Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[mmascari]

I can’t say what’s going on everywhere in the country, but where I live we have the capacity to do many more vaccinations a day. We just need the shots.

In an email last Friday, the Broward County Mayor said they have stopped negotiating with the State to use leftover CARES act funds to increase the capacity to give shots because the capacity without the additional funding exceeds the expected supply. He said they are currently administering around 25,000 doses a week and have the capacity to do over 50,000.

States are saying that they're running out, yet, they have still to deliver half the doses given to them.

Past posters have wondered why are the reported shot usage less than 50% when end points are saying they can get shots in the arm if they are given shots.

Recent anecdotal evidence is that shots are the limiting factor, that site have the ability to administer shots, but do not have the shots.
Yet reported usage is under 50%.

It would seem that reconciling these two conflicting data points would be worthwhile by authorities even if only to increase public confidence.

All of these can be true at the same time. There's nuance, or missing nuance in all of the reporting. It's likely they're not all talking about the same thing.

We like to read these as if there's just one distribution channel. But, it's not that simple. My guess, based on our state and county reporting is that the reporting on "total distributed to states" is a top line number, every dose shipped. While the "states running out" is more likely a "state controls the distribution channel" number. There's an obvious gap there, all the doses the state gave to another entity to distribute. Reports seem to be consistent that those distribution channels are not performing as well. Especially hospitals.

They only schedule what they know will get both doses. So if a county is told only 50 doses a day delivery they have to hold enough back for the 2nd dose =25 people with appointments. They are "running out" of being able to schedule more people because the county has not been allocated more.
My step-dads first dose isn't scheduled until Feb 20th, both his doses in essence already accounted for in Indiana.

This isn't the same everywhere and is very dependent on the state and county. There doesn't appear to be any guideline, so every state and county has it's own plan. Plus every other distribution channel has it's own plan too.

In my county, the county finds out over the weekend how many doses they'll get on Tuesday. Sometimes they don't find out until Monday and it's not consistent. Because of this, they don't schedule much until Monday when they have the numbers. They get two numbers from the state, how many total doses and how many are reserved for second shots. Something like 11,900 doses, 4,600 are for second doses. Then, Monday night the pool of 200,000 who are eligible based on phase try to sign up for those 7,300 spots. Including people who could get it through a different channel but haven't been able to yet. Before the week ends the county will have given out all 11,900 doses and could have done more.

Our governor is particularly upset with the nongovernmental distribution channels, since that seems to be the largest gap for whatever reasons.

 

[GoofGoof]

I sometimes hope that the problem is just that. But I would expect as we approach two months into the ramp up of vaccination that the percent used converges towards a high number, not 50% or less. The reason for the perceived discrepancy of shots delivered vs shots in arms should be something that is understood and publicly reported.50% used without explanation of why it is only 50% is not good public relations.

I think it’s too soon to say. Manufacturing is just ramping up. Neither supplier is at full capacity yet. The number did increase from 30% to around 50% recently. I think it’s very likely to go up more. It almost has to unless daily doses drop. The doses per day are rising recently, not falling. If we were out of capacity to deliver the doses that wouldn’t go up. If we get to 100M doses delivered and the amount used is under 50% then I’d say that’s more cause for concern.

Logistics is tough. In theory if every state used every dose they have today immediately and that number went to 100% used would people really be happy? Not the ones who have an appointment booked tomorrow for their first dose or a second dose booked on Thursday. You can’t have your cake and eat it too. A large number of the unused doses will be used shortly and appointments are already scheduled. We could pivot to a free for all approach where every dose received is sent to a central sight and they open the sight and use them all that day on a first come first serve basis. No appointments, just sit and wait in hopes they have enough that day. What we can’t see is how many unused doses are already allocated for use with near term appointments. If there are doses literally sitting on a shelf somewhere not intended for an appointment or shipment to a site that’s a bigger problem.

 

[GimpYancIent]

I think it’s too soon to say. Manufacturing is just ramping up. Neither supplier is at full capacity yet. The number did increase from 30% to around 50% recently. I think it’s very likely to go up more. It almost has to unless daily doses drop. The doses per day are rising recently, not falling. If we were out of capacity to deliver the doses that wouldn’t go up. If we get to 100M doses delivered and the amount used is under 50% then I’d say that’s more cause for concern.

Logistics is tough. In theory if every state used every dose they have today immediately and that number went to 100% used would people really be happy? Not the ones who have an appointment booked tomorrow for their first dose or a second dose booked on Thursday. You can’t have your cake and eat it too. A large number of the unused doses will be used shortly and appointments are already scheduled. We could pivot to a free for all approach where every dose received is sent to a central sight and they open the sight and use them all that day on a first come first serve basis. No appointments, just sit and wait in hopes they have enough that day. What we can’t see is how many unused doses are already allocated for use with near term appointments. If there are doses literally sitting on a shelf somewhere not intended for an appointment or shipment to a site that’s a bigger problem.

A historic statement rings true yet again!

 

[MaryJaneP]

do we have enough facilities to administer shots? yes
do we have enough staff to administer those shots? yes
do we have enough syringes to administer those shots? yes
do we have enough vaccine to administer those shots? NOPE
do we have enough citizens desiring those shots -
have we administered sufficient vaccinations to enough people to achieve herd immunity -

So where does this "system" fall down?

 

[GoofGoof]

Here’s another way to look at the lag in doses received vs used. If we assume all the doses received this week are used for appointments over the next 7 days, here were the totals from last Tuesday:

Vaccine status for the country via Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker -

"Vaccinations in the U.S. began Dec. 14 with health-care workers, and so far 15.6 million shots have been given, according to a state-by-state tally by Bloomberg and data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. In the last week, an average of 806,716 doses per day were administered."

View attachment 525273

Bloomberg Vaccine Tracker

So there were 15M and change unused vaccines. From Wed to yesterday we used about 7M doses and assuming the pace holds for the next 2 days should be around 10M doses used. So of the 15M unused doses roughly 2/3 of them will have been used within 7 days. Now during this week more doses have arrived. Since the unused went up to 19M doses my assumption is that we will see an uptick in daily vaccinations in the next 7 days. That’s good news. If the same ratio 2/3 applies we should see the rolling 7 day daily avg vaccinations up to 1.8M by the end of this week.

As was pointed out earlier there’s not just one site but thousands and I am greatly oversimplifying the math but the point is as time goes on and deliveries ramp up the raw doses unused should go up but the unused as a percent of total is going to drop. Once shipments stabilize (if they do) then we can probably have less cushion for weekly scheduling and squeeze more doses in each day.

 

[Chomama]

Although people in rural Alabama might be poorly educated, the nurses aren't. They all had to have post high school education and complete nursing school. What you experienced is more from people who believe crazy conspiracy theories than people who lack education.

Distrust in government and reluctance to be vaccinated occurs at both ends of the political spectrum just for different reasons.

I live here. I promise our public schools and for profit colleges cranking out nurses are not educating them about vaccine efficacy nor about critical thinking. The latter is the bigger issue. It may be an issue countrywide but I can only speak to my experience with our community.

 

[Mr Mindcrime]

Change the channel

Change both channels.

 

[matt9112]

I believe it was announced last Monday...that guy got “fired” on
Wednesday..at this rate, That whole
Record will be expunged by st Patty’s day

Drink up

Pretty sure thats canceled...

Sorry buddy.. I stopped reading right after the sentence “ at least Ron desantis was intelligent enough “.Oh boy.

Just remember half the country still disagrees with you. Im glad we handled it the way we did but than again i dont have a posh job where i work from my spare room and make the big bucks. So me going to work and paying my bills is uh yeah a priority for me.

 

[MaryJaneP]

if the second dose of a two-dose vaccination regimen is being held back so the second shot is guaranteed, then there needs to be twice the supply of doses rather than administer the vaccine to only half of the expected recipients. Is this really a math problem?

 

[DCBaker]

Current Florida vaccine report -

 

[DCBaker]

Numbers are out - there were 153 new reported deaths, along with 3 Non-Florida Resident deaths.

 

[hopemax]

Updates from Colorado. Phase 1A is wrapping up. They are at 85% for front line healthcare, 98% of skilled nursing homes (I assume the remainder is groups that are scheduled but not completed and people that have opted out). They moved teachers into 1B. They expect to have 70% of people aged 70+ vaccinated by the end of February. UC Health held their first "large site" test at the baseball stadium on Sunday. They did 1000 people in 2 hours. Next weekend they are planning to do 10,000 people.

Personally, for DH's family in WA, we found out DH's parents are scheduled for 1st shots on Saturday. One set of aunts/uncles went to a mass site and got their first shot, but the site is no longer operating and weren't scheduled for a 2nd shot so are scrambling around to try to figure out how to get their 2nd shot. Another aunt/uncle is scheduled for next week. In FL, my Dad isn't running around calling and is waiting until "things die down." He has registered online for places, and I told him about the VA after @SamusAranX report (he is Vietnam-era). I just want him to get something before they open up eligibility to more people.

I have vaccine envy of all of you that have lucked into "use them or lose them" doses. We know no one, and the grocery stores haven't really started distributing yet, so we can't even ask when we shop. So far, most everything is going through the hospitals and contracted pharmacies, and heath departments. They are working on getting community based, trusted clinics in the high-density/minority/low income communities.

 

[mmascari]

A historic statement rings true yet again!

Except it's mostly not true.

In this specific example of vaccinations given, it's definitely not true.

From our state dashboard:
Total Number of Doses Distributed: 667,275
Number 1st Dose Received: 330,709 (+11,702)
Number 2nd Dose Received: 42,228 (+2,973)

When I total that, I get 372,937 of 667,275 used, 56%.

And, from reporting, we know the county run facilities are using 98% to 100% of the doses they get each week. The county is doing just fine distributing everything it's given and could sign up more appointments if it had the doses.

Other distribution channels must not be distributing as fast.

 

[GoofGoof]

It’s early on but good news from Israel. In their initial study of the first 128K people to receive both shots only 20 have been infected with Covid. 99.99% of people in that initial group vaccinated so far have not been infected. Of the 20 infected all had mild infections and none were hospitalized despite 10 having chronic illness. Again, it’s early on, but good news that the efficacy in the trials is proving out.

Early results on Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine encouraging, says Israeli HMO

Fewer than 0.01% of people who received Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine have contracted the virus more than a week after receiving the second dose, a leading Israeli healthcare provider said on Monday. The preliminary results shared by Israeli HMO Maccabi showed that only 20 people out of some 128,600...

finance.yahoo.com

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

What about “the 50th”?!?

...too soon?

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Except it's mostly not true.

In this specific example of vaccinations given, it's definitely not true.

From our state dashboard:
Total Number of Doses Distributed: 667,275
Number 1st Dose Received: 330,709 (+11,702)
Number 2nd Dose Received: 42,228 (+2,973)

When I total that, I get 372,937 of 667,275 used, 56%.

And, from reporting, we know the county run facilities are using 98% to 100% of the doses they get each week. The county is doing just fine distributing everything it's given and could sign up more appointments if it had the doses.

Other distribution channels must not be distributing as fast.

So you’re saying public health workers are busy administering doses as a matter of public health?

Not selling candy in isle 11 or scheduling it around diabetes maintenance appointments with more of a profit motive?

Hmmm...I better check my Econ notes on that.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

Past posters have wondered why are the reported shot usage less than 50% when end points are saying they can get shots in the arm if they are given shots.

Recent anecdotal evidence is that shots are the limiting factor, that site have the ability to administer shots, but do not have the shots.
Yet reported usage is under 50%.

It would seem that reconciling these two conflicting data points would be worthwhile by authorities even if only to increase public confidence.

I can describe from other logistical system factors that in the days before internet could cause errors, such as:

Time of reporting. I know of a project decades ago that in real-time predicted logistical needs. But getting "truth on the ground" was not as straightforward as it might otherwise seem.
Some of the sources did not give real time reporting to the logistics system, rather they were big reoccurring customers who would locally collect information (with timestamps) and send it weekly. This would skew your realtime estimate of logistical needs unless you model the delay data points coming in. (And no model is perfect).

So I do wonder what the truth on the ground is for covid vaccine delivery and why they cannot get closer to that ground truth in the reported supply and usage of covid vaccines. Knowing if there are problems in getting shots into peoples arms is useful, thinking there are problems in logistics if the real problem is mostly reporting practices is a different problem, with a different (lower) priority. Federal, state. and local administration should understand both their part in the supply chain/logistics and their part in providing timely and sufficient information on the supply chain/logistics.

If only they passed a major health care act in say...2010...that called for integrated digital records/data?
...and perhaps if they had...it wouldn’t have been complained about every day since and had funding/implementation challenges mucking it all up?

Oh well...spitballing.

 

[Kevin_W]

It’s early on but good news from Israel. In their initial study of the first 128K people to receive both shots only 20 have been infected with Covid. 99.99% effective so far.

Good news. I'm sure you know this, but that's not how they would calculate efficacy, unless all 128k of those people were exposed to Covid. You would have to compare how that 20 looks vs. 128,000 unvaccinated people.

 

[Kevin_W]

Actually, I was curious, so just looked up the stats for Israel. Over the past 2 weeks, ~106,000 people have gotten Covid. Which works out to 1500 per 128,000. I don't know if 2 weeks is the right time frame, but 1500 vs 20 looks very good. Even half of that looks good.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Pretty sure thats canceled...


Just remember half the country still disagrees with you. Im glad we handled it the way we did but than again i dont have a posh job where i work from my spare room and make the big bucks. So me going to work and paying my bills is uh yeah a priority for me.

It’s a priority for myself and family also. Always wanted that posh job but it never worked out.