Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Touchdown]

So, a doctor did a sort of COVID vaccine symposium at work today via zoom (of course). He alarmed me, saying that the vaccine may not be able to thwart variants. Because of that, and also because of the imperfect efficacy (which he said applies to vaccines in general), we will need to wear masks long after we get the vaccine. He said a year, at the least. I guess since the successful vaccines only have about 7 months of data, there are still a lot of unknowns. I guarantee you that I'm still not going to Disney until 2023.

The masks will go away when community spread does, for instance no one in New Zealand is wearing masks, it has nothing to do directly with the vaccines. When our case numbers nationally get to a certain level, the masks will go away. I still think it will happen in fall 2021. As I posted yesterday, cases are falling around the world, and everyday we vaccinate more people (making them far less likely to get Covid.). By this summer we will have on hand enough vaccines with just Moderna and Pfizer to vaccinate 3 million Americans, which is one million more people then the entire <18 population. Fall is realistic to ending community spread, remember both vaccines are effective against all known varients currently.

 

[GoofGoof]

@GoofGoof my purpose wasn't to go against COVID mitigation; but now that we know what we did for COVID can pummel the flu season, I think it's reasonable to ask what tradeoffs people are and aren't ok with. otherwise annually, we are leaving lives on the table so to speak, even with a flu shot.

It’s not about preventing all deaths. It’s a worldwide pandemic. We need and are reacting different than normal deaths from illness. Once Covid is under control and vaccines and treatments are available it’s easy to see that restrictions won’t be necessary. I can’t say for sure, but it seems likely that life will go on. No reason to believe we will continue with restrictions to save every life.

 

[jmp85]

Oh Disney wanted me (They emailed me) to be involved in a paid 90 minute survey. I had to answer numerous questions to prequalify. When it asked if I was posted a lot on a Disney board. I answered yes (i.e. I do that here only). Right after answering that it said I do not qualify, which is what I expected would be the response.

My life is busy as it is, so no loss for me (well technically $150 they would have given me).

Can you reply and give them my email? I'll do it for $150 gift card towards chicken tenders in the parks.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

The masks will go away when community spread does, for instance no one in New Zealand is wearing masks, it has nothing to do directly with the vaccines. When our case numbers nationally get to a certain level, the masks will go away. I still think it will happen in fall 2021. As I posted yesterday, cases are falling around the world, and everyday we vaccinate more people (making them far less likely to get Covid.). By this summer we will have on hand enough vaccines with just Moderna and Pfizer to vaccinate 3 million Americans, which is one million more people then the entire <18 population. Fall is realistic to ending community spread, remember both vaccines are effective against all known varients currently.

Think you forgot a zero or two in there

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Oh Disney wanted me (They emailed me) to be involved in a paid 90 minute survey. I had to answer numerous questions to prequalify. When it asked if I was posted a lot on a Disney board. I answered yes (i.e. I do that here only). Right after answering that it said I do not qualify, which is what I expected would be the response.

My life is busy as it is, so no loss for me (well technically $150 they would have given me).

...lie next time

 

[GoofGoof]

I agree with you in a general sense. I will add that lowering the speed limit for 2-3 days until the roads clear has very little economic or societal downside. You and I agree that it's a sensible, short-term solution.

But we do not approach year-round Interstate driving laws with a "let's get to 0 Interstate driving deaths at all costs" mentality.

Bringing it back to the virus, many people (myself included) believe that the costs of the restrictions are not being talked about enough.

If a snow storm lasted a year we would limit speed limits for a year. We can’t assume because the timeframe is too long that the restrictions aren’t necessary. Many people the world over live in war zones and with other situations that last much longer than a few days. It’s sad to see that we as Americans can’t stomach a little hardship for a few months or a year. I hate having to live like this, but it’s for the greater good. I sacrifice now so so many others and maybe myself can go back to life as normal. It’s a worthwhile sacrifice for me.

 

[GoofGoof]

We know that unemployment sky rocketed from 3.7% to 14.7% when the restrictions started in Spring 2020.
We know that unemployment is correlated with drug addiction, suicide, child abuse/neglect, and the long-term after effects of these.

Google:
unemployment and drug addiction
unemployment and suicide
unemployment and child abuse

And that's just what we know.

We don't know how many people had heart attacks and developed cancer as a result of stress caused by the restrictions. We don't know even know the long-term effects of prolonged mask wearing on kids who have to wear them 8 hours a day at school, 180 days a year - both physically and mentally. Maybe they'll be fine in the long run, but maybe some won't.

We can't just turn a blind eye to the costs these restrictions carry with them. Not if we expect to make the best and most informed decisions about how to move forward.

What would the unemployment rate be with no restrictions? Do you think restaurants and airlines and tourist destinations and restaurants would be doing just fine. No, unemployment is mostly the result of the pandemic, not just restrictions. If it was purely restrictions FL unemployment would be unchanged from pre-pandemic but we all know that’s not true. Despite a complete lack of government restrictions in FL the unemployment situation is really bad.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

If a snow storm lasted a year we would limit speed limits for a year. We can’t assume because the timeframe is too long that the restrictions aren’t necessary. Many people the world over live in war zones and with other situations that last much longer than a few days. It’s sad to see that we as Americans can’t stomach a little hardship for a few months or a year. I hate having to live like this, but it’s for the greater good. I sacrifice now so so many others and maybe myself can go back to life as normal. It’s a worthwhile sacrifice for me.

Boom!!

...shakalakalakalaka

 

[Touchdown]

Think you forgot a zero or two in there

300 million thanks

 

[Bill in Atlanta]

Is anyone asking for that? Anyone at all?

All those safety measures for vehicle/road safety have the 2018 death per 100,000 population down to 11.18 according to Wikipedia. From a high of 29.36 in 1937, and from 25.67 in 1970.

With 410,000 deaths in less than a year and 330,000,000 people that's 124.24 per 100,0000. There's a lot of distance between 124.24 and either 29.36 or 11.18.

Over the last 10 months, I have seen and heard countless arguments in favor of tight restrictions without any consideration of what they would cost economically and socially. I have seen governors get on TV and justify new closures by citing virus death statistics while failing to mention what hardship and even loss of life those closures will cause. I have seen the media breathlessly report on these statistics, while running precious few stories about the cost of the restrictions. I think we can all agree that the media has erred on the side of doom and gloom, rather than cost/benefit analysis of government restrictions.

 

[Parker in NYC]

Over the last 10 months, I have seen and heard countless arguments in favor of tight restrictions without any consideration of what they would cost economically and socially. I have seen governors get on TV and justify new closures by citing virus death statistics while failing to mention what hardship and even loss of life those closures will cause. I have seen the media breathlessly report on these statistics, while running precious few stories about the cost of the restrictions. I think we can all agree that the media has erred on the side of doom and gloom, rather than cost/benefit analysis of government restrictions.

Over the last 10 months, I have seen countless elected officials who haven't given a darn about the hardship and loss of life that occurred either because of closures or not. All I've heard about is numbers. Empty numbers. Those don't tell a story.

 

[MaryJaneP]

1940's rationing, 2020 entitlement. Which was the greater generation. Imagine if there was a WDW in 1940, would we really be arguing about mask wearing, social distancing, and hand washing as our primary concerns that were limiting our ability to live how we wanted?

 

[Lilofan]

1940's rationing, 2020 entitlement. Which was the greater generation. Imagine if there was a WDW in 1940, would we really be arguing about mask wearing, social distancing, and hand washing as our primary concerns that were limiting our ability to live how we wanted?

Sure, in 1940 write a letter to your elected official. If you are lucky the pigeon air express might deliver the letter in a few months.

 

[GoofGoof]

Over the last 10 months, I have seen and heard countless arguments in favor of tight restrictions without any consideration of what they would cost economically and socially. I have seen governors get on TV and justify new closures by citing virus death statistics while failing to mention what hardship and even loss of life those closures will cause. I have seen the media breathlessly report on these statistics, while running precious few stories about the cost of the restrictions. I think we can all agree that the media has erred on the side of doom and gloom, rather than cost/benefit analysis of government restrictions.

Who wasn’t considering the economy? Why was anything reopened then? If the economy was no concern then we would have went into full lockdown until a vaccine and never opened anything to maximize public health impact. Obviously nobody did that and we all tried to reopen as much as was safe when it was safe. This whole narrative on the economy was false from day 1. People want to do what they want without restrictions which I totally get, but it has little to do with the economy or lost jobs. The best thing for unemployment would have been to reduce cases and hospitalizations similar to Australia and New Zealand. Opening everything and ignoring the virus worked for nobody.

 

[hopemax]

Over the last 10 months, I have seen and heard countless arguments in favor of tight restrictions without any consideration of what they would cost economically and socially. I have seen governors get on TV and justify new closures by citing virus death statistics while failing to mention what hardship and even loss of life those closures will cause. I have seen the media breathlessly report on these statistics, while running precious few stories about the cost of the restrictions. I think we can all agree that the media has erred on the side of doom and gloom, rather than cost/benefit analysis of government restrictions.

I don't believe you. In my state, and the state I grew up in, most states, they are constantly talking about the tug of war between restrictions required to bring the pandemic under some semblance of control and the economic and mental strain those restrictions create. Just because they end up coming down on the side that "the pandemic must be controlled in order for the economic and mental stress to end and so these are the restrictions," doesn't mean they haven't been thinking and talking about the entirety of the situation.

But it makes a quippy, talking point to rail against restrictions and the people who implemented them.

 

[MisterPenguin]

We don't go into vehicle/road safety with a "0 driving deaths at all costs" approach, do we?

And we shouldn't use that approach in any other area of life. Because the restrictions that could get you close to 0 will cause all kinds of problems (even death) in other unforeseen areas.

That's all.

Because we can't compare the two.

Deaths from vehicle accidents don't geometrically climb such that in one month 200 are dead and 10 months later 4,000 are dying every day and will continue to increase.

 

[Chi84]

Fauci, Other Biden COVID-19 Advisers Tout 'Really Encouraging' Vaccine News

Dr. Anthony Fauci also said the administration hoped to be able to start vaccinating children by late spring or summer.

www.npr.org

Dr. Fauci said they expect to start vaccinating children in late spring or early summer. Great news!

 

[dreday3]

So, a doctor did a sort of COVID vaccine symposium at work today via zoom (of course). He alarmed me, saying that the vaccine may not be able to thwart variants. Because of that, and also because of the imperfect efficacy (which he said applies to vaccines in general), we will need to wear masks long after we get the vaccine. He said a year, at the least. I guess since the successful vaccines only have about 7 months of data, there are still a lot of unknowns. I guarantee you that I'm still not going to Disney until 2023.

Stop listening to that doctor. He's not giving the full story. Read about it.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

1940's rationing, 2020 entitlement. Which was the greater generation. Imagine if there was a WDW in 1940, would we really be arguing about mask wearing, social distancing, and hand washing as our primary concerns that were limiting our ability to live how we wanted?

Those people wouldn’t have paid 200% of the price for more crowds/less product in 10 years either...

...I miss them

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

So, a doctor did a sort of COVID vaccine symposium at work today via zoom (of course). He alarmed me, saying that the vaccine may not be able to thwart variants. Because of that, and also because of the imperfect efficacy (which he said applies to vaccines in general), we will need to wear masks long after we get the vaccine. He said a year, at the least. I guess since the successful vaccines only have about 7 months of data, there are still a lot of unknowns. I guarantee you that I'm still not going to Disney until 2023.

He seems more of an alarmist than most of the experts on this...

...and you’re not alarmist at all