Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
Nobody knows. Of all things that people have issues with I still can't believe masks and social distancing are so high.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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Figgy1
Well-Known Member
Look at it this way. If you plan on some restrictions being around until the end of the year and they ease sooner you'll be less stressed. If you get your hopes up for earlier and they go on longer than you had planned for you'll be much more stressed. i hope that helps
GoofGoof
Premium Member
I guess Israel just has more kids. In the US adults make up 75% of the population so to get to 55% vaccinated total population you need roughly 73% of adults to be vaccinated assuming nobody under 18 goes. If we add in kids 12-18 that makes the eligible group 85% of the US population so we would need to get 65% of that group vaccinated to reach 55% total population vaccinated. We can agree to disagree that the US will hit that level vaccinated.
Israel is at 59% of their total population at least started. We would need 195M people to choose to get vaccinated to get to that level and we are at 124M right now that started. 71M new first doses to reach 59% of the population committed to vaccination. We are averaging 3.3M shots a day and they are roughly split 2 to 1 first dose vs second dose since we are still ramping up. So roughly a month away from reaching that level. We are on pace to be where Israel is right now in 4-6 weeks and certainly by the end of May.
I think we can and will be at 70%+ of 12+ vaccinated and 70% of that group means a little less than 200M people. We will have enough Pfizer and Moderna doses now for 210M people by the end of May and 7M have already gotten JnJ. If JnJ starts back up we will have enough doses to reach that number by mid-May. If it doesn’t by the end of the month. Eitjer way we are definitely on pace to be right where Israel is today.
DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
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Let's see by July we will see back to normal if restrictions may be relax or gone I guess we will might find it out soon.
DisneyFan32
Well-Known Member
- In the Parks
- Yes
What about masks and social distancing, will they may be relax or gone by July aka summer?
Figgy1
Well-Known Member
Please don't count on that happening in New Jersey
Jrb1979
Well-Known Member
No expect them to stay in place til the end of the year.
Oy vey.Thought of this post when I saw a segment on one of our local news broadcasts here
Seems a local physicist to my area thinks NM already has reached herd immunity, but, his thoughts won't drive anything as our governor just points to a fluff piece the NY Times put out about her and still insists on the 70-90% vaccination rate. Which, though a nice thing to hope for is just so unlikely to ever be achieved, so , I hope the physicist is correct.
New Mexico physicist believes state has technically reached herd immunity
A New Mexico physicist believes the state has already hit herd immunity.www.kob.com
If New Mexico was indeed at herd immunity, then the infection rate, death rate, and hospitalization rate would still be going down and not plateauing for the past month. (In fact, there's an uptick in hospitalization).
Using the SIR Model, which is used to track epidemics, herd immunity can be observed when 25% of the population has been vaccinated or recovered from the disease.
This is only true if you insert a ridiculously low R-naught number. Which COVID doesn't have. Even the least contagious diseases have herd immunity effect at at least 40%, let alone 60-80% for more contagious diseases.
A physicist (or even a physician) is not necessarily an expert in epidemiology.
HarperRose
Well-Known Member
Wyoming and North Dakota, get your crap together.
I think we will get there.... just think it's going to take longer than Israel. And it's going to be a close call.
Going to see the pace slowing down soon. For example, there are now tons of open appointments in NY.
We are getting closer to the point where the people who want the vaccine already have the vaccine.
I agree we will have enough vaccine. Vaccine hesitancy is going to become the issue, probably sooner rather than later.
I'm hoping we end up on the more optimistic side of things, but we really don't know.
sullyinMT
Well-Known Member
By that measure, ND is almost done with their vaccination program. Also, no one lives there (naturally social distanced) and it’s the least visited state by tourists, so there’s very little impact to our overall progress.
I’m relatively more concerned about MT (mostly distanced but about 1/2 the population lives in small cities), Utah, and Idaho.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Obviously it will take longer than Israel. They are 4-6 weeks ahead of us on vaccines.
Pace may slow some in some areas but not everywhere. In PA where I am they literally just opened on Monday to the general public so there are millions who just became eligible and lots left over from the phase 1 and 2 groups still looking for appointments. It is just as hard as ever to get an appointment. I think some parts of the country will get as high as 80-85% vaccinated and others maybe not much over 50%. If the polls got the ballpark correct it will all average to around 70% but of the 30% not vaccinated only 20% say “no, never” so we have some wiggle room to get somewhere between 70-80% to ultimately to go. 70% of the 85% of the population that will be eligible once 12+ is approved gets us to 60% vaccinated...right where Israel is sitting today, with 2 cases per 100,000 people.
Looking at a state like NY they have 41% of the total population started vaccination. Assuming 75% of their population is 18+ and the vast majority of the doses went to 18+ (Pfizer is open to 16 &17) that means around 55% of adults have already started the vaccine process. We would need 15% of additional adults to go in to get to 70% of adults. So the pace should slow when you start to get down into single digit percents left which will be soon in NY. But then you add in 12-15 year olds and you gain millions more eligible people. It will also vary by area within a state. Pretty soon they will need to start allocating doses to higher demand states and higher demand areas within a state. Proportional allocation is coming to an end real soon.
disneygeek90
Well-Known Member
Appears that about 35% of Florida is at least partially vaccinated at the moment.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
For anyone following along at home, we are going to reach the 200M doses administered mark today...15 days shy of May 1. Remember when the goal was 100M doses by May 1. At the pace we are going we could hit 250M 
. We also reached the milestone of 80% of people 65+ who started the vaccine process yesterday and that group is still growing. Depending on how many shots we do today we will hit the majority of adults with at least 1 shot either today or tomorrow.
Here are the stats from the CDC updated as of yesterday.
. We also reached the milestone of 80% of people 65+ who started the vaccine process yesterday and that group is still growing. Depending on how many shots we do today we will hit the majority of adults with at least 1 shot either today or tomorrow. Here are the stats from the CDC updated as of yesterday.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
36.2% according to Bloomberg. Under 74% of supply used. They need to start allocating doses to places where appointments still sell out even if that’s not “politically beneficial”.
NH has pulled into the lead with 56.2% of the population with 1 dose and 98.4% of doses used.
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