Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GhostHost1000]

Define normal? Is 75,000 cases 800 deaths daily normal, nationally? Do you have a smaller or larger number in mind?

I'm honestly asking. What's your number for normal?

Not some "at some point we have to", but a real metric. In your opinion, if you're making the call. Is 75,000 cases 800 deaths daily the new normal? Is the new normal higher or lower than that?

I'm not wondering what any of the science people are saying. They'll provide all the advice in the world about what actions will cause the numbers to go up or down. It's a policy decision then about weighing those actions and the change on the numbers against the other "not COVID" things those actions will impact. If we want to talk about when we should stop different actions, assuming we're not fighting about if the actions actually work, we should at least decide if the goal even matters.

So, what's "normal"? What's the level of daily cases and daily deaths nationally when we're all just fine with the number?


(It's not 0. Not even close to 0, well above that. But, it's not what those values were today either.)

I’m not the one to ask that question to. Dr fauci and the CDC is and my concern is they can’t give us an answer so what does that mean and how long do they continue restrictions

I’ve said from the beginning of all this there has to be a line and something has to give somewhere at some point because the virus will likely always be out there and there will always be some risk involved so when will we leave the decisions up to the individuals to decide on when to do what rather than the government to tell us

 

[GhostHost1000]

There have been multiple studies that show there is little to very low risk of a fully vaccinated individual spreading COVID. The reason vaccinated people are still masking is because it is impossible to know who has and has not be vaccinated.

Which doesn’t in my opinion give much incentive for those on the fence to get the shot. I know it would be almost impossible to control and know who is unmasked that is unvaccinated or not but at what point does that give? Covid will always be around most likely and at some point we have to have the freedom to make our own decisions on what is best or safe for us and our families ourselves and accept whatever risks there may be just like we do every day when we get behind a wheel where over 4mil people get injured in automobile accidents each year.

not comparing covid to a car crash just noting risks we choose to accept to enjoy life

 

[GhostHost1000]

Nah, I’ve accepted months. Months isn’t what I’m worried about. What I’m worried about is vaccines full available and restrictions still being pushed because there’s a “chance.”

That is exactly my fear based on them not being able to answer the question on when things might change. There HAS to be some type of return to normalcy incentive to getting these shots if they want more to take them otherwise we are going to hit the end of the demand soon and be sitting with a lot of population who won’t get one hearing about side effect risks and still needing to mask up and social distance regardless

 

[Touchdown]

That is exactly my fear based on them not being able to answer the question on when things might change. There HAS to be some type of return to normalcy incentive to getting these shots if they want more to take them otherwise we are going to hit the end of the demand soon and be sitting with a lot of population who won’t get one hearing about side effect risks and still needing to mask up and social distance regardless

They can’t say when because it depends on things that aren’t necessarily time dependant. We get back to normal when new cases in this country fall to very low levels (under 10k cases at least.). The quickest way to do that is to vaccinate a (large) majority of Americans. Setting a specific time would disincentivize vaccination efforts, however the President has already thrown a date out there if you pay attention.

The 4th of July, provided we continue vaccinations at current levels is highly likely to have a duel meaning this year, but that is only if Americans “man up” (or if you prefer GoGo from Big Hero 6’s version woman up) and get that shot.

 

[ABQ]

They can’t say when because it depends on things that aren’t necessarily time dependant. We get back to normal when new cases in this country fall to very low levels (under 10k cases at least.). The quickest way to do that is to vaccinate a (large) majority of Americans. Setting a specific time would disincentivize vaccination efforts, however the President has already thrown a date out there if you pay attention.

The 4th of July, provided we continue vaccinations at current levels is highly likely to have a duel meaning this year, but that is only if Americans “man up” (or if you prefer GoGo from Big Hero 6’s version woman up) and get that shot.

Was that 10k given out by the CDC or some other official source or is that just a guess you're making? Not asking you to back this one up, just wonder if it was something said elsewhere? Though, imho, cases mean little, hospitalizations mean a heck of a lot more.

 

[Touchdown]

Was that 10k given out by the CDC or some other official source or is that just a guess you're making? Not asking you to back this one up, just wonder if it was something said elsewhere? Though, imho, cases mean little, hospitalizations mean a heck of a lot more.

Pure guess, and the highest number I think they will do it at, they might go lower. That said provided numbers are on a downward trajectory and at least at that level I stand by my 4th of July prediction. IHME predicts sometime in late July but I think politicians will want to use some symbolism.

 

[Figgy1]

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...alizations-increase/ar-BB1fGXdU?ocid=msedgntp It's an interesting piece with reasons to be hopeful but still cautious

 

[DisneyCane]

If community spread is low, the "chance" of a breakthrough case will be infinitesimally small. Once community spread is low, the chance of an unvaccinated person being infected will be small too. The chance of a variant emerging that's vaccine resistant drops significantly. Huge number of vaccinated people and low community spread is basically unicorns and rainbows.

Which is why it's a measure of community spread and not an individual's vaccination status. Vaccinate enough, and we all win. Just have it available but fail to actually get it into people, and we all lose.

Do all those hesitant people want to be losers? This is a situation where the participation award IS for winners.

Once everybody who wishes to be vaccinated can do so relatively easily (without needed to jump through hoops for appointments), everything should return to normal, regardless of community spread among the people who choose not to be vaccinated. I truly couldn't care less how many of those people get sick or end up in the hospital or die. It is their choice at that point. For the unfortunate few who can't be vaccinated or are immunocompromised, they will have to take extreme precautions to protect themselves if they are high risk.

You should continue to wear a mask even after vaccination. At this time all that is known is the vaccine should prevent you from developing symptoms, but there is still an unknown if you might still be infectious to others.

No, I shouldn't. Several studies have shown that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are around 90% effective in preventing infection. They have also shown that the viral load in a vaccinated person who gets infected tends to be lower and the chance that they spread the virus is lower than for an unvaccinated person.

They can’t say when because it depends on things that aren’t necessarily time dependant. We get back to normal when new cases in this country fall to very low levels (under 10k cases at least.). The quickest way to do that is to vaccinate a (large) majority of Americans. Setting a specific time would disincentivize vaccination efforts, however the President has already thrown a date out there if you pay attention.

The 4th of July, provided we continue vaccinations at current levels is highly likely to have a duel meaning this year, but that is only if Americans “man up” (or if you prefer GoGo from Big Hero 6’s version woman up) and get that shot.

I don't really equate having a small outdoor gathering on 7/4 to be "back to normal." A clear and bold target should have been set that if X% of Americans are vaccinated by 7/3, everything goes back to normal on 7/4 including removing the mask mandate on Federal property and travel. Then there would be an incentive for everybody to be on the same "team" to get a reward if they "win."

 

[seascape]

Lets start today with the good news. Florida went back down to 29. NJ is at 40 and NY to 34. The US as whole is at 21.3. The beark down is 10 states at 30 or above and 10 states in the 20's, 22 states in the 10's and 9 in single digits.

Overall, this must me considered a good day. Vaccinations continue to go up and the number of people who are at least partially vaccinated is now 125.8 million with 78.5 million fully vaccinated. There are still 15 days including today to see the major drop I still expect to see and have the US in single digits.

 

[GhostHost1000]

They can’t say when because it depends on things that aren’t necessarily time dependant. We get back to normal when new cases in this country fall to very low levels (under 10k cases at least.). The quickest way to do that is to vaccinate a (large) majority of Americans. Setting a specific time would disincentivize vaccination efforts, however the President has already thrown a date out there if you pay attention.

The 4th of July, provided we continue vaccinations at current levels is highly likely to have a duel meaning this year, but that is only if Americans “man up” (or if you prefer GoGo from Big Hero 6’s version woman up) and get that shot.

I’m sorry but the date given by the president was that we may be able to have outdoor 4th of July celebrations with our family is a joke.

I’m not asking for a timeline, I’m asking for a goal line which you have more of than official folks

 

[havoc315]

This is likely true and quite sad:

 

[Touchdown]

I don't really equate having a small outdoor gathering on 7/4 to be "back to normal." A clear and bold target should have been set that if X% of Americans are vaccinated by 7/3, everything goes back to normal on 7/4 including removing the mask mandate on Federal property and travel. Then there would be an incentive for everybody to be on the same "team" to get a reward if they "win."

Classic underpromise over deliver. Why do you think he picked a holiday that was at the time a half year away, it wasn’t picked randomly, as Goof has constantly pointed out it was the first holiday after a majority of Americans would be vaccinated.

 

[havoc315]

This is likely true and quite sad:

And what we could accomplish with the right decisions:

 

[ParentsOf4]

Months, not years. If we're still at high levels of community spread for years, we've done something very wrong. The faster the vaccinated percentage goes up, the shorter those months will be.


Define normal? Is 75,000 cases 800 deaths daily normal, nationally? Do you have a smaller or larger number in mind?

I'm honestly asking. What's your number for normal?

Not some "at some point we have to", but a real metric. In your opinion, if you're making the call. Is 75,000 cases 800 deaths daily the new normal? Is the new normal higher or lower than that?

I'm not wondering what any of the science people are saying. They'll provide all the advice in the world about what actions will cause the numbers to go up or down. It's a policy decision then about weighing those actions and the change on the numbers against the other "not COVID" things those actions will impact. If we want to talk about when we should stop different actions, assuming we're not fighting about if the actions actually work, we should at least decide if the goal even matters.

So, what's "normal"? What's the level of daily cases and daily deaths nationally when we're all just fine with the number?


(It's not 0. Not even close to 0, well above that. But, it's not what those values were today either.)

As I’ve suggested previously, “normal” puts COVID deaths at a similar level to what the United States experiences every year for influenza deaths, about 36,000 on average. Hospitalizations have averaged 442,000 over the same time frame.

The CDC estimates that the most influenza deaths in a single flu season was 61,000, with 810,000 hospitalizations. Restrictions were not put in place at that level, so perhaps something closer to these numbers should be when we return to normal.

Perhaps these numbers are too strict. After all, there is flu season when deaths and hospitalizations are higher. So perhaps 100,000 annual deaths and 1,000,000 annual hospitalizations are "normal", assuming COVID deaths and hospitalizations are more evenly distributed throughout the year.

I can imagine some making the argument that the numbers should be higher. At what point does the cost of the restrictions outweigh the benefits?

Conversely, maybe these numbers are not strict enough. Deaths and hospitalizations are likely to rise once restrictions end. Perhaps the target numbers should be even lower.

You may not agree with any of this reasoning, and that's OK. Different people will have different opinions on what constitutes "normal".

Rather, the point is to show that, using data, it is possible to identify a level at which we can return to normal.

With multiple vaccines and 15 months of data, it simply is unacceptable for the director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases to continue to dodge the question with ambiguous responses such as "this will end, for sure, when we get the level of infection very low."

My concern is that Dr. Fauci wants a number much lower than any of the numbers I have outlined above, and is afraid to say it. If he has a number in mind, he should be prepared to defend it with science. If he does not have a number in mind, then what the heck is he doing?

 

[DisneyCane]

And what we could accomplish with the right decisions:

What are the "right decisions?" Getting vaccinated or putting in strong restrictions on top of the vaccinations? If the former I agree it is the right decision. Thus far, 37.9% of the population has begun vaccination (for FL it is 36.2%, over 80% for 65+). Regardless of hesitancy or whatever other reason, there's no reason to think it won't get to the 62% level that Israel is at now.

If you think the "right decisions" are continued strict restrictions on top of the vaccinations then I disagree strongly.

 

[Touchdown]

What are the "right decisions?" Getting vaccinated or putting in strong restrictions on top of the vaccinations? If the former I agree it is the right decision. Thus far, 37.9% of the population has begun vaccination (for FL it is 36.2%, over 80% for 65+). Regardless of hesitancy or whatever other reason, there's no reason to think it won't get to the 62% level that Israel is at now.

If you think the "right decisions" are continued strict restrictions on top of the vaccinations then I disagree strongly.

The right decision is getting a vast majority of all Americans vaccinated by any means necessarily.

 

[DisneyCane]

This morning it looks like Publix doesn't show the % remaining by County anymore. There is no waiting room as of 8AM. When you pick FL it shows a list of Counties. At 8 AM neither Broward nor Palm Beach showed up but it seems like all others were still available.

 

[ABQ]

Another bit of good, but not great news, is that even with cases going up nationwide since March 22nd or so, deaths continue to decrease over the same period. Hopefully that trend continues.

 

[Touchdown]

Also, we need to rethink vaccination availablity to make this go faster. Unlike when we were vaccinating old people, the people left work. Workers do not want to have to use a sick day to get a shot or stay home due to side effects. We need to increase staffing on Fri-Sun for the rush and othertimes just start offering walk ups. It’s time to make this process more easy to do and eliminate the excuse of it being too hard to book.

 

[carolina_yankee]

I’m not the one to ask that question to. Dr fauci and the CDC is and my concern is they can’t give us an answer so what does that mean and how long do they continue restrictions

I’ve said from the beginning of all this there has to be a line and something has to give somewhere at some point because the virus will likely always be out there and there will always be some risk involved so when will we leave the decisions up to the individuals to decide on when to do what rather than the government to tell us

Fauci said this week to Congress that that number would be somewhere below 10,000, if I remember correctly. Which leads me to think he's been consulting with @GoofGoof . We (as in humanity, including scientists) simply don't know a fixed number because these are organisms that do interesting and unpredictable things, like a typical Disney guest. As long as vaccines work and number get low, we can loosen up. What and when is a prediction at best, and based on current conditions and knowledge, at most.

Rumor mill here in NJ is that things will look *very different* (i.e., better) at the end of May or in June. We need people to get vaccinated. That's the focus right now.