Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DavidNoble]

We hope. I still maintain not everyone wants the restrictions to ever end.

That seems to be fear-mongering as well (you saying that not everyone wants restrictions to ever end), correct?

Spare me your righteousness. Just answer the question, when does it stop? Specifics would be appreciated. Quite frankly the fact that no can or wants to answer this question should concern everyone.

If the vacine works and is safe and effective at providing immunity, and everyone has access to it (supply exceeding demand, where we are now) when does it stop?

It stops when:

1) Everyone who wants a vaccine can get one (while some areas are seeing drops in appointments, other areas are still constrained and it takes about 5-6 weeks after the first dose to get fully vaccinated so we're probably looking at mid-June before that is the case)
2) Herd immunity reaches ~70%
3) Evidence that cases are dropping consistently for 2-3 weeks following reaching herd immunity to ensure that is the correct number (because no one actually knows if 70% is the magical number or if needs to be closer to 80%)
4) Further studies are done to understand how long antibodies exist
5) Further studies are done to understand transmission from those who are fully vaccinated

A lot of this is able to be done in parallel, but we're closer to the reality of returning back to normal than not.

 

[monothingie]

guess you haven't been paying attention. Plenty of people have suggested numbers when restrictions might be lifted. I mean, they weren't "Right this instant," so I can see why an anti-masker would gloss right over them...

There has not been one federal official or department that has been able to put an coordinated metric for resumption of normalcy.

I've seen numbers as low as 65% of the eligible population vaccinated, with case numbers around 5 per 100,000. So...there are your numbers. What, you worried that won't happen? Blame your anti-vax friends, then.

I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%. But at what point do you hold people responsible for their own actions. If the antivaxers don’t want to take it, let them suffer the consequences. I’ve got my doses and have been immunized. If the vaccine works let me return to normalcy. Do we ban driving because a certain percentage refuse to wear seatbelts?

We are still giving out well over 2M vaccines per day in this country, so clearly demand is still high. Weird that the "supply" of the vaccine doesn't instantly appear in people's veins after it rolls off the assembly line, huh?

In the NYC area (hardly an antivax population center) where I am, they have had to switch to walk ups because they can’t find people to fill appointments. Demand has fallen below supply, they are constantly running adverts employing people to get the shot.

But no, we must drop all restrictions right this instant, and everyone who doesn't ignore the fact we are still in the midst of a global pandemic is just power-mad with their new-found ability to make people wear cloth over their mouths.

Covid fatigue is in full force here. The more people that get the vaccine the more it increases. It has nothing to do with whatever nonsense conspiracy theories you want to fantasize about, If the vaccine works people on their own are realizing the precautions are irrelevant.

 

[SorcererMC]

I'm unaware of any outbreak that ever came with an expiration date.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

There has not been one federal official or department that has been able to put an coordinated metric for resumption of normalcy.

I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%. But at what point do you hold people responsible for their own actions. If the antivaxers don’t want to take it, let them suffer the consequences. I’ve got my doses and have been immunized. If the vaccine works let me return to normalcy. Do we ban driving because a certain percentage refuse to wear seatbelts?

In the NYC area (hardly an antivax population center) where I am, they have had to switch to walk ups because they can’t find people to fill appointments. Demand has fallen below supply, they are constantly running adverts employing people to get the shot.

Covid fatigue is in full force here. The more people that get the vaccine the more it increases. It has nothing to do with whatever nonsense conspiracy theories you want to fantasize about, If the vaccine works people on their own are realizing the precautions are irrelevant.

That's a city though. I live about 60 miles away from Boston, and getting appointments here isn't exactly easy as pie. It's getting better...but very slowly. And lets not forget about the mix-ups with availability of 2nd doses that match 1st dose - that's been an issue, too.

 

[monothingie]

That large numbers (8 million, if memory serves) skipped their second shot is very, very concerning. It won't do us any good to have 1/3 of the country fully vaccinated and another third only partially, and a third group refusing to vaccinate at all.

Poor messaging by leaders which has removed the incentive to finish up the regimen.

The botching of the J&J pause certainly did not help instill confidence in the vaccines.

 

[monothingie]

That's a city though. I live about 60 miles away from Boston, and getting appointments here isn't exactly easy as pie. It's getting better...but very slowly. And lets not forget about the mix-ups with availability of 2nd doses that match 1st dose - that's been an issue, too.

I live in northern NJ. I have 8 hospitals and 3 state mega sites that started doing walk ups only a week after the shot was opened up to everyone 16 and up. They were expecting massive demand when they expanded the age eligibility. It never materialized.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I'm unaware of any outbreak that ever came with an expiration date.

That's the killer of this whole thing. Try explaining to a 10-year-old child with autism that no one really knows when the pandemic will end. He's gotten better as time has progressed, but he still asks once in a while.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

I live in northern NJ. I have 8 hospitals and 3 state mega sites that started doing walk ups only a week after the shot was opened up to everyone 16 and up. They were expecting massive demand when they expanded the age eligibility. It never materialized.

We had a very weird thing happen with hospitals...first they were allowed to give first doses, then they weren't for a long time. It was really bizarre and I never read enough about it to fully understand what was going on. We have a hospital about 8 minutes from our house and that would have been an ideal location for us.

 

[Jrb1979]

There has not been one federal official or department that has been able to put an coordinated metric for resumption of normalcy.

I’ve seen numbers as high as 90%. But at what point do you hold people responsible for their own actions. If the antivaxers don’t want to take it, let them suffer the consequences. I’ve got my doses and have been immunized. If the vaccine works let me return to normalcy. Do we ban driving because a certain percentage refuse to wear seatbelts?

In the NYC area (hardly an antivax population center) where I am, they have had to switch to walk ups because they can’t find people to fill appointments. Demand has fallen below supply, they are constantly running adverts employing people to get the shot.

Covid fatigue is in full force here. The more people that get the vaccine the more it increases. It has nothing to do with whatever nonsense conspiracy theories you want to fantasize about, If the vaccine works people on their own are realizing the precautions are irrelevant.

You want normal back push for a vaccine passport. You start blocking from going to Disney, sporting events and concerts unless they have a proof of vaccine. Would that work for you?

 

[Jrb1979]

I live in northern NJ. I have 8 hospitals and 3 state mega sites that started doing walk ups only a week after the shot was opened up to everyone 16 and up. They were expecting massive demand when they expanded the age eligibility. It never materialized.

It was the opposite here in Ontario Canada. The opened it up to 50+ and they had a hard time filling appointments. Now that 40+ is open it's hard to get an appointment. It feels that here the younger generation is willing to get vaccinated.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

It was the opposite here in Ontario Canada. The opened it up to 50+ and they had a hard time filling appointments. Now that 40+ is open it's hard to get an appointment. It feels that here the younger generation is willing to get vaccinated.

Our daily new cases in town have been interesting...pretty evenly distributed across all age groups EXCEPT 30-40 year-olds (and infants). They've been far below all the others for a bit now.

 

[monothingie]

You want normal back push for a vaccine passport. You start blocking from going to Disney, sporting events and concerts unless they have a proof of vaccine. Would that work for you?

Except of course if implemented at a state or federal level it would be unconstitutional. (Which is why they aren’t doing it)

Nothing is to say that private companies can’t do it, but I’m not sure of the nuances of storing health data in terms of privacy issues.

I am also uncomfortable with essentially creating second class citizens who would not be afforded the same access, services, privileges, opportunities, or rights.

 

[yonafunu]

It was the opposite here in Ontario Canada. The opened it up to 50+ and they had a hard time filling appointments. Now that 40+ is open it's hard to get an appointment. It feels that here the younger generation is willing to get vaccinated.

Oh yeah ! I'm 32y old, and i want to be vaccinated quickly. Also to take into account the fact we have to wait 130days before the second shot here in Quebec...So if i have an appointment tomorrow, my second shot will be only in August. Clearly not the same strategy as US.
I hope the border will open up soon too...
Yes yes i've planned to come in Florida in early December

 

[Jrb1979]

Oh yeah ! I'm 32y old, and i want to be vaccinated quickly. Also to take into account the fact we have to wait 130days before the second shot here in Quebec...So if i have an appointment tomorrow, my second shot will be only in August. Clearly not the same strategy as US.
I hope the border will open up soon too...
Yes yes i've planned to come in Florida in early December

No it's not the same strategy but it's a positive that younger people are all for getting vaccinated.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Except of course if implemented at a state or federal level it would be unconstitutional. (Which is why they aren’t doing it)

Nothing is to say that private companies can’t do it, but I’m not sure of the nuances of storing health data in terms of privacy issues.

I am also uncomfortable with essentially creating second class citizens who would not be afforded the same access, services, privileges, opportunities, or rights.

I don't think companies would need to store any data - just card people on their way in like they do at clubs.

 

[DavidNoble]

Now get Fauci and Wallensky and Baccera and Biden to say it.

Im all for a stated end goal. I question why our leaders refuse to state one.

Probably because it doesn't fit neatly in a headline.

 

[Jrb1979]

Except of course if implemented at a state or federal level it would be unconstitutional. (Which is why they aren’t doing it)

Nothing is to say that private companies can’t do it, but I’m not sure of the nuances of storing health data in terms of privacy issues.

I am also uncomfortable with essentially creating second class citizens who would not be afforded the same access, services, privileges, opportunities, or rights.

I don't think businesses that involve everyday life will be the ones implementing it. I would most likely be places that involve large gatherings. Like theme parks, concerts, cruises and sporting events.

 

[hopemax]

We can and have been able to easily identify a level at which the virus is spreading and out of control, yet it is IMPOSSIBLE to identify a level at which is manageable and stable?

Your analogy of a tornado is a crappy one, we have no control over tornadoes, we do have control over CV19 through vaccines and therapeutics.

Yeah, because they aren't the reverse of each other. Viral growth is mathematically predictable once you know a couple of factors. The interval it takes for a person to infect another person, which can be relatively quickly and accurately observed. Combine that with the observed rate infections increase, also something that can be done relatively quickly, and becomes more accurate over time, and you can work backwards to determine the R(0) then it's a simple math equation to determine future growth, and where the tipping point. Do the rice on a chess board thing, and you will see how it easy it is too.

What we have been trying to do is use behavior (and vaccination is a behavior) to manipulate the R(t) lower and that calculation is NOT a simple mathematical equation, as evidenced by the number of people fighting over how much any of the other behavioral changes manipulated the R(t) downwards. It's trial & error, revealed by a period of observation. Vaccinations are the best chance of actually hitting the target number and more importantly sustaining it. Vaccinations are more permanent in a way our previous behavioral changes are not, we can't un-vaccinate ourselves and watch the R(t) jump back up like we observed from packing bars & restaurants. Confidence is high based on Israel's early results, but we can't skip or cut short the observational process.

ETA: It's actually similar to money, in a way. If you know your savings rate, and how much you are depositing each month, you can easily and accurately figure out how much money you'll have in retirement. But once in retirement, how do you know how long it's going to last? Sure, you can get an estimate by calculating a monthly expense. But what you can't do is predict is if that monthly cost is A. Accurate B. Doesn't fluctuate due to things you didn't expect.

 

[techgeek]

It stops when:

1) Everyone who wants a vaccine can get one (while some areas are seeing drops in appointments, other areas are still constrained and it takes about 5-6 weeks after the first dose to get fully vaccinated so we're probably looking at mid-June before that is the case)
2) Herd immunity reaches ~70%
3) Evidence that cases are dropping consistently for 2-3 weeks following reaching herd immunity to ensure that is the correct number (because no one actually knows if 70% is the magical number or if needs to be closer to 80%)
4) Further studies are done to understand how long antibodies exist
5) Further studies are done to understand transmission from those who are fully vaccinated

A lot of this is able to be done in parallel, but we're closer to the reality of returning back to normal than not.

It also stops when:

-Advisory bodies like the CDC and WHO release definitive changes to their recommendations, a process that is driven by constant review of data but is subject to delays in interpreting and coordinating messaging of that data.

-The message has a chance to filter down through the various political system layers. At the local and state levels changes may need to wait until their own reviews / meetings / processes play out.

-Major national and international business (like TWDC) drop restrictions. Even after new guidance is issued, they may have to balance different operating restrictions and considerations across their a large geographic footprint while also waiting for potential changes to clear their internal legal and risk management teams.

-International travel and trade to fully recover from the unprecedented disruption of the last year, a process that may take years in itself. There are still significant supply line challenges, now most apparent in electronics / chip supplies.

In short, even when we hit these magic numbers, there’s still a whole lot of red tape and sausage that needs to be made before ‘normal’ happens.

I currently work (from home) for a major national company that doesn’t own a theme park. I’m still getting email messages weekly informing me of employees at my (reduceoffice location testing positive. We’re still a seemingly long way from ending work-from-home, dropping corporate mask guidelines, and reinstating non-essential travel. My immediate leadership has a plan, but they can’t roll with it until the go-ahead from countless other internal groups and higher ups. I can only imagine every large company you can name is going through the same process and uncertainty, and you can be assured that they are not going to jump the gun on this.

I’m not saying that’s right, that it agrees with the science or not, or that it agrees with your preferred political position or beliefs in personal freedom... It is what it is, and it’s the reason you may well see places like WDW and other large companies require mitigation well beyond when you may think they should.

 

[Tony Perkis]

Well unfortunately this little problem of the sovereignty of states comes into play. So while I appreciate your poor attempt at snark rather than actually discussing the issue, there is no way to avoid the fact that our system of government requires us to divide whatever regs/guidelines via each of the 50 states.

It’s not snark. The virus doesn’t give a damn which side of a state’s border you’re on. States reopening at different times has unquestionably led to delayed lifting of restrictions nationwide, and states with a more lax plan has harmed other states. Measuring each state’s restrictions ignores completely the nationwide impact it has.