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Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

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Sirwalterraleigh

Sirwalterraleigh

Premium Member
DisneyCane said:
Does anybody have a scientific explanation of why artificial immunity via vaccination may last longer than natural immunity via infection with the real virus?
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No science...but I’m guessing the vaccine is DESIGNED to carry on in your system to prolong the immunity.

Viruses are designed to infect, replicate, jump, replicate and come back again if you let them.

But I’m no scientist (not that kind, at least)
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
hopemax said:
But it's the same problem. The speculation about the existing variants is that they arise because it percolates in 1 body for an extended period of time. So we infect the whole world on April 1st. Most people get sick and recover, but there is one immunocompromised dude who is still sick in June. The doctors keep trying to make him better, plus treat whatever the other illness is and then the virus Borgs itself. Then in July, the dude's family comes to visit because it's been so long, and it's someone's birthday and they can't bear not to see him anymore. They get sick from the laugh in your face variant, and then bam! Whole world at risk again.
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I agree it could happen as you say. But it is a probability game. I would never, other than in jest, suggest intentionally infecting the non-vaccinated with covid. I think that would increase the chances of a mutation before the virus is eliminated or reduced.

We can instead hope the R factor is low enough even with the residual unvaccinated that it dies out (i.e. herd immunity). As it starts to die out lets hope we do not get mutations that are selected through evolutionary pressure that evade the vaccines. If they do then we will have another round of vaccinations (and hopefully limit in the meantime the spread of the new mutation so that they have less chance to mutate once again outside the revised vaccine).
 
Kevin_W

Kevin_W

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
With backfill, 3 days last week exceeded 100k first doses. I expect this week will be all 5 weekdays at that level after backfill. By the end of March with J&J single shot thrown in we should start to see over 100k competed series per day except on the weekend.

Hopefully increasing supply doubles the first shot rate in a few weeks.
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Yeah, hope the rate increases. My state has largely plateaued in cases the past 2-3 weeks and hospitalizations have been flat for a 233 after continued steady drops. That's in spite of 19% of the state first the 1st shot and 10% with both. I hope vaccinations pick up and cases start going down again.

Florida has similarly had a very slow decrease in cases. Hope theirs declines with all the vaccinations as well.
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
Sirwalterraleigh said:
No science...but I’m guessing the vaccine is DESIGNED to carry on in your system to prolong the immunity.

Viruses are designed to infect, replicate, jump, replicate and come back again if you let them.

But I’m no scientist (not that kind, at least)
Click to expand...
The vaccines (MRNA) do not carry on since they are non-replicating.

The J&J and the Oxford vaccine use a crippled cold virus and we should hope they do not survive/replicate in the body for too long due to the immune system response.

The Chinese vaccine are classic vaccines using a weaken/inactive virus(the one that causes covid) .
 
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D

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
havoc315 said:
There are other problems with natural infection, most notably variant mutation.

The more natural infection you have, the more opportunity for mutation and variants... some of which may evade vaccines.

And between variants + natural immunity just wearing off... good chance that natural infection to Wuhan strain in December 2020 won’t be protecting you from the Brazil strain in September 2021.

Brazil is a good model for this danger— they had uncontrolled infection last year. Many thought they might have even hit herd immunity. Now they are in a massive new wave... possibly due to it being a new variant.
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Oh god please don't be this happen.......is it's not gonna happening soon?
 
D

DisneyFan32

Well-Known Member
In the Parks
Yes
Disney Experience said:
I agree it could happen as you say. But it is a probability game. I would never, other than in jest, suggest intentionally infecting the non-vaccinated with covid. I think that would increase the chances of a mutation before the virus is eliminated or reduced.

We can instead hope the R factor is low enough even with the residual unvaccinated that it dies out (i.e. herd immunity). As it starts to die out lets hope we do not get mutations that are selected through evolutionary pressure that evade the vaccines. If they do then we will have another round of vaccinations (and hopefully limit in the meantime the spread of the new mutation so that they have less chance to mutate once again outside the revised vaccine).
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Is this really gonna happen or not?
 
D

Disney Experience

Well-Known Member
DisneyFan32 said:
Is this really gonna happen or not?
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What we should all want is that the whole world gets vaccinated with effective vaccines as quickly as possible. That is a lot of people., But we have eliminated the main threat (if not the virus in total) of other viruses. Smallpox is eliminated in the wild. Measles is highly reduced. Polio is almost gone with as many cases of vaccine induced cases as wild ones.

None of us know the future, but we can just use history and work to achieve the best possible outcome for ourselves and others around our communities and the world.
 
hopemax

hopemax

Well-Known Member
Disney Experience said:
I agree it could happen as you say. But it is a probability game. I would never, other than in jest, suggest intentionally infecting the non-vaccinated with covid. I think that would increase the chances of a mutation before the virus is eliminated or reduced.

We can instead hope the R factor is low enough even with the residual unvaccinated that it dies out (i.e. herd immunity). As it starts to die out lets hope we do not get mutations that are selected through evolutionary pressure that evade the vaccines. If they do then we will have another round of vaccinations (and hopefully limit in the meantime the spread of the new mutation so that they have less chance to mutate once again outside the revised vaccine).
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Wait. I thought we were engaging in some virus fan fiction. Now you went and got all reality.
 
correcaminos

correcaminos

Well-Known Member
mmascari said:
Hasn't he been issuing statements on letter head that read like tweets?

A quick google confirms that on 3/10, he issued a statement taking credit for the vaccine. That if he wasn't president wouldn't be getting the beautiful "shot" for 5 years.

They even read just like tweets. I know I've seen more than just this one. A light scroll through a Twitter search shows others on 3/8 and 3/5. That's just with the eagle seal at the top. There's more with the Save America logo at the top. Not having Twitter isn't stopping him from doing anything.

None promoting people to actually take the vaccine though.
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My friend going to the ICU and dying caused me to miss a doozy I think. Got a link to save me some time from looking? Sorry I'm beat.
 
hopemax

hopemax

Well-Known Member
DisneyCane said:
Does anybody have a scientific explanation of why artificial immunity via vaccination may last longer than natural immunity via infection with the real virus?
Click to expand...
In general or in regards to SARS-CoV-2? In general, it seems like it can go either way. For HPV it appears the natural response is pretty weak, while the vaccine generates a consistent strong response. While with the Mumps it’s the opposite. Natural immunity lasts longer, while vaccinated people need to get titres checked and may need a booster.

It all comes down to how well your body’s B and T cells react when exposed to the virus. My non-scientific explanation is the blind-folded person and the elephant scenario. Natural immunity the body learns to fight based on what it sees. So if it recognizes a bit of a virus, but then that bit mutates, will it still recognize the virus? Like if a blindfolded person is exposed to the trunk of an elephant and then is presented with the tail, would they recognize both bits as the same elephant? While the vaccines expose the body to the whole spike protein. Or the whole elephant. So if a small bit changes, it should still hopefully say, that’s still an elephant whether I see a trunk, a tail or a leg. So I know what to do.
 
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