I think the explanations offered here about why surges occur are reasonable, but they're not predictive. It's hindsight. So we don't know if the next surge will be in Texas, Mississippi, Africa, Japan, or all of the above. And unless you can predict that, all of this talk about how you personally knew this would happen is not that helpful. I didn't hear anyone saying, "watch out, Michigan!" a few months ago.
Yes, of course vaccines help us stop surges, and so far they are only thing that actually works. But as we can see, we have some challenges there. So we don't know what will happen in areas with lower vaccination rates, or when.