Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

There are other problems with natural infection, most notably variant mutation.

The more natural infection you have, the more opportunity for mutation and variants... some of which may evade vaccines.

And between variants + natural immunity just wearing off... good chance that natural infection to Wuhan strain in December 2020 won’t be protecting you from the Brazil strain in September 2021.

Brazil is a good model for this danger— they had uncontrolled infection last year. Many thought they might have even hit herd immunity. Now they are in a massive new wave... possibly due to it being a new variant.

My plan takes care of variants too. We infect everyone who isn’t vaccinated intentionally and then even if the virus mutates there is nobody to infect with the variant and its gone. Problem solved

 

[GoofGoof]

Well, this is a relevant point, and it's one of the issues I have with Biden's speech. There's a difference between can/can't and should/shouldn't. In most cases, both the president and the CDC have no authority to tell you what behavior you can or cannot engage in. That's why, for example, Biden called upon Americans to wear masks for 100 days but couldn't issue a mandate beyond federal property. Yet Biden chose to frame it as the CDC will be telling us what we "can" and "can't" do. Sorry, but the CDC doesn't have that power.

It’s semantics to me. Everyone knows that they can’t physically make you do anything. The CDC issues guidelines and it’s up to people to follow or not. I see no issue with presenting it as the CDC will release guidelines of what you can and can’t do once vaccinated.

 

[Disney Experience]

Based on the desperate and often incoherent complaints about Biden’s speech from the people who don’t like him and are going to be opposed to anything he says, I’d say he probably hit a home run. It’s obvious by all of the triggered responses with desperate attempts to spin it negative that he hit a nerve.

We just got a formal declaration that all adults will be eligible for the vaccine no later than May 1. I told everyone this a few weeks back, but it‘s much different to hear it from the leader of the free world who put it on the record formally vs a goofy guy on a Disney fan board. There’s simply no way to make a sincere attempt to spin this negative. Having a goal of a return to a level of normalcy for July 4th is a pretty inspirational message in my opinion. You can agree of disagree, but regardless of that, we have 3 highly effective vaccines, we have a commitment from manufacturers to get the vaccines to us at a pretty tremendous pace, we figured out the logistics of getting those shots in people‘s arms quickly to match the delivery pace and now we can say unequivocally that the light is visible at the end of the tunnel. We have a less fuzzy picture of when things can start to return to normal. This is all great news, something we should all celebrate and be happy about together. It’s sad to see people rooting against success or trying to sour the picture just for political gain. Do people really want to see Biden fail and the pandemic rage on just so he looks bad? That’s pathetic and probably bordering on mental illness. I feel sorry for anyone who can’t see the positive in all of this. It has potential disaster out consequences if enough people resist the vaccine because of it.

Here is the thing. USA is a union of states, whose power was given to them by the people and those not given reserved for the people. The same goes for the Federal Government, whose powers are only those that have been granted to it by the states (and the people thereof). There are some things that are done at a federal level and some at a state level. Deciding within a state how to prioritize vaccines in an pandemic would seem to be better situated for a state and it's people, since they understand their needs better than a Federal bureaucracy or leader. I think the announcement was made in order to look like they are doing something more now than before, I prefer they exercise power when it is for the greater good rather than a political want.

So dictating when states must open up vaccine delivery seems to be more political than it is optimizing the vaccination rate in our country. I would expect that many (if not all) states may be there even without the Presidential declaration that they must (Guess they must because the Feds control the vaccine deliveries and can deny them from states that do not comply "voluntarily".) I would have been more happy if the president said that he expects all states to have vaccination available to everyone on May 1st. Personally, I already expected almost all states to have it open by May 1st, but if some states needed time to vaccinate high risk groups, why group them with most states that will likely not need the time. There is power in letting states (and people within each state) to make choices. Power that helps all states.

 

[GoofGoof]

Here is the thing. USA is a union of states, whose power was given to them by the people and those not given reserved for the people. The same goes for the Federal Government, whose powers are only those that have been granted to it by the states (and the people thereof). There are somethings that are done at a federal level and some at a state level. Deciding within a state how to prioritize vaccines in an pandemic would seem to be better situated for a state and it's people, since they understand their needs better than a Federal bureaucracy or leader. I think the announce was made to look like they are doing something more now than before, I prefer they exercise power when it is for the greater good rather than a political want.

So dictating when states must open up vaccine delivery seems to be more political than it is optimizing the vaccination rate in our country. I would expect that many (if not all) states may be there even without the Presidential declaration that they must (Guess because the Feds control the vaccine deliveries and can deny them from states that do not comply "voluntarily".) I would have been more happy if the president said that he expects all states to have vaccination available to everyone on May 1st. Personally, I already expected almost all states to have it open by May 1st, but if some states needed time to vaccinate high risk groups why group them with most states that will likely not. There is power in letting states (and people within each state) to make choices. Power that helps all states.

The people want to know when they will get the vaccine and when things will return to some version of normal. I was highly critical of the administration‘s recent responses that we may not see a return to normal until Christmas or 2022 and when Fauci said the vaccines wouldn’t be open to the general public until possibly as late as June. I saw this as cleaning up those mistakes. We now have a definitive plan on when the vaccine will be available to the general public (sometime in April or sooner), when we will have enough doses for every adult (Mid-May) and also when we could see the first sign of a return to normal for July 4th. These are consistent targets that can be easily tracked and followed. It takes away the guess work of listening to a bunch of random experts who all have different opinions on when this stuff will happen. We have been asking for a consistent and easy to understand plan.

On the May 1 date I think it’s more about setting a guideline that’s easy for everyone to follow vs mandating the states do something they don’t want to. I doubt any state will need to be forced to change over and if they are the federal government should allocate additional doses to get them caught up.

 

[Tom P.]

The people want to know when they will get the vaccine and when things will return to some version of normal. I was highly critical of the administration‘s recent responses that we may not see a return to normal until Christmas or 2022 and when Fauci said the vaccines wouldn’t be open to the general public until possibly as late as June. I saw this as cleaning up those mistakes. We now have a definitive plan on when the vaccine will be available to the general public (sometime in April or sooner), when we will have enough doses for every adult (Mid-May) and also when we could see the first sign of a return to normal for July 4th. These are consistent targets that can be easily tracked and followed. It takes away the guess work of listening to a bunch of random experts who all have different opinions on when this stuff will happen. We have been asking for a consistent and easy to understand plan.

On the May 1 date I think it’s more about setting a guideline that’s easy for everyone to follow vs mandating the states do something they don’t want to. I doubt any state will need to be forced to change over and if they are the federal government should allocate additional doses to get them caught up.

I think that is all generally true. My other problem with the things Biden has been saying, though, is that he seems to be in a pattern of taking things that are already going to happen anyway, setting them as "goals," and then taking credit for them. We were already on pace to hit 100 million doses by 100 days into his presidency when he took office. Yet he continues to tout that as something people thought unachievable that he accomplished. Most, if not all, states were already going to have vaccines open to everyone by May 1st. Probably before that in many cases. And most states are already going to have some or all restrictions lifted by July. He's not pushing anyone to achieve anything new. He's setting goals he knows we are already going to meet so he can take credit for them.

 

[_caleb]

Well, this is a relevant point, and it's one of the issues I have with Biden's speech. There's a difference between can/can't and should/shouldn't. In most cases, both the president and the CDC have no authority to tell you what behavior you can or cannot engage in. That's why, for example, Biden called upon Americans to wear masks for 100 days but couldn't issue a mandate beyond federal property. Yet Biden chose to frame it as the CDC will be telling us what we "can" and "can't" do. Sorry, but the CDC doesn't have that power.

The CDC tells us what we can and can't do safely. They're the authority on what constitutes safe or risky behavior as it pertains to disease control. The underlying assumption is that people care about public health and controlling the spread. Not everything is an attack on your personal liberties, and some things deserve voluntary compliance.

 

[Tom P.]

The CDC tells us what we can and can't do safely. They're the authority on what constitutes safe or risky behavior as it pertains to disease control. The underlying assumption is that people care about public health and controlling the spread. Not everything is an attack on your personal liberties, and some things deserve voluntary compliance.

That is true, and I think some political camps have made issues of things that don't need to be made issues of. For example, I'm not sure why, in 2020, we decided that masks were the cultural issue we were going to war over. If a place requires masks, just put the mask on and be done with it.

On the other hand, I think those on the other side of the aisle could do well to admit that the CDC is not infallible and sometimes their recommendations are just wrong. Also, there are some things that *are* attacks on personal liberties. Dismissing those arguments all out of hand is not a good approach either.

 

[Disney Experience]

The people want to know when they will get the vaccine and when things will return to some version of normal. I was highly critical of the administration‘s recent responses that we may not see a return to normal until Christmas or 2022 and when Fauci said the vaccines wouldn’t be open to the general public until possibly as late as June. I saw this as cleaning up those mistakes. We now have a definitive plan on when the vaccine will be available to the general public (sometime in April or sooner), when we will have enough doses for every adult (Mid-May) and also when we could see the first sign of a return to normal for July 4th. These are consistent targets that can be easily tracked and followed. It takes away the guess work of listening to a bunch of random experts who all have different opinions on when this stuff will happen. We have been asking for a consistent and easy to understand plan.

On the May 1 date I think it’s more about setting a guideline that’s easy for everyone to follow vs mandating the states do something they don’t want to. I doubt any state will need to be forced to change over and if they are the federal government should allocate additional doses to get them caught up.

If they had said it was a guideline, then I would have no problem with it. It could be a semantic error, but the error gives credence to the Republican claim that Democratic Party wants to give the Federal government and bureaucracy Social and Economic control over each state (Beyond the power given to the Federal Government).

In colonial America, British soldiers could come into ones home without warrant. They did it because it was for the good of the crown and the country. It was legal under the British system. The founders wanted to not over empower the government and set this country up with limits on government power and authority. When leaders in their prepared speeches mandate things to the states vs giving guidance it makes one think they believe that for the good of the country they have power to mandate. The only argument for their mandate is that they currently control vaccine supply in this country.

But I agree too that it is about setting guidance (which I am fine with). They should have used words that plainly said that. The CDC at least acknowledge that most ( I am sure in some circumstances there are exceptions) of what they release to the public is guidance and not (in itself) legally binding. Whether states, individual businesses, federal organizations comply with that guidance is up to their organization and what jurisdiction they are under.

 

[GoofGoof]

On Biden’s 51st day in office yesterday we officially passes 100M doses administered. Total as of 9am this morning 101,128,005. Based on the increasing pace of vaccinations I think the new target should be 300M shots by May 1. That would be an average of 4M shots a day. We aren’t at that pace yet but as we ramp up we should have days that exceed that in the not too distant future.

If we assume 50M of those doses are JnJ and 250M are Pfizer and Moderna and there‘s a 60/40 split first shot to 2nd shot we should have 200M people with at least 1 shot. That’s 80% of eligible adults. This is why it’s highly unlikely that many states will have to wait until 5/1 to open vaccines to the general public. To get to 80% started we would have to be on to the general public well before then. If we continue to ramp up deliveries and if we get enough people to take the shots I think there’s a good shot we can see a return to more normal activities even sooner than July 4th. If 80% of adults actually got at least their first shot by May 1 then they would in theory be immune by no later than the 2nd week of June. Again, all depends on vaccine acceptance at this point. If we run out of takers we won’t hit that number as fast.

 

[jmp85]

How long until Disney bus drivers will again be allowed to pack 150 people on a single bus at MK close? The more the merrier, everybody squeeze in!

 

[GoofGoof]

I think that is all generally true. My other problem with the things Biden has been saying, though, is that he seems to be in a pattern of taking things that are already going to happen anyway, setting them as "goals," and then taking credit for them. We were already on pace to hit 100 million doses by 100 days into his presidency when he took office. Yet he continues to tout that as something people thought unachievable that he accomplished. Most, if not all, states were already going to have vaccines open to everyone by May 1st. Probably before that in many cases. And most states are already going to have some or all restrictions lifted by July. He's not pushing anyone to achieve anything new. He's setting goals he knows we are already going to meet so he can take credit for them.

I had a problem with them slow playing stuff like a return to normal by Christmas and the 100M doses in 100 days. I think last night was a partial correction of that stuff. Moving the return to normal up to July 4th from Christmas is a big deal. While some states have already removed restrictions that‘s just plain stupid IMHO. We are so close to the end and it’s not time to showboat and relax our guards now. It’s smart to wait until everyone who wants the vaccine has access to start removing Covid safety protocols. Could he have moved it up a few weeks from July 4th? Maybe, but 7/4 has an emotional response.

 

[Patcheslee]

The people want to know when they will get the vaccine and when things will return to some version of normal. I was highly critical of the administration‘s recent responses that we may not see a return to normal until Christmas or 2022 and when Fauci said the vaccines wouldn’t be open to the general public until possibly as late as June. I saw this as cleaning up those mistakes. We now have a definitive plan on when the vaccine will be available to the general public (sometime in April or sooner), when we will have enough doses for every adult (Mid-May) and also when we could see the first sign of a return to normal for July 4th. These are consistent targets that can be easily tracked and followed. It takes away the guess work of listening to a bunch of random experts who all have different opinions on when this stuff will happen. We have been asking for a consistent and easy to understand plan.

On the May 1 date I think it’s more about setting a guideline that’s easy for everyone to follow vs mandating the states do something they don’t want to. I doubt any state will need to be forced to change over and if they are the federal government should allocate additional doses to get them caught up.

I feel like the May 1 date may be similar to the Federal program when teachers were eligible even if the state says they weren't. Turned into a bit of a mess because here the designated sites had to have a separate registration website for teachers, but weren't created yet, which led to issues finding appointments. At the same time those locations were able to be booked for the state designated people.
Kroger, ironically the only Federal location for teachers right now in the county switched from Pfizer to J&J. Walmart is supposed to be another location for teachers with J&J but they have not received doses yet.

 

[wdwmagic]

How long until Disney bus drivers will again be allowed to pack 150 people on a single bus at MK close? The more the merrier, everybody squeeze in!

Would be nice if those days are gone forever!

 

[GoofGoof]

If they had said it was a guideline, then I would have no problem with it. It could be a semantic error, but the error gives credence to the Republican claim that Democratic Party wants to give the Federal government and bureaucracy Social and Economic control over each state (Beyond the power given to the Federal Government).

In colonial America, British soldiers could come into ones home without warrant. They did it because it was for the good of the crown and the country. It was legal under the British system. The founders wanted to not over empower the government and set this country up with limits on government power and authority. When leaders in their prepared speeches mandate things to the states vs giving guidance it makes one think they believe that for the good of the country they have power to mandate. The only argument for their mandate is that they currently control vaccine supply in this country.

But I agree too that it is about setting guidance (which I am fine with). They should have used words that plainly said that. The CDC at least acknowledge that most ( I am sure in some circumstances there are exceptions) of what they release to the public is guidance and not (in itself) legally binding. Whether states, individual businesses, federal organizations comply with that guidance is up to their organization and what jurisdiction they are under.

We tried the hands off and leave it to the states approach to Covid and we all know how that turned out. Wasn’t one of the the big complaints that the previous administration had no consistent message? Now we want the administration to just defer to the states to do 50 different things? No thanks. I’d rather have less passive leadership from the Federal level on Covid. This is still a state of emergency similar to a war...we don’t allow 50 governors to be co-commander in chief in war times.

 

[GoofGoof]

I feel like the May 1 date may be similar to the Federal program when teachers were eligible even if the state says they weren't. Turned into a bit of a mess because here the designated sites had to have a separate registration website for teachers, but weren't created yet, which led to issues finding appointments. At the same time those locations were able to be booked for the state designated people.
Kroger, ironically the only Federal location for teachers right now in the county switched from Pfizer to J&J. Walmart is supposed to be another location for teachers with J&J but they have not received doses yet.

PA took all of their first allocation of JnJ vaccines and sent them to the school districts directly. My district had all teachers and support staff vaccinated yesterday. No appointments needed, and no change to the general vaccine rollout. The only thing they did is make today a virtual learning day in case a large number of staff felt ill from the vaccine and called in sick. Now by the time kids come back from Spring Break all the teachers will be beyond their 2 week wait and immune.

 

[seascape]

Numbers are out - there were 105 new reported deaths.

View attachment 539060View attachment 539061View attachment 539062View attachment 539063

The 7 day average is now down to 4527.57 a day. That is 20.87 using 2020 population as the NY Times does or 20.4 if they used the 2021 estimated population. Another day, another reduction in the Covid19 rate.

 

[Touchdown]

PA took all of their first allocation of JnJ vaccines and sent them to the school districts directly. My district had all teachers and support staff vaccinated yesterday. No appointments needed, and no change to the general vaccine rollout. The only thing they did is make today a virtual learning day in case a large number of staff felt ill from the vaccine and called in sick. Now by the time kids come back from Spring Break all the teachers will be beyond their 2 week wait and immune.

(They should really wait 4 weeks to say they are protected, that’s the end point J&J measured)

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

To be more precise, I believe the current stance is that they *don't know* whether or not natural infection provides long-term immunity. Covid just hasn't been around long enough for us to have solid data on that yet. But, for that matter, we don't know yet whether or not the vaccines provide long-term immunity either. It may be that you have to get a booster every year, just like the flu shot. But I'm not sure that natural immunity is less likely to endure than vaccine-induced immunity.

If they don’t know (true)...then you can’t actually formulate a scientific plan on it (also true).

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There are other problems with natural infection, most notably variant mutation.

The more natural infection you have, the more opportunity for mutation and variants... some of which may evade vaccines.

And between variants + natural immunity just wearing off... good chance that natural infection to Wuhan strain in December 2020 won’t be protecting you from the Brazil strain in September 2021.

Brazil is a good model for this danger— they had uncontrolled infection last year. Many thought they might have even hit herd immunity. Now they are in a massive new wave... possibly due to it being a new variant.

They’ve got major issues...

And they’ve earned a full on travel ban into the US.

 

[Disney Experience]

We tried the hands off and leave it to the states approach to Covid and we all know how that turned out. Wasn’t one of the the big complaints that the previous administration had no consistent message? Now we want the administration to just defer to the states to do 50 different things? No thanks. I’d rather have less passive leadership from the Federal level on Covid. This is still a state of emergency similar to a war...we don’t allow 50 governors to be co-commander in chief in war times.

Dealing with foreign powers and war is something the founders gave to the Federal government. A pandemic may need to have a lot of things done at the federal level, for efficiency and planning reasons. There are arguments that it falls on the federal government when one states actions impacts another state. That could happen in a pandemic. I do not think setting a mandate that is already likely (as was the 100 mill shot goal) to be achieved by the state is needed to avoid harm from one state to another. A consistent message is great, no problem with guidance, rather just hate to see some of the strengths of our country slowly erode in the political minds running our country.

But again guidance vs a mandate. They can achieve the messaging. But the assumption that the federal government can do it all and do it better is not healthy for our United States. I do not think setting a mandate(vs giving guidance) for May 1 nationwide makes us as a nation get vaccinated sooner, so it is just a political move that slightly moves power unnecessarily into Federal hands.