Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[GoofGoof]

I see no harm in erring on the side of caution. Not talking about wearing masks and restricting capacity unnecessarily for years. But I see no harm in saying, “cases are way down... let’s hold steady for a month... then remove a bunch of restrictions. Then hold steady for a month, then go back to normal.”

We’re in new territory. Nothing wrong with showing some caution.

Right, a gradual reduction is smart. What I mean is we have vaccines for everyone by July at the latest but somehow there’s not a return to normal until Christmas. There’s no reason to wait 5 months just in case. Unless cases don’t drop off for some reason.

 

[havoc315]

I would have no issue with a vaccine passport but I understand it won’t happen here. I am hopeful it won’t be needed. For arguments sake if all Americans who want the vaccine have access to it by July (I think sooner, but that’s Biden’s goal) then I see no reason the parks can’t return to mostly normal soon after. We can’t expect Disney as a business or 80% of the public to continue to act as If the vaccines don’t exist for the benefit of the 20% who won’t get it. They will become naturally immune soon enough anyway. Some percent of people who are vaccinated won’t be immune but even they won’t likely get seriously ill if infected since the vaccines are highly effective in preventing death and hospitalization.

Be very cautious with that last line. A lot of people are incorrectly stating that the vaccines are so great at preventing serious disease. Reality is, the studies don’t have nearly enough data to draw any such conclusions, especially as to new variants and over the long term.

The studies were only short term and the sample sizes of hospitalization and death were way too small to draw any conclusions.

Pfizer for example — there were 2 deaths in the placebo group, iirc, and 0 deaths in the vaccine group. Woohoo... 100% effective against death! But a 2 vs 0 comparison is an extremely low level of confidence. It’s like if I rolled a die 10 times. Would it be surprising if I rolled a 6 two times? Not really. Would it be shocking if I rolled a 6 zero times? Not really.
Now, if I rolled the die 500 times and got zero 6’s, that would be significant statistically. But a 2 vs 0... not enough data.
The phase 3 trial is designed to get enough data to draw statistically meaningful data on total infections. (Where the Pfizer results were something like 500 vs 50). The trials aren’t big enough or long-term enough to draw reliable conclusions on small subsets like death or hospitalization.

 

[havoc315]

Right, a gradual reduction is smart. What I mean is we have vaccines for everyone by July at the latest but somehow there’s not a return to normal until Christmas. There’s no reason to wait 5 months just in case. Unless cases don’t drop off for some reason.

It all depends on the drop. If we have plenty of vaccines by July... but 50% of Americans are refusing to get vaccinated, and 500-1,000 people per day are continuing to die, including a fair number of vaccinated people... then as Fauci said today, we may need masks into 2022z

If we are in July and 75% of Americans have gotten vaccinated, and we are down to under 50 deaths per day, mostly occurring in traceable clusters, then I can certainly see tossing masks in the garbage by August or September.

 

[GoofGoof]

Be very cautious with that last line. A lot of people are incorrectly stating that the vaccines are so great at preventing serious disease. Reality is, the studies don’t have nearly enough data to draw any such conclusions, especially as to new variants and over the long term.

The studies were only short term and the sample sizes of hospitalization and death were way too small to draw any conclusions.

Pfizer for example — there were 2 deaths in the placebo group, iirc, and 0 deaths in the vaccine group. Woohoo... 100% effective against death! But a 2 vs 0 comparison is an extremely low level of confidence. It’s like if I rolled a die 10 times. Would it be surprising if I rolled a 6 two times? Not really. Would it be shocking if I rolled a 6 zero times? Not really.
Now, if I rolled the die 500 times and got zero 6’s, that would be significant statistically. But a 2 vs 0... not enough data.
The phase 3 trial is designed to get enough data to draw statistically meaningful data on total infections. (Where the Pfizer results were something like 500 vs 50). The trials aren’t big enough or long-term enough to draw reliable conclusions on small subsets like death or hospitalization.

It has proved out in the real world already. In Israel they looked at a group of 1.7M people and the Pfizer vaccine was 98.9% effective in preventing hospitalization.

Israel Unveils Real-world Pfizer Data, 'Green Badge'

Country will begin offering more freedom to those with shots

www.voanews.com

 

[disneycp]

It all depends on the drop. If we have plenty of vaccines by July... but 50% of Americans are refusing to get vaccinated, and 500-1,000 people per day are continuing to die, including a fair number of vaccinated people... then as Fauci said today, we may need masks into 2022z

If we are in July and 75% of Americans have gotten vaccinated, and we are down to under 50 deaths per day, mostly occurring in traceable clusters, then I can certainly see tossing masks in the garbage by August or September.

Just say you’re hell bent on finding some way to shoehorn in the fact that restrictions could continue for a long time in a worst case scenario and let’s move on to something more productive.

 

[havoc315]

Just say you’re hell bent on finding some way to shoehorn in the fact that restrictions could continue for a long time in a worst case scenario and let’s move on to something more productive.

How is quoting what Fauci said today being “hell bent”? Seems you’re pretty hell bent on ignoring every expert when they say things you don’t like.

 

[GoofGoof]

It all depends on the drop. If we have plenty of vaccines by July... but 50% of Americans are refusing to get vaccinated, and 500-1,000 people per day are continuing to die, including a fair number of vaccinated people... then as Fauci said today, we may need masks into 2022z

If we are in July and 75% of Americans have gotten vaccinated, and we are down to under 50 deaths per day, mostly occurring in traceable clusters, then I can certainly see tossing masks in the garbage by August or September.

I am not talking about masks specifically. Businesses are still restricted, group gatherings are still prohibited a lot of places, DLR isn’t even open, there are many things that can be reduced or eliminated without even talking about masks yet, although I agree that if cases drop off enough and the vaccine is fully rolled out it’s possible masks become just optional most places as early as this summer.

At some point if 50% of Americans refuse the vaccine it will likely be because covid largely disappeared before they were eligible (similar to H1N1). Outside of that highly unlikely scenario I don’t see how we end up that bad off. We can agree to disagree on the effectiveness of the vaccines. Nothing in the trials or the general public rollout suggests that a fair number of vaccinated people will continue to die either way.

 

[Vegas Disney Fan]

I would have no issue with a vaccine passport but I understand it won’t happen here. I am hopeful it won’t be needed. For arguments sake if all Americans who want the vaccine have access to it by July (I think sooner, but that’s Biden’s goal) then I see no reason the parks can’t return to mostly normal soon after. We can’t expect Disney as a business or 80% of the public to continue to act as If the vaccines don’t exist for the benefit of the 20% who won’t get it. They will become naturally immune soon enough anyway. Some percent of people who are vaccinated won’t be immune but even they won’t likely get seriously ill if infected since the vaccines are highly effective in preventing death and hospitalization.

I plan on getting the vaccine also but the problem I see with the vaccine passport is how does a company enforce it?

The government has direct access to medical records so it’s easy for them to verify vaccinations, Disney doesn’t have access to medical records so they’d have to take your word for it, require a paper form (could be easily forged), or require a digital form (potentially opening themselves to discrimination lawsuits since not everyone has a cell phone). They already have a hard enough time fighting abuse of the disability access cards, I just don’t see them taking on the headache that would be involved with verifying hundreds of thousands of guests a day.

 

[disneycp]

How is quoting what Fauci said today being “hell bent”? Seems you’re pretty hell bent on ignoring every expert when they say things you don’t like.

I could say the exact same thing about you...? several experts/studies have come forward saying that things are going incredibly well with the vaccine effort in the US, even better than could be expected, and yet every single one of your posts is “sure, BUT what if for some reason everything goes horribly wrong and cases skyrocket and and and.” Yeah, sure, that’s possible, but I don’t see a point in discussing it until that seems likely to happen, which it doesn’t. Just give it a rest already

 

[GoofGoof]

I plan on getting the vaccine also but the problem I see with the vaccine passport is how does a company enforce it?

The government has direct access to medical records so it’s easy for them to verify vaccinations, Disney doesn’t have access to medical records so they’d have to take your word for it, require a paper form (could be easily forged), or require a digital form (potentially opening themselves to discrimination lawsuits since not everyone has a cell phone). They already have a hard enough time fighting abuse of the disability access cards, I just don’t see them taking on the headache that would be involved with verifying hundreds of thousands of guests a day.

If they did a vaccine passport it would be government run. You would likely have to download an app that would show you were vaccinated and/or issue a paper copy of a passport. You would then show your passport to get into a ball game or a concert or WDW or on an airplane. In Israel they are even going as far as requiring it at bars. I don’t think it would go over well here.

 

[havoc315]

It has proved out in the real world already. In Israel they looked at a group of 1.7M people and the Pfizer vaccine was 98.9% effective in preventing hospitalization.

Israel Unveils Real-world Pfizer Data, 'Green Badge'

Country will begin offering more freedom to those with shots

www.voanews.com

Ahhh... That actually isn’t exactly what the data says. Or at least that’s very easy for people to misinterpret.

What it says is that it resulted in 98.5% fewer infections. GREAT!
So then, we would expect it naturally to result in 98.5% fewer hospitalizations!!!
and in fact... it’s pretty close to that.. 98.9% fewer hospitalizations.

So what that shows is that infections were wayyyy down. But among vaccinated people who were still infected, their odds of avoiding hospitalization were only slightly better than people who weren’t vaccinated.

Now extrapolate further. Around 100 million Americans will get the JNJ vaccine —- which isn’t anywhere near the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine. Efficacy in the 70% range.

And for both, we don’t yet know how effective the vaccines will be even 6 months after administration. That 98% effectiveness could drop to 30% after 6 months — we have no idea.

So if only 50% of the population gets vaccinated... and if half of those are the JNJ... We can still have a significant number of vaccinated hospitalizations and deaths, if we don’t grab the opportunity to eradicate Covid. Even worse— if the vaccines lose effectiveness over time.. if new variants evade the vaccines... Then we could be right back to 3,000 deaths per day next December.

So here is what we do know: Even if efficacy is only 70%... even if efficacy disappears in 6-12 months... we know we can still practically eliminate Covid with mitigation + vaccines. Once numbers are truly reduced to tiny, we can use testing and tracking to prevent growth of any outbreaks.

That’s why it’s critical to seize the day. Vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible. Take every reasonable measure to squash the virus as soon as possible. And THEN return to “normal.”

 

[havoc315]

I could say the exact same thing about you...? several experts/studies have come forward saying that things are going incredibly well with the vaccine effort in the US, even better than could be expected, and yet every single one of your posts is “sure, BUT what if for some reason everything goes horribly wrong and cases skyrocket and and and.” Yeah, sure, that’s possible, but I don’t see a point in discussing it until that seems likely to happen, which it doesn’t. Just give it a rest already

Please... show me 1 actual epidemiology expert I’ve disagreed with. They stress the exact same cautions I stress. I share the same optimisms and same cautions as they do.

So I’ll wait... you’re hell bent on dismissing the CDC, Fauci, and every expert. Show me one actual expert I’ve contradicted?

 

[havoc315]

I am not talking about masks specifically. Businesses are still restricted, group gatherings are still prohibited a lot of places, DLR isn’t even open, there are many things that can be reduced or eliminated without even talking about masks yet, although I agree that if cases drop off enough and the vaccine is fully rolled out it’s possible masks become just optional most places as early as this summer.

At some point if 50% of Americans refuse the vaccine it will likely be because covid largely disappeared before they were eligible (similar to H1N1). Outside of that highly unlikely scenario I don’t see how we end up that bad off. We can agree to disagree on the effectiveness of the vaccines. Nothing in the trials or the general public rollout suggests that a fair number of vaccinated people will continue to die either way.

It’s not a matter of disagreeing on the effectiveness of the vaccines. It’s a matter of simply factually stating the data, including what we know and what we don’t.
We know the Pfizer vaccine is GREAT at preventing infection, hospitalization and death for the first 2-3 months after administration.
We have NO CLUE one way or another how long that effectiveness lasts, or how it will do against newer variants.
We KNOW the JNJ vaccine is very good at preventing infection.. but we also know it’s no where near as good as the Pfizer vaccine. And overall, we know even less about the JNJ vaccine than the Pfizer.

That’s something that’s been missing way too often: Humility, the ability just to admit we don’t know. And since we don’t know, we need to be cautious.

 

[disneycp]

Please... show me 1 actual epidemiology expert I’ve disagreed with. They stress the exact same cautions I stress. I share the same optimisms and same cautions as they do.

So I’ll wait... you’re hell bent on dismissing the CDC, Fauci, and every expert. Show me one actual expert I’ve contradicted?

you share optimisms of any sort? I’ve yet to see it. I’m just going to mute you, I really don’t care to try to sway your opinion, be negative as much as you want. People who actually know what they’re talking about are optimistic about this year and so am I

 

[GoofGoof]

Ahhh... That actually isn’t exactly what the data says. Or at least that’s very easy for people to misinterpret.

What it says is that it resulted in 98.5% fewer infections. GREAT!
So then, we would expect it naturally to result in 98.5% fewer hospitalizations!!!
and in fact... it’s pretty close to that.. 98.9% fewer hospitalizations.

So what that shows is that infections were wayyyy down. But among vaccinated people who were still infected, their odds of avoiding hospitalization were only slightly better than people who weren’t vaccinated.

Now extrapolate further. Around 100 million Americans will get the JNJ vaccine —- which isn’t anywhere near the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine. Efficacy in the 70% range.

And for both, we don’t yet know how effective the vaccines will be even 6 months after administration. That 98% effectiveness could drop to 30% after 6 months — we have no idea.

So if only 50% of the population gets vaccinated... and if half of those are the JNJ... We can still have a significant number of vaccinated hospitalizations and deaths, if we don’t grab the opportunity to eradicate Covid. Even worse— if the vaccines lose effectiveness over time.. if new variants evade the vaccines... Then we could be right back to 3,000 deaths per day next December.

So here is what we do know: Even if efficacy is only 70%... even if efficacy disappears in 6-12 months... we know we can still practically eliminate Covid with mitigation + vaccines. Once numbers are truly reduced to tiny, we can use testing and tracking to prevent growth of any outbreaks.

That’s why it’s critical to seize the day. Vaccinate as many people as possible as quickly as possible. Take every reasonable measure to squash the virus as soon as possible. And THEN return to “normal.”

We can agree to disagree. The study was released and it doesn‘t say anywhere that the odds of avoiding hospitalization is only slightly better if you are vaccinated. JnJ was also highly effective in their trial at preventing death and hospitalization. Not sure why you are hell bent on discrediting these vaccines. They work well and that’s a great thing.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

For marginalize people? Yeah no, the trends have to do with trust. Please don't act like you know when you haven't spent a lot of time convincing loved ones to take it.

I tend to look too deep. So I have a decent eye when someone else is doing it.

It has dates and demographics...there’s no “hidden meaning” when you’re plotting on 2 axis.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think you have a point that we’re underselling the benefit of getting the vaccine — not only because they appear to be 100% effective against dying from COVID-19. However, prematurely predicting what happens if everything goes right carries much bigger risks. It finally feels like progress is being made, but counting your chickens before they hatch here could ruin a lot of that progress.

It’s a tough spot. And it was always going to be In the US.

Because of our “comforts”, doctors can’t portray optimism or fear...and it’s a complete guess what’s “too little” information and what’s “too much”...

Because if you miss any way, things go off the rails and/or are immediately seized on by profiteers.

It’s like mentally herding cats

 

[Horizons '83]

It’s not a matter of disagreeing on the effectiveness of the vaccines. It’s a matter of simply factually stating the data, including what we know and what we don’t.
We know the Pfizer vaccine is GREAT at preventing infection, hospitalization and death for the first 2-3 months after administration.
We have NO CLUE one way or another how long that effectiveness lasts, or how it will do against newer variants.
We KNOW the JNJ vaccine is very good at preventing infection.. but we also know it’s no where near as good as the Pfizer vaccine. And overall, we know even less about the JNJ vaccine than the Pfizer.

That’s something that’s been missing way too often: Humility, the ability just to admit we don’t know. And since we don’t know, we need to be cautious.

Food for thought on the J&J vaccine

Why The Johnson & Johnson Vaccine Has Gotten A Bad Rap — And Why That's Not Fair

By some measures, the Johnson & Johnson vaccine may appear to be less effective than Moderna and Pfizer. But Dr. Ashish Jha says when it comes to hospitalizations and deaths, it's just as good.

www.npr.org

 

[havoc315]

We can agree to disagree. The study was released and it doesn‘t say anywhere that the odds of avoiding hospitalization is only slightly better if you are vaccinated.

It says it in the very first paragraph.
“their risk of illness from the coronavirus drop 98.5% and their risk of hospitalization drop 98.9%,”

In other words, risk of hospitalization was reduced only slightly more than the risk of illness.

Yes — your risk of hospitalization is way down. because your risk of illness is way down!

But among those who still do get ill with the vaccine.. within that subgroup, their risk of hospitalization is only slightly better.

It’s right there in black and white.

Simplifying it even more.
In the non-vaccinated group... if 100,000 people get ill, and 10,000 need hospitalization..
Applying the Israel stats.. it would mean 1500 vaccinated people get ill. (A 98.5% reduction). And 110 vaccinated people get hospitalized (a 98.9% reduction).

So among non-vaccinated... in this illustration, 1 out of 10 ill patients end up in the hospital. Among vaccinated patients, 1 out of every 14 ill patients ends up in the Hospital.

Again, it’s right there in the first paragraph if you understand basic statistics.

 

[hopemax]

Just wanted to throw out there... there is one more thing besides death and hospitalizations that we need to have decrease. Incidents of long-covid. 1/3rd of people experiencing long-covid only experienced mild illness and were never hospitalized. If the vaccine does well to convert deaths/hospitalizations -> mild cases, how many of those might still result in long-covid? It's likely too soon to have any data on incident rates, has anyone seen anything? This is a reason why we need total cases to come down, even if people are vaccinated, and we need to be concerned with the number of unvaccinated and not just "abandon them to their choice/fate." If someone's mild illness still results in long term damage, we will all be paying for it via increased disability / health care costs.