takes up to 6 weeks to complete. Its been 3 weeks since the vaccine was opened to anyone who wants it so even for people who got it on day 1 of that they won’t complete their cycle for 3 more weeks. I think it’s fair to say at some point that everyone had their shot so too bad if you didn’t get it, but we aren’t there yet. To be fair to those who didn‘t jump the line and actually waited their turn we should at least wait another few weeks to a month to consider wide scale relaxing of all restrictions, especially considering many of the last people eligible work in public facing jobs (like Disney CMs).

I agree we need more people vaccinated. I favor a combination of a firm vaccination percent target to show a clear, measurable and attainable goal we can all work towards. I’d do that in combination with a financial incentive. Tie a smaller stimulus check to vaccination status. If you get the vaccine you get $500 in stimulus money.

Sure, agree. I'm not advocating for immediate change and completely agree, I'd set a target of June 1st for Disney. Get past the memorial day rush, and then start returning quickly to a more normal operating mode so that by start of summer (June 15th, let's say), we're pretty much back.

 

[GoofGoof]

Sure, agree. I'm not advocating for immediate change and completely agree, I'd set a target of June 1st for Disney. Get past the memorial day rush, and then start returning quickly to a more normal operating mode so that by start of summer (June 15th, let's say), we're pretty much back.

That would likely sync up well with DLR if CA really drops their remaining Covid restrictions mid-June. I think the goal may be full speed ahead for the first week of July.

 

[Patcheslee]

Three things. First, I have not seen anyone say that opening has caused a drop in cases. What they have been saying is that opening has not caused a spike. As you say, that means something else is going on, but where I believe you are wrong, is that we have a pretty good idea what thing is and it is under our control -- vaccination. Also, naturally developed immunity due to previous exposure. Because of these two things, it's becoming increasingly clear to an objective data driven observer, that we are rapidly approaching or already have approached the point where restrictions are no longer needed to prevent a massive spread.

Second, I disagree with you on India -- it was completely predictable. The only surprising thing is why it took so long to pop. Third world countries do not have access to the vaccines yet and so the virus will continue to rage out of control until they do.

Third, I too am cautious. But at this point, everyone over 16 had ready access to the vaccine -- literally any CVS takes walk-ins now. (It's unfortunate we can't vaccinate our children yet, but statistically they are at very low risk -- the flu is more dangerous to children, based on the numbers). To further control the virus we need to figure out how to encourage more people to get vaccinated. There will always be hyperbolic talking heads shilling entertainment as news. We need to tune out the noise and do whatever we can to get the vaccination number up, because all evidence suggests that the higher that goes, the more under control the virus becomes.

Not every CVS is allowing walk-ins despite the company statement. There's still the same "no vaccinations available at our site" sign that has been there since March. BUT if you get on the appointment site they show available. Some places just don't feel the need to have walk ins I guess?

 

[orky8]

Not every CVS is allowing walk-ins despite the company statement. There's still the same "no vaccinations available at our site" sign that has been there since March. BUT if you get on the appointment site they show available. Some places just don't feel the need to have walk ins I guess?

OK, then masks till 2022? The point being, the vaccine is readily available in this country. But, I think you knew that and appreciate you correcting this minor point.

 

[havoc315]

In the unlikely scenario of a massive spike in cases due to unvaccinated people a mask rule does little to help since most of the unvaccinated also won’t wear masks. What we would need to do is shift to plan B which is vaccine passports. If you prevent the unvaccinated from interaction in most public settings it will drive them in to get vaccinated. I am more optimistic that we get to the 70% vaccinated mark and it won’t be needed.

I'm confident we will hit 70% in many regions. Maybe even nationally. I fear that some large regions will be way below 70%.
And the regions that are way below will also be the regions that would openly revolt against passports. And they are the regions that already have the least mitigation.

Those areas tend to be rural, which slightly reduces risk of Covid spread. So maybe these under-performing areas won't matter. But it's why I suspect we will continue to see mini-spikes pop up. The deep south is mostly unlikely to reach even 50% of the population vaccinated. That's a recipe for the virus to continue to circulate.

 

[hopemax]

It's true that areas with lots of mitigations didn't do much better. That's weird. It's true that India was thought by many scientists to have acquired basic herd immunity because of widespread infection, but now they have a devastating surge. That's weird. It's true that even after a pretty good start on vaccines, Michigan had/has the most cases in the country and full hospitals. That's weird.

I think it's reasonable to have conversations about easing mask requirements, and there are good reasons to do so. But let's do it with humility and with one eye on places like Israel and one eye on places like India. We are not masters of this situation yet.

Lack of understanding by lay people does not make situations weird.

People jumped to all sorts of conclusions and expectations and then when things worked out differently than what they predicted they declare it weird instead of saying they didn't understand and made wrong predictions. Michigan is not weird, because MI had low natural immunity, and did not have enough people vaccinated to have controlled cases by the time the variant came. And like I guessed before, I bet it got to MI before elsewhere because necessary UK - Toronto - Detroit travel still occurred despite broad general travel restrictions. India is not weird, because actual infectious disease people did not think they had reached herd immunity. It was politics, same as Brazil. A leader who wanted things to end and declared it was over because of reasons, and there are always some scientists willing to back it up. The data analysis is only now getting published to quantify the effects mitigations had, and places actually did do better with it. But people looked at a couple of graphs, believed the hot take that it did nothing because that's what they wanted to believe and in general made a lot of assumptions without digging deeper and then that became the truth, regardless of what studies get published later.

 

[Incomudro]

It could and would quickly change if the situation was to get worse and the numbers were to spike upwards. It's not the maskless vaccinated people I'm worried about, it's the amount of unvaccinated people who will most likely get infected and prolong this mask misery and restrictions on the rest of us. I've been taken back by the amount of non vaccinated people in real life, who still think this is a scam and a way for the government to control us. This virus is depending on those unvaccinated people, especially those who won't wear masks, to keep itself alive and spreading to next host.

I really wish more people understood this, or that various aspects of the government and media would make it more understandable to the average person.
Virus's need hosts.
They need to hop from one host to another, to another, etc.
Without hosts, they die out.