Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[LittleBuford]

The view is that this type of thing has to be tested at some point and agree about the status however if any cases or outbreaks arise this gives the perfect ammunition for the government to introduce vaccine passports for these types of venues

I just don’t think we’re at that point yet. The vaccine rollout is going well enough that I don’t see why the government can’t have waited another month or so.

 

[danlb_2000]

I feel the same way. I don’t see people wearing masks outside anymore since the CDC’s latest numbers (as opposed to recommendations) came out. But I’m at the airport now and mask compliance here is near perfect. Absolutely no social distancing, though.

I am in Southern NJ and we went out to a food truck festival today, and I would say at least 75% of the people were still wearing masks while not eating.

 

[Yodascousin]

I just don’t think we’re at that point yet. The vaccine rollout is going well enough that I don’t see why the government can’t have waited another month or so.

One word...money...festival season and summer sports opening up soon and they don’t want the revenue that creates lost to be honest I’m torn as when is the right time? I think it was JVT that said cases are not going to get much lower for a while

 

[GoofGoof]

I had posted this data the other day but here is the percentage of each age group in FL that has tested positive so far (it is a few days old). The overlap is lower in the 65+ group than it is in the younger groups:

Age	Pct Positive
0-4	4.60%​
5-14	5.75%​
16-24	13.45%​
25-34	13.54%​
35-44	13.05%​
45-54	11.90%​
55-64	9.82%​
65-74	7.10%​
75-84	6.73%​
85+	7.61%​

This is the percentage of people who tested positive so we know some multiple were infected. I'd imagine the multiple is larger the younger you go because a higher percentage of the cases would be expected to be mild or asymptomatic.

Makes sense and going forward the number of people naturally infected will continue to skew younger so in 6 months the disparity will be even larger. We do probably get a little more benefit from natural infection immunity in the younger demographics.

I think the concept of herd immunity has been completely mistaken at this point anyway. I’ve seen numerous articles saying the US cannot reach herd immunity now because we won’t hit 80% vaccinated or some estimated number. Israel right now has under 60% of their total population vaccinated (a fact despite how anyone wants to spin the age differences) they are at 59.6% of the population with 1 dose and 56.3% fully vaccinated. Their cases per 100K are under 1 now. Their R-naught is well below 1. In every measurable way they have reached full herd immunity. They relaxed their outdoor mask rule recently and their entire economy is open. They re still using vaccine passports on a limited basis but more and more that is fading away. The point is that you don’t need 80% of the population to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity and the bigger point is also that you don’t need to reach herd immunity to start relaxing restrictions. As long as cases continue to trend down as we relax then it’s Ok to continue.

So where does that leave us. Israel really hit a point of free falling cases when around 55% of their population had 1 shot. We are at 43.6% with 1 shot. That means around 38M additional first doses to get to 55% of the population. We are still averaging 1.1M new first doses a day so at that pace the first week of June. We also have an advantage that Israel didn‘t have in that kids 12-15 will be approved very soon. That adds 20M+ additional participants and if the uptake is around the same as adults so likely up to 15M additional people vaccinated sometime in May or June. I know some people discount that because they are kids, but teens are spreading Covid now too. It’s a big help to get them done. It is possible we hit 55%+ of the population with at least 1 shot by mid-May if kids get approved Monday (just in case the FDA people read here...Monday would be nice please).

 

[Flugell]

I just don’t think we’re at that point yet. The vaccine rollout is going well enough that I don’t see why the government can’t have waited another month or so.

My thinking is that the best time to do this is while things are generally under control. The next lifting of restrictions for indoor socialisation and pubs etc. is on 17th or 18 th May (from memory) and this type of data could be invaluable. I also suspect there is never the “right” time for this kind of thing!

 

[LittleBuford]

One word...money...festival season and summer sports opening up soon and they don’t want the revenue that creates lost to be honest I’m torn as when is the right time? I think it was JVT that said cases are not going to get much lower for a while

Well, I’m not surprised. “Let the bodies pile high” were the words of the man in charge, so of course public health is of secondary importance to his government.

 

[LittleBuford]

I also suspect there is never the “right” time for this kind of thing!

The right time is when more people are vaccinated, including those crowding into such venues. We’re not far off, so why the rush?

 

[Flugell]

One word...money...festival season and summer sports opening up soon and they don’t want the revenue that creates lost to be honest I’m torn as when is the right time? I think it was JVT that said cases are not going to get much lower for a while

Or alternatively; some people are going to do this anyway. If we can find a proven safe way- then maybe people will follow the recommendations because there is no/little advantage in not! Who knows?
I think better now than after the next unlock. Do it again then and compare data unless, God forbid, this first one is catastrophic.

 

[mickeymiss]

The right time is when more people are vaccinated, including those crowding into such venues. We’re not far off, so why the rush?

I'd like to see a major drop in cases too. There's the vaccine but also the result of the vaccine that I'm interested in. We don't want this to be like the flu shot so I'm willing to wear the mask as long as businesses are open and states aren't trying to ban domestic travel.

 

[Yodascousin]

It’s a tricky balancing act as I’m guessing they want to see if negative tests would work in such a venue for those who refuse to be vaccinated. Like I said if a outbreak occurs it gives the government more ammo to introduce a vaccine passport

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

The right time is when more people are vaccinated, including those crowding into such venues. We’re not far off, so why the rush?

We rushed opening Disney World, indoor restaurants, etc. here in the states.

 

[havoc315]

Interesting dichotomy. Reports that Universal Orlando is removing their 6’ social distancing markers.
Meanwhile, Disney is now adding 6’ markers to the FOTLK queue.

Whether right or wrong, WDW seems intent on slow-walking the return to normalcy, slower than anyplace else. As of now, WDW restaurants are operating at a lower capacity than New York City restaurants (now going to 75%).

 

[Flugell]

The right time is when more people are vaccinated, including those crowding into such venues. We’re not far off, so why the rush?

Because the vaccine has only just opened to the over 40’s in the last couple of days so people who generally attend large parties (not sports, theatres etc.) won’t have had the opportunity to get vaccinated by the time of lifting of more restrictions?
If tests prove to be a reliable measure then that’s a reasonable way to go. Remember every person over the age of 18 can have a free lateral flow test, box of 7, collected from most chemists, doctors, library or delivered by post. You can get as many as you want in total but 1 box at a time. The recommendations are you self administer a test every 3-4 days. The result should be recorded on the NHS app though I’m not convinced this is happening for many negative tests. If you test positive it is recommended that you get a test from an official centre to confirm. It is more common for the lateral flow test to give a false positive than a false negative hence the need for confirmation.

 

[LittleBuford]

Because the vaccine has only just opened to the over 40’s in the last couple of days so people who generally attend large parties (not sports, theatres etc.) won’t have had the opportunity to get vaccinated by the time of lifting of more restrictions?

No-one needs to be attending large parties now. People under 40 can and should wait a few more months for their turn to come.

 

[LittleBuford]

We rushed opening Disney World, indoor restaurants, etc. here in the states.

Similarly, people in the UK were encouraged last summer to eat out, a scheme that some scientists believe contributed to the second wave. We have had so many chances to get this right yet keep making the same mistakes again and again.

 

[HairyChest]

I thought they had found out that asymptomatic people don’t spread the virus? Was there not a study about that? If that is true, why would vaccinated people need to wear masks around the unvaccinated? If not then it makes sense to keep masks on for crowded and indoors Still.

 

[hopemax]

I think the concept of herd immunity has been completely mistaken at this point anyway. I’ve seen numerous articles saying the US cannot reach herd immunity now because we won’t hit 80% vaccinated or some estimated number. Israel right now has under 60% of their total population vaccinated (a fact despite how anyone wants to spin the age differences) they are at 59.6% of the population with 1 dose and 56.3% fully vaccinated. Their cases per 100K are under 1 now. Their R-naught is well below 1. In every measurable way they have reached full herd immunity. They relaxed their outdoor mask rule recently and their entire economy is open. They re still using vaccine passports on a limited basis but more and more that is fading away. The point is that you don’t need 80% of the population to be vaccinated to reach herd immunity and the bigger point is also that you don’t need to reach herd immunity to start relaxing restrictions. As long as cases continue to trend down as we relax then it’s Ok to continue.

The problem is that people, like you , have invented their own definition of herd immunity which is different than the way Infectious Disease people use herd immunity. The proof of real herd immunity won't come from case dropoff. It will come from from how many and the size of future outbreaks. Not that exiting this phase isn't an important milestone, so I am not diminishing the importance of it. But regular people and ID people are side-tracking this, and regular people are using it to say experts are misinforming us, or outright lying or wrong. If this becomes endemic, like cold & flu, we will only have partial herd immunity, not full. For regular people, it will be "good enough." But ID people would still be correct when they say we don't have full herd immunity and mention the higher 80, 90% numbers or if ever.

 

[Yodascousin]

No-one needs to be attending large parties now. People under 40 can and should wait a few more months for their turn to come.

nightclubs and large parties/gatherings won’t happen until June 21st at the earliest so they will be waiting a few more months I truly believe this was to see if vaccine passports will be needed...if a spike occurs then they can be introduced if not then when these things are allowed a negative test would suffice instead of proof of vaccine...therefore they would have to test it before the June 21st date

 

[mickeymiss]

Interesting dichotomy. Reports that Universal Orlando is removing their 6’ social distancing markers.
Meanwhile, Disney is now adding 6’ markers to the FOTLK queue.

Whether right or wrong, WDW seems intent on slow-walking the return to normalcy, slower than anyplace else. As of now, WDW restaurants are operating at a lower capacity than New York City restaurants (now going to 75%).

Have they officially announced removing 6 foot markers? I know the permission is there but Disney also does a few things on their own terms. I'm not aware that temperature checks were ever orders from the CDC or any health agency for example.

 

[danlb_2000]

I thought they had found out that asymptomatic people don’t spread the virus? Was there not a study about that? If that is true, why would vaccinated people need to wear masks around the unvaccinated? If not then it makes sense to keep masks on for crowded and indoors Still.

My guess is that when community spread is still high, even the low risk of a vaccinated person spreading the virus is still of concern.