Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[CaptainAmerica]

Separately, for our Canadian friends, why is the vax rollout taking so long? Is it a supply issue, or are they bungling the delivery? The United States has administered 50 doses per 100 people while Canada is back at 17.

 

[sullyinMT]

I'm sorry, I just don't see the data on that. It sounds good, but the data don't support it. The tightness or looseness of mitigation measures in different states has not correlated to statistically significant differences in health outcomes.

While I admittedly don't live there and can't speak to the level of mitigation compliance, I look at Israel for the data to support my comment. Only recently have they started to pull back of recommended mitigations, and that's with 50%+ of the population vaccinated. Their hospital and death data are support for my statement that if we'd just hold on a little bit longer, we might get to where we want to be for a "normal" summer.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Sounds good in theory but you need the whole world to be on the same page for it to end. As long as variants keep spreading and people aren't vaccinated it's far from over.

Yeah but I'm worried the pandemic in USA will keep longer as forever if variants is problem now...

 

[Jrb1979]

Separately, for our Canadian friends, why is the vax rollout taking so long? Is it a supply issue, or are they bungling the delivery? The United States has administered 50 doses per 100 people while Canada is back at 17.

It's supply issue for a lot of it. Moderna and Pfizer have kept delaying the promised amount. We are finally getting caught up now. By the June, at least in Ontario, the majority of essential workers should be vaccinated. That includes, factory workers, grocery store workers and teachers.

 

[Mindy55]

Sounds good in theory but you need the whole world to be on the same page for it to end. As long as variants keep spreading and people aren't vaccinated it's far from over.

So that would be the next 100 years or more

 

[Jrb1979]

Yeah but I'm worried the pandemic in USA will keep longer as forever if variants is problem now...

Masks and social distancing is probably staying in some form in places for awhile yet. The pandemic isn't over til most countries have been vaccinated.

 

[Jrb1979]

So that would be the next 100 years or more

Maybe. By then we would have learned to live with it.

 

[havoc315]

The JnJ CEO said September. I doubt he would have said so if he didn’t think it was likely. They aren’t making money directly from the vaccines, so they want prestige and high stock prices. You lose both when you miss targets. See AstraZeneca.

But JNJ has already been slightly behind targets. I interpret his remarks at "September if everything goes right" -- Meaning the trial gets completed in the projected time frame, the results line up, it gets FDA approval..

As I said, I see September as possible but optimistic. I wouldn't be surprised to see September, but also wouldn't be surprised to see it slip by a month or two.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Masks and social distancing is probably staying in some form in places for awhile yet. The pandemic isn't over til most countries have been vaccinated.

I know but I'm worried that masks and social distancing may become forever for years......

 

[Patcheslee]

Ironically the first mass vaccination clinic in our county is Moderna at the high school. You'd think Pfizer would be a better option to get kids that are eligible. Other sites for J&J or Moderna have availability for today. Whereas the only Pfizer site is the health department first available it May 4th.

 

[Figgy1]

Did you happen to go to Walgreens? This happened to me too. 28 days with the Pfizer is still acceptable but Walgreens reservation system is a little funky in that it won't let you look to reschedule anything until you're already AT 21 days.

I just looked on CVS site and selected I only needed a second dose and was able to find a reservation at exactly 21 days.

It seems Walgreens was booking all 2nd shots at 28 days and not always at the same location https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/me...nd-2nd-pfizer-doses-4-weeks-apart/ar-BB1f63gv

 

[Jrb1979]

I know but I'm worried that masks and social distancing may become forever for years......

It won't be. By the end of the year things will be much better.

 

[Disney Analyst]

Separately, for our Canadian friends, why is the vax rollout taking so long? Is it a supply issue, or are they bungling the delivery? The United States has administered 50 doses per 100 people while Canada is back at 17.

It's supply issue for a lot of it. Moderna and Pfizer have kept delaying the promised amount. We are finally getting caught up now. By the June, at least in Ontario, the majority of essential workers should be vaccinated. That includes, factory workers, grocery store workers and teachers.

It’s also just the fact we have to rely on other countries. We don’t manufacture any of our own. And all our supply comes from Europe/India/abroad so we are sharing with all of them as well.

Have any doses manufactured in the US gone to other countries? (Other then the AstraZeneca recently sent out??)

 

[sullyinMT]

But JNJ has already been slightly behind targets. I interpret his remarks at "September if everything goes right" -- Meaning the trial gets completed in the projected time frame, the results line up, it gets FDA approval..

As I said, I see September as possible but optimistic. I wouldn't be surprised to see September, but also wouldn't be surprised to see it slip by a month or two.

Unless they choose a different endpoint to illustrate efficacy, I kind of hope they miss this target. That would mean there aren’t enough infections to go around quickly enough to get to a meaningful % effective, and that would be good news for all of us.

 

[GoofGoof]

The JnJ CEO said September. I doubt he would have said so if he didn’t think it was likely. They aren’t making money directly from the vaccines, so they want prestige and high stock prices. You lose both when you miss targets. See AstraZeneca.

Yeah, I think it happens around that time. The Pfizer trial for 12-15 was fully enrolled by end of Jan and results announced 2 months later. It depends on how long the phase 1/2 trial takes but Pfizer is actively enrolling already for the larger phase 3 trial. They need to get the trials going ASAP or they may end up with not enough infection in the placebo group. From what I understand the JnJ pediatric trial goes from 6 months to 17 years old, but they are still doing it in phases so the 12-17 results should be out sooner than 5-12 and so on down. The obvious goal is to get down to 5 so school aged kids are all approved before the start of the next school year. I think that could slip a few months but most of the next school year could be included if not all.

The media seems to like to grossly slow play anything to do with children’s vaccinations for Covid. For example, the Pfizer 12-15 trial results were fantastic. 100% efficacy and less adverse reactions than the 16-25 age group which is already approved. The CEO said they plan to apply for an amendment to the EUA in the coming weeks which I interpret as 1 to 2 weeks, yet most news stories still say they are hoping to have the approval in time for the start of the next school year. If full EUA took 3-4 weeks back in November from results released to authorization why would it take several months for an amendment based on great trial results and a proven successful vaccine? Seems to me like 12+ should be authorized for Pfizer vaccines some time in May. It’s 20M kids so even if only 15M want the vaccine it will take a few weeks to a month to get the first shots in then 3 weeks later for shot 2. There‘s no reason we don’t have all kids 12+ who want a vaccine done by the end of June.

 

[DisneyFan32]

Yeah, I think it happens around that time. The Pfizer trial for 12-15 was fully enrolled by end of Jan and results announced 2 months later. It depends on how long the phase 1/2 trial takes but Pfizer is actively enrolling already for the larger phase 3 trial. They need to get the trials going ASAP or they may end up with not enough infection in the placebo group. From what I understand the JnJ pediatric trial goes from 6 months to 17 years old, but they are still doing it in phases so the 12-17 results should be out sooner than 5-12 and so on down. The obvious goal is to get down to 5 so school aged kids are all approved before the start of the next school year. I think that could slip a few months but most of the next school year could be included if not all.

The media seems to like to grossly slow play anything to do with children’s vaccinations for Covid. For example, the Pfizer 12-15 trial results were fantastic. 100% efficacy and less adverse reactions than the 16-25 age group which is already approved. The CEO said they plan to apply for an amendment to the EUA in the coming weeks which I interpret as 1 to 2 weeks, yet most news stories still say they are hoping to have the approval in time for the start of the next school year. If full EUA took 3-4 weeks back in November from results released to authorization why would it take several months for an amendment based on great trial results and a proven successful vaccine? Seems to me like 12+ should be authorized for Pfizer vaccines some time in May. It’s 20M kids so even if only 15M want the vaccine it will take a few weeks to a month to get the first shots in then 3 weeks later for shot 2. There‘s no reason we don’t have all kids 12+ who want a vaccine done by the end of June.

So the pandemic may end in USA by end of the year this year, but the pandemic will continue other counties until most countries of the world is vaccinated. Is variants will won't be problem anymore soon if vaccines is more powerful than variants?

 

[Jrb1979]

So the pandemic may end in USA by end of the year this year, but the pandemic will continue other counties until most countries of the world is vaccinated. Is variants will won't be problem anymore soon if vaccines is more powerful than variants?

They will continue to be an issue as long as international travel is allowed. Just another reason for vaccine passports for airlines.

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

If you really want to see vaccination #s skyrocket, make an announcement that you can go to WDW maskless if you can show proof of vaccination.

 

[DisneyFan32]

They will continue to be an issue as long as international travel is allowed. Just another reason for vaccine passports for airlines.

What?! Is pandemic will continuing in USA until end of the year, what is does means for USA? Will restrictions like masks and social distancing will return or not?

 

[Disney Analyst]

So the pandemic may end in USA by end of the year this year, but the pandemic will continue other counties until most countries of the world is vaccinated. Is variants will won't be problem anymore soon if vaccines is more powerful than variants?

This is why I think the mindset of many Americans is foolish right now, but it’s also a very American mindset.

America and the UK are some of the only countries really far along in the vaccine program.

Until the majority of countries are vaccinated, there is a risk to all countries that remains. America doesn’t suddenly become safe or pandemic free once the majority of citizens are vaccinated.

The risk is wayyy lower, but it takes one variant from abroad with vaccine resistance to ruin it all.