Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Sirwalterraleigh]

At least the J&J will still make it to market. Unlike the recent French vaccine that recently flopped. As mentioned above operation warp speed will approve any vaccine above 50% effectiveness. Its still a win in that regard.

Did your newspaper not get delivered by pony express yet?

 

[GoofGoof]

Still looks more promising.

I’m actually shocked J&J released theirs? It’s limited...is woody so cheap that he couldn’t have paid someone at prizer $10,000 to get the right mix?

Wait...it’s woody...he is

It looks promising but wasn’t tested in S Africa or Brazil. How much lower would the efficacy be? We can’t afford to wait until May or June for a vaccine that may be slightly more effective. 72% is pretty good for the US and no hospitalizations or deaths. If JnJ is available and 100M people get it we get to herd immunity 3 months earlier as a result. If everyone wants to wait for a better vaccine we could lose the window. A variant could come along anytime that defeats the mRNA vaccines too. Now is the time to move as fast as possible.

 

[GoofGoof]

I will probably end up getting the Pfizer vaccine just based on timing and approval in my country. But if J&J was available id be more than happy to get it. More people might hold out for the J&J vaccine simply because its a single dose which is much more appealing to a lot people. Convincing people to get one dose is a lot easier than convincing them to get two.

It’s a great result. Not sure why people in this country insist on making everything hard.

 

[dreday3]

It looks promising but wasn’t tested in S Africa or Brazil. How much lower would the efficacy be? We can’t afford to wait until May or June for a vaccine that may be slightly more effective. 72% is pretty good for the US and no hospitalizations or deaths. If JnJ is available and 100M people get it we get to herd immunity 3 months earlier as a result. If everyone wants to wait for a better vaccine we could lose the window. A variant could come along anytime that defeats the mRNA vaccines too. Now is the time to move as fast as possible.

We all have to remember, in the history of viruses, none of them have mutated to become more deadly. A virus wants to live and replicate. In order to do that, it will become easier to spread, but not more deadly.
The reason SARS was easier to eradicate was because it was so deadly. The deadlier it is, the easier to trace and contain.

My point being, let us not all freak out over variants. In time, they will be taken care of with boosters, perhaps every year.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

It looks promising but wasn’t tested in S Africa or Brazil. How much lower would the efficacy be? We can’t afford to wait until May or June for a vaccine that may be slightly more effective. 72% is pretty good for the US and no hospitalizations or deaths. If JnJ is available and 100M people get it we get to herd immunity 3 months earlier as a result. If everyone wants to wait for a better vaccine we could lose the window. A variant could come along anytime that defeats the mRNA vaccines too. Now is the time to move as fast as possible.

I’d rather they work an arrangement for the other pharma to make the better vax...

Don’t lose the momentum...but that’s just me

 

[Disney Experience]

Covid vaccines: Outrage after casino boss jumps queue for jabs

Rod Baker and his wife travelled to a remote region and posed as local workers to get the jab.

www.bbc.com

 

[GoofGoof]

I’d rather they work an arrangement for the other pharma to make the better vax...

Don’t lose the momentum...but that’s just me

We have 200M more doses of Pfizer and Moderna coming in Q3 so there’s no need to make an arrangement. The recent news on the French pharma company agreeing to manufacture some vaccine for a competitor is nice but they said they should have the facility and vaccine production up by end of summer. There is no way for JnJ to manufacture the Pfizer vaccine and start rolling out doses next week or next month. They would be hard pressed to ramp up by June or July when Pfizer and Moderna will already be rolling out their third 100M doses.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We all have to remember, in the history of viruses, none of them have mutated to become more deadly. A virus wants to live and replicate. In order to do that, it will become easier to spread, but not more deadly.
The reason SARS was easier to eradicate was because it was so deadly. The deadlier it is, the easier to trace and contain.

My point being, let us not all freak out over variants. In time, they will be taken care of with boosters, perhaps every year.

Viruses don’t have a mind...but that doesn’t mean they can’t end up more lethal on a variant.

The best way to “end” this is to kill the transmission and that can come if the vaccines get out at good speed.
It also buys time to develop more effectives against...down the road. The world is still mostly ground to a halt...we forget.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

We have 200M more doses of Pfizer and Moderna coming in Q3 so there’s no need to make an arrangement. The recent news on the French pharma company agreeing to manufacture some vaccine for a competitor is nice but they said they should have the facility and vaccine production up by end of summer. There is no way for JnJ to manufacture the Pfizer vaccine and start rolling out doses next week or next month. They would be hard pressed to ramp up by June or July when Pfizer and Moderna will already be rolling out their third 100M doses.

Yeah...I’m just not that big on this one. Seems
More like the “stay at home”
Variant

 

[GoofGoof]

We all have to remember, in the history of viruses, none of them have mutated to become more deadly. A virus wants to live and replicate. In order to do that, it will become easier to spread, but not more deadly.
The reason SARS was easier to eradicate was because it was so deadly. The deadlier it is, the easier to trace and contain.

My point being, let us not all freak out over variants. In time, they will be taken care of with boosters, perhaps every year.

I’m not freaking out over variants, but time is a big concern here. Already the S African variant is more resistent to our current vaccines. If we wait until the summer to finish vaccinating people because they want only Pfizer or Moderna then it leaves the door open for another variant or 2 to come along and cause issues.

Even without a new variant waiting could mean we push herd immunity from May/June to Aug/Sep and that means more deaths, more serious illness and more months of economic misery. Getting the vaccine rolled out as fast as possible is the best thing for public health and the economy.

 

[dreday3]

Viruses don’t have a mind...but that doesn’t mean they can’t end up more lethal on a variant.

The best way to “end” this is to kill the transmission and that can come if the vaccines get out at good speed.
It also buys time to develop more effectives against...down the road. The world is still mostly ground to a halt...we forget.

Of course they don't have a mind. But all you have to do is read the history of viruses. They don't normally mutate to be deadlier. That would make it easier to "kill" the virus.

Obviously end game is to get as many vaccinated as possible before even more new variants come about.

I don't know. I'm just so tired of it all. Everyday you wake up to good news, then someone comes along and tempers it with bad news.

Argh. I'm going to watch WandaVision.

 

[JAKECOTCenter]

My sort of timeline for the lifting of restrictions at the parks:

Rest of Winter: Epcot monorail could maybe return

Spring: Probably distancing on rides relaxed, more restaurants open, Stretching Room returns, capacity increases slightly

Summer: Possible modified stage shows return, hours extended near pre-pandemic levels

Fall: Maybe parades return(?), capacity 50-75 percent, 50th celebration TBD

Winter 2021/2: Normal operations with masks still enforced, meet and greets return perhaps modified and shorter

Masks might be gone for good in 2022 with 100 percent capacity and upcharge events back

 

[Disney Experience]

Of course they don't have a mind. But all you have to do is read the history of viruses. They don't normally mutate to be deadlier. That would make it easier to "kill" the virus.

Obviously end game is to get as many vaccinated as possible before even more new variants come about.

I don't know. I'm just so tired of it all. Everyday you wake up to good news, then someone comes along and tempers it with bad news.

Argh. I'm going to watch WandaVision.

If the mutation makes it more deadly but otherwise does not increase or decrease the transmission rate than that would not be a negative nor positive for the virus.

I used to date a lady with a Phd in evolutionary biology, but even they have subspecialties. One thing I learned from her is that they did not respect theoretical biologists claiming expertise in evolutionary biology. So my speculations on the evolutionary mutations of a virus would rate even lower than a theoretical biologist's. But I cannot help but speculate.

A mutation that kills too soon would decrease transmission, and would have a hard time fighting natural selection.

Some non-viruses such as the Anthrax bacteria actually depend on host death as part of their life cycle. One of the rare cases that something wants the host to die..at some point.

But I would agree that most variations that persist would have a good transmission factor, and if host death interfered with that it would lose to the competition.

 

[Polkadotdress]

Every time I see Governor Desantis arrive for a press conference or something, he wears a mask even though he hasn't done a mandate. He's never said don't wear one and the Florida Department of Health has recommended them since the CDC started to. He's just said that he doesn't believe in mandates as a way to get compliance.

Except that time he went to that Trump rally here in FL, and was mask-free, running along the front edge of the crowds, giving people high-5's.

Oh, and also that time he went to the Edgewater/Niceville football game, and was mask-free, in the mostly mask-less stadium.

Shall I go on?

 

[TrainsOfDisney]

However, with respect to Australia and New Zealand. Being islands, it is possible to completely restrict the borders

Australia is a continent.

 

[BrianLo]

Point is: Why not require masks for the tens of thousands of annual seasonal flu deaths?
Are tens of thousands of deaths not enough?
Don't people care?
At what death rate do we mandate masks?

I'm so glad you agree! Kids have never been healthier. We've totally wiped out the croup, bronchiolitis, influenza and asthma seasons this year. There has been a huge benefit to health and wellness at fairly minimal cost. It's an easy and cheap clothing accessory and people have largely grown used to it.

A strong case is masks should be a thing during cough and cold seasons continuing into the future.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If the mutation makes it more deadly but otherwise does not increase or decrease the transmission rate than that would not be a negative nor positive for the virus.

I used to date a lady with a Phd in evolutionary biology, but even they have subspecialties. One thing I learned from her is that they did not respect theoretical biologists claiming expertise in evolutionary biology. So my speculations on the evolutionary mutations of a virus would rate even lower than a theoretical biologist's. But I cannot help but speculate.

A mutation that kills too soon would decrease transmission, and would have a hard time fighting natural selection.

Some non-viruses such as the Anthrax bacteria actually depend on host death as part of their life cycle. One of the rare cases that something wants the host to die..at some point.

But I would agree that most variations that persist would have a good transmission factor, and if host death interfered with that it would lose to the competition.

Ebola did that...good for us.

I think it’s difficult to make blanket proclamation on microbiology...
...but people are trying

Except that time he went to that Trump rally here in FL, and was mask-free, running along the front edge of the crowds, giving people high-5's.

Oh, and also that time he went to the Edgewater/Niceville football game, and was mask-free, in the mostly mask-less stadium.

Shall I go on?

...pay no attention to the man behind the tanning booth...

 

[GoofGoof]

My sort of timeline for the lifting of restrictions at the parks:

Rest of Winter: Epcot monorail could maybe return

Spring: Probably distancing on rides relaxed, more restaurants open, Stretching Room returns, capacity increases slightly

Summer: Possible modified stage shows return, hours extended near pre-pandemic levels

Fall: Maybe parades return(?), capacity 50-75 percent, 50th celebration TBD

Winter 2021/2: Normal operations with masks still enforced, meet and greets return perhaps modified and shorter

Masks might be gone for good in 2022 with 100 percent capacity and upcharge events back

I think it could go even faster depending on vaccine rollout.

• If we really get the vaccines as targeted by the manufactures and if enough people take them we should have enough doses available for all adults in the US to have one by the end of May/June. If that’s the case I could see the summer being more open. I think for now it’s small things like return of the water park and additional ride capacity from plexiglass or less distancing on ride vehicles. This started already.
• If cases trend down from now until around May I could see a continued reduction of ride distancing and possible openimg of some shows. A distanced Fantasmic, maybe Lion King and possibly a nighttime show or 2.
• If things continue to get better and the vaccine is available to all adults and some kids by June I could see the next step being further increases in park capacity and less restrictions on transport. Essentially saying with masks and people not being together for more than 15 mins distancing can be relaxed. That should open most attractions, transport and I think by then summer demand will pick up as most guests are vaccinated.
• Some time during the summer the remaining attractions can return and if we truly reach herd immunity most dining can return as well as the end of masks being required.

I think by Oct 1 the parks could be back to mostly normal, but I also think most restrictions will be loosened or gone some time over the summer. All depends on vaccine rollout and acceptance. I wouldn’t book a Spring Break trip or one in May and expect a return to normal, but Jun-Aug are looking more promising and fall looks pretty good. All just my speculation. I know some people get triggered over discussions of what if’s and unknowns. Lots of variables, too hard to know anything for certain.

 

[dreday3]

I'm so glad you agree! Kids have never been healthier. We've totally wiped out the croup, bronchiolitis, influenza and asthma seasons this year. There has been a huge benefit to health and wellness at fairly minimal cost. It's an easy and cheap clothing accessory and people have largely grown used to it.

A strong case is masks should be a thing during cough and cold seasons continuing into the future.

Speaking of a general time after the Covid health emergency is "over" - people should certainly continue to wear masks whenever they want. And I bet more people will. We certainly will if we are sick with a cold.

But they should no longer be mandated or required.

Really, the best would be if people wear masks when they are sick, here on out. I would be on board with that. But again, it shouldn't be required. (Like if I'm not sick, I'd rather not be wearing a masking at Disney in 90 degree heat.) I just hope people would do it!

 

[BrianLo]

Speaking of a general time after the Covid health emergency is "over" - people should certainly continue to wear masks whenever they want. And I bet more people will. We certainly will if we are sick with a cold.

But they should no longer be mandated or required.

Yes I will say before the adults throw a temper tantrum that I am sure they will not be mandated forever-more.

But I really think social pressure to mask up if you have a cold could be a positive societal change. It's bad for business, but I am serious, it's really made a huge difference to paediatric morbidity this year.

If anything people will learn that it shouldn't be "normal" to slober all over your friends and give them your viruses. I think we pretty much were all historically guilty of this. Most of us practiced presenteeism.