GoofGoof
Premium Member
Exactly. My hope is that by May/June timeframe all Americans 12 and up will be eligible for the vaccine and supply will be readily available. If the companies reach their targets we will get there. There are roughly 280M Americans 12 and older but realistically not everyone will get the vaccine. Pfizer has recently said their first 200M doses will be delivered by end of May (enough for 100M people). JnJ has said their first 100M doses would be delivered maybe as early as the end of April but definitely by end of May and that’s a 1 shot vaccine so 100M people. Moderna is still projecting 100M by end of March and second 100M by end of June. Assuming an even rollout by the end of May Moderna should have delivered 166M doses (enough for 83M people). So doing the quick math that’s enough doses for 283M people by the end of May. That covers 100% of all Americans 12 and older. As 11 and under kids get approved we should have a stockpile of extra Pfizer doses for them since they are the most likely to be approved first.Too many if's and's + butts about "immunity. How long it lasts, the level of immunity, to what variant etc. The vaccine passport idea is nice for international travel or boarding floating Petri dishes, sorry, I mean Cruise Ships. For interstate travel and day to day activities it is prudent, commons sense, only reasonable to maintain the facemask and other protocols currently in place. When anyone can go to Walgreens, CVS or any other such location and receive the COVID19 vaccine on request without all the red tape currently in place and the infection numbers actually decline the protocols can then be reviewed.
If vaccine acceptance levels reach the 80% that recent polling suggests we should have about 224M Americans fully vaccinated by the end of May or early in June if some still need their second shot. That’s close to 70% of the total population and unvaccinated will be heavily skewed to kids under 12 which may or may not spread the virus as easily as adults. They certainly don’t get as sick in general. I think there’s a good chance that we see the impact of vaccines well before we hit 200M+ vaccinated. I am hopeful that cases spiral downward and if we continue with mitigation and also take 2/3 of the population out of the pool who can be infected we should see cases flatline in a matter of weeks not months. I don’t think we go back to 100% no restrictions on June 1, but I think we start pulling back restrictions at some point this Spring and as long as cases don’t spike we continue that pull back. Just like the way the reopening plans last May were supposed to work only this time hopefully due to the vaccine there’s no massive spike in cases like last summer.