Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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GaBoy

Well-Known Member
Here's another interesting article. Once you get away from Atlanta and its suburbs, it gets increasingly easy to find vaccine slots on short notice. In addition to what's described in the article, I know some who are waiting for it to become easy to get slots at their local pharmacy (which typically has a weeks-long backlog) before getting their vaccine.

In Mississippi, 73,000 Vaccine Slots and Few Takers​

Andrew Jacobs
Fri, April 9, 2021, 8:08 AM

When it comes to getting the coronavirus vaccine, Mississippi residents have an abundance of options. On Thursday, there were more than 73,000 slots to be had on the state’s scheduling website, up from 68,000 on Tuesday.

In some ways, the growing glut of appointments in Mississippi is something to celebrate: It reflects the mounting supplies that have prompted states across the country to open up eligibility to anyone over 16.

But public health experts say the pileup of unclaimed appointments in Mississippi exposes something more worrisome: the large number of people who are reluctant to get inoculated.

“It’s time to do the heavy lifting needed to overcome the hesitancy we’re encountering,” said Dr. Obie McNair, an internal medicine practitioner in Jackson, the state capital, whose office has a plentiful supply of vaccines but not enough takers.

Although access remains a problem in rural Mississippi, experts say that the state — one of the first to open eligibility to all adults three weeks ago — may be a harbinger of what much of the country will confront in the coming weeks, as increasing supplies enable most Americans who want the vaccine to easily make appointments.

The hesitancy has national implications. Experts say between 70% to 90% of all Americans must be vaccinated for the country to reach herd immunity, the point at which the virus can no longer spread through the population.

When it comes to rates of vaccination, Mississippi still has a way to go, with just a quarter of all residents having received at least one dose compared with the nationwide average of 33%, according to state data. Other Southern states, among them Tennessee, Arkansas, Alabama and Georgia, have similarly low rates of vaccination.

A closer look at Mississippi’s demographics explains why hesitancy may be especially pronounced. The state reliably votes Republican, a group that remains highly skeptical of the coronavirus vaccine. Nearly half of all Republican men and 40% of Republicans overall have said they do not plan to get vaccinated, according to several recent surveys. Those figures have barely budged in the months since vaccines first became available. By contrast, just 4% of Democrats have said they will not get the vaccine.

Another factor in the state’s low vaccination rate may be Mississippi’s large Black community, which comprises 38% of the state’s population but accounts for 31% of the doses administered, according to state data. Vaccine hesitancy remains somewhat high among African Americans, although the doubts and distrust — tied largely to past government malfeasance like the notorious Tuskegee syphilis experiments — have markedly declined in recent months.

According to a survey by the Kaiser Family Foundation released last week, about 55% of Black adults said they had been vaccinated or planned to be soon, up 14 percentage points from February, a rate that approaches those of Hispanics, at 61%, and whites, at 64%.

A number of other heavily Republican states are also finding themselves with surfeits of doses. On Thursday, officials in Oklahoma, which has delivered at least one dose to 34% of its residents, announced they would open up eligibility to out-of-state residents, and in recent weeks, Republican governors in Ohio and Georgia voiced concern about the lackluster vaccine demand among their residents.

Tim Callaghan, an assistant professor at the Texas A&M University School of Public Health and an expert on vaccine skepticism, said that more research was needed to divine the reasons behind Mississippi’s slackening vaccine demand but that states with large rural populations, Republican voters and African Americans were likely to be the first to confront the problem. “If you’re looking to see vaccine hesitancy to emerge, it’s going to be in red states like Mississippi,” he said.

Mississippi officials are well aware of the challenge. On Tuesday, Gov. Tate Reeves held a news conference with a panel of medical experts who sought to dispel some of the misinformation surrounding the vaccines. They tried to explain the vaccine development process, rebutted claims that the vaccine can cause miscarriages and recounted their own personal experiences after getting the shot.

“I had about 18 hours of turbulence,” Reeves said, describing the mild, flulike symptoms he had felt after his second injection. “But I was able to continue and move on and work, and I feel much better waking up every day knowing that I have been vaccinated.”

Access is still a challenge in swaths of rural Mississippi, especially among African Americans who live far from the drive-thru vaccination sites in urban areas that account for roughly half the doses administered by the state. The scheduling system has also proved frustrating for the poor and for older people, who often lack internet access to book appointments or the transportation to get them to distant vaccination sites.

“We’ve got to take the vaccines to the people, to pop-up locations that don’t require internet or registration in advance,” said Pam Chatman, the founder of Boss Lady Workforce Transportation, a system of minivans that has been ferrying residents in the Mississippi Delta to mass vaccination locations.

Demand among African Americans was still robust, she said, noting long lines that formed this week outside a tent in Indianola, a small city in the Delta, where the single-dose Johnson & Johnson vaccine was being offered. (The tents offering the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines, which require two doses, were nearly empty.)

But hesitancy is rife. Dr. Vernon Rayford, an internal medicine doctor in Tupelo, said he had been frustrated by patients who offered up a variety of reasons for rejecting the vaccine. They claim it will give them COVID-19 or render them infertile, and they worry about unknown repercussions that might emerge decades down the road. “I’ve heard some really wacky theories,” he said.

Rayford, who sees patients of all races, said he had discerned subtle differences in the skepticism: African Americans voice mistrust of the health care system, while whites express a more amorphous distrust of government. “It’s like that line from ‘Anna Karenina,’” he said. “‘All happy families are alike; each unhappy family is unhappy in its own way.’”

Dr. Brian Castrucci, president of the de Beaumont Foundation, which focuses on public health, has been working on ways to allay such fears. Castrucci, an epidemiologist, is especially worried about young conservatives, ages 18 to 34; he cited a recent survey that found that 55% of college-educated Republican women under age 49 would not get vaccinated.

“Its polls like these that keep me awake at night,” he said.

The biggest obstacles to greater vaccine acceptance, he said, are the misinformation that flourishes on social media and the mixed messaging from Republican governors that leave people confused.

“By relaxing COVID restrictions, elected leaders in states like Florida, Mississippi, Texas and Georgia are pushing narratives about coronavirus that are working against a narrative that promotes the urgency of vaccinations,” he said. “And unfortunately, our vaccine campaigns are being undone late at night by Facebook and Twitter and Instagram.”

Until now, Mississippi health officials have been focusing much of their vaccine hesitancy efforts on African American and Hispanic residents through partnerships with churches and health clinics. Reeves, a Republican, has so far declined to single out skepticism among white conservatives in the state, but health officials said they were planning to address the problem through Facebook and Zoom meetings with local organizations.

Public health experts say what’s needed are well-crafted messages delivered by doctors, religious leaders and other figures who are trusted in a particular community. Dr. Thomas Friedan, a former director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention who took part in a focus group with vaccine-hesitant Trump voters that was organized last month by the de Beaumont Foundation, said participants wanted their fears acknowledged, and they craved factual information without being lectured or belittled.

“There isn’t one right way to communicate about vaccines, but you need multiple messages with multiple messengers,” said Friedan, who leads the health advocacy group Resolve to Save Lives. “And people don’t want to hear from politicians.
In a few short weeks or months (in the spots around this country that have open slots) I am going to start caring a lot less about protecting others if they decide to not protect themselves.
 

LovePop

Well-Known Member
I did some spreadsheet today about the up to date death rate of covid by population. I got my info from google. Here is the result:
Capture.PNG

What I find interesting is that Florida has the least death rate by population at 34/2110=.11%, whereas California has .15%, despite being locked down. Montana, a remote state will large space and little population, and not locked down, and is considered a covid haven by some people, has a higher death rate than Florida. NY, which has locked down, has more than double the death rate of Florida. Sweden, the only country famous for not even encouraging masks or social distancing, has less death than Montana and California, though more than Florida. There can be a lot of reasons why all of this is the case, I just want to present the numbers here.

Source:
or google "us coronavirus chart" and click different countries and states to see numbers.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
I did some spreadsheet today about the up to date death rate of covid by population. I got my info from google. Here is the result:
View attachment 547169
What I find interesting is that Florida has the least death rate by population at 34/2110=.11%, whereas California has .15%, despite being locked down. Montana, a remote state will large space and little population, and not locked down, and is considered a covid haven by some people, has a higher death rate than Florida. NY, which has locked down, has more than double the death rate of Florida. Sweden, the only country famous for not even encouraging masks or social distancing, has less death than Montana and California, though more than Florida. There can be a lot of reasons why all of this is the case, I just want to present the numbers here.

Source:
or google "us coronavirus chart" and click different countries and states to see numbers.
Run the same numbers excluding March and April in NY when the virus hit hard without warning. States like FL And MT had a huge heads up of what to expect and were able to better prepare LT care facilities where a large portion of the deaths occurred. I also think we have to go back and see who was “locked down” and when. For example, last Summer FL actually had as many restrictions as CA for a few months. Theme parks weren’t open in CA and were in FL but bars and restaurants were open in CA and we forget that FL shut down bars and restricted restaurant capacity last Summer too. In Miami, which is the only true urban center in FL, restaurants were very limited and/or takeout only at points last Summer. It really wasn’t until September that FL removed all statewide restrictions so if the goal is to draw a conclusion on the impact of restrictions on death rate you should probably compare the period from September to current day death rates in FL vs a state like NY which continued restrictions.

Sweden is a pretty interesting comparison. It’s often held up as the gold standard for not having restrictions yet if WDW was located in Sweden it would not have reopened for business. Sweden kept large gatherings shut down and in actuality had a lot of restrictions.
 

Touchdown

Well-Known Member
I did some spreadsheet today about the up to date death rate of covid by population. I got my info from google. Here is the result:
View attachment 547169
What I find interesting is that Florida has the least death rate by population at 34/2110=.11%, whereas California has .15%, despite being locked down. Montana, a remote state will large space and little population, and not locked down, and is considered a covid haven by some people, has a higher death rate than Florida. NY, which has locked down, has more than double the death rate of Florida. Sweden, the only country famous for not even encouraging masks or social distancing, has less death than Montana and California, though more than Florida. There can be a lot of reasons why all of this is the case, I just want to present the numbers here.

Source:
or google "us coronavirus chart" and click different countries and states to see numbers.
Not to blow the conspiracy horn, but Florida has been called out multiple times for having a death rate that falls far below expectations given their case rate, hospitalization rate, and population risks. It was quickly centralized by DeSantis and constantly 1-2 weeks behind in reporting. I wouldn’t toot the mortality rate just yet.
 

GoofGoof

Premium Member
Run the same numbers excluding March and April in NY when the virus hit hard without warning. States like FL And MT had a huge heads up of what to expect and were able to better prepare LT care facilities where a large portion of the deaths occurred. I also think we have to go back and see who was “locked down” and when. For example, last Summer FL actually had as many restrictions as CA for a few months. Theme parks weren’t open in CA and were in FL but bars and restaurants were open in CA and we forget that FL shut down bars and restricted restaurant capacity last Summer too. In Miami, which is the only true urban center in FL, restaurants were very limited and/or takeout only at points last Summer. It really wasn’t until September that FL removed all statewide restrictions so if the goal is to draw a conclusion on the impact of restrictions on death rate you should probably compare the period from September to current day death rates in FL vs a state like NY which continued restrictions.

Sweden is a pretty interesting comparison. It’s often held up as the gold standard for not having restrictions yet if WDW was located in Sweden it would not have reopened for business. Sweden kept large gatherings shut down and in actuality had a lot of restrictions.
The actual numbers:
FL deaths from 9/1 to current 22,655 or 105 per 100,000 people (67% of total deaths)
NY deaths from 9/1 to current 17,998 or 92 per 100,000 people (35% of total deaths)

If it were true that no other factors came into play except how “locked down“ each state was (which is far from true) this shows that since FL removed restrictions they have 13 more deaths per 100,000 people compared to NY or the FL population adjusted equivalent of 2,800 extra deaths.

This is a completely flawed analysis since there are so many other factors at play. The only true comparison would be to compare what would have happened in FL if the restrictions were not removed vs what actually happened. Since we don’t have a time machine we will never know. We do know that more cases mean more deaths and we also know less public interaction (especially without masks) means less spread. We have no way to quantify how many cases and/or deaths could have been avoided with more restrictions. Comparing to other states does not tell the whole story.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
All are booked now. Interesting the way they are doing the appointments. Wonder if the J&J books quicker due to it being a weekend vs M-F.View attachment 546968
They aren't all booked. They just paused the the appointment system until Monday morning for some reason. If you look at the list of counties, the ones that were all booked say "none available" while the counties that still had appointments available say "coming soon."

There were still a ton available in many counties before the page changed.
 

JoeCamel

Well-Known Member
They aren't all booked. They just paused the the appointment system until Monday morning for some reason. If you look at the list of counties, the ones that were all booked say "none available" while the counties that still had appointments available say "coming soon."

There were still a ton available in many counties before the page changed.
Probably the reduced J&J shipments expected for the next two weeks. They have to reshuffle. How much Pfizer and Moderna have been delivered and what is the expected dates? I think we may be outrunning current supply
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
I did some spreadsheet today about the up to date death rate of covid by population. I got my info from google. Here is the result:
View attachment 547169
What I find interesting is that Florida has the least death rate by population at 34/2110=.11%, whereas California has .15%, despite being locked down. Montana, a remote state will large space and little population, and not locked down, and is considered a covid haven by some people, has a higher death rate than Florida. NY, which has locked down, has more than double the death rate of Florida. Sweden, the only country famous for not even encouraging masks or social distancing, has less death than Montana and California, though more than Florida. There can be a lot of reasons why all of this is the case, I just want to present the numbers here.

Source:
or google "us coronavirus chart" and click different countries and states to see numbers.

But Sweden has FAR more death than the other nordic countries. And really, the country that did the least in terms of lockdowns is Brazil... and the disease is raging out of control there.

Though you can't just look at which countries locked down and which didn't. There are seasonal issues, geographic issues, population density issues. With mitigation, there is compliance rates. A "lockdown" is meaningless without compliance. In many cases, "lock down" localities weren't that different than "open" localities. As the "open" localities still had lots of voluntary mitigation, while "lock down" still had lots of non-compliance. And of course, different states also record and report deaths differently. (Florida has been accused of undercounting, but I'll put that aside).

Beyond that... Your stats don't match other official sources... death rate in California is actually lower than Texas and Florida:
Texas at .17%, Florida at .158% and California at .152%

1618075916273.png



Now, getting to Sweden compared to other Nordic countries:
Sweden: .134%
Denmark: .042%
Finland: .015%
Norway: .013%

So compared to other countries within the region (and therefore sharing seasonality, likely sharing the same variants, cultural similarities): Sweden's death rate is triple the rate in Denmark and 10 times the rate of Norway.

Which is why Sweden's experiment was considered a failure and why they now have put in significant "lock down" restrictions. They learned their lesson.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
Probably the reduced J&J shipments expected for the next two weeks. They have to reshuffle. How much Pfizer and Moderna have been delivered and what is the expected dates? I think we may be outrunning current supply

It might be more than two weeks, they are calling it a "few weeks", also seen "3 weeks", and are no longer confident they will be shipping more by the end of April.

"With domestic production of the company’s vaccine still unapproved, the government slashed its national allocation of the J&J vaccine to states by 86 percent to just 700,000 doses next week, down from nearly 5 million, a cut that Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) called “very concerning."

"State officials in Maryland were preparing for a longer wait than Zients outlined. Hogan said Friday that White House officials notified him the reduction will extend for three weeks"


Additionally, increasing reports of adverse reactions from J&J could sadly reduce confidence in that vaccine.
 

DisneyCane

Well-Known Member
Probably the reduced J&J shipments expected for the next two weeks. They have to reshuffle. How much Pfizer and Moderna have been delivered and what is the expected dates? I think we may be outrunning current supply
The booking window yesterday was Moderna only for M-F next week. Now it looks like it will open again Monday for Moderna Tu-F.
 

havoc315

Well-Known Member
The actual numbers:
FL deaths from 9/1 to current 22,655 or 105 per 100,000 people (67% of total deaths)
NY deaths from 9/1 to current 17,998 or 92 per 100,000 people (35% of total deaths)

If it were true that no other factors came into play except how “locked down“ each state was (which is far from true) this shows that since FL removed restrictions they have 13 more deaths per 100,000 people compared to NY or the FL population adjusted equivalent of 2,800 extra deaths.

This is a completely flawed analysis since there are so many other factors at play. The only true comparison would be to compare what would have happened in FL if the restrictions were not removed vs what actually happened. Since we don’t have a time machine we will never know. We do know that more cases mean more deaths and we also know less public interaction (especially without masks) means less spread. We have no way to quantify how many cases and/or deaths could have been avoided with more restrictions. Comparing to other states does not tell the whole story.

Well said. There are too many factors in play to compare states in different regions, with different population types, different seasonality, etc.
But for those that say "New York locked down and had the most deaths" -- Most of those deaths were triggered BEFORE the lockdowns ever began. NOBODY was locked down until mid-late March 2020, by which time Covid was already spreading like wildfire in NY (unknown at the time because we weren't testing yet).
Basically, "lockdowns" started getting lifted in varying degrees in different places starting in late April. And while it is difficult to truly make comparisons, the general trend is that since that time, states/localities with more mitigation have fared significantly better than states and regions with less mitigation.

Florida and New York are pretty close in population (around 20 million). Since June 1, 2020: Florida has reported about 31,500 deaths. New York, which was just starting to loosen their lockdown as of June 1, 2020: 21,000.
Now, not claiming the difference is solely due to mitigation restrictions.
But you'd find this difference holds pretty consistent when comparing mitigation vs less-mitigation regions. Compare Vermont to the Dakotas, for example.
 

sullyinMT

Well-Known Member
I did some spreadsheet today about the up to date death rate of covid by population. I got my info from google. Here is the result:
View attachment 547169
What I find interesting is that Florida has the least death rate by population at 34/2110=.11%, whereas California has .15%, despite being locked down. Montana, a remote state will large space and little population, and not locked down, and is considered a covid haven by some people, has a higher death rate than Florida. NY, which has locked down, has more than double the death rate of Florida. Sweden, the only country famous for not even encouraging masks or social distancing, has less death than Montana and California, though more than Florida. There can be a lot of reasons why all of this is the case, I just want to present the numbers here.

Source:
or google "us coronavirus chart" and click different countries and states to see numbers.
I’ll give you our small towns, but Montana’s population centers are far from “COVID havens”. Until recently, with fatigue setting in like a lot of the country, our bigger cities were doing quite well with mitigation attempts. In fact, I live in our most populated county and we have infection rates similar to California as a state. Interestingly, it is our counties and cities where polls say things should be better based on voting records and who wants vaccines that are keeping our numbers up.

Final defense of Montana from a case fatality front: we are a very old state. In our 40’s, we’re the younger generation. Knowing who the virus targets most, death rates aren’t shocking, at all.
 
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GoofGoof

Premium Member
Well said. There are too many factors in play to compare states in different regions, with different population types, different seasonality, etc.
But for those that say "New York locked down and had the most deaths" -- Most of those deaths were triggered BEFORE the lockdowns ever began. NOBODY was locked down until mid-late March 2020, by which time Covid was already spreading like wildfire in NY (unknown at the time because we weren't testing yet).
Basically, "lockdowns" started getting lifted in varying degrees in different places starting in late April. And while it is difficult to truly make comparisons, the general trend is that since that time, states/localities with more mitigation have fared significantly better than states and regions with less mitigation.

Florida and New York are pretty close in population (around 20 million). Since June 1, 2020: Florida has reported about 31,500 deaths. New York, which was just starting to loosen their lockdown as of June 1, 2020: 21,000.
Now, not claiming the difference is solely due to mitigation restrictions.
But you'd find this difference holds pretty consistent when comparing mitigation vs less-mitigation regions. Compare Vermont to the Dakotas, for example.
I agree that comparing states in different regions is not a great approach, but there’s a desire to do so from both sides when the stats support their narrative. The fact is we have no way of knowing how many deaths were avoided by Covid restrictions that were implemented and how many deaths could have been avoided if we did more. On the flip side we don’t know the full economic impact of Covid restrictions alone. If we did an initial wave of stay at home orders and everyone actually followed them for the appropriate amount of time maybe cases would have stayed lower and the economy would have actually recovered faster...see Hawaii or in an extreme example some other countries like New Zealand. It’s impossible to know what would have happened. For many years after the dust settles I think there will be all kinds of studies done to attempt to answer those questions, but it’s too soon to start yet.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
The actual numbers:
FL deaths from 9/1 to current 22,655 or 105 per 100,000 people (67% of total deaths)
NY deaths from 9/1 to current 17,998 or 92 per 100,000 people (35% of total deaths)

If it were true that no other factors came into play except how “locked down“ each state was (which is far from true) this shows that since FL removed restrictions they have 13 more deaths per 100,000 people compared to NY or the FL population adjusted equivalent of 2,800 extra deaths.

This is a completely flawed analysis since there are so many other factors at play. The only true comparison would be to compare what would have happened in FL if the restrictions were not removed vs what actually happened. Since we don’t have a time machine we will never know. We do know that more cases mean more deaths and we also know less public interaction (especially without masks) means less spread. We have no way to quantify how many cases and/or deaths could have been avoided with more restrictions. Comparing to other states does not tell the whole story.
It's difficult to compare each state with each other as data can be massaged to tell all sorts of stories.

For example, when comparing death rates, CDC data overwhelmingly shows that age is the most significant factor:

By Age.jpg


While Florida has one of the oldest populations in the United States:

Median Age.jpg


My view is that many state mandates were irrelevant. Instead, how strictly private businesses and stores (places where non-family members are most likely to gather indoors) enforced masks and social distancing is a significant factor that often gets ignored.
 
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GoofGoof

Premium Member
It's difficult to compare each state with each other as data can be massaged to tell all sorts of stories.

For example, when comparing death rates, CDC data overwhelmingly shows that age is the most significant factor:

View attachment 547209

While Florida has one of the oldest populations in the United States:

View attachment 547208
Makes you wonder if perhaps the states with the oldest population should have had a higher level of restrictions due to the inherent risks presented to their population. It’s neither here nor there at this point, but an interesting idea.
 

DisneyDebRob

Well-Known Member
But Sweden has FAR more death than the other nordic countries. And really, the country that did the least in terms of lockdowns is Brazil... and the disease is raging out of control there.

Though you can't just look at which countries locked down and which didn't. There are seasonal issues, geographic issues, population density issues. With mitigation, there is compliance rates. A "lockdown" is meaningless without compliance. In many cases, "lock down" localities weren't that different than "open" localities. As the "open" localities still had lots of voluntary mitigation, while "lock down" still had lots of non-compliance. And of course, different states also record and report deaths differently. (Florida has been accused of undercounting, but I'll put that aside).

Beyond that... Your stats don't match other official sources... death rate in California is actually lower than Texas and Florida:
Texas at .17%, Florida at .158% and California at .152%

View attachment 547193


Now, getting to Sweden compared to other Nordic countries:
Sweden: .134%
Denmark: .042%
Finland: .015%
Norway: .013%

So compared to other countries within the region (and therefore sharing seasonality, likely sharing the same variants, cultural similarities): Sweden's death rate is triple the rate in Denmark and 10 times the rate of Norway.

Which is why Sweden's experiment was considered a failure and why they now have put in significant "lock down" restrictions. They learned their lesson.
But was touted here by many a year ago,April-may 2020 as the gold standard that the US should be following. Can you imagine.
 

ParentsOf4

Well-Known Member
Makes you wonder if perhaps the states with the oldest population should have had a higher level of restrictions due to the inherent risks presented to their population. It’s neither here nor there at this point, but an interesting idea.
Sorry, I added something to my last post that it seems you did not have a chance to read, so I'll add it here as well:

My view is that many state mandates were irrelevant. Instead, how strictly private businesses and retail stores (places where non-family members are most likely to gather indoors) enforced masks and social distancing is a significant factor that often gets ignored.

IMO, there was not a huge amount of variance from state-to-state because even in those states that eased up more quickly than others, most large private businesses and chain stores continued to require masks and social distancing.

So although governor 'X' had such-and-such rules and eased up on those rules at such-and-such rates, large businesses and major realtors mostly ignored what those governors were doing and kept in place the rules they were being advised to follow by their health experts.
 
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