Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[sullyinMT]

I’m still concerned we won’t get 50% vaccinated. Then what. How do we move forward

I think we’ll get to 50% with current demand as ease of appointment becomes a reality. @helenabear and others are right, the tech burden is very real for some folks who really want a shot. While my county joint health task force is doing a good job, you should hear the phone message if you call for an appointment. It’s enough to get people to give up and wait for their local pharmacy chain to have a bigger allocation.

That said, I am right there with you once we get above maybe 55-60%. Each 5% increase after that might become hard to come by.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I don't mean to sound cruel and heartless, but at some point we just move forward and if someone doesn't get vaccinated, that's on them. The vaccines are extremely effective at preventing any symptoms at all, but they are basically 100% effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths. So once you are fully vaccinated, you are good to go. The only reason not to resume a fully normal life at that point is concern about protecting others. Which is a perfectly reasonable concern to have right now.

But, as far as I am concerned, once vaccines are available to anyone who wants them, and you've given them a reasonable amount of time to get them, then you go back to normal and anyone who chooses not to be vaccinated is accepting the consequences. We can debate about whether you lift restrictions now or in the summer or in the fall, but no one thinks that society can go on like this indefinitely. At some point, you educate people as much as you can, you try to get people to make the correct decision, and then you go on with life.

FWIW, though, I'm not worried about crossing the 50% threshold that you mention. I think we'll get there at least without issue.

We should easily reach 50%, but other than symbolism, that number doesn't mean much. It will really mean something towards ending this if we can get into the high 70s and 80% range.

I know we can't safely extrapolate from a limited age sample in a fairly small, homogenous state... but at least these numbers from Vermont give me hope. We hit 86% of seniors 70 and older with at least one dose, and the next group, 65-69, is closing in fast at 66% as of today. If we achieve something even remotely like these numbers eventually on a national scale, and the variants remains susceptible... we're there at the promised land.

 

[danlb_2000]

I don't mean to sound cruel and heartless, but at some point we just move forward and if someone doesn't get vaccinated, that's on them. The vaccines are extremely effective at preventing any symptoms at all, but they are basically 100% effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths. So once you are fully vaccinated, you are good to go. The only reason not to resume a fully normal life at that point is concern about protecting others. Which is a perfectly reasonable concern to have right now.

But, as far as I am concerned, once vaccines are available to anyone who wants them, and you've given them a reasonable amount of time to get them, then you go back to normal and anyone who chooses not to be vaccinated is accepting the consequences. We can debate about whether you lift restrictions now or in the summer or in the fall, but no one thinks that society can go on like this indefinitely. At some point, you educate people as much as you can, you try to get people to make the correct decision, and then you go on with life.

FWIW, though, I'm not worried about crossing the 50% threshold that you mention. I think we'll get there at least without issue.

And what happens in this scenario if ICU's start getting overwhelmed again?

 

[Heppenheimer]

And what happens in this scenario if ICU's start getting overwhelmed again?

Or if we give the virus enough fertile ground to mutate away from vaccine coverage?

 

[GhostHost1000]

And what happens in this scenario if ICU's start getting overwhelmed again?

Then those who didn’t get vaccinated are the ones getting and spreading it I would assume and the ones that were vaccinated shouldn’t have to adhere to the same rules or places like Disney stay half normal because of those that won’t ever get a vaccine. That is what I am most concerned about. Where is that line gonna be drawn because at some point we have to get back to normal even with covid still out there

 

[MaryJaneP]

Glad vaccine is addressing the primary problem of making people so sick, even killing many, and reducing the overload placed on our healthcare system. It seems we also need to look at a co-existing problem of transmission. Current mitigation efforts seem to be selected to reduce transmission. Transmission seems to be ramping up as the variants, relaxed mitigation, and impatience with compliance seem to be growing. Is there a realistic way to greatly reduce transmission of this virus? For the sake of all of us, not the least of which includes WDW, its CMS. and future vacations, much hope.

 

[Tom P.]

And what happens in this scenario if ICU's start getting overwhelmed again?

That's a good question. I don't have the answer. Staying in "Covid restricted" mode as a society, though, is not the answer. It's not possible. We have to go on with life, Covid or not, at some point. And those who are fully vaccinated are not going to long tolerate being unable to live their normal lives because some people are too ignorant or stubborn to get the shot.

 

[Horizons '83]

Word is Georgia will allow anyone age 16 and up to get the vaccine starting April 1. Hope that news is true.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

One donut doesn't make you fat.

It is one donut per day, for all of 2021.

...and in reality, people don't just walk away with their one free donut. It is called emotional advertising. An overwhelming majority of customers feel guilty walking away with a free item, so they buy more. Often MORE than they would have otherwise bought!

Krispy Kreme has long used emotional appeal to sell donuts, via group sales. If you've never been hit up by a kids' group to buy donuts, consider yourself lucky. Instead of just handing $10 to their own child, parents buy $50 worth of donuts.

While you are technically correct, in my experience, glazed donuts are a bit like potato chips. People don't eat just ONE glazed donut.

I speak from experience: I worked at a donut shop.

In addition to coffee and donuts, the shop also sold scratch off lottery tickets, and restaurant smoking was still legal. It was a life lesson in addictive habits.

Offering a donut every day for the rest of 2021 = the chain wants folks to develop a donut habit.

 

[havoc315]

I’m still concerned we won’t get 50% vaccinated. Then what. How do we move forward

I'm confident we will break 50%. We are over 25% now... with fewer than 50% of Americans eligible, and still lots of demand.
I don't know where the fall-off will be... I can imagine it being as low as 60%.. as high as 75%..

 

[GoofGoof]

I’m still concerned we won’t get 50% vaccinated. Then what. How do we move forward

I know a lot of people don‘t trust the polls these days, but most polls have a national number well above 50%. The first major group eligible was people 65+ and they are just under 70% started already. I think that grows to at least 75-80% as vaccines become readily available and the attached poll has them at 85%. The 65+ group is likely to be more interested in the vaccine than younger adults so the average won’t be 85%.

Politics seems to be one of the key drivers still, but I’m not sure there’s a whole lot we can do about it at this point. One area I continue to harp on with vaccine resistance is the need for the government and experts to continue stressing how effective these vaccines are. In the attached poll 61% of the people who said they were not getting the vaccine listed a desire to know more about how well they work as a major factor for resistance. To me it’s a no brainer, the vaccines work great, but the growing surge of clickbait headlines and news stories about the vaccines being ineffective vs variants is not helping get those people off the fence. Instead of focusing on the positive impact from the millions vaccinated worldwide the media and some experts relish painting this doom and gloom scenario where variants potentially defeat the vaccine.

I think we will exceed 50% of adults but even if we got to 70% of adults per the poll attached, we still would need at least 12-17 year old kids approved as well at the and vaccinated at the same rate to approach 60% of the general population vaccinated. Is that enough? I’m hopeful yes, but we don’t know.

Growing Share of Americans Say They Plan To Get a COVID-19 Vaccine – or Already Have

77% think vaccinations will benefit the economy.

www.pewresearch.org

 

[James J]

The Government Chief Scientific Adviser in the UK has just said at a press conference that it's believed that Covid antibodies for those that have had the virus last around 6 months, and at the moment the same is expected for the vaccines. Boosters will likely be needed in the Autumn/Winter months.

 

[MaryJaneP]

Would it help the vaccination rate that in addition to offering vaccination card holders a free donut, being eligible to vote would also accept a vaccination card as one of the proofs of identification? Seems like that would partially address the ID issue being such a touch point for many. This raises the question of how those without ID are supposed to get the vaccine.

 

[iowamomof4]

The storage requirements for Pzifer-BIONTECH and Moderna will probably mean that most physician's offices won't be offering the vaccines, however.

They updated the storage guidelines for Pfizer so that it (along with Moderna) can be stored at regular pharmacy freezer temps for a short period of time. I believe it's the same temp as the varicella vaccine (chicken pox) and a few others, so there should be plenty of places that can store it.

Pfizer-BioNTech Vaccine Doesn’t Need Ultra Cold Storage

Pfizer-BioNTech received the okay from US government authorities to store its vaccine at regular freezer temperatures

time.com

 

[havoc315]

I don't mean to sound cruel and heartless, but at some point we just move forward and if someone doesn't get vaccinated, that's on them.

No, it's on all of us. That's the problem -- If there is large uncontrolled spread, it's just a matter of time before it ends up being highly dangerous to even many of those that are vaccinated. That's why it's not just important to vaccinate -- but also to vaccinate quickly. The longer there is uncontrolled spread, the more potential for it to become more and more dangerous.

The vaccines are extremely effective at preventing any symptoms at all, but they are basically 100% effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths.

That's an over-simplification. For example, AZ got into a bit of trouble for their misleading reporting. They blasted yesterday how the US study shows that their vaccine was 100% effective at preventing hospitalizations and deaths!
Because in their controlled studied, 0 of the vaccinate people died! That's great! But guess how many of their placebo recipients died? Also 0.
So the placebo was also 100% effective at preventing death!! Or.... it's just too small a sample, over too short a time period, to really have any idea.

The difference in hospitalizations -- Placebo-- 5 hospitalizations. Vaccine -- 0.

Let's put it this way, if I tossed a coin... and got 5 heads in a row. Would that be enough to make you confident that the next 100 tosses are all going to be heads?

The limited studies tell us about efficacy. Real world use is needed to study effectiveness.

And already, we are seeing early warning signs about effectiveness and efficacy against emerging variants. New study in Israel shows the Pfizer vaccine has significantly lower efficacy against the South African variant. (It's effectiveness against the SA variant is unknown... lab can show lower efficacy but it can still remain very effective. We don't know without more real world data).

COVID-19 Vaccines

Vaccines are seen as one of the best ways to stop COVID-19. Learn more about the types of vaccines, including the newly approved Novavax.

www.webmd.com

So far -- breakthrough infections appear mild and rare. But more uncontrolled spread you get, the more mutation you get.... You eventually get variants that evade the vaccines.

Which is why it's important to get a big portion of the population vaccinated, to quash the virus BEFORE more dangerous variants emerge.

 

[GoofGoof]

Then those who didn’t get vaccinated are the ones getting and spreading it I would assume and the ones that were vaccinated shouldn’t have to adhere to the same rules or places like Disney stay half normal because of those that won’t ever get a vaccine. That is what I am most concerned about. Where is that line gonna be drawn because at some point we have to get back to normal even with covid still out there

Plan A is vaccinate enough people so that we don’t need to draw a line. Vaccine or bust. Obviously there’s a chance that doesn’t work in which case we are left with a broken economy, uneven mitigation across states and potentially a sincere push to implement things like vaccine passports. I think most people will go back to some of their normal tasks as they will either be vaccinated and feel safer or they aren’t vaccinated and aren’t afraid of a virus. There will be people in that scenario that won’t do some activities and as a result businesses and the economy will suffer.

The worst thing that could happen to WDW is the vaccine rollout fails and we are left in this limbo area where they either keep restrictions to appeal to people who want to feel safe or they remove restrictions to appeal to the other crowd. Either way you lose a chunk of business. Since WDW has children and families as a core part of their target demographic I see them being more conservative than a lot of other businesses in removing mitigations if cases are still raging since kids won’t be approved for the vaccine any time soon. Spring 2022 would be their “return to normal“ since kids will be vaccinated by then. My hope is enough adults take the jab and we see cases drop enough by early Summer to start seeing relaxing of restrictions. Either way we eventually go back to full normal, just one way takes about 12 months longer.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

My thoughts exactly. If states are finding that they have enough open appointments to open up eligibility to everyone.... when under 25% of their population is vaccinated, to me that sounds like a waning demand issue.
Hopefully greater public education will push up demand.

There's a great deal of confusion right now, and getting an appointment is a still a big headache. The vaccine roll out is an abomination, because the rules are too complicated.

I have to wonder if public messaging were consulted anywhere? Connecticut is an exception. Their page for eligibility is clear. Since medieval times, businesses have known simple images work best. Not only does the page tell you who is eligible, it also very simply says when the next group will be eligible. Most states' pages don't have that info.

Now look at North Dakota's vaccine page. It is a disaster: tiny print. (Though CT still hasn't added a way to sign up to be notified.) Oh my gosh! ND has a category titled, "Workers enabling access to human food, not including restaurant workers."

Another one says - word for word - "Persons 16-64 with one or more high-risk medical condition" Then you have to click on another link- further down the page and in tiny print - to figure out which medical conditions are supposedly covered, but the link takes you to the CDC webpage. The CDC page has two categories "are at increased risk" and "might be at an increased risk." But the ND webpage doesn't clarify which medical conditions the state considers eligible. Is it the CDC's "are" list, of the CDC's 'might be high risk' lists? (Personally, the linked CDC webpage is also something of a visual abomination. )

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

A number of states have some intimidating legalese on their sign-up:

"Any information requested may be disclosed to the California State Auditor, the California Office of Health Information Integrity, the California Office of Information Security, or to other state and federal agencies as required by law. You have the right to review the records CDPH maintains about you during normal business hours. The CDPH Privacy Officer will, upon request, inform you regarding the location of your records and the categories of any persons who use the information in those records. For more information, contact the CDPH Privacy Office."

I could easily see where many folks might find that wording a bit intimidating.

 

[correcaminos]

The Government Chief Scientific Adviser in the UK has just said at a press conference that it's believed that Covid antibodies for those that have had the virus last around 6 months, and at the moment the same is expected for the vaccines. Boosters will likely be needed in the Autumn/Winter months.

If that's true why are the trials not saying it? We've had way more than 6 months in many with trials. Sorry, I'm at 6 months and not being called for boosters yet. No sign of it either' and I specifically asked this morning. If it is only 6 months we'll never get out.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

And what exactly constitutes, "moderate to severe" asthma?

The CDC's list also says, "neurologic conditions, such as dementia" are high risk, but there are many neurological disorders. The CDC's wording is extremely vague. They include: Spinal cord injury, ALS, Ataxia, Epilepsy, Seizures, Brain tumors, Headache, Head Injury, Herniated disc, MS, and stroke.

Does that mean anyone who has ever had a seizure, head injury, or headache is eligible?

Again, this = TERRIBLY confusing public messaging.