Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

I would guess that we are not seeing the full impact of the vaccines yet since we have been primarily focus on high-risk individuals who are likely not the ones driving the bulk of the spread.

For sure. We should be getting there soon though. At least 18 states are either open to the general public or have a date set in the next few weeks and of the states that aren’t open yet many have started essential worker groups that include younger people. We should hopefully see a big increase in under 65 vaccinations by the end of April. Cases dropping will lag vaccines since there’s always a time period between exposure and infection and even if someone gets their first shot today they aren’t immediately immune. My gut says that as long as there isn’t a problem with deliveries or a problem with vaccine resistance we should see a major impact on overall cases as soon as May. Deaths and even hospitalizations should continue downward as the elderly and high risk are finishing up.

 

[ABQ]

For sure. We should be getting there soon though. At least 18 states are either open to the general public or have a date set in the next few weeks and of the states that aren’t open yet many have started essential worker groups that include younger people. We should hopefully see a big increase in under 65 vaccinations by the end of April. Cases dropping will lag vaccines since there’s always a time period between exposure and infection and even if someone gets their first shot today they aren’t immediately immune. My gut says that as long as there isn’t a problem with deliveries or a problem with vaccine resistance we should see a major impact on overall cases as soon as May. Deaths and even hospitalizations should continue downward as the elderly and high risk are finishing up.

For the US, yes, this is a piece that should be focused on a bit more with the majority of the roll out methodology used.

Love to see that drop below 1k per day soon, then even lower.

 

[danlb_2000]

For sure. We should be getting there soon though. At least 18 states are either open to the general public or have a date set in the next few weeks and of the states that aren’t open yet many have started essential worker groups that include younger people. We should hopefully see a big increase in under 65 vaccinations by the end of April. Cases dropping will lag vaccines since there’s always a time period between exposure and infection and even if someone gets their first shot today they aren’t immediately immune. My gut says that as long as there isn’t a problem with deliveries or a problem with vaccine resistance we should see a major impact on overall cases as soon as May. Deaths and even hospitalizations should continue downward as the elderly and high risk are finishing up.

I will be interesting to compare the case number graphs between those states and the others.

 

[Kevin_W]

I would guess that we are not seeing the full impact of the vaccines yet since we have been primarily focus on high-risk individuals who are likely not the ones driving the bulk of the spread.

Fro another comparison, here is the same graph, but with hopitalizations instead of cases. The plateau in Israel's data goes away, so perhaps that was some testing anomaly. The drop there hasn't been nearly as sharp as the case drop, which is the opposite of what I'd expect given the vaccine starting with the elderly (most likely to be hospitalized), though it is good that it is going down.

The US data drops off for the last week for some reason, but my state has been flat for a week or two.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

Since the 40 and below are the ones mainly spreading covid now, once they're vaccinated I'm sure cases will stop plateauing again

 

[Disney Experience]

Just got back from my 6 month post vaccination visit for the Pfizer trial. Had blood drawn. Got the CDC vaccine card.

I had to sign a few updated consent forms.

Asked about if I can get my individual blood test results. The research doctor said Pfizer has that data still blinded, so I cannot get it. But Pfizer will release the aggregated results of all subject tests soon. He said Quest Diagnostics may have a quantitative test if I want to track CD4 /CD8 or memory cells ( Not sure which they track), otherwise I can get it at end of study.

The site is currently doing Pfizer , Moderna, Novavax and two shot version of Johnson and Johnson. All are closed for new subjects except the J&J trial which is looking for minorities. None are blinded now because it would be unethical given the effective vaccines are already being deployed.

 

[MisterPenguin]

I certainly love pictures! For kicks, here is Israels data on cases vs. their vaccination percentage, as well as the USA's. I'm not sure what conclusions one can draw from this, but I find it interesting. The 2+ week plateau in Israel's cases is unexplained, as far as I know.

Israel and the U.S. both have a significant portion of their population that doesn't want to get vaccinated and doesn't want to take pandemic precautions. Their data is baked into the spikes making the spikes higher. When you remove the vaccinated and the protocol-followers, they remain as a stubborn plateau in which the disease continues to spread unchecked.

 

[correcaminos]

Just got back from my 6 month post vaccination visit for the Pfizer trial. Had blood drawn. Got the CDC vaccine card.

had to sign a few updated consent forms.
Asked about if I can get my individual blood test results. The research doctor said Pfizer has that data still blinded. But will release the aggregate of all subjects test will be reported soon. He said Quest Diagnostics may have a quantitative test if I want to track CD4 /CD8 or memory cells ( Not sure which they travk), otherwise I can get it at end of study.

The site is currently doing Pfizer , Moderna, Novavax and two shot Johnson and Johnson. All are closed for new subjecrs except the J&J trial is looking for minorities. None are blinded now because it would be unerhical given the effective vaccines already being deployed.

I'm jelly of your card. Not sure why my place was behind on that.

 

[GoofGoof]

Israel and the U.S. both have a significant portion of their population that doesn't want to get vaccinated and doesn't want to take pandemic precautions. Their data is baked into the spikes making the spikes higher. When you remove the vaccinated and the protocol-followers, they remain as a stubborn plateau in which the disease continues to spread unchecked.

Israel doesn‘t show a plateau right now. It’s straight downward. They had a small 2 week flattening of the curve but it’s been continuing downward ever since. I don’t think we can conclude that there will be a stubborn plateau yet. It’s possible, but we‘ve known from day 1 that not everyone will get the vaccine and the expectation has always been that despite that we could still reach herd immunity. That’s the whole ballgame.

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 30 new reported deaths, along with 1 Non-Florida Resident death.

 

[Slpy3270]

The CDC better have a good reason as to why they extended this order otherwise Disney may have to dump the cruise business entirely or lay off everyone. There's no way the industry can survive a full year shutdown unless the government natuonalizes it fully.

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[sullyinMT]

The biggest issue with cruising isn’t whether or not they’re sailing. I personally don’t think it’s time yet out of the US, and I love cruising. All indications are that we’re heading in the right direction (though in a plateau or start of a wave now), and the CDC is simply not giving any guidance to move forward. If sailing is to happen in July or August (should be able to by then), the industry needs to be able to move forward with plans as the situation exists now. If it improves, the lines can adjust. If the situation gets worse, God help us all whether we want to sail or not.

 

[Bob Harlem]

The biggest issue with cruising isn’t whether or not they’re sailing. I personally don’t think it’s time yet out of the US, and I love cruising. All indications are that we’re heading in the right direction (though in a plateau or start of a wave now), and the CDC is simply not giving any guidance to move forward. If sailing is to happen in July or August (should be able to by then), the industry needs to be able to move forward with plans as the situation exists now. If it improves, the lines can adjust. If the situation gets worse, God help us all whether we want to sail or not.

You can book cruises for June out of the Bahamas/Bermuda right now that will likely go forward as they require all adults to be vaccinated. A few of the lines are giving them a middle finger and going ahead anyway with those types of "just outside the US" type ports, and I really don't blame them. (see https://www.royalcaribbean.com/cruises/?departureCode_NAS=true for an example)

 

[MaryJaneP]

WDW has tried to use mitigation efforts. There are messages asking what we are going to do post-covid, as if it is ever gonna be post-covid (post-pandemic, yes...post-covid, probably not). It is helpful to know what impatience led to in the prior pandemic. This article shows what effect premature relaxation of mitigation efforts had on their third and even fourth waves.

Americans have tired of wearing masks and social distancing before; here's what happened next

Pandemic life quickly got old in 1918, too.

www.marketwatch.com

Will the same be our course? Stay classy.

 

[sullyinMT]

You can book cruises for June out of the Bahamas/Bermuda right now that will likely go forward. A few of the lines are giving them a middle finger and going ahead anyway, and I really don't blame them. (see https://www.royalcaribbean.com/cruises/?departureCode_NAS=true for an example)

Right. We all know that isn’t going to become the feasible model going forward. The amount of ships going out of the US can’t be supported by homeporting in Caribbean islands, let alone the logistics of getting to and from ports. The infrastructure of air travel would need to have been updated a decade ago.

Demand for those limited cruises will be excellent for a bit based on supply and demand. It’s a bandaid for a crummy situation. I don’t think it carries on for even 3 years beyond a few “boutique” sailings or ships. We have the disadvantage of not seeing how this ends, but I can’t imagine a situation where the CSO and other travel restrictions extend past 11/1 without another massive spike. Every major line, and Disney, have stated they can weather the storm for at least that long.

 

[GimpYancIent]

WDW has tried to use mitigation efforts. There are messages asking what we are going to do post-covid, as if it is ever gonna be post-covid (post-pandemic, yes...post-covid, probably not). It is helpful to know what impatience led to in the prior pandemic. This article shows what effect premature relaxation of mitigation efforts had on their third and even fourth waves.

Americans have tired of wearing masks and social distancing before; here's what happened next

Pandemic life quickly got old in 1918, too.

www.marketwatch.com

Will the same be our course? Stay classy.

I do not see things returning to the established way of being pre-2020. Those days are now part of the fossil record. I do see mitigation efforts, rules, regulations and policies walked back to a level where the vast majority of people will be comfortable. Where the public becomes accepting, active and functional is yet to be seen, at least things are moving in the right direction.

 

[dolbyman]

CRUISES SHOULD BE ALLOWED WITH STRICT RESTRICTIONS.

Maybe they want to avoid 2 week swimming petri dishes for emerging mutations?

But I also think they should allow it with given restriction as a perfect Litmus test for a "new normal"

 

[sullyinMT]

Settled. No foreign cruise vessels stopping at U.S. ports! Cruise American! That is when Joe says its OK.

No, the borders are open .

The foreign vessel part of it is a fair point. IIRC, the CSO mentions that undue disease burden is to be placed on the vessels' flagged nations. Perhaps we haven't heard of it, but there are protestations from Panama and the like for allowing these ships to sail. Our CDC is just easier to make a scapegoat since they're bigger and wield more influence over us as Americans. Members of the WH staff have hinted at a May easing of international travel restrictions if we continue current trends (past 7-10 days aside). If the rest of March and April are what they could be by means of vaccinating Americans, perhaps we get more solid answers for how/when US cruise ports will open then. If we mirror Israel's viral trajectory, it will be hard to argue against at least allowing the lines to try and prove themselves the way they have in Europe and Asia.

Also, if these summer sailings out of Bermuda and the Bahamas are a success from a disease standpoint, US ports will become very vocal. I'd imagine even in NJ for the Bermuda sailings from Bayonne. Even Chapek was a little more vocal on cruises during his recent interview. It sucks to not sail right now, but of all the things I've been willing to do during this pandemic being stuck in international waters isn't on my list. We'll get there.


-Also, I was team test sailing during our trough in cases last summer. I doubted getting a vaccine so quickly. That was the wrong approach as cases exploded later in the year. Now that vaccines are here, a little more patience and maybe another debt raising from the major lines is the better option for all involved.

 

[Chi84]

Doesn’t it say small family gatherings??? Not cruise ship size gatherings.

COVID-19 Vaccination

COVID-19 vaccines protect against COVID-19. Get safety info and more.

www.cdc.gov

The CDC says fully vaccinated people can gather indoors with other fully vaccinated people without wearing a mask, but later recommends avoiding medium or large gatherings. It also says vaccinated people can gather with low-risk unvaccinated people from one other household.