Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[LittleBuford]

Variants are a what if

Variants aren't a "what if". They're a current reality and have already led to greater spread.

 

[Tom P.]

The better question is why would we assume spread won’t get low. If vaccines are highly effective (which they are) and we get enough people vaccinated (on a great pace for that right now) then why wouldn’t cases and community spread drop to a low level? The common answers I have seen are new variants and vaccine hesitancy. Variants are a what if and hesitancy is the only way the vaccine rollout fails. If that happens we switch to plan B which is vaccine passports for large public gatherings and things like domestic travel. That will end vaccine hesitancy.

I'm not suggesting that spread won't get low. As I've said repeatedly, I still believe we are about a month away from seeing cases starting to plummet nationwide. I think by summer, these discussions will all be moot as the virus will be well under control.

I was merely posing a "what if" scenario. My point is that there comes a time when life has to resume normalcy regardless of what is going on with the virus. Mitigation measures, lockdowns, even vaccine passports can't extend indefinitely. So what do we do if the spread does not get under control?

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 35 new reported deaths.

 

[hopemax]

Variants aren't a "what if". They're a current reality that have already led to greater spread.

The new one is B.1.617, BTW. It's what's driving India's devastating numbers. Already, found in the UK and CA, but other than the speed at which it has grown to prevalence, we don't know much.

 

[BuddyThomas]

I would bother to ask what stupidity you watch on tv/read online?...

...but I don’t like rhetorical questions much

Well, after all, it is a Disney forum, so it is sad, but unsurprising, to see so many people living in Fantasyland.

 

[LittleBuford]

The new one is B.1.617, BTW. It's what's driving India's devastating numbers. Already, found in the UK and CA, but other than the speed at which it has grown to prevalence, we don't know much.

The reality of such variants plus the reality of vaccine hesitancy is why all of us, vaccinated or otherwise, need to remain cautious for the time being.

 

[GoofGoof]

Variants aren't a "what if". They're a current reality and have already led to greater spread.

Variants causing the vaccines to fail and spread to continue is a what if. They exist but there is no guarantee that they defeat the vaccines. See Israel. 90%+ of infections were from the more contagious U.K. variant yet the vaccines still worked.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Variants causing the vaccines to fail and spread to continue is a what if. They exist but there is no guarantee that they defeat the vaccines. See Israel. 90%+ of infections were from the more contagious U.K. variant yet the vaccines still worked.

That doesn't mean we should behave as if there's a guarantee that they WON'T mutate to render the vaccines ineffective.

 

[GoofGoof]

The reality of such variants plus the reality of vaccine hesitancy is why all of us, vaccinated or otherwise, need to remain cautious for the time being.

I would say we need to continue mitigation efforts today because we haven‘t vaccinated enough people and as a result cases and community spread hasn’t come down enough yet. Vaccine hesitancy hasn’t had an impact so far. It could.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[LittleBuford]

Variants causing the vaccines to fail and spread to continue is a what if. They exist but there is no guarantee that they defeat the vaccines. See Israel. 90%+ of infections were from the more contagious U.K. variant yet the vaccines still worked.

Your post was talking about spread, which is the specific point I was responding to. Variants are causing more spread, rendering it even more important that people get vaccinated.

 

[GoofGoof]

That doesn't mean we should behave as if there's a guarantee that they WON'T mutate to render the vaccines ineffective.

I don’t follow. Mitigation is still needed today whether a variant emerges in the future or not.

 

[GoofGoof]

Your post was talking about spread, which is the specific point I was responding to. Variants are causing more spread, rendering it even more important that people get vaccinated.

My post was talking about why the vaccines would fail to lower cases. A vaccine resistant variant is a “what if“ not a guarantee.

 

[Figgy1]

Numbers are out - there were 35 new reported deaths.

View attachment 550079View attachment 550076View attachment 550077View attachment 550078

Not good, not good at all

 

[sullyinMT]

Variants aren't a "what if". They're a current reality and have already led to greater spread.

To be fair, the impact of the variants (which those of us who’ve been around here a while know is what GoofGoof meant), are an unknown each time one pops up. If/when one becomes worrisome to the vaccine efficacy, we adjust. But we don’t lower community spread and THEN continue mitigation “just in case.”

Israel and the U.K. are vigilantly reopening. There’s no reason for any nation who finds themselves in a similar viral situation in the coming months to not do the same.

 

[GoofGoof]

To be fair, the impact of the variants (which those of us who’ve been around here a while know is what GoofGoof meant), are an unknown each time one pops up. If/when one becomes worrisome to the vaccine efficacy, we adjust. But we don’t lower community spread and THEN continue mitigation “just in case.”

Israel and the U.K. are vigilantly reopening. There’s no reason for any nation who finds themselves in a similar viral situation in the coming months to not do the same.

Yes, exactly

 

[LittleBuford]

To be fair, the impact of the variants (which those of us who’ve been around here a while know is what GoofGoof meant), are an unknown each time one pops up. If/when becomes worrisome to the vaccine efficacy, we adjust. But we don’t lower community spread and THEN continue mitigation “just in case.”

Israel and the U.K. are vigilantly reopening. There’s no reason for any nation who doesn’t find themselves in a similar viral situation in the coming months to do the same.

I've been in this thread for over a year! Contrary to the "play it by ear" approach, experts are stressing the importance of preempting the rise of new, more dangerous, variants. That seems to be getting lost here in recent weeks.

 

[GoofGoof]

I've been in this thread for over a year! Contrary to the "play it by ear" approach, experts are stressing the importance of preempting the rise of new, more dangerous, variants. That seems to be getting lost here in recent weeks.

I agree that we need to keep mitigation efforts going right now for sure. I think it’s way too early to be removing all restrictions anywhere in the US. Once we have enough people vaccinated that cases and community spread drop then we need to decide when to relax mitigation efforts. We can’t keep mitigation indefinitely until cases get to zero to preempt the rise of new variants. The timing needs to be when we reach a level of spread far less than where we are today and far greater than zero. What is that number? Above my pay grade to decide

 

[Figgy1]

I know, you’re a “long hauler .” So are most people that argued their post, which I’m shocked by. There are a few who want Feb 2020 level life back without any further action, but that’s not what the post was about. It’s about defining the exit strategy instead of stumbling around aimlessly.

Let’s play the opposite side of the variant coin. What happens should one emerge that bypasses vaccines, proves incredibly contagious, but isn’t deadly or even that serious from a hospitalization standpoint? If the US is seeing 150k cases a day, but two months after that starts only 50/day are dying, is the variant a threat? I’d contend that variant is our friend, as it’s protecting us from deaths and overcrowded hospitals.

IMHO calling him a long hauler in any sense of the word is in bad taste. His father is still in the hospital

 

[sullyinMT]

IMHO calling him a long hauler in any sense of the word is in bad taste. His father is still in the hospital

My sincere apologies. I wasn’t aware, and I’ll rightly take my lumps and edit.