Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Good. I thought the escape variant is gonna be reality.

Nobody knows for sure, but all we can do is continue to follow Covid safety protocols and get the vaccine as soon as it’s available (Which I know you already did). Outside of that we can’t do much else to prevent mutations or nature running its course. There is always a chance that a new variant that resists the vaccines spreads rapidly in the US but so far it hasn’t happened and if we get enough people vaccinated soon it never will.

 

[UNCgolf]

I agree with this. Those were my 2 what-if scenarios.

Vaccine hesitancy is real. We will not get to 100% vaccinated or even 90%. 75% is a realistic goal but it will likely end up being lower, maybe 60-70%. Off the bat 15% of the population is under 12. That means if everyone who is eligible (once kids 12-15 are approved) got the vaccine we would only be at 85% vaccinated. If we get 80% of eligible to take the vaccine we get to about 68% of the total population. 70% of eligible gets us to 60% of the population. IMHO thats the min we need to target. Recent polling makes 70% look like a realistic and achievable number. Will 60% of the population vaccinated get us to herd immunity? Looking at Israel they are at 59% with at least 1 shot and they may have reached herd immunity. It’s possible that ballpark gets us there. The good news is we are at 40% of the population started so we would need another 20% or 66M more people. Based on current pace of first shots we can and should hit 60% of the population with 1 shot in 4-6 weeks. That puts us Mid to late May or to be conservative Memorial Day weekend. We will have enough doses to do it and we‘ve shown we can inject enough doses to get there, the only hold back is getting enough people in.

If there is an escape variant that becomes dominant in the US it delays our return to normal for sure. We would need a new booster to stop the variant and that would take a few months to develop and test before kicking off manufacturing and distribution. In theory once the booster was developed and manufacturing kicked off we could roll it out to the whole population in a matter of 3 months. Start to finish probably a 5-6 month process. So if this theoretical variant became dominant by July it could mean a delay of a return to normal until Christmas. Again, this is a “what if” and a worst case scenario that is in no way a guarantee to happen.

I'm concerned we won't ever get enough shots in. There are huge numbers of people spread across the country who now have access to shots but simply aren't interested in getting them. I was reading an article earlier about places in Ohio and several other states that have dozens of empty vaccine appointments every day even though they're not even close to vaccinating the majority of the population yet.

If that's the case, variants are going to continue to develop and spread and we could end up nearly back where we started.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I'm concerned we won't ever get enough shots in. There are huge numbers of people spread across the country who now have access to shots but simply aren't interested in getting them. I was reading an article earlier about places in Ohio and several other states that have dozens of empty vaccine appointments every day even though they're not even close to vaccinating the majority of the population yet.

If that's the case, variants are going to continue to develop and spread and we could end up nearly back where we started.

Biden needs to mandate vaccines to the people who don't wanted to get vaccinating.

 

[UNCgolf]

Biden needs to mandate vaccines to the people who don't wanted to get vaccinating.

I think it would be very difficult for the federal government to issue such a mandate and not have it struck down by the Supreme Court. Individual states would have a better chance of doing so successfully due to existing precedent, but not enough of them would be willing to do so to make a difference.

The federal government could do something like levy a special tax on anyone who doesn't get the vaccine -- that way a person wouldn't actually be forced to do so, but would suffer consequences for their choice -- but I don't think that's very likely to happen.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I think it would be very difficult for the federal government to issue such a mandate and not have it struck down by the Supreme Court. Individual states would have a better chance of doing so successfully due to existing precedent, but not enough of them would be willing to do so to make a difference.

The federal government could do something like levy a special tax on anyone who doesn't get the vaccine -- that way a person wouldn't actually be forced to do so, but would suffer consequences for their choice -- but I don't think that's very likely to happen.

So that means we will never get back to normal if the people don't takes vaccine?

 

[ImperfectPixie]

So that means we will never get back to normal if the people don't takes vaccine?

It means we need to be vigilant and debunk all the conspiracy theories and encourage (but not bully) those who are hesitant about the vaccines.

EDIT: And continue to follow safety protocols in the meantime.

 

[UNCgolf]

So that means we will never get back to normal if the people don't takes vaccine?

Not necessarily. Getting to herd immunity via vaccines is by far the most likely path to return to normalcy, but even if a bunch of people don't take it that doesn't preclude normalcy.

Viruses often mutate into variants that are actually less harmful than earlier versions, as one example of something that could happen even if we don't reach herd immunity via vaccines. There are others.

 

[Kevin_W]

Just for fun, this would be my ranking using the same 15. For context, I'm local and an AP.

15. No housekeeping
14. Not all resorts are open
13. Some dining locations ONLY support mobile ordering
12. Temperature screening
11. Cast member masks and face shields
10. Queues spilling out onto every walking path
9. No parades or fireworks
8. Plexiglass at registers
7. Can't park hop until 2:00
6. Limited dining options
5. Wearing masks (dry weather)
4. Wearing masks (torrential downpours)
3. Can't walk around and snack
2. Plexiglass on rides
1. Park Pass reservation system

It's interesting to see other people's list. For me #1 by far would be parades/fireworks. Lack of entertainment/streetmosphere would be a close 2nd. I'd probably put my line there and the other's on your list would be in some order below.

 

[GoofGoof]

I'm concerned we won't ever get enough shots in. There are huge numbers of people spread across the country who now have access to shots but simply aren't interested in getting them. I was reading an article earlier about places in Ohio and several other states that have dozens of empty vaccine appointments every day even though they're not even close to vaccinating the majority of the population yet.

If that's the case, variants are going to continue to develop and spread and we could end up nearly back where we started.

Vaccine hesitancy can be an issue, too soon to know for sure if it will be. First we don’t know how many people we need vaccinated and second we also don’t know how many people will ultimately go in and get it. There’s still plenty of overall demand for the vaccines so if it continues that areas have supply and no demand then we need to allocate doses elsewhere. Get the doses to the people who want them. At the same time it’s up to state and local governments to do a better job encouraging people to be vaccinated. In a lot of cases the same Governors who downplayed Covid are also doing a poor job in encouraging vaccinations. That will hurt their states in the long run. The focus needs to shift to making vaccinations even easier and more convenient. Make it so easy that it’s impossible for people to say they didn’t get it because it was too much of a hassle.

On the issue of how many people need to go, we can look at Israel as a benchmark. They are 4-6 weeks ahead of us on vaccines and have 59% of their population with at least 1 dose. They may have already reached herd immunity and their cases are well below the level we would need to hit to consider removing most or all restrictions. It’s not a perfect parallel to the US, but it gives us a ballpark idea and more importantly shows that you don’t need 80-90% of the population vaccinated to see really good results. If we do continue vaccinations at the current pace we should be where Israel is today with about 60% of the total population vaccinated in 4-6 weeks. I can’t say it’s a lock that we will see cases drop to their levels, but that’s the hope. Once 12+ are approved (any day now) we will need 70% of eligible people to go in for a vaccine to reach 60% of the total population vaccinated.

If it turns out that we don’t hit 70% of eligible people vaccinated or we do but the percent vaccinated needs to be higher to achieve the desired reduction in spread then we move on to plan B. We keep certain mitigations in place and for a lot of situations that require large public gatherings we switch to the vaccine passport plan. I don’t think we will see vaccine passports for everyday life but for things like sporting events, cruises, theme parks, concerts, night clubs and other large group gatherings it may become a reality. Again, that’s plan B and only if the vaccine rollout fails.

 

[UNCgolf]

It's interesting to see other people's list. For me #1 by far would be parades/fireworks. Lack of entertainment/streetmosphere would be a close 2nd. I'd probably put my line there and the other's on your list would be in some order below.

My top two would be park pass reservation system and inability to park hop until after 2 PM. The next two would probably be queues spilling into walkways and limited dining options.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

My top two would be park pass reservation system and inability to park hop until after 2 PM. The next two would probably be queues spilling into walkways and limited dining options.

That's where I think I'm at, too.

 

[UNCgolf]

That's where I think I'm at, too.

The limited resorts would be high on the list as well, mainly because I think Port Orleans offers the best overall value and it's not open. I couldn't care less about something like the All-Stars being closed because I would never stay there anyways.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

The limited resorts would be high on the list as well, mainly because I think Port Orleans offers the best overall value and it's not open. I couldn't care less about something like the All-Stars being closed because I would never stay there anyways.

Not all the resorts being open bothers me just because of the dining options being closed.

 

[GoofGoof]

My top two would be park pass reservation system and inability to park hop until after 2 PM. The next two would probably be queues spilling into walkways and limited dining options.

It sounds like they may keep the park reservation system post Covid for staffing planning purposes but it won’t matter on any but the most crowded days so at most a couple weeks out of the year and even then probably only DHS and maybe MK. I don’t know what that means for park hopping.

Lack of dining options would be high on my list along with lack of fireworks or night shows.

 

[jpeden]

The limited resorts would be high on the list as well, mainly because I think Port Orleans offers the best overall value and it's not open. I couldn't care less about something like the All-Stars being closed because I would never stay there anyways.

My wife actually woke me up in the middle of the night last week because she dreamed that I changed our October Grand Floridian Villas reservation to All Stars and didn’t tell her until we got there. She was SO MAD, and it was just a dream.

 

[UNCgolf]

It sounds like they may keep the park reservation system post Covid for staffing planning purposes but it won’t matter on any but the most crowded days so at most a couple weeks out of the year and even then probably only DHS and maybe MK. I don’t know what that means for park hopping.

Lack of dining options would be high on my list along with lack of fireworks or night shows.

Yeah, it sounds like they're keeping the park reservation system, which probably means they're also keeping the park hopping after 2 PM. That will put a huge damper on any potential future WDW trips for me.

 

[UNCgolf]

Not all the resorts being open bothers me just because of the dining options being closed.

That would bother me if AKL was closed because I love going to Boma for the breakfast buffet. I don't think any of the resorts that are currently closed offer any dining I ever consider, except maybe the Polynesian. I think some of the Boardwalk restaurants are closed too, but I'm not sure if that's because of the Boardwalk Inn being closed or if they would be closed regardless.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

Yeah, it sounds like they're keeping the park reservation system, which probably means they're also keeping the park hopping after 2 PM. That will put a huge damper on any potential future WDW trips for me.

I think they'll lose a lot of people if they keep the 2pm hopping. People will only allow themselves to be herded to a certain degree and that's too much, IMO.

 

[GoofGoof]

Yeah, it sounds like they're keeping the park reservation system, which probably means they're also keeping the park hopping after 2 PM. That will put a huge damper on any potential future WDW trips for me.

If they extend back to normal hours I would think it would be less of an issue. I would think most people spend at least 4 hours in a park before hopping so 9-1 then grab lunch and be at park 2 at 2PM and if that park is open until 9 or later plenty of time to do stuff and grab dinner. I guess if you wanted to just do 1 ride then go to another park it could be an issue.

For me personally if we go in the Summer we always do a mid day break at the hotel anyway so we wouldn’t be going to park #2 until after 2pm anyway.

 

[ImperfectPixie]

If they extend back to normal hours I would think it would be less of an issue. I would think most people spend at least 4 hours in a park before hopping so 9-1 then grab lunch and be at park 2 at 2PM and if that park is open until 9 or later plenty of time to do stuff and grab dinner. I guess if you wanted to just do 1 ride then go to another park it could be an issue.

For me personally if we go in the Summer we always do a mid day break at the hotel anyway so we wouldn’t be going to park #2 until after 2pm anyway.

See, I know people who have APs, who REFUSE to make plans ahead of time and wing it every time they go to the parks. They aren't willing to deal with the park passes or limiting park hopping until 2pm.