Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[LovePop]

I did some spreadsheet today about the up to date death rate of covid by population. I got my info from google. Here is the result:

What I find interesting is that Florida has the least death rate by population at 34/2110=.11%, whereas California has .15%, despite being locked down. Montana, a remote state will large space and little population, and not locked down, and is considered a covid haven by some people, has a higher death rate than Florida. NY, which has locked down, has more than double the death rate of Florida. Sweden, the only country famous for not even encouraging masks or social distancing, has less death than Montana and California, though more than Florida. There can be a lot of reasons why all of this is the case, I just want to present the numbers here.

Source:

Google Search

or google "us coronavirus chart" and click different countries and states to see numbers.

 

[GoofGoof]

I did some spreadsheet today about the up to date death rate of covid by population. I got my info from google. Here is the result:
View attachment 547169
What I find interesting is that Florida has the least death rate by population at 34/2110=.11%, whereas California has .15%, despite being locked down. Montana, a remote state will large space and little population, and not locked down, and is considered a covid haven by some people, has a higher death rate than Florida. NY, which has locked down, has more than double the death rate of Florida. Sweden, the only country famous for not even encouraging masks or social distancing, has less death than Montana and California, though more than Florida. There can be a lot of reasons why all of this is the case, I just want to present the numbers here.

Source:

Google Search

or google "us coronavirus chart" and click different countries and states to see numbers.

Run the same numbers excluding March and April in NY when the virus hit hard without warning. States like FL And MT had a huge heads up of what to expect and were able to better prepare LT care facilities where a large portion of the deaths occurred. I also think we have to go back and see who was “locked down” and when. For example, last Summer FL actually had as many restrictions as CA for a few months. Theme parks weren’t open in CA and were in FL but bars and restaurants were open in CA and we forget that FL shut down bars and restricted restaurant capacity last Summer too. In Miami, which is the only true urban center in FL, restaurants were very limited and/or takeout only at points last Summer. It really wasn’t until September that FL removed all statewide restrictions so if the goal is to draw a conclusion on the impact of restrictions on death rate you should probably compare the period from September to current day death rates in FL vs a state like NY which continued restrictions.

Sweden is a pretty interesting comparison. It’s often held up as the gold standard for not having restrictions yet if WDW was located in Sweden it would not have reopened for business. Sweden kept large gatherings shut down and in actuality had a lot of restrictions.

 

[Touchdown]

I did some spreadsheet today about the up to date death rate of covid by population. I got my info from google. Here is the result:
View attachment 547169
What I find interesting is that Florida has the least death rate by population at 34/2110=.11%, whereas California has .15%, despite being locked down. Montana, a remote state will large space and little population, and not locked down, and is considered a covid haven by some people, has a higher death rate than Florida. NY, which has locked down, has more than double the death rate of Florida. Sweden, the only country famous for not even encouraging masks or social distancing, has less death than Montana and California, though more than Florida. There can be a lot of reasons why all of this is the case, I just want to present the numbers here.

Source:

Google Search

or google "us coronavirus chart" and click different countries and states to see numbers.

Not to blow the conspiracy horn, but Florida has been called out multiple times for having a death rate that falls far below expectations given their case rate, hospitalization rate, and population risks. It was quickly centralized by DeSantis and constantly 1-2 weeks behind in reporting. I wouldn’t toot the mortality rate just yet.

 

[GoofGoof]

Run the same numbers excluding March and April in NY when the virus hit hard without warning. States like FL And MT had a huge heads up of what to expect and were able to better prepare LT care facilities where a large portion of the deaths occurred. I also think we have to go back and see who was “locked down” and when. For example, last Summer FL actually had as many restrictions as CA for a few months. Theme parks weren’t open in CA and were in FL but bars and restaurants were open in CA and we forget that FL shut down bars and restricted restaurant capacity last Summer too. In Miami, which is the only true urban center in FL, restaurants were very limited and/or takeout only at points last Summer. It really wasn’t until September that FL removed all statewide restrictions so if the goal is to draw a conclusion on the impact of restrictions on death rate you should probably compare the period from September to current day death rates in FL vs a state like NY which continued restrictions.

Sweden is a pretty interesting comparison. It’s often held up as the gold standard for not having restrictions yet if WDW was located in Sweden it would not have reopened for business. Sweden kept large gatherings shut down and in actuality had a lot of restrictions.

The actual numbers:
FL deaths from 9/1 to current 22,655 or 105 per 100,000 people (67% of total deaths)
NY deaths from 9/1 to current 17,998 or 92 per 100,000 people (35% of total deaths)

If it were true that no other factors came into play except how “locked down“ each state was (which is far from true) this shows that since FL removed restrictions they have 13 more deaths per 100,000 people compared to NY or the FL population adjusted equivalent of 2,800 extra deaths.

This is a completely flawed analysis since there are so many other factors at play. The only true comparison would be to compare what would have happened in FL if the restrictions were not removed vs what actually happened. Since we don’t have a time machine we will never know. We do know that more cases mean more deaths and we also know less public interaction (especially without masks) means less spread. We have no way to quantify how many cases and/or deaths could have been avoided with more restrictions. Comparing to other states does not tell the whole story.

 

[DisneyCane]

All are booked now. Interesting the way they are doing the appointments. Wonder if the J&J books quicker due to it being a weekend vs M-F.View attachment 546968

They aren't all booked. They just paused the the appointment system until Monday morning for some reason. If you look at the list of counties, the ones that were all booked say "none available" while the counties that still had appointments available say "coming soon."

There were still a ton available in many counties before the page changed.

 

[JoeCamel]

They aren't all booked. They just paused the the appointment system until Monday morning for some reason. If you look at the list of counties, the ones that were all booked say "none available" while the counties that still had appointments available say "coming soon."

There were still a ton available in many counties before the page changed.

Probably the reduced J&J shipments expected for the next two weeks. They have to reshuffle. How much Pfizer and Moderna have been delivered and what is the expected dates? I think we may be outrunning current supply

 

[havoc315]

I did some spreadsheet today about the up to date death rate of covid by population. I got my info from google. Here is the result:
View attachment 547169
What I find interesting is that Florida has the least death rate by population at 34/2110=.11%, whereas California has .15%, despite being locked down. Montana, a remote state will large space and little population, and not locked down, and is considered a covid haven by some people, has a higher death rate than Florida. NY, which has locked down, has more than double the death rate of Florida. Sweden, the only country famous for not even encouraging masks or social distancing, has less death than Montana and California, though more than Florida. There can be a lot of reasons why all of this is the case, I just want to present the numbers here.

Source:

Google Search

or google "us coronavirus chart" and click different countries and states to see numbers.

But Sweden has FAR more death than the other nordic countries. And really, the country that did the least in terms of lockdowns is Brazil... and the disease is raging out of control there.

Though you can't just look at which countries locked down and which didn't. There are seasonal issues, geographic issues, population density issues. With mitigation, there is compliance rates. A "lockdown" is meaningless without compliance. In many cases, "lock down" localities weren't that different than "open" localities. As the "open" localities still had lots of voluntary mitigation, while "lock down" still had lots of non-compliance. And of course, different states also record and report deaths differently. (Florida has been accused of undercounting, but I'll put that aside).

Beyond that... Your stats don't match other official sources... death rate in California is actually lower than Texas and Florida:
Texas at .17%, Florida at .158% and California at .152%

Now, getting to Sweden compared to other Nordic countries:
Sweden: .134%
Denmark: .042%
Finland: .015%
Norway: .013%

So compared to other countries within the region (and therefore sharing seasonality, likely sharing the same variants, cultural similarities): Sweden's death rate is triple the rate in Denmark and 10 times the rate of Norway.

Which is why Sweden's experiment was considered a failure and why they now have put in significant "lock down" restrictions. They learned their lesson.

 

[havoc315]

Probably the reduced J&J shipments expected for the next two weeks. They have to reshuffle. How much Pfizer and Moderna have been delivered and what is the expected dates? I think we may be outrunning current supply

It might be more than two weeks, they are calling it a "few weeks", also seen "3 weeks", and are no longer confident they will be shipping more by the end of April.

"With domestic production of the company’s vaccine still unapproved, the government slashed its national allocation of the J&J vaccine to states by 86 percent to just 700,000 doses next week, down from nearly 5 million, a cut that Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan (R) called “very concerning."

"State officials in Maryland were preparing for a longer wait than Zients outlined. Hogan said Friday that White House officials notified him the reduction will extend for three weeks"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/04/09/johnson-johnson-vaccine-delays/

Additionally, increasing reports of adverse reactions from J&J could sadly reduce confidence in that vaccine.

 

[DisneyCane]

Probably the reduced J&J shipments expected for the next two weeks. They have to reshuffle. How much Pfizer and Moderna have been delivered and what is the expected dates? I think we may be outrunning current supply

The booking window yesterday was Moderna only for M-F next week. Now it looks like it will open again Monday for Moderna Tu-F.

 

[havoc315]

The actual numbers:
FL deaths from 9/1 to current 22,655 or 105 per 100,000 people (67% of total deaths)
NY deaths from 9/1 to current 17,998 or 92 per 100,000 people (35% of total deaths)

If it were true that no other factors came into play except how “locked down“ each state was (which is far from true) this shows that since FL removed restrictions they have 13 more deaths per 100,000 people compared to NY or the FL population adjusted equivalent of 2,800 extra deaths.

This is a completely flawed analysis since there are so many other factors at play. The only true comparison would be to compare what would have happened in FL if the restrictions were not removed vs what actually happened. Since we don’t have a time machine we will never know. We do know that more cases mean more deaths and we also know less public interaction (especially without masks) means less spread. We have no way to quantify how many cases and/or deaths could have been avoided with more restrictions. Comparing to other states does not tell the whole story.

Well said. There are too many factors in play to compare states in different regions, with different population types, different seasonality, etc.
But for those that say "New York locked down and had the most deaths" -- Most of those deaths were triggered BEFORE the lockdowns ever began. NOBODY was locked down until mid-late March 2020, by which time Covid was already spreading like wildfire in NY (unknown at the time because we weren't testing yet).
Basically, "lockdowns" started getting lifted in varying degrees in different places starting in late April. And while it is difficult to truly make comparisons, the general trend is that since that time, states/localities with more mitigation have fared significantly better than states and regions with less mitigation.

Florida and New York are pretty close in population (around 20 million). Since June 1, 2020: Florida has reported about 31,500 deaths. New York, which was just starting to loosen their lockdown as of June 1, 2020: 21,000.
Now, not claiming the difference is solely due to mitigation restrictions.
But you'd find this difference holds pretty consistent when comparing mitigation vs less-mitigation regions. Compare Vermont to the Dakotas, for example.

 

[sullyinMT]

I did some spreadsheet today about the up to date death rate of covid by population. I got my info from google. Here is the result:
View attachment 547169
What I find interesting is that Florida has the least death rate by population at 34/2110=.11%, whereas California has .15%, despite being locked down. Montana, a remote state will large space and little population, and not locked down, and is considered a covid haven by some people, has a higher death rate than Florida. NY, which has locked down, has more than double the death rate of Florida. Sweden, the only country famous for not even encouraging masks or social distancing, has less death than Montana and California, though more than Florida. There can be a lot of reasons why all of this is the case, I just want to present the numbers here.

Source:

Google Search

or google "us coronavirus chart" and click different countries and states to see numbers.

I’ll give you our small towns, but Montana’s population centers are far from “COVID havens”. Until recently, with fatigue setting in like a lot of the country, our bigger cities were doing quite well with mitigation attempts. In fact, I live in our most populated county and we have infection rates similar to California as a state. Interestingly, it is our counties and cities where polls say things should be better based on voting records and who wants vaccines that are keeping our numbers up.

Final defense of Montana from a case fatality front: we are a very old state. In our 40’s, we’re the younger generation. Knowing who the virus targets most, death rates aren’t shocking, at all.

 

[GoofGoof]

Well said. There are too many factors in play to compare states in different regions, with different population types, different seasonality, etc.
But for those that say "New York locked down and had the most deaths" -- Most of those deaths were triggered BEFORE the lockdowns ever began. NOBODY was locked down until mid-late March 2020, by which time Covid was already spreading like wildfire in NY (unknown at the time because we weren't testing yet).
Basically, "lockdowns" started getting lifted in varying degrees in different places starting in late April. And while it is difficult to truly make comparisons, the general trend is that since that time, states/localities with more mitigation have fared significantly better than states and regions with less mitigation.

Florida and New York are pretty close in population (around 20 million). Since June 1, 2020: Florida has reported about 31,500 deaths. New York, which was just starting to loosen their lockdown as of June 1, 2020: 21,000.
Now, not claiming the difference is solely due to mitigation restrictions.
But you'd find this difference holds pretty consistent when comparing mitigation vs less-mitigation regions. Compare Vermont to the Dakotas, for example.

I agree that comparing states in different regions is not a great approach, but there’s a desire to do so from both sides when the stats support their narrative. The fact is we have no way of knowing how many deaths were avoided by Covid restrictions that were implemented and how many deaths could have been avoided if we did more. On the flip side we don’t know the full economic impact of Covid restrictions alone. If we did an initial wave of stay at home orders and everyone actually followed them for the appropriate amount of time maybe cases would have stayed lower and the economy would have actually recovered faster...see Hawaii or in an extreme example some other countries like New Zealand. It’s impossible to know what would have happened. For many years after the dust settles I think there will be all kinds of studies done to attempt to answer those questions, but it’s too soon to start yet.

 

[ParentsOf4]

The actual numbers:
FL deaths from 9/1 to current 22,655 or 105 per 100,000 people (67% of total deaths)
NY deaths from 9/1 to current 17,998 or 92 per 100,000 people (35% of total deaths)

If it were true that no other factors came into play except how “locked down“ each state was (which is far from true) this shows that since FL removed restrictions they have 13 more deaths per 100,000 people compared to NY or the FL population adjusted equivalent of 2,800 extra deaths.

This is a completely flawed analysis since there are so many other factors at play. The only true comparison would be to compare what would have happened in FL if the restrictions were not removed vs what actually happened. Since we don’t have a time machine we will never know. We do know that more cases mean more deaths and we also know less public interaction (especially without masks) means less spread. We have no way to quantify how many cases and/or deaths could have been avoided with more restrictions. Comparing to other states does not tell the whole story.

It's difficult to compare each state with each other as data can be massaged to tell all sorts of stories.

For example, when comparing death rates, CDC data overwhelmingly shows that age is the most significant factor:

While Florida has one of the oldest populations in the United States:

My view is that many state mandates were irrelevant. Instead, how strictly private businesses and stores (places where non-family members are most likely to gather indoors) enforced masks and social distancing is a significant factor that often gets ignored.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 46 new reported deaths, along with 4 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[GoofGoof]

It's difficult to compare each state with each other as data can be massaged to tell all sorts of stories.

For example, when comparing death rates, CDC data overwhelmingly shows that age is the most significant factor:

View attachment 547209

While Florida has one of the oldest populations in the United States:

View attachment 547208

Makes you wonder if perhaps the states with the oldest population should have had a higher level of restrictions due to the inherent risks presented to their population. It’s neither here nor there at this point, but an interesting idea.

 

[sullyinMT]

Makes you wonder if perhaps the states with the oldest population should have had a higher level of restrictions due to the inherent risks presented to their population. It’s neither here nor there at this point, but an interesting idea.

You’re not suggesting we protect the most vulnerable, are you?

 

[DisneyDebRob]

But Sweden has FAR more death than the other nordic countries. And really, the country that did the least in terms of lockdowns is Brazil... and the disease is raging out of control there.

Though you can't just look at which countries locked down and which didn't. There are seasonal issues, geographic issues, population density issues. With mitigation, there is compliance rates. A "lockdown" is meaningless without compliance. In many cases, "lock down" localities weren't that different than "open" localities. As the "open" localities still had lots of voluntary mitigation, while "lock down" still had lots of non-compliance. And of course, different states also record and report deaths differently. (Florida has been accused of undercounting, but I'll put that aside).

Beyond that... Your stats don't match other official sources... death rate in California is actually lower than Texas and Florida:
Texas at .17%, Florida at .158% and California at .152%

View attachment 547193


Now, getting to Sweden compared to other Nordic countries:
Sweden: .134%
Denmark: .042%
Finland: .015%
Norway: .013%

So compared to other countries within the region (and therefore sharing seasonality, likely sharing the same variants, cultural similarities): Sweden's death rate is triple the rate in Denmark and 10 times the rate of Norway.

Which is why Sweden's experiment was considered a failure and why they now have put in significant "lock down" restrictions. They learned their lesson.

But was touted here by many a year ago,April-may 2020 as the gold standard that the US should be following. Can you imagine.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[ParentsOf4]

Makes you wonder if perhaps the states with the oldest population should have had a higher level of restrictions due to the inherent risks presented to their population. It’s neither here nor there at this point, but an interesting idea.

Sorry, I added something to my last post that it seems you did not have a chance to read, so I'll add it here as well:

My view is that many state mandates were irrelevant. Instead, how strictly private businesses and retail stores (places where non-family members are most likely to gather indoors) enforced masks and social distancing is a significant factor that often gets ignored.

IMO, there was not a huge amount of variance from state-to-state because even in those states that eased up more quickly than others, most large private businesses and chain stores continued to require masks and social distancing.

So although governor 'X' had such-and-such rules and eased up on those rules at such-and-such rates, large businesses and major realtors mostly ignored what those governors were doing and kept in place the rules they were being advised to follow by their health experts.

 

[Incomudro]

Reading through the discussion as to whether it was wise to close down “with a sledgehammer” at the beginning of the pandemic I feel there is no correct answer! We will never know how many extra deaths or serious illnesses were prevented but equally we will never know if keeping outside activities open would have been beneficial or not had any significant impact on the number of deaths. The thing perhaps we should remember is that no one knew at that time and to a lesser extent now, which mitigation methods were/are most effective. I can only imagine the problems and angst of Governors (?) and advisors who had to make these life changing / life saving/ life costing decisions knowing that whichever way they go people will complain. Perhaps the fact that we are still discussing the rights/wrongs of their decisions a year down the line and are still divided means they got it just about right! However 559,000 deaths in the USA and still climbing probably proves they didn’t.

I agree with your post very much.
I can only imagine the damned if they did and damned if they didn't decisions that governors had to make.
One thing I will say however, is that the US did poorly with covid because our population is so unhealthy to begin with.

You’re not suggesting we protect the most vulnerable, are you?

They could protect themselves as well.
I was often shocked at the age and condition of some people out and about when covid was raging.
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