Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[sullyinMT]

IMHO calling him a long hauler in any sense of the word is in bad taste. His father is still in the hospital

My sincere apologies. I wasn’t aware, and I’ll rightly take my lumps and edit.

 

[Smooth]

There was one new case reported in our southern Ohio county today.

 

[lazyboy97o]

You specifically, and everyone else following this path will enable a transmission path to exist, slow the reductions in cases, prolong how long mitigation’s are required in public. Which I suppose doesn’t bother you at all, since you’re probably already ignoring them.

Your actions and decisions have a direct negative impact on my family’s long term health chances. Your decisions will create additional economic harm for the entire country. Why do you hate us?

“Because I don’t actually understand how vaccines work and I don’t want to!”

 

[MisterPenguin]

Serious question: what if spread never gets low?

That arises from one of two cases:

1. There are a large number of people who refuse to get vaccinated. It should be no surprise that this group will also not willingly follow any risk management protocols (masks are Satanic!!!). Indeed, they're already maskless and the cause of the most recent waves. So, eventually, the virus will burn through this group, hospitalizing and killing a significant portion, though, they wouldn't see it as such. If the immune-compromised don't isolate from them during this burn through, their death rate will be tragically high. This group will eventually develop 'natural immunity' (the ones who survive) which will add to the number of vaccinated to bring down cases to the point that they really are like the flu. Unless #2 happens...

2. There is an escape variant (a mutation that the current vaccine doesn't work against). Ironically, scenario #1 increases the likelihood of an escape variant because they're keeping the virus 'alive' and mutating. This means numbers will shoot up again and we'll need strict protocols until there's a booster designed to 'kill' this variant. But too many people are just exhausted from this (and a good chunk are just weak snowflakes) and they're not going to follow extended restrictions and so they'll be new huge spikes for half a year until the new vaccine comes out.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I'm not suggesting that spread won't get low. As I've said repeatedly, I still believe we are about a month away from seeing cases starting to plummet nationwide. I think by summer, these discussions will all be moot as the virus will be well under control.

I was merely posing a "what if" scenario. My point is that there comes a time when life has to resume normalcy regardless of what is going on with the virus. Mitigation measures, lockdowns, even vaccine passports can't extend indefinitely. So what do we do if the spread does not get under control?

Solve the problem first...don’t weep for “normalcy”

the doctors have pleaded a simple concept: don’t be dumb this late

 

[mmascari]

Serious question: what if spread never gets low?

We’re screwed. And, we really messed up.

I was merely posing a "what if" scenario. My point is that there comes a time when life has to resume normalcy regardless of what is going on with the virus. Mitigation measures, lockdowns, even vaccine passports can't extend indefinitely. So what do we do if the spread does not get under control?

Short term, passports and trying to have two worlds overlap but not touch each other. One that’s fully 100% vaccinated, perhaps with some negative tests mixed in. The other, either rampant spread or continued mitigations, probably both. This will be ugly, disruptive, and a huge pain.

Longer term, either the short term solution becomes the new normal, or the definition of “low” increases until it meets the new conditions. This will also be ugly.

Remember, for some, they’re just fine with today’s virus impacts being normal. General consensus is that it needs to be lower. How low is a good question. I think this thread would put normal at about the same impact as the flu or auto accidents generally. Some would like measles level and a few fine with higher too.

 

[mmascari]

On your question, I firmly believe public sentiment will be weighted towards enough vaccinated. How many cases is low enough to consider community spread not an issue? Is it cases only or do we consider cases and percent positive and hospitalizations and deaths? Nobody in the government today is going to commit to a firm number and say we need to be at X cases per 100K a day to remove restrictions. It’s going to be a mix.

Agree, it’s not one number, but an overall impact. I just don’t think the vaccinated percent is one of those numbers, at least not directly, just it’s ability to move the other numbers.

Vaccinations alone won’t be the only factor. If we get to 70% vaccinated and cases and deaths are the same as today then we obviously won’t be able to remove restrictions. If cases start dropping now, but we still haven’t finished vaccinating most of the people who will want a shot we should also not remove restrictions. We should wait until we get to the point where mostly any people who want a vaccine are done (likely June at the current pace) and then look at the impact of vaccinations on statistics. There’s no light switch or firm number, we see if stats are improving and then dial back restrictions slowly, if the dial back doesn’t cause a spike we continue dialing back, if it does we pause. At some point in theory with enough people vaccinated we can remove all restrictions and cases won’t rise. The dial back on restrictions can and will also start prior to reaching optimal vaccination status so we may still need masks and distancing and limited public gatherings but we are already seeing the CDC and others altering recommendations for fully vaccinated people and they can and will continue that.

I also agree, this is how it’s likely to dial down and up as the metrics change. My disagreement is that the vaccinated percent is one of the metrics, or that we need to wait on it. If we could get the spread low without the vaccine, that would be fine too. Obviously harder, and probably not possible here at this point.

 

[GoofGoof]

Agree, it’s not one number, but an overall impact. I just don’t think the vaccinated percent is one of those numbers, at least not directly, just it’s ability to move the other numbers.


I also agree, this is how it’s likely to dial down and up as the metrics change. My disagreement is that the vaccinated percent is one of the metrics, or that we need to wait on it. If we could get the spread low without the vaccine, that would be fine too. Obviously harder, and probably not possible here at this point.

We can agree to disagree on that. If cases dropped off tomorrow I would not support removing all restrictions until we get to the point that anyone who wants a vaccine has one. Percent vaccinated should factor into the equation. I am not opposed to starting to remove certain mitigations prior to reaching a high enough vaccine level but not all mitigations. We don’t have long to go either. A few months at most.

 

[GoofGoof]

That arises from one of two cases:

1. There are a large number of people who refuse to get vaccinated. It should be no surprise that this group will also not willingly follow any risk management protocols (masks are Satanic!!!). Indeed, they're already maskless and the cause of the most recent waves. So, eventually, the virus will burn through this group, hospitalizing and killing a significant portion, though, they wouldn't see it as such. If the immune-compromised don't isolate from them during this burn through, their death rate will be tragically high. This group will eventually develop 'natural immunity' (the ones who survive) which will add to the number of vaccinated to bring down cases to the point that they really are like the flu. Unless #2 happens...

2. There is an escape variant (a mutation that the current vaccine doesn't work against). Ironically, scenario #1 increases the likelihood of an escape variant because they're keeping the virus 'alive' and mutating. This means numbers will shoot up again and we'll need strict protocols until there's a booster designed to 'kill' this variant. But too many people are just exhausted from this (and a good chunk are just weak snowflakes) and they're not going to follow extended restrictions and so they'll be new huge spikes for half a year until the new vaccine comes out.

I agree with this. Those were my 2 what-if scenarios.

Vaccine hesitancy is real. We will not get to 100% vaccinated or even 90%. 75% is a realistic goal but it will likely end up being lower, maybe 60-70%. Off the bat 15% of the population is under 12. That means if everyone who is eligible (once kids 12-15 are approved) got the vaccine we would only be at 85% vaccinated. If we get 80% of eligible to take the vaccine we get to about 68% of the total population. 70% of eligible gets us to 60% of the population. IMHO thats the min we need to target. Recent polling makes 70% look like a realistic and achievable number. Will 60% of the population vaccinated get us to herd immunity? Looking at Israel they are at 59% with at least 1 shot and they may have reached herd immunity. It’s possible that ballpark gets us there. The good news is we are at 40% of the population started so we would need another 20% or 66M more people. Based on current pace of first shots we can and should hit 60% of the population with 1 shot in 4-6 weeks. That puts us Mid to late May or to be conservative Memorial Day weekend. We will have enough doses to do it and we‘ve shown we can inject enough doses to get there, the only hold back is getting enough people in.

If there is an escape variant that becomes dominant in the US it delays our return to normal for sure. We would need a new booster to stop the variant and that would take a few months to develop and test before kicking off manufacturing and distribution. In theory once the booster was developed and manufacturing kicked off we could roll it out to the whole population in a matter of 3 months. Start to finish probably a 5-6 month process. So if this theoretical variant became dominant by July it could mean a delay of a return to normal until Christmas. Again, this is a “what if” and a worst case scenario that is in no way a guarantee to happen.

 

[seascape]

I agree with this. Those were my 2 what-if scenarios.

Vaccine hesitancy is real. We will not get to 100% vaccinated or even 90%. 75% is a realistic goal but it will likely end up being lower, maybe 60-70%. Off the bat 15% of the population is under 12. That means if everyone who is eligible (once kids 12-15 are approved) got the vaccine we would only be at 85% vaccinated. If we get 80% of eligible to take the vaccine we get to about 68% of the total population. 70% of eligible gets us to 60% of the population. IMHO thats the min we need to target. Recent polling makes 70% look like a realistic and achievable number. Will 60% of the population vaccinated get us to herd immunity? Looking at Israel they are at 59% with at least 1 shot and they may have reached herd immunity. It’s possible that ballpark gets us there. The good news is we are at 40% of the population started so we would need another 20% or 66M more people. Based on current pace of first shots we can and should hit 60% of the population with 1 shot in 4-6 weeks. That puts us Mid to late May or to be conservative Memorial Day weekend. We will have enough doses to do it and we‘ve shown we can inject enough doses to get there, the only hold back is getting enough people in.

If there is an escape variant that becomes dominant in the US it delays our return to normal for sure. We would need a new booster to stop the variant and that would take a few months to develop and test before kicking off manufacturing and distribution. In theory once the booster was developed and manufacturing kicked off we could roll it out to the whole population in a matter of 3 months. Start to finish probably a 5-6 month process. So if this theoretical variant became dominant by July it could mean a delay of a return to normal until Christmas. Again, this is a “what if” and a worst case scenario that is in no way a guarantee to happen.

I agree with most of your analysis. My biggest fear and has been for the past 5 quarters is that by lowering the curve we gave Covid19 more time to mutate and if it does and we get a vaccine resistant version what happens? We all need to accept our personal responsibility to each other. Many people have lost a large portion of their assets and suffered to save others. We now can see the end provided we continue to care for each other and accept no vaccine is full proof but that we will lose more people if we refuse to take the vaccine than the 1 in a million by taking it. The cost benefit analysis must be taken into account or we will lose more lives. Please do the right thing, my wife and I have and have encouraged others too.

 

[Hollywood704]

I would bother to ask what stupidity you watch on tv/read online?...

...but I don’t like rhetorical questions much

I'm a physicians assistant in emergency medicine. Spent some time in family practice before this.

 

[celluloid]

I agree with most of your analysis. My biggest fear and has been for the past 5 quarters is that by lowering the curve we gave Covid19 more time to mutate and if it does and we get a vaccine resistant version what happens? We all need to accept our personal responsibility to each other. Many people have lost a large portion of their assets and suffered to save others. We now can see the end provided we continue to care for each other and accept no vaccine is full proof but that we will lose more people if we refuse to take the vaccine than the 1 in a million by taking it. The cost benefit analysis must be taken into account or we will lose more lives. Please do the right thing, my wife and I have and have encouraged others too.

I am not saying it could not happen. But don't let the phrase and possibilities of "mutate" scare you too much. When diseases mutate the current vaccines are also commonly very effective. Treatments will also develop to better understand what harms the disease can cause.
Even if the vaccines became as half effective for a few years as new ones come out annually, we will have some more effective than others. With the current ones being in the 90 percent effectiveness...that is incredible.
For comparison sake of vaccine science, not diseases. The Flu Vaccines are typically amazing if they are 40 to 60 percent effective.

Just some optimism to think about.

 

[Hollywood704]

You specifically, and everyone else following this path will enable a transmission path to exist, slow the reductions in cases, prolong how long mitigation’s are required in public. Which I suppose doesn’t bother you at all, since you’re probably already ignoring them.

Your actions and decisions have a direct negative impact on my family’s long term health chances. Your decisions will create additional economic harm for the entire country. Why do you hate us?

You may want to crack a book on virology to understand how viruses work, specifically the SARS virus (Sars Cov 2). I definitely don't hate anybody for decisions they make. I hope you share that same mentality with other vaccinations like the flu for instance or say MMR.

A lack of vitamin D in your body actually is the culprit for many viruses. This is common knowledge in medicine. If your body lacks the natural minerals to fight a virus introducing something into your body to fight a virus won't be as effective. There is a reason states that are open now where people are outside, exercising and being in the sun are having substantially better results than states who are closed and restricting activities outdoors. It's really simple, when you're in the sun outside at disney you feel euphoric almost, yes the atmosphere and rides help, but just being out in the warm weather, sun and fresh air have a lot to do with this.

I feel bad for people who fear monger people into feeling bad for personal health decisions. I'll never bash someone for choosing to put something into their body that has yet to be approved by the FDA and is only being used by emergency order. I would go out on a limb here and say you belive that those who have tested positive for covid are basically signing a death certificate or have a high rate of being admitted to a hospital. Hospitalization for those who have tested positive for covid are less than 15% of all cases. The morbidity rate isn't high at all.

Talking morbidity rate those who have hypertension and or obesity are the highest at risk population. So control your food intake, get out in the sun and lose some weight then your solid.

 

[MisterPenguin]

A lack of vitamin D in your body actually is the culprit for many viruses. This is common knowledge in medicine. If your body lacks the natural minerals to fight a virus introducing something into your body to fight a virus won't be as effective. There is a reason states that are open now where people are outside, exercising and being in the sun are having substantially better results than states who are closed and restricting activities outdoors. It's really simple, when you're in the sun outside at disney you feel euphoric almost, yes the atmosphere and rides help, but just being out in the warm weather, sun and fresh air have a lot to do with this.

None of this is true.

 

[Hollywood704]

None of this is true.

Prove it to me.

 

[GoofGoof]

None of this is true.

It would be nice though if it was. Just go outside and spend some time in the sun and you are immune to Covid Didn’t seem to work too well for the Spring Break crowds

 

[MisterPenguin]

Prove it to me.

That would be impossible. Your understanding of basic health is pretty much non-existent.

I said what I said in case anyone reading what you posted thought it might be true based on how declarative it was. Didn't want to create more anti-vaxxers.

 

[Hollywood704]

It would be nice though if it was. Just go outside and spend some time in the sun and you are immune to Covid Didn’t seem to work too well for the Spring Break crowds

I never said you're immune to it. But a body which has a vitamin d deficiency is inadequate to fight any virus. Having high vitamin D in your life makes you a much healthier person. I never said it's all you need. Please show me how many of those at the beach made it a super spreader event and how many deaths came from such? This is kind of my wheel house here.

 

[Hollywood704]

That would be impossible. Your understanding of basic health is pretty much non-existent.

I said what I said in case anyone reading what you posted thought it might be true based on how declarative it was. Didn't want to create more anti-vaxxers.

I'm a PA, my wheel house here.

Also I'm not an anti vaxxer, I have many vaccinations. Probably more than the average joe due to my world travel requirements in Asia and Africa.

I'm only clarifying that a vaccine alone will not keep you from getting the virus. It takes better health decisions longterm to fight a virus. High vitamin D is one of the biggest factors in a body's fight against any illness, not just covid.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I agree with this. Those were my 2 what-if scenarios.

Vaccine hesitancy is real. We will not get to 100% vaccinated or even 90%. 75% is a realistic goal but it will likely end up being lower, maybe 60-70%. Off the bat 15% of the population is under 12. That means if everyone who is eligible (once kids 12-15 are approved) got the vaccine we would only be at 85% vaccinated. If we get 80% of eligible to take the vaccine we get to about 68% of the total population. 70% of eligible gets us to 60% of the population. IMHO thats the min we need to target. Recent polling makes 70% look like a realistic and achievable number. Will 60% of the population vaccinated get us to herd immunity? Looking at Israel they are at 59% with at least 1 shot and they may have reached herd immunity. It’s possible that ballpark gets us there. The good news is we are at 40% of the population started so we would need another 20% or 66M more people. Based on current pace of first shots we can and should hit 60% of the population with 1 shot in 4-6 weeks. That puts us Mid to late May or to be conservative Memorial Day weekend. We will have enough doses to do it and we‘ve shown we can inject enough doses to get there, the only hold back is getting enough people in.

If there is an escape variant that becomes dominant in the US it delays our return to normal for sure. We would need a new booster to stop the variant and that would take a few months to develop and test before kicking off manufacturing and distribution. In theory once the booster was developed and manufacturing kicked off we could roll it out to the whole population in a matter of 3 months. Start to finish probably a 5-6 month process. So if this theoretical variant became dominant by July it could mean a delay of a return to normal until Christmas. Again, this is a “what if” and a worst case scenario that is in no way a guarantee to happen.

I don't want an escape variant will really happen to become dominant by July I'm scared about this....is escape variant is really gonna happen by July? @GoofGoof