Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Incomudro]

I know a lot of people don‘t trust the polls these days, but most polls have a national number well above 50%. The first major group eligible was people 65+ and they are just under 70% started already. I think that grows to at least 75-80% as vaccines become readily available and the attached poll has them at 85%. The 65+ group is likely to be more interested in the vaccine than younger adults so the average won’t be 85%.

Politics seems to be one of the key drivers still, but I’m not sure there’s a whole lot we can do about it at this point. One area I continue to harp on with vaccine resistance is the need for the government and experts to continue stressing how effective these vaccines are. In the attached poll 61% of the people who said they were not getting the vaccine listed a desire to know more about how well they work as a major factor for resistance. To me it’s a no brainer, the vaccines work great, but the growing surge of clickbait headlines and news stories about the vaccines being ineffective vs variants is not helping get those people off the fence. Instead of focusing on the positive impact from the millions vaccinated worldwide the media and some experts relish painting this doom and gloom scenario where variants potentially defeat the vaccine.

I think we will exceed 50% of adults but even if we got to 70% of adults per the poll attached, we still would need at least 12-17 year old kids approved as well at the and vaccinated at the same rate to approach 60% of the general population vaccinated. Is that enough? I’m hopeful yes, but we don’t know.

Growing Share of Americans Say They Plan To Get a COVID-19 Vaccine – or Already Have

77% think vaccinations will benefit the economy.

www.pewresearch.org

It's a shame that so much of the media would prefer to put in front of the public what stories sell - as in stories on variants, bad reactions etc., - than they do on stories that actually educate the people on how the vaccines work (explaining how mrna vaccines don't change your DNA for instance) and how effective they are.

 

[Tom P.]

It's a community problem. Either get the community to respond, or it doesn't get fixed. Win the race or don't. Convince everyone you know and get them to convince everyone they know to get vaccinated. Win the race.

We could open wide up today, drop every single restriction, all of them, just act like the virus doesn't exist at all. There would be millions of deaths, healthcare systems would collapse, and the economy in ruins. Since, really, we couldn't just drop everything and act like the virus doesn't exist. All those impacts would each cause their own uncontrolled impact on everything else as people adjusted on their own. Quadruple case counts, spread, and impact and it will not matter if businesses are "open", they'll stop having customers and employees anyway.

I get what you're saying. I really do. But here's the problem: We have to open society back up 100% at some point. No restrictions, no mitigations, full resumption of life. It is not optional. It is not open for discussion. It must happen. Our society cannot function as it is now for an indefinite period of time. It is not possible.

There are only two options at this point: (1) Do an effective job of convincing enough people to take the vaccine in a timely manner that we can open back up without serious negative consequences. Or (2) open back up anyway and let the chips fall where they may. No matter how much people here want it to be otherwise, there is no third option.

 

[pixie225]

It's so crazy how diverse peoples experience with the vaccine has been. I've watched family members and co-workers and friends struggle for weeks trying to get an appointments up here in New York. Then someone sent me a link to this nonprofit organization the searches canceled appointments and redistributes them to people needing them. Last Tuesday I messaged them at 8am, and by 11am I had a needle in my arm. I've seen so much wild behavior when it comes to getting appointments from nepotism to people purchasing their appointment. This roll out has been an absolute mess, and I sincerely hope it gets easier for all parties involved.

If anyone in NY is eligible and wants that nonprofit link, feel free to message me!

Wish I had had this info before! Just spent 3 hours trying to get appt. for 3 elderly neighbors. Finally got for all 3

 

[DisneyFan32]

@GoofGoof will doomsday scenario will come true or not? Is fourth wave is coming? Will masks and social distancing will be gone sooner than 2022?

 

[danlb_2000]

@GoofGoof will doomsday scenario will come true or not? Is fourth wave is coming? Will masks and social distancing will be gone sooner than 2022?

We don't know. We don't know. We don't know.

 

[Disney Experience]

Glad vaccine is addressing the primary problem of making people so sick, even killing many, and reducing the overload placed on our healthcare system. It seems we also need to look at a co-existing problem of transmission. Current mitigation efforts seem to be selected to reduce transmission. Transmission seems to be ramping up as the variants, relaxed mitigation, and impatience with compliance seem to be growing. Is there a realistic way to greatly reduce transmission of this virus? For the sake of all of us, not the least of which includes WDW, its CMS. and future vacations, much hope.

The vaccines are helping lower transmission. It is a very realistic way to achieve that.

Numerous studies suggest that the viral load and transmission of Covid-19 are low for those vaccinated.

Effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 is excellent especially for the MRNA vaccines (PFizer & Moderna) as shown in the Phase 3 trials.
And empirical results from Israel are showing that asymptomatic cases in the fully vaccinated is also greatly reduced.

Pfizer vaccine shows 94% effectiveness against asymptomatic transmission of COVID

Pfizer's vaccine is successful in preventing not only symptomatic COVID-19, but also asymptomatic disease according to new data, and effective against the UK variant.

abcnews.go.com

So the vaccines from the current data seem to be doing good at mitigating transmission (Through a vaccinated host). just need to get more people vaccinated.

Other mitigations (Masks, social distancing) help against transmission, but those fully vaccinated already have good mitigation (Except if a new vaccine evading mutation occurs).

The masks and distancing for the vaccinated is just to help those few vaccinated who would get it in spite of being vaccinated, and to lower the risk of a viral mutation getting a vaccinated host to breed in.

 

[danlb_2000]

And thats when the vaccine passport comes in...

No, because that is only talking about vaccine availability, not when everyone will actually be able to get it.

 

[DisneyFan32]

If these people are getting vaccinating faster then there will no more waves / spikes / surges aka fourth wave as they will against mutants too. As we will go back to normal sooner. The cases will may keep trending down. Vaccines may protecting people from COVID-19 longer.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

No one knows what's going to happen in the short term. But long term things will get back to normal. We could either have a surge like Europe and Brazil or a long plateau followed by a big drop like Israel.

 

[Disney Experience]

If that's true why are the trials not saying it? We've had way more than 6 months in many with trials. Sorry, I'm at 6 months and not being called for boosters yet. No sign of it either' and I specifically asked this morning. If it is only 6 months we'll never get out.

Yes I agree with your statement too. For example: I am at 6 months since fully vaccinated and just a few weeks ago donated blood, which was positive for covid antibodies according to OneBlood.org. So I expect that protection against the virus is still strong in me. I am only one of over 15,000 people in the Pfizer study, but I think those saying that the protection only lasts six months are speculating without data. If people vaccinated in the trial were getting covid a lot then they might have a point. But I have not heard of that occurring with the trial participants. Tomorrow the study will draw my blood as it is the six month appointment, I would be more surprised if it did not have covid antibodies, than if it does. Those in the studies (Phase 1/2/3) are the vanguard to know duration, and most of us are at or just a bit past six months since vaccination. Perhaps the original statement about it only lasting six months, was more in that the reported data from trials is only now sufficient to know it last at least six months.

 

[CosmicRays]

First shot of Pfizer this past Saturday. Headache and fever on Sunday and Monday. Today just a lingering headache which is annoying.

 

[Disney Experience]

I haven't been able to find his actual comments, but this might be another case of confusing "only lasts 6 months" with "lasts at least 6 months because that's as far as we looked". Also, it's possible the the vaccine immunity will last longer then natural immunity. I did find this one UK study that showed that people still have considerable antibodies after 6 months:

UK Biobank study shows that COVID-19 antibodies remain for at least 6 months

www.ukbiobank.ac.uk

Finally, this is talking about antibodies, which are only part of our immune response.

Ahh you beat me to it. (I just read your post after posting myself)

 

[GoofGoof]

I get what you're saying. I really do. But here's the problem: We have to open society back up 100% at some point. No restrictions, no mitigations, full resumption of life. It is not optional. It is not open for discussion. It must happen. Our society cannot function as it is now for an indefinite period of time. It is not possible.

There are only two options at this point: (1) Do an effective job of convincing enough people to take the vaccine in a timely manner that we can open back up without serious negative consequences. Or (2) open back up anyway and let the chips fall where they may. No matter how much people here want it to be otherwise, there is no third option.

We need to convince everyone that there is only an option 1. If enough people think that option 2 is on the table then they may decide to wait it out and not bother with the vaccine. That’s why you see so many caveats around “return to normal”. Nobody who has spent any time thinking about it really thinks we will continue this way indefinitely, but if the government just tells everyone that then it hurts the vaccine uptake. People should want to get vaccinated to protect themselves and their loved ones but short of that motivation if they think its the only way back to normal than they will do it anyway.

 

[mmascari]

I get what you're saying. I really do. But here's the problem: We have to open society back up 100% at some point. No restrictions, no mitigations, full resumption of life. It is not optional. It is not open for discussion. It must happen. Our society cannot function as it is now for an indefinite period of time. It is not possible.

There are only two options at this point: (1) Do an effective job of convincing enough people to take the vaccine in a timely manner that we can open back up without serious negative consequences. Or (2) open back up anyway and let the chips fall where they may. No matter how much people here want it to be otherwise, there is no third option.

Right now, it’s option 1 or bust.

Option 2 doesn’t get anything I think of as normal.

There’s all kinds of things that happen at some point if option 1 fails and we’re headed for option 2. None of them are nice and none of them look like the old normal.

Shots in arms, as many as possible, as fast as possible.

 

[Disney Experience]

Well New Zealand will likely not be open to foreign tourism in 2021. It is not surprising since they have almost no cases (ok they have 67 cases all but one from foreign travel) of Covid-19 and want it to stay that way,
They said it will open once they have their population vaccinated. But their 4,917,000 population has only vaccinated 500 fully vaccinated and 27,000 partially vaccinated. So a long way to go on their vaccination front.

I wonder how much their low vaccination rate is a lack of urgency because they are an island nation that seems to be doing good in detection, isolation, and contact tracing (Classical techniques when there is little to no community spread)
I am sure their tourist industry would like that vaccine rollout to occur faster.

COVID-19

About the Ministry of Health’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and our long-term management strategy.

www.health.govt.nz

new zealand population - Google Search

www.google.com

Vaccine Tracker: How many Kiwis have been vaccinated?

Track the progress of NZ's Covid-19 vaccination efforts compared with other countries.

www.nzherald.co.nz

 

[correcaminos]

Yes I agree with your statement too. For example: I am at 6 months since fully vaccinated and just a few weeks ago donated blood, which was positive for covid antibodies according to OneBlood.org. So I expect that protection against the virus is still strong in me. I am only one of over 15,000 people in the Pfizer study, but I think those saying that the protection only lasts six months are speculating without data. If people vaccinated in the trial were getting covid a lot then they might have a point. But I have not heard of that occurring with the trial participants. Tomorrow the study will draw my blood as it is the six month appointment, I would be more surprised if it did not have covid antibodies, than if it does. Those in the studies (Phase 1/2/3) are the vanguard to know duration, and most of us are at or just a bit past six months since vaccination. Perhaps the original statement about it only lasting six months, was more in that the reported data from trials is only now sufficient to know it last at least six months.

I got up waaaaay too early today and totally blanked on things too. I remember reading Moderna at least thought a year. I've read others who had blood draws nearly a year later with natural immunity. The 6 month thing I don't buy at all. Not to mention memory of like tcells and such. Could mean to be at least 6 months which I could see...

Tired now, going back to bed lol

 

[Lilofan]

Well New Zealand will likely not be open to foreign tourism in 2021. It is not surprising since they have almost no cases (ok they have 67 cases all but one from foreign travel) of Covid-19 and want it to stay that way,
They said it will open once they have their population vaccinated. But their 4,917,000 population has only vaccinated 500 fully vaccinated and 27,000 partially vaccinated. So a long way to go on their vaccination front.

I wonder how much their low vaccination rate is a lack of urgency because they are an island nation that seems to be doing good in detection, isolation, and contact tracing (Classical techniques when there is little to no community spread)
I am sure their tourist industry would like that vaccine rollout to occur faster.

COVID-19

About the Ministry of Health’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and our long-term management strategy.

www.health.govt.nz

new zealand population - Google Search

www.google.com

Vaccine Tracker: How many Kiwis have been vaccinated?

Track the progress of NZ's Covid-19 vaccination efforts compared with other countries.

www.nzherald.co.nz

New Zealand is simply amazing. In the summer of 2020 which is their winter I was watching New Zealand rugby on cable TV, the stadium in NZ was packed with screaming fans wearing no masks. For that entire country to have only 67 cases is incredible.

 

[HauntedMansionFLA]

Correct me if I am wrong, but, I think Fauci did say couple of weeks ago 60% might do it

It’s hard to keep up with what he says

 

[Incomudro]

Well New Zealand will likely not be open to foreign tourism in 2021. It is not surprising since they have almost no cases (ok they have 67 cases all but one from foreign travel) of Covid-19 and want it to stay that way,
They said it will open once they have their population vaccinated. But their 4,917,000 population has only vaccinated 500 fully vaccinated and 27,000 partially vaccinated. So a long way to go on their vaccination front.

I wonder how much their low vaccination rate is a lack of urgency because they are an island nation that seems to be doing good in detection, isolation, and contact tracing (Classical techniques when there is little to no community spread)
I am sure their tourist industry would like that vaccine rollout to occur faster.

COVID-19

About the Ministry of Health’s response to the COVID-19 pandemic and our long-term management strategy.

www.health.govt.nz

new zealand population - Google Search

www.google.com

Vaccine Tracker: How many Kiwis have been vaccinated?

Track the progress of NZ's Covid-19 vaccination efforts compared with other countries.

www.nzherald.co.nz

If I didn't have kids, I'd move to New Zealand - and the covid situation makes up only a small fraction of my reasons why.

 

[DisneyCane]

The vaccines are helping lower transmission. It is a very realistic way to achieve that.

Numerous studies suggest that the viral load and transmission of Covid-19 are low for those vaccinated.

Effectiveness against symptomatic Covid-19 is excellent especially for the MRNA vaccines (PFizer & Moderna) as shown in the Phase 3 trials.
And empirical results from Israel are showing that asymptomatic cases in the fully vaccinated is also greatly reduced.

Pfizer vaccine shows 94% effectiveness against asymptomatic transmission of COVID

Pfizer's vaccine is successful in preventing not only symptomatic COVID-19, but also asymptomatic disease according to new data, and effective against the UK variant.

abcnews.go.com

So the vaccines from the current data seem to be doing good at mitigating transmission (Through a vaccinated host). just need to get more people vaccinated.

Other mitigations (Masks, social distancing) help against transmission, but those fully vaccinated already have good mitigation (Except if a new vaccine evading mutation occurs).

The masks and distancing for the vaccinated is just to help those few vaccinated who would get it in spite of being vaccinated, and to lower the risk of a viral mutation getting a vaccinated host to breed in.

Looking at the FL long term care report, infections among staff (who get tested every two weeks and were all offered vaccination by 2/1) have leveled off at 0.15% of the total. LTC staff is likely to have the same vaccine uptake rate as the general population and is out and about in the general population when not at work.

This data point backs up the story above and indicates that (at least the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines) prevent a large percentage of infections and therefore make the fully vaccinated very unlikely to spread the virus. Additionally, fully vaccinated people appear to have a miniscule chance of any serious illness or death.

I will repeat what I have said before. Two weeks after all adults who wish to be vaccinated have had the ability to be fully vaccinated, all mitigation measures should be removed immediately. I do not care if 80% of the anti-vax nutjobs end up hospitalized with COVID. For the unfortunate few who can't be vaccinated due to medical reasons, you will have no choice but to take extreme precautions like wearing an N95 respirator at all times.

If a business thinks they will attract more customers by keeping mitigation measures in place, they can keep them in place but past 2021 "V-day," there should no longer be a single government mandated COVID prevention measure. No masks, no capacity restrictions, no distancing. Nothing.