Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[DisneyFan32]

The Bloomberg tracker shows 55% in Israel fully vaccinated. The 85% from the attached tweet excludes children and then adds in naturally infected. The US will hit 50% of adults started vaccination by next week and 60% by then end of April or beginning of May. If you add in the estimated 20% plus naturally infected (like the 85% from that tweet does) we will be around 80% in less than a month. I think counting naturally infected is a flawed way to do it because we have no way of knowing how much overlap exists between naturally infected and vaccinated so some people will be double counted.

The vaccine passports in Israel are not as widespread as that. They are not used for museums or shopping malls or retail stores and people can still go to work and go to a neighbors house for a party or a meal. They are really used for clubs, bars, sporting events and indoor dining. There are still a lot of activities people can do freely without the passport. I’m not sure we can quantify how much of a difference that makes.

I assume masks and social distancing will go away for good soon by summer if vaccines will go quicker as can soon.

 

[GoofGoof]

This is correct. They rolled them out awhile ago and it was why restaurants, sporting events..etc asked for the green pass, is what there cards were called. It helped out greatly with many things but now seems to be hitting a wall because the country is so well vaccinated that a few restaurants and businesses have stopped asking for them. Be interesting to see how it plays out but definitely worked in the beginning and had much support from the citizens.

In Israel they went from no indoor dining at all to only people vaccinated. The next logical move is to relax that which appears to be happening. It’s still used extensively for really high risk venues like night clubs and places with large crowds. I could actually see some limited applications work in the US, but not for eating in a restaurant.

 

[GoofGoof]

My family has visited Israel and its a nice place to visit. I have read Israel is currently closed to tourists trying to visit

Smart move. They are way out ahead of the pack, no reason to let the rest of us in to mess it up . Maybe they can open direct flights between Israel and New Zealand.

 

[GoofGoof]

I assume masks and social distancing will go away for good soon by summer if vaccines will go quicker as can soon.

That’s the plan

 

[Lilofan]

Smart move. They are way out ahead of the pack, no reason to let the rest of us in to mess it up . Maybe they can open direct flights between Israel and New Zealand.

Whatever New Zealand is doing the USA should copy. I was shocked when I saw a NZ rugby match last summer ( NZ winter ) live on cable TV with the rugby stadium full of fans none wearing a mask.

 

[correcaminos]

Yep, agreed. When I brought up the UK recently I was shot down and told their cases look good because of lockdowns and not vaccinations but the rest of Europe moved into various levels of lockdowns again too and their cases look far worse and their vaccination level is far lower. It’s a combination of mitigation and vaccination but clearly based on a year plus of experience now the vaccinations are making a huge impact that we never achieved with mitigation alone.

I agree vaccines make a huge impact. Much further than shut downs alone - outside of doing full lock downs which this country has shown they will never do.

 

[correcaminos]

Mix of both brings cases down more quickly.

Saw 1 virologist/epidemeologist describe is succinctly: "Vaccines prevent new outbreaks, mitigation/restrictions end existing outbreaks."
That's an oversimplification but has some truth.

They both do both, but to varying levels. Vaccines break the cycle faster. Mitigations and restriction at US levels we do aren't that great. If we had all shut down completely like some places, we'd be in a different conversation. But we didn't so really it's up to vaccines.

My family has visited Israel and its a nice place to visit. I have read Israel is currently closed to tourists trying to visit

They will in just over a month. For now they are limiting other types of visits. Waiting to see if someone I know can attend their daughter's wedding there or not.

Israel to reopen to fully vaccinated tourists from May 23 - The Points Guy

Israel will reopen its borders to non-citizens for the first since the start of the pandemic.

thepointsguy.com

Whatever New Zealand is doing the USA should copy. I was shocked when I saw a NZ rugby match last summer ( NZ winter ) live on cable TV with the rugby stadium full of fans none wearing a mask.

We'd never do that in the US. We proved quickly here freedoms mattered more. I've had friends visit Taiwan and it was a whole other world there too in terms of covid and how they dealt there.

 

[mmascari]

Whatever New Zealand is doing the USA should copy. I was shocked when I saw a NZ rugby match last summer ( NZ winter ) live on cable TV with the rugby stadium full of fans none wearing a mask.

We don't have the collective will to do what New Zealand did. That plan also required definitive action when spread was relatively low. At the current level, it's not even possible.

 

[Figgy1]

I assume masks and social distancing will go away for good soon by summer if vaccines will go quicker as can soon.

I believe you're in NJ if that is correct things will not be back to what you call normal by summer. Distancing will ease first and masks will be the last to go. When that will be is not known at this point

 

[havoc315]

The Bloomberg tracker shows 55% in Israel fully vaccinated. The 85% from the attached tweet excludes children and then adds in naturally infected. The US will hit 50% of adults started vaccination by next week and 60% by then end of April or beginning of May.

You're mixing your calculations. For Israel -- You're citing 55% of total population. For US, you're talking 50% of ADULTS. For Israel, you're citing fully vaccinated, for US, you're citing first dose.

If you're comparing us to Israel -- they are 55% fully vaccinated, we are 23%.
I

If you add in the estimated 20% plus naturally infected (like the 85% from that tweet does) we will be around 80% in less than a month.

That's not how it works. The 20% naturally infected OVERLAPS with those who are vaccinated. So you can't just add them. (that's not what the Israeli stat did).

So if US hits 60% of adults vaccinated --- And 20% of the remaining 40% have natural immunity -- That is 68% of adults. Far short of Israel's 85%.

To reach Israel's 85% of adults with immunity -- Assuming 25% of Americans now have natural immunity, we would need to hit 80% of adults vaccinated. That's approximately where Israel is -- They have vaccinated 80% of adults, and about 1/4 of the non-vaccinated people have natural immunity, thereby they get to 85%.

So no... we sadly aren't on track to hit Israel's level in less than a month.

I think counting naturally infected is a flawed way to do it because we have no way of knowing how much overlap exists between naturally infected and vaccinated so some people will be double counted.

Yes... so if you want to be more accurate, use the number of vaccinated adults -- 80% in Israel.

The vaccine passports in Israel are not as widespread as that. They are not used for museums or shopping malls or retail stores and people can still go to work and go to a neighbors house for a party or a meal. They are really used for clubs, bars, sporting events and indoor dining.

Yes -- and gyms and other places. All activities where they aren't used here. Also being used for EMPLOYMENT.

There are still a lot of activities people can do freely without the passport. I’m not sure we can quantify how much of a difference that makes.

 

[DisneyFan32]

I believe you're in NJ if that is correct things will not be back to what you call normal by summer. Distancing will ease first and masks will be the last to go. When that will be is not known at this point

Let's depends both masks and social distancing could gone quicker if vaccines are quickly done.

 

[Figgy1]

Let's depends both masks and social distancing could gone quicker if vaccines are quickly done.

Quicker yes but there are no set dates. Expect masks to remain until at least the end of the year in public places

 

[DisneyFan32]

Quicker yes but there are no set dates. Expect masks to remain until at least the end of the year in public places

Possible August, September or October?

 

[DisneyCane]

Quicker yes but there are no set dates. Expect masks to remain until at least the end of the year in public places

Depending on the State. In States that have been big on mask mandates, I agree with you.

Even though a prominent person said only through April 30th, I'd be shocked if there wasn't still a mandate onboard my flight in early May.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Depending on the State. In States that have been big on mask mandates, I agree with you.

Even though a prominent person said only through April 30th, I'd be shocked if there wasn't still a mandate onboard my flight in early May.

So by July I might don't have to wear masks at all, if masks are optional?

 

[Jrb1979]

So by July I might don't have to wear masks at all, if masks are optional?

Highly doubtful. I see masks staying around for indoors for most of the summer in many places.

 

[Figgy1]

Possible August, September or October?

There isn't enough information yet and NJ will factor children into the percentage of population vaccinated. As I said plan until the end of the year for masks

 

[DisneyFan32]

There isn't enough information yet and NJ will factor children into the percentage of population vaccinated. As I said plan until the end of the year for masks

Again please, possible maybe social distancing will go remove first by summer and by end of summer CDC could remove masks for good if vaccines goes quickly than end of the year.

 

[Figgy1]

Again please, possible maybe social distancing will go remove first by summer and by end of summer CDC could remove masks for good if vaccines goes quickly than end of the year.

I'm sorry I will not lie to you. I can only pass on information I've heard from people working in public health in the state

 

[DisneyFan32]

I'm sorry I will not lie to you. I can only pass on information I've heard from people working in public health in the state

So nobody knows when masks will be gone along with social distancing yet? My still guess is summer/fall.