Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

Can someone who is tracking this summarize where we are with ordered doses?

• 300M Pfizer and 300M Moderna delivered by end of July. Enough for 300M people.
• 200M JnJ with 100M delivered end of May now I think and the second 100M to be ordered today. Not sure when they will be delivered but that’s a 1 shot deal so enough for 200M people
• 100M Novavax which is expected to be approved in May at the latest and delivered by the end of July. Enough for 50M people
• 200M doses of AstraZenneca purchased but not approved yet and no timeline. Enough for 100M people.
• There were additional purchase under Warp Speed for a Merk vaccine which has been cancelled and a vaccine from Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline which is delayed now until late 2021 at the earliest and May end up canceled.

So with Pfizer, Moderna and JnJ we would have enough doses for 500M people by end of July timeframe. If Novavax is approved add 50M more people. AstraZenneca could be approved this Spring as well, but that’s less certain.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Exactly!

I have often wondered IF somebody discovered a cure for cancer, how many people worldwide would no longer have a job because they have spent their career researching ways to treat and cure cancer.

Unfortunately, I don't think I'll get the answer in my lifetime. I expect treatments to get better and better and survival rates to continue to improve but I don't think a treatment that cures all cancers (and doesn't kill the patient in the process) will happen anytime in the foreseeable future.

Plus... cancer is not a single disease. Its a category of diseases, with potentially an infinite number of different biochemical mechanisms. Asking why we "can't cure cancer" is like asking why we can't cure infection or trauma.

And in fact, we can effectively "cure" many cancers, or at least, put them into indefinite remission. But with very few exceptions, there isn't an easy magic bullet for treatment, and especially not a single treatment that could work for all cancers, anymore than there would be a single antibiotic that would work against all bacteria.

Ok, rant over...

 

[GoofGoof]

People letting the guard down is just an assumption. The other real possibility is that the area is getting hit with a more contagious variant. The fact that this is happening in three geo-graphically close states would point in that direction.

I agree that we shouldn't be playing who is better then who, but I also think it's important to try to understand what is driving those cycles.

Agreed. The surge in CA has at least partially been linked to a more contagious variant. There have been reports of a more contagious variant in NYC recently. It’s too easy to just blame it on stupid behavior or failed government. I don’t see things happening today in NY/NJ that would lead me to believe it’s all behavior based. I think some of it is pure cyclical nature of the spread and possibly some from the variant.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Not to open a can of worms, but it's interesting to look at home many drugs are out there to treat difference diseases and conditions, but that don't actually cure the underlying problem.

Probably becauae the underlying cause is usually not "curable".

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

Other types of businesses had limits based on percent of capacity, it was not a fixed number.

Interesting. It’s hard to judge without knowing all the details.

There are certainly some decisions that didn’t make sense. In North Carolina the Great Smoky Mountains Railroad was allowed to operate but the Tweetsie Railroad wasn’t. That made no sense at all. (And even less sense if you considered the operations, Tweetsie runs all open air cars, GSMR has a enclosed air conditioned cars they were running along with the open air cars).

 

[danlb_2000]

• 300M Pfizer and 300M Moderna delivered by end of July. Enough for 300M people.
• 200M JnJ with 100M delivered end of May now I think and the second 100M to be ordered today. Not sure when they will be delivered but that’s a 1 shot deal so enough for 200M people
• 100M Novavax which is expected to be approved in May at the latest and delivered by the end of July. Enough for 50M people
• 200M doses of AstraZenneca purchased but not approved yet and no timeline. Enough for 100M people.
• There were additional purchase under Warp Speed for a Merk vaccine which has been cancelled and a vaccine from Sanofi and GlaxoSmithKline which is delayed now until late 2021 at the earliest and May end up canceled.

So with Pfizer, Moderna and JnJ we would have enough doses for 500M people by end of July timeframe. If Novavax is approved add 50M more people. AstraZenneca could be approved this Spring as well, but that’s less certain.

I think that total number is pretty reasonable. You want to have some padding in there to account for waste, uncertainty as to how big our population really is, and, god forbid, we an issue is found with one of the vaccines that requires us to pause or even stop it's use.

 

[danlb_2000]

Agreed. The surge in CA has at least partially been linked to a more contagious variant. There have been reports of a more contagious variant in NYC recently. It’s too easy to just blame it on stupid behavior or failed government. I don’t see things happening today in NY/NJ that would lead me to believe it’s all behavior based. I think some of it is pure cyclical nature of the spread and possibly some from the variant.

We really need to be doing more sequencing here in the US. This is an area that other countries, like the UK, seem to be more focused on.

 

[GoofGoof]

I think that total number is pretty reasonable. You want to have some padding in there to account for waste, uncertainty as to how big our population really is, and, god forbid, we an issue is found with one of the vaccines that requires us to pause or even stop it's use.

Yep, it’s really encouraging to see. We now have enough doses for everyone and some bench strength should something fail. There are 250M adults in the US and if we approve down to 12 that number hits 280M. So god forbid something happens to Pfizer or Moderna and they have to stop deliveries. We would be down doses for maybe 100M people but we’d still have plenty of doses by the end of July. In theory if we lost Pfizer and Moderna at the same time we’d still be OK with JnJ up to 200M doses now and Novavax coming soon. Obviously I don’t want to see that happen, but it’s great to have a backup to the backup. It also means the companies can miss their targets and not set us back. If Pfizer and Moderna only deliver 250M doses each by the end of July we won’t miss a beat since we are over ordered today. Those extra doses go to the stock pile anyway and aren’t needed for actual jabs. Once we get enough delivered for the entire population we can start sending doses to friends and allies as well.

 

[Kevin_W]

I think that total number is pretty reasonable. You want to have some padding in there to account for waste, uncertainty as to how big our population really is, and, god forbid, we an issue is found with one of the vaccines that requires us to pause or even stop it's use.

Right. And at he the fairly trivial cost for the vaccines (compared to, say, the stimulus bill just passed), they can be donated to other countries if we don't need them.

 

[Kevin_W]

? Aye you saying J & J is better than Pfizer because it is a one shot?

1 shot is certainly better than 2 (convenience and cost), though that is just one factor that goes into whether it is a "better" shot.

 

[GoofGoof]

1 shot is certainly better than 2 (convenience and cost), though that is just one factor that goes into whether it is a "better" shot.

It’s also better for workers who work outside the home and don’t get paid for sick days. If you get 2 shots that’s 2 potential days you have to leave work early or go in late to get the jab and you also run the risk of being ill from side effects twice instead of 1 time. So if you are an hourly worker who doesn’t want to miss time without pay it’s a huge advantage.

I have full confidence in the mRNA vaccines, but they are new technology. For anyone who is on the fence because they think the vaccines were developed too fast the JnJ vaccine uses existing technology that’s used today in Ebola and other vaccines worldwide. Millions of people have received the same vaccine just modified to protect against Ebola instead of COvid. It should make some of those people less hesitant if they bother to actually learn about the vaccines. That’s where the PR comes in.

 

[Patcheslee]

Can someone who is tracking this summarize where we are with ordered doses?

Soon as I get back to my laptop, I have for the states allocation in FL. I do know Pfizer has increased weekly, but Moderna has flatlined at 208000 first and 208000 2nd doses for the past 4 weeks now.. J&J is still not reporting any doses for this week's delivery or next.

 

[lazyboy97o]

Plus... cancer is not a single disease. Its a category of diseases, with potentially an infinite number of different biochemical mechanisms. Asking why we "can't cure cancer" is like asking why we can't cure infection or trauma.

And in fact, we can effectively "cure" many cancers, or at least, put them into indefinite remission. But with very few exceptions, there isn't an easy magic bullet for treatment, and especially not a single treatment that could work for all cancers, anymore than there would be a single antibiotic that would work against all bacteria.

Ok, rant over...

I think this rant is very important. It is something too much of the general public clearly does not know and should know. We’ve seen the line that COVID-19 isn’t a big deal because it doesn’t kill as many people as heart disease and cancer. Some of the claims that the vaccines are not safe or real are based in the lack of a vaccine or cure for the common cold. This pandemic has really shed a light on some very pervasive ignorance of basic medical knowledge.

 

[JoeCamel]

Yep, it’s really encouraging to see. We now have enough doses for everyone and some bench strength should something fail. There are 250M adults in the US and if we approve down to 12 that number hits 280M. So god forbid something happens to Pfizer or Moderna and they have to stop deliveries. We would be down doses for maybe 100M people but we’d still have plenty of doses by the end of July. In theory if we lost Pfizer and Moderna at the same time we’d still be OK with JnJ up to 200M doses now and Novavax coming soon. Obviously I don’t want to see that happen, but it’s great to have a backup to the backup. It also means the companies can miss their targets and not set us back. If Pfizer and Moderna only deliver 250M doses each by the end of July we won’t miss a beat since we are over ordered today. Those extra doses go to the stock pile anyway and aren’t needed for actual jabs. Once we get enough delivered for the entire population we can start sending doses to friends and allies as well.

I hope this is not going to be like the PPE at the start where the government buys up all the supply and others that need it have to scramble to find it.
I wonder if we will supply Canada and Mexico with any excess?

 

[danlb_2000]

I think this rant is very important. It is something too much of the general public clearly does not know and should know. We’ve seen the line that COVID-19 isn’t a big deal because it doesn’t kill as many people as heart disease and cancer. Some of the claims that the vaccines are not safe or real are based in the lack of a vaccine or cure for the common cold. This pandemic has really shed a light on some very pervasive ignorance of basic medical knowledge.

I think people have progressively gotten higher expectations of medical science, but they would probably be surprised at home much we still don't know. I have been listening to back episodes of the This Week in Virology podcast and they have a running joke that when you ask an expert a question and they respond with "that's an interesting question", it means, we just don't know the answer.

 

[danlb_2000]

I hope this is not going to be like the PPE at the start where the government buys up all the supply and others that need it have to scramble to find it.
I wonder if we will supply Canada and Mexico with any excess?

The vaccines do have a limited shelf life based on how they are stored, so at some point it would make sense to give away or sell the excess.

 

[Heppenheimer]

I hope this is not going to be like the PPE at the start where the government buys up all the supply and others that need it have to scramble to find it.
I wonder if we will supply Canada and Mexico with any excess?

My Canadian in-laws are definately hoping for this.

 

[Patcheslee]

Just from the CDC site This week FL will receive 470,080 first doses and 417,340 2nd doses between Moderna and Pfizer, Next week they will receive 489,970 first doses and 447,850 2nd doses. To date they have been allocated enough for 4,570,210 people in FL, not including any Federally sponsored vaccination sites.

Far as all of US this is the one I've found https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/covid-19-vaccine-doses.html

 

[DisneyFan32]

Agreed. The surge in CA has at least partially been linked to a more contagious variant. There have been reports of a more contagious variant in NYC recently. It’s too easy to just blame it on stupid behavior or failed government. I don’t see things happening today in NY/NJ that would lead me to believe it’s all behavior based. I think some of it is pure cyclical nature of the spread and possibly some from the variant.

Could that means we will not gonna have resurgence of variants or virus by fall / winter because millions of people will be vaccinated by summer or late summer

 

[MisterPenguin]

Can someone who is tracking this summarize where we are with ordered doses?

I threw the extra 100M from J&J into July's shipment because, by then, it's all just excess.

And if Novavax comes through...