Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[JAKECOTCenter]

White House announced increase in supply to 27 Million Doses(!!!!!!!)

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

And already, we are seeing early warning signs about effectiveness and efficacy against emerging variants. New study in Israel shows the Pfizer vaccine has significantly lower efficacy against the South African variant. (It's effectiveness against the SA variant is unknown... lab can show lower efficacy but it can still remain very effective. We don't know without more real world data).

Which is why it's important to get a big portion of the population vaccinated, to quash the virus BEFORE more dangerous variants emerge.

Do we normally flock to take medications that don't work?

I suspect this is actually a reason some folks would want to wait.

Or at least wait until the available vaccines have been reformulated to be effective against the new variants.

If a worker doesn't get paid sick days, gets vaccinated now, has a 1 day reaction, AND the vaccine isn't going to protect them against the new variations, can we understand why they'd want to wait? Ditto for anyone with only 14 days sick leave. If a worker with only 14 days of leave gets sick, or already had covid, or had to take care of sick relatives, they might be reluctant to take a sick day to get vaccinated now. not until maybe everyone in their family can all get vaccinated at the same time with a vaccine that is effective.

 

[hopemax]

I got my donut eligibility card.

The mass vax site was super easy. 1st guy handed out the safety info, 2nd verified we had an appointment for today, 3rd person checked us in, 4th person scanned our codes, gave us our cards and then gave us our shots. Appointment was for 11:45, which was the time we were already in the 15-min observation area, and we were on our way to lunch at Noon.

 

[havoc315]

Do we normally flock to take medications that don't work?

I suspect this is actually a reason some folks would want to wait.

Or at least wait until the available vaccines have been reformulated to be effective against the new variants.

That's crazy and illogical. The current vaccines do work... against the current known variants. You can't reformulate against something that doesn't exist yet.

That's like saying, "I refuse to buy a car now.... because there might be flying cars in 50 years"

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 41 new deaths reported.

 

[Bullseye1967]

Really seems that demand is unfortunately waning from the middle and higher aged groups. Younger ages will be even less demand overall. Will be interesting to see just where the percentage of population taking the vaccine plateaus.

Oddly enough it is still very hard to get appointments in the bigger counties. On the hand, if you are willing to drive 60 miles you can get a jab tomorrow.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

can someone explain what's happening in Europe??? Should we be worried!? I know we are still taking precautions but can the EU surge be largely attributed to lack of vaccines? Every time Europe surges, we follow, will we see that this time? Or will we finally break off the wave pattern given how many have been vaccinated so far?

 

[danlb_2000]

Do we normally flock to take medications that don't work?

I suspect this is actually a reason some folks would want to wait.

Or at least wait until the available vaccines have been reformulated to be effective against the new variants.

If a worker doesn't get paid sick days, gets vaccinated now, has a 1 day reaction, AND the vaccine isn't going to protect them against the new variations, can we understand why they'd want to wait? Ditto for anyone with only 14 days sick leave. If a worker with only 14 days of leave gets sick, or already had covid, or had to take care of sick relatives, they might be reluctant to take a sick day to get vaccinated now. not until maybe everyone in their family can all get vaccinated at the same time with a vaccine that is effective.

I get a flu shot every year and never think about whether it's going to protect me from the flu in the following year. You get the vaccine now to protect you from the current problem, and worry about the next one later. If to many people followed your line of reasoning we could end up with a never ending string of variants.

 

[Chip Chipperson]

Do we normally flock to take medications that don't work?

I suspect this is actually a reason some folks would want to wait.

Or at least wait until the available vaccines have been reformulated to be effective against the new variants.

If a worker doesn't get paid sick days, gets vaccinated now, has a 1 day reaction, AND the vaccine isn't going to protect them against the new variations, can we understand why they'd want to wait? Ditto for anyone with only 14 days sick leave. If a worker with only 14 days of leave gets sick, or already had covid, or had to take care of sick relatives, they might be reluctant to take a sick day to get vaccinated now. not until maybe everyone in their family can all get vaccinated at the same time with a vaccine that is effective.

Logically, it doesn't make sense to avoid the vaccine because you might need to take a day off of work without getting paid when getting COVID-19 without being vaccinated could lead to 2+ weeks of unpaid sick time. That's just cutting off your nose to spite your face.

 

[danlb_2000]

The Government Chief Scientific Adviser in the UK has just said at a press conference that it's believed that Covid antibodies for those that have had the virus last around 6 months, and at the moment the same is expected for the vaccines. Boosters will likely be needed in the Autumn/Winter months.

I haven't been able to find his actual comments, but this might be another case of confusing "only lasts 6 months" with "lasts at least 6 months because that's as far as we looked". Also, it's possible the the vaccine immunity will last longer then natural immunity. I did find this one UK study that showed that people still have considerable antibodies after 6 months:

UK Biobank study shows that COVID-19 antibodies remain for at least 6 months

www.ukbiobank.ac.uk

Finally, this is talking about antibodies, which are only part of our immune response.

 

[Heppenheimer]

can someone explain what's happening in Europe??? Should we be worried!? I know we are still taking precautions but can the EU surge be largely attributed to lack of vaccines? Every time Europe surges, we follow, will we see that this time? Or will we finally break off the wave pattern given how many have been vaccinated so far?

A couple of things:

1) COVID fatigue

2) More contagious variants

3) Waning natural immunity

4) Lower vaccination coverage than here.

5) More densely populated with a much higher reliance on public transportation.

6) Older average population.

#1, 2, 3 also apply to here, although for #2, the variants have more deeply penetrated than the US... so far. #4, 5, and 6 are unique to Europe.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

A couple of things:

1) COVID fatigue

2) More contagious variants

3) Waning natural immunity

4) Lower vaccination coverage than here.

5) More densely populated with a much higher reliance on public transportation.

6) Older average population.

#1, 2, 3 also apply to here, although for #2, the variants have more deeply penetrated than the US... so far. #4, 5, and 6 are unique to Europe.

I know theres talk of a potential forth wave here in the US, but is that fear for the unvaccinated?

 

[mmascari]

I don't mean to sound cruel and heartless, but at some point we just move forward and if someone doesn't get vaccinated, that's on them. The vaccines are extremely effective at preventing any symptoms at all, but they are basically 100% effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths. So once you are fully vaccinated, you are good to go. The only reason not to resume a fully normal life at that point is concern about protecting others. Which is a perfectly reasonable concern to have right now.

Except it doesn't work that way. The vaccine is not a super power that you can simply mingle in areas of high transmission with no worry.

Or if we give the virus enough fertile ground to mutate away from vaccine coverage?

Because this. This is the doomsday scenario. We need enough people vaccinated before this happens. Which would mean it never happens then. Screw up the roll out and never get to enough people, and this is almost guaranteed to happen. It's a race. One we can absolutely win.

That's a good question. I don't have the answer. Staying in "Covid restricted" mode as a society, though, is not the answer. It's not possible. We have to go on with life, Covid or not, at some point. And those who are fully vaccinated are not going to long tolerate being unable to live their normal lives because some people are too ignorant or stubborn to get the shot.

It's a community problem. Either get the community to respond, or it doesn't get fixed. Win the race or don't. Convince everyone you know and get them to convince everyone they know to get vaccinated. Win the race.

We could open wide up today, drop every single restriction, all of them, just act like the virus doesn't exist at all. There would be millions of deaths, healthcare systems would collapse, and the economy in ruins. Since, really, we couldn't just drop everything and act like the virus doesn't exist. All those impacts would each cause their own uncontrolled impact on everything else as people adjusted on their own. Quadruple case counts, spread, and impact and it will not matter if businesses are "open", they'll stop having customers and employees anyway.

Do we normally flock to take medications that don't work?

I suspect this is actually a reason some folks would want to wait.

Or at least wait until the available vaccines have been reformulated to be effective against the new variants.

Doesn't work that way. There's no vaccine for the thing that doesn't exist yet. Get the vaccine now, as soon as possible. They all currently work against all the variants out there. Win the race and we're unlikely to see a variant the vaccines don't work at all against. Reformulations will help to extend the time if a variant farther down the "less effective" scale emerges. But, if you try to wait for a reformulation to protect against a variant that doesn't exist yet that's so far down the scale that the vaccine isn't effective, we've lost the race and gone back to start.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I know theres talk of a potential forth wave here in the US, but is that fear for the unvaccinated?

Pretty much. With everything we know, some vaccinated people will get sick, but most likely not severely.

But as mentioned above, the doomsday scenario is that there's enough fertile ground for the virus to mutate beyond vaccine coverage. This is a realistic fear, but not a certainty. The best way to avoid it is to vaccinate as many as quickly as possible and keep up the mitigation efforts.

 

[GoofGoof]

Do we normally flock to take medications that don't work?

I suspect this is actually a reason some folks would want to wait.

Or at least wait until the available vaccines have been reformulated to be effective against the new variants.

If a worker doesn't get paid sick days, gets vaccinated now, has a 1 day reaction, AND the vaccine isn't going to protect them against the new variations, can we understand why they'd want to wait? Ditto for anyone with only 14 days sick leave. If a worker with only 14 days of leave gets sick, or already had covid, or had to take care of sick relatives, they might be reluctant to take a sick day to get vaccinated now. not until maybe everyone in their family can all get vaccinated at the same time with a vaccine that is effective.

This is absolutely happening and it’s absolutely a problem. We need a better effort towards ensuring people just how effective the vaccines are. We need a better PR campaign since the current one is beginning to weaken some compared to where we were in November when there was a strong and overwhelming positive spin on the vaccines being approved and the fantastic efficacy. Since then the focus has shifted more and more towards why they may not work as well. For someone who reads into the details and spends time absorbing the facts it’s easy to see why it still makes perfect sense to get vaccinated but not everyone is going to do that. When they turn on CNN and the headline on the ticker says vaccines may not work against new variant that‘s enough to sour them. It’s a shame but it’s true.

Logically, it doesn't make sense to avoid the vaccine because you might need to take a day off of work without getting paid when getting COVID-19 without being vaccinated could lead to 2+ weeks of unpaid sick time. That's just cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Half of the stuff I’ve seen happen related to Covid defies logic. I agree with you that it makes no sense but I’m getting the vaccine anyway. If it’s an issue for enough other people it’s an issue for all of us. I wish more states would focus on the huge advantage of the one and done JnJ vaccine for people in this situation.

 

[GoofGoof]

White House announced increase in supply to 27 Million Doses(!!!!!!!)

Good jump in production. I assume some of those will be JnJ as I think they are back online. Doing the math if we keep up that pace going forward that averages to 115M doses a month delivered. I think we may get a little higher as Pfizer and Moderna are supposed to ramp up to 50M doses each a month and JnJ at least 30M. Even without a further ramp up of Pfizer/Moderna we are on pace to have enough doses for every adult by the end of May and we all know not every adult will want one.

 

[oceanbreeze77]

Even without a further ramp up of Pfizer/Moderna we are on pace to have enough doses for every adult by the end of May and we all know not every adult will want one.

And thats when the vaccine passport comes in...

 

[Figgy1]

Logically, it doesn't make sense to avoid the vaccine because you might need to take a day off of work without getting paid when getting COVID-19 without being vaccinated could lead to 2+ weeks of unpaid sick time. That's just cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Could also lead to long term health issues or death not getting the shot as soon as you can

 

[mmascari]

Logically, it doesn't make sense to avoid the vaccine because you might need to take a day off of work without getting paid when getting COVID-19 without being vaccinated could lead to 2+ weeks of unpaid sick time. That's just cutting off your nose to spite your face.

Being poor sucks. It can also be incredibly expensive.

What's the story about only able to afford the cheap boots that wear out every year instead of the expensive boots that last for a decade and are cheaper over the full ten years.