But your math implies that the rate of spread continues as it is now, even with more and more people being vaccinated? So though I agree with you, the 2 months is not enough to assume the 74 deaths won't grow, but there will be fewer unvaccinated people out there spreading around the virus over the next 6, 8 and 10 months. So the deaths per millions of vaccinated will not be a linear growth rate.
The general public , or should I say the people with big voices on the internet.. were ready to lift mitigation when it was thousands dying a day. It’s a tough sell for people no matter the number. Shame.
I think that question was asked yesterday on Capital Hill of the accepted foremost authority on such things and he failed to give a straight answer.
If you look at polling the vast majority of Americans supported mitigations and still do. At one point it was north of 70% who supported masks. That’s why a company like Disney or Costco felt they could implement mask policies and be successful. There has always been a minority who wanted to lift all mitigations now. That doesn’t change. I’m talking about the vast majority who supported mitigations. Most of those people are getting vaccinated. Once they and their loved ones are vaccinated I think a lot of that demographic will start to change their minds on mitigations, especially if we hit Summer and anyone who wants a vaccine is done.
So, is 40,000 yearly deaths your number then? That's about the automobile yearly number. That's fine. Own a number, bigger, smaller, at 40K, whatever. Just pick a value that you're willing to call "normal". The "we'll never never know, we have to get back, we can't just wait" is a huge dodge. Just own a value you think is normal. Otherwise, the assumption is that you want normal NOW, and yesterday's numbers were 700+ daily deaths, 250,000+ yearly. If you're not going to share your policy position explicitly, that's the value you seem to be implicitly telling us.
It's not a scientific question. It's a policy one. I watched the Fauci/Jordan exchange. I was extremely disappointed that Fauci didn't ask Jordan what level he felt was acceptable. Defining acceptable yearly impacts is a policy question, not a scientific one. We elect politicians to make policy decisions. They get advice and guidance from the unelected science people then use it to understand those policy impacts and on what things will impact the metrics. But, at the end of the day, the decision about the level of community spread going around that we determine is "acceptable" isn't a science one, it's all policy. Between Fauci and Jordan, Fauci should be advising on impacts of different levels and ways actions will drive the levels up or down. But, it's Jordan that should be deciding on what level is acceptable. The exchange came off sounding like Jordan wanted normal today and that today's numbers were just fine to him. I don't know if that's what he really meant, and I wish Fauci had asked him that question in respsone.
How about we wait on the report before going all full negative again. All articles said they are awaiting on findings. I mean a friend of mine died after testing positive for covid and having both shots. Covid wasn't the driving force for her death. Her blood cancer was. I really don't understand why people seem to want to keep the bad news at forefront like this should never end. I'm fully vaccinated and I'm getting sick of it really. I want this to end and I don't need zero to go back to normal.
Don't get me wrong, I've followed orders and behaved as told for the time when appropriate. When I had a hard time finding masks for small faces, I stayed outside only or in my home. Once found, I even agreed to wear them outside in public many times. I joined the trial. I canceled trips and did holidays from afar with family. I'm seeing light at the end of the tunnel and am grateful for it. I do want this to end and soon. 2 summers of this will be too much for me. So that's why I look for good now. It's too exhausting to keep negative. Doesn't mean I'll misbehave either, I just need to find the positives.
If you don't have an answer to their question, it's difficult to respond, because if you respond with something as a guess, they will hold you to it, for what that's worth.
Small issue - there are a small population who would have contradictions. Not fair to me if they get it and are not covered through no fault of their own. It is a tiny population but still..
I'm all for vaccine passports.I agree. The fastest way to a return to normal is get as many people as possible vaccinated as fast as possible. I would have no issue with a vaccine passport personally, I just know it won’t happen in the US. The minority who won’t get the vaccine will delay our return to normal, but hopefully they are a small enough number that it’s only a short delay
A local health expert said the two most important things you can do to end COVID are: (1) get vaccinated; and (2) help others get vaccinated.
I agree! Been doing both though 2 weeks in a row now I've not really needed to help anyone which worries me.
20,000 to some 60,000 thousand annual covid deaths here in the US works for me.
This isn’t surprising to me re: Miami. We are here for a 3 night vacation. We are vaccinated but still only dining outdoors and sitting on the beach. If you looked at the hotel dining room last night or the lobby bar you wouldn’t think there was a pandemic. It looks exactly how it did before Covid. No masks, packed and people drinking and laughing. It was so surprising to see!
