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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

Jrb1979

Well-Known Member
I agree. The fastest way to a return to normal is get as many people as possible vaccinated as fast as possible. I would have no issue with a vaccine passport personally, I just know it won’t happen in the US. The minority who won’t get the vaccine will delay our return to normal, but hopefully they are a small enough number that it’s only a short delay :)
It may not be a country wide vaccine passport but there will be places that will require proof of being vaccinated. The Buffalo Bills have already said for next season proof of vaccine will be required to attend games. That's in the fall which is well after most should be vaccinated.
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
But they almost definitely will A. Not die B. Not be hospitalized and C. Not have a super severe case.

Sorry but idk how I’m supposed to maintain concern for literal years when I have a .008% of getting covid post vaccine and a probable .000000001 chance of dying from it.
Months, not years. If we're still at high levels of community spread for years, we've done something very wrong. The faster the vaccinated percentage goes up, the shorter those months will be.

that is major problem in my opinion because no one knows where the line is going to be drawn and those of us that are vaccinated are going to have to be restricted of normal life because of others who don’t get vaccinated.

take Disney as an example - most of us would love to see it back to normal...but when will it be? There will always be a risk so when does life become normal again or does it not
Define normal? Is 75,000 cases 800 deaths daily normal, nationally? Do you have a smaller or larger number in mind?
There will always be a risk. At some point we have to get back to normal. People are getting tired of being held back because of those who won’t get vaccinated and all the doom and gloom we see in the news (like people that get the shot may get covid so we should just masks and hide forever?). There’s a risk of riding a Disney bus to the park or riding a roller coaster etc. as well but I’ll take the risk and it’s my decision.
I'm honestly asking. What's your number for normal?

Not some "at some point we have to", but a real metric. In your opinion, if you're making the call. Is 75,000 cases 800 deaths daily the new normal? Is the new normal higher or lower than that?

I'm not wondering what any of the science people are saying. They'll provide all the advice in the world about what actions will cause the numbers to go up or down. It's a policy decision then about weighing those actions and the change on the numbers against the other "not COVID" things those actions will impact. If we want to talk about when we should stop different actions, assuming we're not fighting about if the actions actually work, we should at least decide if the goal even matters.

So, what's "normal"? What's the level of daily cases and daily deaths nationally when we're all just fine with the number?


(It's not 0. Not even close to 0, well above that. But, it's not what those values were today either.)
 

disneygeek90

Premium Member
Months, not years. If we're still at high levels of community spread for years, we've done something very wrong. The faster the vaccinated percentage goes up, the shorter those months will be.


Define normal? Is 75,000 cases 800 deaths daily normal, nationally? Do you have a smaller or larger number in mind?

I'm honestly asking. What's your number for normal?

Not some "at some point we have to", but a real metric. In your opinion, if you're making the call. Is 75,000 cases 800 deaths daily the new normal? Is the new normal higher or lower than that?

I'm not wondering what any of the science people are saying. They'll provide all the advice in the world about what actions will cause the numbers to go up or down. It's a policy decision then about weighing those actions and the change on the numbers against the other "not COVID" things those actions will impact. If we want to talk about when we should stop different actions, assuming we're not fighting about if the actions actually work, we should at least decide if the goal even matters.

So, what's "normal"? What's the level of daily cases and daily deaths nationally when we're all just fine with the number?


(It's not 0. Not even close to 0, well above that. But, it's not what those values were today either.)
Nah, I’ve accepted months. Months isn’t what I’m worried about. What I’m worried about is vaccines full available and restrictions still being pushed because there’s a “chance.”
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Months, not years. If we're still at high levels of community spread for years, we've done something very wrong. The faster the vaccinated percentage goes up, the shorter those months will be.


Define normal? Is 75,000 cases 800 deaths daily normal, nationally? Do you have a smaller or larger number in mind?

I'm honestly asking. What's your number for normal?

Not some "at some point we have to", but a real metric. In your opinion, if you're making the call. Is 75,000 cases 800 deaths daily the new normal? Is the new normal higher or lower than that?

I'm not wondering what any of the science people are saying. They'll provide all the advice in the world about what actions will cause the numbers to go up or down. It's a policy decision then about weighing those actions and the change on the numbers against the other "not COVID" things those actions will impact. If we want to talk about when we should stop different actions, assuming we're not fighting about if the actions actually work, we should at least decide if the goal even matters.

So, what's "normal"? What's the level of daily cases and daily deaths nationally when we're all just fine with the number?


(It's not 0. Not even close to 0, well above that. But, it's not what those values were today either.)
I’d say somewhere under 10,000 new positives a day nationwide and under 100 daily deaths would be good targets for a return to normal. That works out to to only around 1% of the population infected over a full year and 36,500 annual deaths. With the number of people vaccinated, especially the elderly and higher risk we should really be able to get deaths much lower than that, but I’d say that’s the max allowable for no restrictions. I think we can start dialing back restrictions prior to reaching that level, but not a full return to normal.
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
Nah, I’ve accepted months. Months isn’t what I’m worried about. What I’m worried about is vaccines full available and restrictions still being pushed because there’s a “chance.”
If community spread is low, the "chance" of a breakthrough case will be infinitesimally small. Once community spread is low, the chance of an unvaccinated person being infected will be small too. The chance of a variant emerging that's vaccine resistant drops significantly. Huge number of vaccinated people and low community spread is basically unicorns and rainbows.

Which is why it's a measure of community spread and not an individual's vaccination status. Vaccinate enough, and we all win. Just have it available but fail to actually get it into people, and we all lose. :(

Do all those hesitant people want to be losers? This is a situation where the participation award IS for winners.
 

mmascari

Well-Known Member
I’d say somewhere under 10,000 new positives a day nationwide and under 100 daily deaths would be good targets for a return to normal. That works out to to only around 1% of the population infected over a full year and 36,500 annual deaths. With the number of people vaccinated, especially the elderly and higher risk we should really be able to get deaths much lower than that, but I’d say that’s the max allowable for no restrictions. I think we can start dialing back restrictions prior to reaching that level, but not a full return to normal.
I hope you're right. I think we'll get back to normal with numbers higher than that. I would prefer your target though.
 

Rich Brownn

Well-Known Member
I don’t see an issue. We just aren’t there yet. No use worrying about a “what if” that hasn’t happened yet. If the government says we can never return to normal then the government will be replaced. We all get a vote, even in Georgia...just bring your own bottle of water ;););)

I’m vaccinated so I don’t need to wear a mask, but I understand why they aren’t just removing all public restrictions yet. If we reach the point where the vast majority of people are vaccinated and community spread is way down I’m confident the restrictions will be gone. For Disney all of the CMs haven‘t had a chance to be vaccinated yet. If they just removed all the Covid rules including masks to appeal to the vaccinated in society they would be putting some of their own workers at risk. Once everyone has had the chance to be vaccinated then that’s not an issue anymore. Those workers will be deciding to take their own risk. It’s a month or 2 before we can officially say anyone who wanted the vaccine had their shot. IMHO that is when the majority opinion is society as a whole will turn in favor of removing restrictions, including distancing and masks at WDW. Right now the majority still agrees with keeping restrictions but that will change soon.
You should continue to wear a mask even after vaccination. At this time all that is known is the vaccine should prevent you from developing symptoms, but there is still an unknown if you might still be infectious to others.
 

Chi84

Premium Member
You should continue to wear a mask even after vaccination. At this time all that is known is the vaccine should prevent you from developing symptoms, but there is still an unknown if you might still be infectious to others.
According to the CDC, 0.008% of fully vaccinated people have been infected with COVID. Only 7% of that 0.008% were hospitalized. Almost 30% were asymptomatic. Seems vaccinated people are pretty safe.
 

Bullseye1967

Premium Member
You should continue to wear a mask even after vaccination. At this time all that is known is the vaccine should prevent you from developing symptoms, but there is still an unknown if you might still be infectious to others.
There have been multiple studies that show there is little to very low risk of a fully vaccinated individual spreading COVID. The reason vaccinated people are still masking is because it is impossible to know who has and has not be vaccinated.
 

GhostHost1000

Premium Member
Define normal? Is 75,000 cases 800 deaths daily normal, nationally? Do you have a smaller or larger number in mind?

I'm honestly asking. What's your number for normal?

Not some "at some point we have to", but a real metric. In your opinion, if you're making the call. Is 75,000 cases 800 deaths daily the new normal? Is the new normal higher or lower than that?

I'm not wondering what any of the science people are saying. They'll provide all the advice in the world about what actions will cause the numbers to go up or down. It's a policy decision then about weighing those actions and the change on the numbers against the other "not COVID" things those actions will impact. If we want to talk about when we should stop different actions, assuming we're not fighting about if the actions actually work, we should at least decide if the goal even matters.

So, what's "normal"? What's the level of daily cases and daily deaths nationally when we're all just fine with the number?


(It's not 0. Not even close to 0, well above that. But, it's not what those values were today either.)
I’m not the one to ask that question to. Dr fauci and the CDC is and my concern is they can’t give us an answer so what does that mean and how long do they continue restrictions

I’ve said from the beginning of all this there has to be a line and something has to give somewhere at some point because the virus will likely always be out there and there will always be some risk involved so when will we leave the decisions up to the individuals to decide on when to do what rather than the government to tell us
 

GhostHost1000

Premium Member
There have been multiple studies that show there is little to very low risk of a fully vaccinated individual spreading COVID. The reason vaccinated people are still masking is because it is impossible to know who has and has not be vaccinated.
Which doesn’t in my opinion give much incentive for those on the fence to get the shot. I know it would be almost impossible to control and know who is unmasked that is unvaccinated or not but at what point does that give? Covid will always be around most likely and at some point we have to have the freedom to make our own decisions on what is best or safe for us and our families ourselves and accept whatever risks there may be just like we do every day when we get behind a wheel where over 4mil people get injured in automobile accidents each year.

not comparing covid to a car crash just noting risks we choose to accept to enjoy life
 
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GhostHost1000

Premium Member
Nah, I’ve accepted months. Months isn’t what I’m worried about. What I’m worried about is vaccines full available and restrictions still being pushed because there’s a “chance.”
That is exactly my fear based on them not being able to answer the question on when things might change. There HAS to be some type of return to normalcy incentive to getting these shots if they want more to take them otherwise we are going to hit the end of the demand soon and be sitting with a lot of population who won’t get one hearing about side effect risks and still needing to mask up and social distance regardless
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
That is exactly my fear based on them not being able to answer the question on when things might change. There HAS to be some type of return to normalcy incentive to getting these shots if they want more to take them otherwise we are going to hit the end of the demand soon and be sitting with a lot of population who won’t get one hearing about side effect risks and still needing to mask up and social distance regardless
They can’t say when because it depends on things that aren’t necessarily time dependant. We get back to normal when new cases in this country fall to very low levels (under 10k cases at least.). The quickest way to do that is to vaccinate a (large) majority of Americans. Setting a specific time would disincentivize vaccination efforts, however the President has already thrown a date out there if you pay attention.

The 4th of July, provided we continue vaccinations at current levels is highly likely to have a duel meaning this year, but that is only if Americans “man up” (or if you prefer GoGo from Big Hero 6’s version woman up) and get that shot.
 

ABQ

Well-Known Member
They can’t say when because it depends on things that aren’t necessarily time dependant. We get back to normal when new cases in this country fall to very low levels (under 10k cases at least.). The quickest way to do that is to vaccinate a (large) majority of Americans. Setting a specific time would disincentivize vaccination efforts, however the President has already thrown a date out there if you pay attention.

The 4th of July, provided we continue vaccinations at current levels is highly likely to have a duel meaning this year, but that is only if Americans “man up” (or if you prefer GoGo from Big Hero 6’s version woman up) and get that shot.
Was that 10k given out by the CDC or some other official source or is that just a guess you're making? Not asking you to back this one up, just wonder if it was something said elsewhere? Though, imho, cases mean little, hospitalizations mean a heck of a lot more.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
Was that 10k given out by the CDC or some other official source or is that just a guess you're making? Not asking you to back this one up, just wonder if it was something said elsewhere? Though, imho, cases mean little, hospitalizations mean a heck of a lot more.
Pure guess, and the highest number I think they will do it at, they might go lower. That said provided numbers are on a downward trajectory and at least at that level I stand by my 4th of July prediction. IHME predicts sometime in late July but I think politicians will want to use some symbolism.

3145413A-63EB-4120-82CC-BDD4F05671B1.jpeg
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
If community spread is low, the "chance" of a breakthrough case will be infinitesimally small. Once community spread is low, the chance of an unvaccinated person being infected will be small too. The chance of a variant emerging that's vaccine resistant drops significantly. Huge number of vaccinated people and low community spread is basically unicorns and rainbows.

Which is why it's a measure of community spread and not an individual's vaccination status. Vaccinate enough, and we all win. Just have it available but fail to actually get it into people, and we all lose. :(

Do all those hesitant people want to be losers? This is a situation where the participation award IS for winners.
Once everybody who wishes to be vaccinated can do so relatively easily (without needed to jump through hoops for appointments), everything should return to normal, regardless of community spread among the people who choose not to be vaccinated. I truly couldn't care less how many of those people get sick or end up in the hospital or die. It is their choice at that point. For the unfortunate few who can't be vaccinated or are immunocompromised, they will have to take extreme precautions to protect themselves if they are high risk.
You should continue to wear a mask even after vaccination. At this time all that is known is the vaccine should prevent you from developing symptoms, but there is still an unknown if you might still be infectious to others.
No, I shouldn't. Several studies have shown that the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines are around 90% effective in preventing infection. They have also shown that the viral load in a vaccinated person who gets infected tends to be lower and the chance that they spread the virus is lower than for an unvaccinated person.
They can’t say when because it depends on things that aren’t necessarily time dependant. We get back to normal when new cases in this country fall to very low levels (under 10k cases at least.). The quickest way to do that is to vaccinate a (large) majority of Americans. Setting a specific time would disincentivize vaccination efforts, however the President has already thrown a date out there if you pay attention.

The 4th of July, provided we continue vaccinations at current levels is highly likely to have a duel meaning this year, but that is only if Americans “man up” (or if you prefer GoGo from Big Hero 6’s version woman up) and get that shot.
I don't really equate having a small outdoor gathering on 7/4 to be "back to normal." A clear and bold target should have been set that if X% of Americans are vaccinated by 7/3, everything goes back to normal on 7/4 including removing the mask mandate on Federal property and travel. Then there would be an incentive for everybody to be on the same "team" to get a reward if they "win."
 
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seascape

Well-Known Member
Lets start today with the good news. Florida went back down to 29. NJ is at 40 and NY to 34. The US as whole is at 21.3. The beark down is 10 states at 30 or above and 10 states in the 20's, 22 states in the 10's and 9 in single digits.

Overall, this must me considered a good day. Vaccinations continue to go up and the number of people who are at least partially vaccinated is now 125.8 million with 78.5 million fully vaccinated. There are still 15 days including today to see the major drop I still expect to see and have the US in single digits.
 

GhostHost1000

Premium Member
They can’t say when because it depends on things that aren’t necessarily time dependant. We get back to normal when new cases in this country fall to very low levels (under 10k cases at least.). The quickest way to do that is to vaccinate a (large) majority of Americans. Setting a specific time would disincentivize vaccination efforts, however the President has already thrown a date out there if you pay attention.

The 4th of July, provided we continue vaccinations at current levels is highly likely to have a duel meaning this year, but that is only if Americans “man up” (or if you prefer GoGo from Big Hero 6’s version woman up) and get that shot.
I’m sorry but the date given by the president was that we may be able to have outdoor 4th of July celebrations with our family is a joke.

I’m not asking for a timeline, I’m asking for a goal line which you have more of than official folks
 

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