Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Chi84]

Um, that’s kind of the point. What’s the advantage a person gets because they have proof of vaccine? $50 worth, $100, $200, more? Add the fake proof to the vacation cost, it’s probably nothing in that context. Now you have someone without vaccine and without the stopgap measures.

You’re misreading this as current mitigations forever. Reduce the spread, reduce the mitigations. It’s always been that simple. It’s admittedly much harder today than it would have been 6 months ago, but the root problem hasn’t changed. There’s no good way to cheat it and reduce for some and not others early. It’s a guarantee cheaters will cheat the cheating to get the special privileges.

I think you’re too focused on cheating. We can’t make decisions based on people who might cheat. Just adopt a reasonable system and it shouldn’t be that much of an issue.

 

[Yodascousin]

I was (and remain) staunchly opposed to Brexit, and I think the British government has handled the pandemic terribly, but as far as the vaccine rollout is concerned, you are right. The EU has really failed its citizens.

Agree with all of this

 

[danlb_2000]

Switching gears a little. Here’s an interesting article showing the disparity of economic impact of the pandemic between higher earners and lower earners.

The richest 20% of America are the real pandemic supersavers

U.S. households accumulated around $1.6 trillion in excess savings over the last 10 months, but that mostly stayed at the top.

www.yahoo.com

It’s interesting to read that the top 20% of earners increased their savings significantly and the next 20% had a modest increase while the bottom 60% saw savings shrink. This is somewhat unusual for a normal recession. It’s also why some economists are expecting to see some bump from pent up demand from people just waiting for it to be safe to travel and spend money on leisure activities. I would assume that WDW‘s primary target customer is that top 20% of earners and also the next 20%. That’s not to say people in the bottom half of earners don’t go to WDW but they may not be the top target. If the vaccine rollout is successful and on schedule it’s possible WDW sees some kind of bump this summer from that pent up demand. I’m sure that’s the hope anyway. It will be interesting to see how it all plays out.

Makes sense. The high earners were probably less likely to be impacted by job losses, but due to the pandemic would have less to spend money one.

 

[Touchdown]

Makes sense. The high earners were probably less likely to be impacted by job losses, but due to the pandemic would have less to spend money one.

I’m one of those people, with my entertainment budget severely limited for a year all of that money went to paying off the rest of my education loans (which I was planning to and on track to complete in 2020) and paid off my new car loan (not planned.)

 

[Lilofan]

I’m one of those people, with my entertainment budget severely limited for a year all of that money went to paying off the rest of my education loans (which I was planning to and on track to complete in 2020) and paid off my new car loan (not planned.)

Nothing wrong about paying off your debts. Good idea to pay it off now.

 

[mmascari]

I think you’re too focused on cheating. We can’t make decisions based on people who might cheat. Just adopt a reasonable system and it shouldn’t be that much of an issue.

Say, continue to require mitigation efforts until community spread is under control. Where we've reduced the spread to a manageable level and are able to track and isolate outbreaks? Sounds reasonable and simple, shouldn’t be an issue. There’s also no dependency on how it’s achieved.


All the vaccine passport talk is about how using one could grant exceptions to other mitigation efforts while community spread is NOT under control. Generally a bad idea.

Let’s pretend that immediately everyone who is 30 days after last dose is given a special hat, day glow orange, impossible to counterfeit or transfer. Let’s grant them all exemptions from masks, distancing, or even being counted as part of any capacity restriction. Say WDW uses 40% capacity pus as many orange hats until 100%. Rides slot orange hats in between others, since they’re exempt from all restrictions.

If community spread is high, this means those exempt will be exposed to lots of virus, mutating all the time. They’ll be safe from most, but a “lucky” mutation might infect them, in that 5% exposure or change. Replicate and spread, rendering the vaccine useless as this variant supplants the current one.

If community spread is low, those exempt and everyone else will be exposed to very little virus. Less exposure means less mutation going on, less chance for a “lucky” one. Better chance that it’s isolated instead of spread. Bonus, since spread is low, the orange hats don’t need special exemption, everyone can mitigate less.

 

[Chi84]

@mmascari: I don't know what you mean by "all the talk." Most of what I've read and heard about vaccine requirements is pretty sensible. Most people will get vaccinated because they want to, while others will do so to comply with a requirement. None of the articles I've read about vaccine requirements suggest that they would be implemented while community spread is out of control so I'm not sure where that is coming from. And you completely lost me with the orange hats; it would make no sense to exempt someone from mitigation efforts 30 days after the second dose while community spread is out of control.

 

[DCBaker]

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

I think you’re too focused on cheating. We can’t make decisions based on people who might cheat. Just adopt a reasonable system and it shouldn’t be that much of an issue.

Totally...

If we waste our time trying to out game the scammers...nothing ever gets done

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

There is no more liberated group on the planet now than the CDC

 

[mmascari]

@mmascari: I don't know what you mean by "all the talk." Most of what I've read and heard about vaccine requirements is pretty sensible. Most people will get vaccinated because they want to, while others will do so to comply with a requirement. None of the articles I've read about vaccine requirements suggest that they would be implemented while community spread is out of control so I'm not sure where that is coming from. And you completely lost me with the orange hats; it would make no sense to exempt someone from mitigation efforts 30 days after the second dose while community spread is out of control.

What’s the point of a COVID passport or “only vaccinated people” requirement if it’s not to be exempt from mitigations while spread is still high?

Those posts are not about encouraging people to get vaccinated. They’re about people getting special treatment once they are.

The Orange hat, after “let’s pretend” was an example of a perfect vaccine passport, easily identifiable, impossible to fake. A way to think through how and what that special treatment may mean while not focusing on the identification and documentation issues. As if those didn’t exist, even though they clearly would.


In just the last 5 pages, how many posts are there where people are talking about being exempt from masks or travel restrictions or other activities once they’re personally vaccinated or if only vaccinated people are allowed the activity, no matter the current community spread. If community spread is low, there’s no need for only vaccinated requirements, so none of those posts can mean only once spread is low.

There’s a few posts mixed in that say “only vaccinated and low spread”, but that’s redundant then. They could just say “low spread”. So either the poster doesn’t really mean “and low spread”, or they’re super confused. It’s like saying “don’t drive in snow when drunk” when the snow has nothing to do with it, “don’t drive drunk” is already enough alone.


I’ll agree that a COVID passport for previously restricted travel, between controllable areas is probably a good idea. International travel fits this pattern. That works because community spread levels may be different internationally. But within the US, and to just activities, it’s a poor concept and useless if not dangerous. Community spread levels are not different enough between states with no checkpoints and certainly not between inside and outside a business. We’re not going to suddenly have FL checkpoint and customs checking passports for travelers from other states. That would be a HUGE issue.

 

[GoofGoof]

Say, continue to require mitigation efforts until community spread is under control. Where we've reduced the spread to a manageable level and are able to track and isolate outbreaks? Sounds reasonable and simple, shouldn’t be an issue. There’s also no dependency on how it’s achieved.


All the vaccine passport talk is about how using one could grant exceptions to other mitigation efforts while community spread is NOT under control. Generally a bad idea.

Let’s pretend that immediately everyone who is 30 days after last dose is given a special hat, day glow orange, impossible to counterfeit or transfer. Let’s grant them all exemptions from masks, distancing, or even being counted as part of any capacity restriction. Say WDW uses 40% capacity pus as many orange hats until 100%. Rides slot orange hats in between others, since they’re exempt from all restrictions.

If community spread is high, this means those exempt will be exposed to lots of virus, mutating all the time. They’ll be safe from most, but a “lucky” mutation might infect them, in that 5% exposure or change. Replicate and spread, rendering the vaccine useless as this variant supplants the current one.

If community spread is low, those exempt and everyone else will be exposed to very little virus. Less exposure means less mutation going on, less chance for a “lucky” one. Better chance that it’s isolated instead of spread. Bonus, since spread is low, the orange hats don’t need special exemption, everyone can mitigate less.

There’s no shot anyone does this. I agree with your notion that mitigation efforts only go away after spread drops. That will hopefully be some time this summer. Vaccine passports only apply as an alternative should the full vaccine rollout fail. In a simple example if only 60% of the US population ends up getting the vaccine and as a result community spread is still rampant in October it may make some sense for Disney to require proof of vaccination in order to get rid of capacity limits and bring back large group gatherings like fireworks and parades. It makes less sense for WDW and more sense for one time events like an NBA game or and NFL game or a concert. You want large crowds of people to gather safely, require they all be vaccinated. Same logic applies that it won’t happen unless herd immunity fails. The NFL would rather have community spread low enough that anyone who wants can attend a game (plan A) vs only those vaccinated (plan B).

 

[GoofGoof]

What’s the point of a COVID passport or “only vaccinated people” requirement if it’s not to be exempt from mitigations while spread is still high?

Those posts are not about encouraging people to get vaccinated. They’re about people getting special treatment once they are.

The Orange hat, after “let’s pretend” was an example of a perfect vaccine passport, easily identifiable, impossible to fake. A way to think through how and what that special treatment may mean while not focusing on the identification and documentation issues. As if those didn’t exist, even though they clearly would.


In just the last 5 pages, how many posts are there where people are talking about being exempt from masks or travel restrictions or other activities once they’re personally vaccinated or if only vaccinated people are allowed the activity, no matter the current community spread. If community spread is low, there’s no need for only vaccinated requirements, so none of those posts can mean only once spread is low.

There’s a few posts mixed in that say “only vaccinated and low spread”, but that’s redundant then. They could just say “low spread”. So either the poster doesn’t really mean “and low spread”, or they’re super confused. It’s like saying “don’t drive in snow when drunk” when the snow has nothing to do with it, “don’t drive drunk” is already enough alone.


I’ll agree that a COVID passport for previously restricted travel, between controllable areas is probably a good idea. International travel fits this pattern. That works because community spread levels may be different internationally. But within the US, and to just activities, it’s a poor concept and useless if not dangerous. Community spread levels are not different enough between states with no checkpoints and certainly not between inside and outside a business. We’re not going to suddenly have FL checkpoint and customs checking passports for travelers from other states. That would be a HUGE issue.

There are a handful of people saying they want to be exempt from Covid restrictions once they are personally immune. At least one poster a few pages back who said they were losing the mask as soon as they get their 2nd shot, but those people are kidding themselves. Businesses can continue to require anything they want and at a minimum they will be very unlikely to remove them until all of their workers are eligible to be vaccinated and have had a chance to go. For Disney they agreed with the unions on the basic mitigation efforts so until those workers are made safe by the vaccine I don’t see any way they allow anyone in without masks and distancing and capacity limits.

For cruise lines (especially those with excursions in foreign countries) and most international flights it makes sense to require proof of vaccination both ways and/or a negative Covid test. With these new variants popping up it may not be enough to have proof of vaccine.

 

[Chi84]

What’s the point of a COVID passport or “only vaccinated people” requirement if it’s not to be exempt from mitigations while spread is still high?

Those posts are not about encouraging people to get vaccinated. They’re about people getting special treatment once they are.

The Orange hat, after “let’s pretend” was an example of a perfect vaccine passport, easily identifiable, impossible to fake. A way to think through how and what that special treatment may mean while not focusing on the identification and documentation issues. As if those didn’t exist, even though they clearly would.


In just the last 5 pages, how many posts are there where people are talking about being exempt from masks or travel restrictions or other activities once they’re personally vaccinated or if only vaccinated people are allowed the activity, no matter the current community spread. If community spread is low, there’s no need for only vaccinated requirements, so none of those posts can mean only once spread is low.

There’s a few posts mixed in that say “only vaccinated and low spread”, but that’s redundant then. They could just say “low spread”. So either the poster doesn’t really mean “and low spread”, or they’re super confused. It’s like saying “don’t drive in snow when drunk” when the snow has nothing to do with it, “don’t drive drunk” is already enough alone.


I’ll agree that a COVID passport for previously restricted travel, between controllable areas is probably a good idea. International travel fits this pattern. That works because community spread levels may be different internationally. But within the US, and to just activities, it’s a poor concept and useless if not dangerous. Community spread levels are not different enough between states with no checkpoints and certainly not between inside and outside a business. We’re not going to suddenly have FL checkpoint and customs checking passports for travelers from other states. That would be a HUGE issue.

From what I've read, the point of vaccination requirements would be to help people get over their reluctance to visit packed venues again, like sports events, theme parks, cruises, air travel, etc. I suspect this reluctance is not going to end the minute spread is low, and masks alone aren't going to make people feel that much safer if they're right next to one another or where masks can't be worn, such as in a cruise ship dining room. I haven't read anything suggesting vaccination requirements would be implemented while the spread is still high.

As far as "Those posts are not about encouraging people to get vaccinated. They're about people getting special treatment once they are," what posts are you talking about? I've gone back 5 pages as you asked (actually 10), and the only posts mentioning cheating or special treatment for vaccinated people are your posts. I haven't seen a single one that talks about "being exempt from masks or travel restrictions or other activities once they're personally vaccinated or if only vaccinated people are allowed the activity." There are a lot of COVID threads, maybe you're referring to one I haven't seen. In any event, I'm talking about what medical and legal experts are saying about the possibility of requirements, not about what people are posting here.

 

[GimpYancIent]

There are a handful of people saying they want to be exempt from Covid restrictions once they are personally immune. At least one poster a few pages back who said they were losing the mask as soon as they get their 2nd shot, but those people are kidding themselves. Businesses can continue to require anything they want and at a minimum they will be very unlikely to remove them until all of their workers are eligible to be vaccinated and have had a chance to go. For Disney they agreed with the unions on the basic mitigation efforts so until those workers are made safe by the vaccine I don’t see any way they allow anyone in without masks and distancing and capacity limits.

For cruise lines (especially those with excursions in foreign countries) and most international flights it makes sense to require proof of vaccination both ways and/or a negative Covid test. With these new variants popping up it may not be enough to have proof of vaccine.

Too many if's and's + butts about "immunity. How long it lasts, the level of immunity, to what variant etc. The vaccine passport idea is nice for international travel or boarding floating Petri dishes, sorry, I mean Cruise Ships. For interstate travel and day to day activities it is prudent, commons sense, only reasonable to maintain the facemask and other protocols currently in place. When anyone can go to Walgreens, CVS or any other such location and receive the COVID19 vaccine on request without all the red tape currently in place and the infection numbers actually decline the protocols can then be reviewed.

 

[sbunit]

I think one of the points that isn’t mentioned often (and if it has been I apologize I just can’t keep up with these thread on a regular basis) is the fair possibility that restrictions remain in place even after herd immunity is reached due to the fact that we still do not know just how long immunity lasts before we need a booster. Although I dread the thought I don’t think it’s far fetched that the powers at be keep mask requirements and social distancing into 2022 until they figure out the longevity of the vaccine’s immunity so as not to risk another possible spike over the 2021-2022 winter season. I don’t think it’s very likely but I don’t think it’s far fetched either.
I was original hopeful of a timeline that produced “back to normal” by the fall of 2021. How things are transpiring has made me change my thinking to possibly a spring of 2021 (with much improvements and relaxing of restraints in between but not fully back to normal). Hopefully I’m wrong

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

From what I've read, the point of vaccination requirements would be to help people get over their reluctance to visit packed venues again, like sports events, theme parks, cruises, air travel, etc. I suspect this reluctance is not going to end the minute spread is low, and masks alone aren't going to make people feel that much safer if they're right next to one another or where masks can't be worn, such as in a cruise ship dining room. I haven't read anything suggesting vaccination requirements would be implemented while the spread is still high.

As far as "Those posts are not about encouraging people to get vaccinated. They're about people getting special treatment once they are," what posts are you talking about? I've gone back 5 pages as you asked (actually 10), and the only posts mentioning cheating or special treatment for vaccinated people are your posts. I haven't seen a single one that talks about "being exempt from masks or travel restrictions or other activities once they're personally vaccinated or if only vaccinated people are allowed the activity." There are a lot of COVID threads, maybe you're referring to one I haven't seen. In any event, I'm talking about what medical and legal experts are saying about the possibility of requirements, not about what people are posting here.

I see it building it.

I’ll be a tad blunt (for a change):

If yuh want go to wdw when it’s 95 degrees and you can’t hack it in a mask: order a peloton NOW and start riding the Portugal mountains series...get your lungs in shape.

 

[mmascari]

There’s no shot anyone does this. I agree with your notion that mitigation efforts only go away after spread drops. That will hopefully be some time this summer.

Agree.

Vaccine passports only apply as an alternative should the full vaccine rollout fail. In a simple example if only 60% of the US population ends up getting the vaccine and as a result community spread is still rampant in October it may make some sense for Disney to require proof of vaccination in order to get rid of capacity limits and bring back large group gatherings like fireworks and parades. It makes less sense for WDW and more sense for one time events like an NBA game or and NFL game or a concert. You want large crowds of people to gather safely, require they all be vaccinated. Same logic applies that it won’t happen unless herd immunity fails. The NFL would rather have community spread low enough that anyone who wants can attend a game (plan A) vs only those vaccinated (plan B).

So if the vaccine fails to reduce community spread for some reason, we should allow people who provide proof of vaccination special privileges of reduced mitigation even though community spread is still high?

This is where I get lost. The second part doesn’t agree with the first.

If the vaccine fails to reduce community spread, we’re kind of screwed, because we’ve failed to reduce spread. We know we’re bad at using other tools to reduce spread enough, so far. Trying to give special rights to some while spread is still high in that scenario is directly the opposite the first statement that nobody does it while spread is high.

And now we’re back to my first post in this sub thread. Whats the value, risk, and who takes the fall when it breaks? If we cannot answer those, there’s even less reason.

I get why Ticketmaster or the NFL want to find a way to increase business, but that doesn’t make it god public health. While it might be good short term, it’ll probably be much worse long term. Just like the entire last year. Kind of like giving out antibiotics like candy starts good, but then leads to resistant bacteria long term.

 

[Touchdown]

I think one of the points that isn’t mentioned often (and if it has been I apologize I just can’t keep up with these thread on a regular basis) is the fair possibility that restrictions remain in place even after herd immunity is reached due to the fact that we still do not know just how long immunity lasts before we need a booster. Although I dread the thought I don’t think it’s far fetched that the powers at be keep mask requirements and social distancing into 2022 until they figure out the longevity of the vaccine’s immunity so as not to risk another possible spike over the 2021-2022 winter season. I don’t think it’s very likely but I don’t think it’s far fetched either.
I was original hopeful of a timeline that produced “back to normal” by the fall of 2021. How things are transpiring has made me change my thinking to possibly a spring of 2021 (with much improvements and relaxing of restraints in between but not fully back to normal). Hopefully I’m wrong

If there isn’t community spread then the virus is not currently replicating in the community. If there is no virus then there is no need for masks and other measures to protect you from said virus. This won’t happen.

 

[mmascari]

I think one of the points that isn’t mentioned often (and if it has been I apologize I just can’t keep up with these thread on a regular basis) is the fair possibility that restrictions remain in place even after herd immunity is reached due to the fact that we still do not know just how long immunity lasts before we need a booster. Although I dread the thought I don’t think it’s far fetched that the powers at be keep mask requirements and social distancing into 2022 until they figure out the longevity of the vaccine’s immunity so as not to risk another possible spike over the 2021-2022 winter season. I don’t think it’s very likely but I don’t think it’s far fetched either.
I was original hopeful of a timeline that produced “back to normal” by the fall of 2021. How things are transpiring has made me change my thinking to possibly a spring of 2021 (with much improvements and relaxing of restraints in between but not fully back to normal). Hopefully I’m wrong

If spread is low, nobody will listen to mitigation. Why would they, spread is low.

The trick will be for public health to stay on top of identification, trace, and isolation if infection shows back up for whatever reason. Could be immunity longevity, could be unvaccinated, or mutation, but doesn’t matter why. These are systems we need to invest support in.