Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

(They should really wait 4 weeks to say they are protected, that’s the end point J&J measured)

Agreed, but according to the new CDC guidelines on fully vaccinated people it’s 2 weeks after the shot:

For the purposes of this guidance, people are considered fully vaccinated for COVID-19 ≥2 weeks after they have received the second dose in a 2-dose series (Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna), or ≥2 weeks after they have received a single-dose vaccine (Johnson and Johnson (J&J)/Janssen ).

 

[Patcheslee]

PA took all of their first allocation of JnJ vaccines and sent them to the school districts directly. My district had all teachers and support staff vaccinated yesterday. No appointments needed, and no change to the general vaccine rollout. The only thing they did is make today a virtual learning day in case a large number of staff felt ill from the vaccine and called in sick. Now by the time kids come back from Spring Break all the teachers will be beyond their 2 week wait and immune.

See that makes more sense. We start spring break next Friday, it wouldn't be difficult to host a clinic and get them all covered in a couple days. Right now most appointments during school hours are still available

 

[GoofGoof]

2.9M doses administered was reported today. Pushing that 3M doses a day mark

 

[DisneyCane]

Quick update using Florida long term care facility resident and staff data to show how effective the vaccines are:

All LTC staff who wanted to be vaccinated are at least twelve days from the second shot.

As of 3/12 there are 424 positive residents and 303 positive staff. On 1/18 there were 3,650 and 2,738 respectively. That represents a decrease of 88.4% in LTC residents and 88.9% in LTC staff from 1/18-3/12. Based on the data from worldometers.info, the seven day rolling average of the number of daily cases in FL declined 64.25% in the same period.

As I've said in prior updates, LTC staff are tested every two weeks and are out and about in the community when not at work. Therefore, without vaccination it would be expected for infections among LTC staff to track closely with the general population. If infections in LTC staff declined the same percentage as daily cases in the general population, you would expect approximately 978 currently positive.

This indicates that the vaccination program prevented 675 current infections vs the what would be expected from the general population. It can be calculated that the vaccination program has been shown to be 69% effective in preventing infections. Since we do not know the acceptance rate, it is impossible to calculate the actual vaccine effectiveness but the available data clearly illustrates that the vaccines (at least Pfizer and/or Moderna) are extremely effective in preventing infections.

I don't think this analysis will be valid much longer. As more of the population is fully vaccinated I won't be able to compare vaccinated vs. unvaccinated anymore. I expect that it won't be long before the vaccines start to have an effect on reducing the number of infections in the general population.

 

[DisneyCane]

Does anybody have a scientific explanation of why artificial immunity via vaccination may last longer than natural immunity via infection with the real virus?

 

[havoc315]

My plan takes care of variants too. We infect everyone who isn’t vaccinated intentionally and then even if the virus mutates there is nobody to infect with the variant and its gone. Problem solved

Yes, that only works if you infect EVERYONE... AT THE SAME TIME.
But yup, that works. Maybe.

 

[GimpYancIent]

Yes, that only works if you infect EVERYONE... AT THE SAME TIME.
But yup, that works. Maybe.

I thought that was the Chinese governments plan! Infect the globes population at once and be done with it!

 

[Hoopa]

If I remember correctly, today marks the one-year anniversary (by day of the week) of me starting to lurk in this thread. I don't remember how I found it, but it has been in my bookmarks ever since, and I have checked it almost every day since. I am a high school math teacher in Massachusetts, and we were originally going to close my school for that Friday for a deep cleaning. That turned into a 2-week break before it finally turned into a full remote teaching and learning situation. Like many others, that spring was probably the lowest point of my life. Between the unknown from the virus and trying to teach and get kids across the finish line, I've had never been more anxious and discouraged. Thank you to those in this thread who have shared news, opinions, ups, and downs. I learned a lot about what was going on in the world at large and what people were thinking. The highlights of this thread to me were (and continue to be) the rational discussions and disagreements where both sides treated each other with respect.

In the time that I have been following this thread, my family had outdoor cookouts over the course of the summer (yay), our school opened for hybrid learning in September (yay), the virus cases grew again in the fall and winter (ugh), and the vaccines were developed and are now being released (yay). It has been a roller coaster ride for the past 12 months that I never want to get on again.

In that spring, I had originally booked a trip to WDW for August 2020, then moved it to April 2021. In talking to my brother, he was ready to bring my 3 and 6 year old nieces for their first trip to WDW, so we agreed to move the trip to late August 2021 in the hope that more things would be open in the parks. I don't know what the mask and distance requirements will be at that point, but we will be ready to have fun and enjoy ourselves regardless. I am sure that there will be some things that won't be available (fireworks? shows?), or on the verge of starting to become available to us again. But I feel there will be enough going on to make it worth our while for a week.

So, in closing, I want to thank those of you who have been part of this thread for the past year. You helped keep me informed and sane during this time.

 

[Disney Experience]

Does anybody have a scientific explanation of why artificial immunity via vaccination may last longer than natural immunity via infection with the real virus?

I have linked studies before that showed empirical evidence (Which may not be what you are asking for). For the two shot vaccines they have showed that one shot of the vaccine given to someone who had covid in the past(and still had antibodies) increased the immune response in that individual 140 fold. That response was equivalent to those who never had covid and got both shots.

Antibody response to first BNT162b2 dose in previously SARS-CoV-2-infected individuals

Rapid vaccine-induced population immunity is a key global strategy to control COVID-19. Vaccination programmes must maximise early impact, particularly with accelerated spread of new variants.1 Most vaccine platforms use a two-dose prime-boost approach to generate an immune response against the...

www.thelancet.com

Therefore having 140 fold increase may provide a longer duration of "immunity" (The exact biological mechanism may be what you are asking for and I do not have that in this message). There can always be a question on which part of the immune response is critical for long term immunity (B cells, cd4 or cd8 t cells etc)

Fundamentals of Vaccine Immunology

From a literature review of the current literature, this article provides an introduction to vaccine immunology including a primer on the components of the immune system, passive vs. active immunization, the mechanism(s) by which immunizations stimulate(s) ...

www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov

 

[GoofGoof]

Yes, that only works if you infect EVERYONE... AT THE SAME TIME.
But yup, that works. Maybe.

That’s the plan...all at once at mass infection sites setup around the country

 

[GoofGoof]

If I remember correctly, today marks the one-year anniversary (by day of the week) of me starting to lurk in this thread. I don't remember how I found it, but it has been in my bookmarks ever since, and I have checked it almost every day since. I am a high school math teacher in Massachusetts, and we were originally going to close my school for that Friday for a deep cleaning. That turned into a 2-week break before it finally turned into a full remote teaching and learning situation. Like many others, that spring was probably the lowest point of my life. Between the unknown from the virus and trying to teach and get kids across the finish line, I've had never been more anxious and discouraged. Thank you to those in this thread who have shared news, opinions, ups, and downs. I learned a lot about what was going on in the world at large and what people were thinking. The highlights of this thread to me were (and continue to be) the rational discussions and disagreements where both sides treated each other with respect.

In the time that I have been following this thread, my family had outdoor cookouts over the course of the summer (yay), our school opened for hybrid learning in September (yay), the virus cases grew again in the fall and winter (ugh), and the vaccines were developed and are now being released (yay). It has been a roller coaster ride for the past 12 months that I never want to get on again.

In that spring, I had originally booked a trip to WDW for August 2020, then moved it to April 2021. In talking to my brother, he was ready to bring my 3 and 6 year old nieces for their first trip to WDW, so we agreed to move the trip to late August 2021 in the hope that more things would be open in the parks. I don't know what the mask and distance requirements will be at that point, but we will be ready to have fun and enjoy ourselves regardless. I am sure that there will be some things that won't be available (fireworks? shows?), or on the verge of starting to become available to us again. But I feel there will be enough going on to make it worth our while for a week.

So, in closing, I want to thank those of you who have been part of this thread for the past year. You helped keep me informed and sane during this time.

I’ll see you there. We moved our Aug 2020 trip to August 2021. I’ll be the guy in the sweat strained shirt

 

[Disney Experience]

That’s the plan...all at once at mass infection sites setup around the country

It has to be a Federal mandate!

Edit: Make that a UN mandate! you need the whole world to (at the same time) get infected with all known variants.

 

[hopemax]

My plan takes care of variants too. We infect everyone who isn’t vaccinated intentionally and then even if the virus mutates there is nobody to infect with the variant and its gone. Problem solved

Huh? Reinfection is a real thing with the Powerball winning, natural immunity evading variant (see Brazil). It laughs in your face, when you try to tell it you were already sick and then makes you sick again. So there would be plenty of bodies to infect.

 

[Disney Experience]

Huh? Reinfection is a real thing with the Powerball winning, natural immunity evading variant (see Brazil). It laughs in your face, when you try to tell it you were already sick and then makes you sick again. So there would be plenty of bodies to infect.

I have edited my (in jest) message above to deal with that situation.

 

[Disney Experience]

I have edited my (in jest) message above to deal with that situation.

But in all seriousness the reason @hopemax gave is why vaccines worldwide(and the ability to adapt them to variants) trumps just getting covid as a means to eliminating or minimizing covid going into the future

 

[DisneyFan32]

On Biden’s 51st day in office yesterday we officially passes 100M doses administered. Total as of 9am this morning 101,128,005. Based on the increasing pace of vaccinations I think the new target should be 300M shots by May 1. That would be an average of 4M shots a day. We aren’t at that pace yet but as we ramp up we should have days that exceed that in the not too distant future.

If we assume 50M of those doses are JnJ and 250M are Pfizer and Moderna and there‘s a 60/40 split first shot to 2nd shot we should have 200M people with at least 1 shot. That’s 80% of eligible adults. This is why it’s highly unlikely that many states will have to wait until 5/1 to open vaccines to the general public. To get to 80% started we would have to be on to the general public well before then. If we continue to ramp up deliveries and if we get enough people to take the shots I think there’s a good shot we can see a return to more normal activities even sooner than July 4th. If 80% of adults actually got at least their first shot by May 1 then they would in theory be immune by no later than the 2nd week of June. Again, all depends on vaccine acceptance at this point. If we run out of takers we won’t hit that number as fast.

I'm scared that Brazil variant in USA, it's getting worse as another surge or not? We're doomed by September!

 

[hopemax]

I have edited my (in jest) message above to deal with that situation.

But it's the same problem. The speculation about the existing variants is that they arise because it percolates in 1 body for an extended period of time. So we infect the whole world on April 1st. Most people get sick and recover, but there is one immunocompromised dude who is still sick in June. The doctors keep trying to make him better, plus treat whatever the other illness is and then the virus Borgs itself. Then in July, the dude's family comes to visit because it's been so long, and it's someone's birthday and they can't bear not to see him anymore. They get sick from the laugh in your face variant, and then bam! Whole world at risk again.

 

[Lilofan]

I'm scared that Brazil variant in USA, it's getting worse as another surge or not? We're doomed by September!

If you think that way, I am all takers if you don't need your stimulus check.

 

[DisneyFan32]

First case of Brazil COVID-19 variant found in Washington

If we will stop this thing to avoid another surge, we will herd immunity to get back to normal by a few months.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

PA took all of their first allocation of JnJ vaccines and sent them to the school districts directly. My district had all teachers and support staff vaccinated yesterday. No appointments needed, and no change to the general vaccine rollout. The only thing they did is make today a virtual learning day in case a large number of staff felt ill from the vaccine and called in sick. Now by the time kids come back from Spring Break all the teachers will be beyond their 2 week wait and immune.

...that’s their Pinko Governor...the socialist!!

(What? )