oceanbreeze77
Well-Known Member
But at that point, everyone should be able to get it if the supply is there.
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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion
- Thread starter Parker in NYC
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- coronavirus covid covid-19
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DisneyDebRob
Well-Known Member
Exactly right. Global pandemic means the world basically needs to be on the same page as us or borders will be closed.. limited travel depending on what country your traveling to or coming from..etc. Let’s get as many vaccinations into our arms here, then start helping as much as possible around the world. It’s important for all of us.
Patcheslee
Well-Known Member
March 31st Indiana will open vaccinations to 16+ . April 6th statewide mask mandate will change to an advisory. Capacity limits will be removed statewide. Local officials and private entities may still have restrictions. K-12 will still require masks through the end of the school year.
danlb_2000
Premium Member
Even if all the supply is there, it will take time to get it into the arms of everyone who wants it. I think @GoofGoof did an estimate recently of when every who wants it could conceivably have it.
JoeCamel
Well-Known Member
Very hard to immigrate, they like it as is
GoofGoof
Premium Member
We have 36M doses that have been delivered but not used. At a daily average of 2.5M shots a day it would take about 2 weeks to use them all. That doesn’t mean they can all be used ASAP if they are second shots that need to be spaced 3 or 4 weeks. Another way to look at it is they expect to receive 27M doses next week so at 2.5M a day it would take 10 days to administer them all.
I need to update the actual numbers based on the more recent increase in vaccine supply and also the small delay with JnJ. If we actually hit the targets that existed as of the end of Feb for delivery and vaccinations we would have enough doses to fully vaccinate 200M people by the end of April. Since we don’t do both shots at once that equates roughly to 200M with at least 1 shot, 160M fully vaccinated and 40M doses in inventory waiting for people’s 2nd shots in May. That means roughly 80% of adults 18+ at least started or 60% of the total population. The 40M second shots would finish up in May. Even if that timeline slipped a full month back we’d still be done by the end of June at the latest. There are also 30M kids between 12 and 17 that could become eligible in April or May if the trials finish up. we should get enough doses in the first half of May to cover them as well.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
I'm sorry, but 'm not following you - what do you mean by 0.15% of the total? 0.15% of staff test positive in a 2-week period? LTC staff accounts for 0.15% of the positive infections in the state?
DisneyCane
Well-Known Member
0.15% of LTC staff is currently COVID positive. If you tested everybody in FL, you'd probably find around 1%.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
With 9 days to go in March it looks like we are trending towards having closer to 90M doses of Pfizer and Moderna combined deliveries for the month and 10M doses of JnJ. That’s 20M doses behind the original March 31 projections of the first 100M doses each from Pfizer and Moderna and 20M doses of JnJ. The good news is that at the current pace of deliveries for Moderna and Pfizer they would make up most or all of the 10M shortfall in April and still get to 300M doses delivered by May 1 with the next 100M in May. For JnJ they started shipping again after a short pause and with the added manufacturing capacity from Merck coming online and ramping up soon they have time to catch up. It’s possible they still deliver 50M doses by the end of April. That’s less clear at this time, but it will likely be 40-50M. On vaccinations we still have a pretty steady number of unused doses despite a continuous ramp up in deliveries which leads me to believe that demand is still high and there’s no shortage of capacity to vaccinate or unused inventory would be growing faster.
Here is the updated snapshot of where we are projected to land at the end of March and also at the end of April.
So we are on pace to have 30% of the total population and 40% of adults started by the end of this month. If deliveries and vaccinations keep pace by the end of April we could have almost 60% of the total population and 78% of adults at least started. If these projections hold up the vaccines will be available to the general public everywhere well before the May 1 deadline. Keep in mind it takes 6 weeks for Moderna, 5 weeks for Pfizer and 2 weeks for JnJ to get from started to the CDC’s definition of fully immune so in order for someone to be fully immune by July 4 they would have to start the Moderna vaccine by May 23, the Pfizer vaccine by May 30 and the JnJ vaccine by June 20. It seems very doable to have pretty close to 60% of the general population and 80% of adults fully immune by July 4th assuming we get that many people to actually go.
Your guess is as good as mine on when we see the impact of the vaccines and when we reach herd immunity. Israel right now is at 57% of the population with at least 1 shot and 50% fully vaccinated which is about where we can/should be by the end of April and their 7 day daily average of cases is now down 88% from their all time high back in January. Could be a pretty good sign of things to come if we all get vaccinated. Down 88% from our all time high would be below 30K cases a day for the US or below 10 cases a day per 100K people. I saw a quote where Fauci said he thought we needed to be under 10K cases a day before major Covid restrictions like masks and distancing could be fully relaxed. That seems like a real possibility by July 4th if we get enough people vaccinated fast enough.
Here is the updated snapshot of where we are projected to land at the end of March and also at the end of April.
So we are on pace to have 30% of the total population and 40% of adults started by the end of this month. If deliveries and vaccinations keep pace by the end of April we could have almost 60% of the total population and 78% of adults at least started. If these projections hold up the vaccines will be available to the general public everywhere well before the May 1 deadline. Keep in mind it takes 6 weeks for Moderna, 5 weeks for Pfizer and 2 weeks for JnJ to get from started to the CDC’s definition of fully immune so in order for someone to be fully immune by July 4 they would have to start the Moderna vaccine by May 23, the Pfizer vaccine by May 30 and the JnJ vaccine by June 20. It seems very doable to have pretty close to 60% of the general population and 80% of adults fully immune by July 4th assuming we get that many people to actually go.
Your guess is as good as mine on when we see the impact of the vaccines and when we reach herd immunity. Israel right now is at 57% of the population with at least 1 shot and 50% fully vaccinated which is about where we can/should be by the end of April and their 7 day daily average of cases is now down 88% from their all time high back in January. Could be a pretty good sign of things to come if we all get vaccinated. Down 88% from our all time high would be below 30K cases a day for the US or below 10 cases a day per 100K people. I saw a quote where Fauci said he thought we needed to be under 10K cases a day before major Covid restrictions like masks and distancing could be fully relaxed. That seems like a real possibility by July 4th if we get enough people vaccinated fast enough.
SamusAranX
Well-Known Member
That's racist of them
LittleBuford
Well-Known Member
Another success story to add to New Zealand:
www.theguardian.com
How Taiwan triumphed over Covid as the UK faltered
Taipei’s success shows how lives might have been saved had the UK government acted differently
www.theguardian.com
Sorry I missed posting yesterday's numbers. Anyway they weren't good and today's are worse. First on the good side NY is back to 30 cases per 100,000. Then there is Florida which is stuck at 21. Finally NJ is showing why we are the laughingstock of the USA. We are up to 47 cases per 100,000. That is 56.7% more cases than NY and 123.8% more cases than Florida. That is a disgrace. There is no excuse for our behavior.
Now, back to the country as a whole. Michigan also continues to increase it's numbers all the way up to a horrible 36 and RI at 35.
1 state in the 40's
3 states in the 30's
11 states in the 20's
26 states in the 10's
10 states in single digits
Nationwide there is now a 7 day average of 54,810 new cases or 16.6 cases per 100,000. WE NEED TO DO BETTER.
Now, back to the country as a whole. Michigan also continues to increase it's numbers all the way up to a horrible 36 and RI at 35.
1 state in the 40's
3 states in the 30's
11 states in the 20's
26 states in the 10's
10 states in single digits
Nationwide there is now a 7 day average of 54,810 new cases or 16.6 cases per 100,000. WE NEED TO DO BETTER.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Thanks for the summary, Goof.
Though Israel's peak was much worse than the USA's and they are only recently coming down to levels equivalent to where we are, what's encouraging to me is that they haven't leveled off yet. The decrease is still happening and in their rolling average of cases has dropped 50% in just the past week. They are now at 11 cases per day per 100k, so lets see if by the end of April that goes to 5 or 3 or even <1.
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ABQ
Well-Known Member
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
I certainly love pictures! For kicks, here is Israels data on cases vs. their vaccination percentage, as well as the USA's. I'm not sure what conclusions one can draw from this, but I find it interesting. The 2+ week plateau in Israel's cases is unexplained, as far as I know. Vaccines were going up steadily, there we no major holidays or gatherings that I know of.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
Exactly right. In theory they were worse off than us at the peak so we should be able to come down even faster, but I‘m way over simplifying things. There are so many factors outside of just vaccination that play a part. You highlight the key in that their cases are still dropping pretty strongly. They had a small plateau a few weeks back and are now continuing strongly down. That’s good to highlight since we’ve seen a recent flattening of our decline which some have speculated is the start of another wave or a halt to the decrease like Europe has seen, but it doesn’t have to be. Wear a mask, distance and get vaccinated and we can get back to normal in a few months.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
This is a really good graph to show the impact of vaccines. Pretty much says it all. We are on pace to be where Israel is today by the end of April.
The plateau is pretty interesting. I think it just highlights how complex the virus spread is. We can’t possibly understand all the micro level events that lead to that. Possibly several simultaneous superspreader events and just like we‘ve seen here the timing is often delayed by weeks or a month so you can’t just look at what happened at that time. With the vaccinations they also had a disproportionate number of elderly people done early (just like here) so if a series of super spreader events that attract younger people occurred that could drive a temporary spike (Spring break anyone?). The good news is the pause in decline was short lived which leads me to believe it was an isolated series of incidents and they continue downward (rather sharply recently). Good sign of things to come for us and remember to keep the faith, even if we see a pause or a temporary uptick that doesn’t mean the vaccines aren’t working, just give it time.
Kevin_W
Well-Known Member
Here's an article from yesterday that I didn't see: a new anti-viral drug for early treatment of Covid is beginning trials:
www.cnbc.com
Pfizer begins early stage clinical trial testing oral antiviral drug for Covid
The drug is part of a class of medicines called protease inhibitors and works by inhibiting an enzyme that the virus needs to replicate in human cells.
www.cnbc.com
danlb_2000
Premium Member
I would guess that we are not seeing the full impact of the vaccines yet since we have been primarily focus on high-risk individuals who are likely not the ones driving the bulk of the spread.
GoofGoof
Premium Member
For sure. We should be getting there soon though. At least 18 states are either open to the general public or have a date set in the next few weeks and of the states that aren’t open yet many have started essential worker groups that include younger people. We should hopefully see a big increase in under 65 vaccinations by the end of April. Cases dropping will lag vaccines since there’s always a time period between exposure and infection and even if someone gets their first shot today they aren’t immediately immune. My gut says that as long as there isn’t a problem with deliveries or a problem with vaccine resistance we should see a major impact on overall cases as soon as May. Deaths and even hospitalizations should continue downward as the elderly and high risk are finishing up.
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