Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Chomama]

Interesting article on a survey around the prospects of a travel boom in 2021. Some highlights:

• Only 14% of Americans have booked out of state travel so far for 2021
• 50% of those surveyed said they plan to travel out of state within 6 months of vaccination
• 61% said they would not feel comfortable traveling without the shot
• Almost 2/3 of families earning $100K+ Plan to travel compared to only 37% making under $50K
• 68% of those surveyed say they would eat out more after vaccination

For Disney that 2/3 number is huge if it holds true since that is a big demographic for them. It also skews by age with younger, lower income workers tending to me more impacted by layoffs and have less money saved. Either way, it seems Disney is heavily dependent on an efficient vaccine rollout program to jump start the parks. The longer that gets delayed the less of a summer they have.

2021 American travel boom less likely than previously thought, survey finds

A new poll from Yahoo Finance and The Harris Poll found headwinds to a post-pandemic travel boom.

www.yahoo.com

This seems directionally correct. We have a trip planned for early October that hinges on vaccination. We are in the key target demographic for Disney (4 kids, stay deluxe, eat in their restaurants etc etc). We would go with masks but not without a return of more key restaurants and entertainment. Just rides isn’t enough for us to shell out $5k for a few nights with early park
Closing and no chance to meet Mickey. Casual conversations with similar people say the same

 

[mmascari]

• Only 14% of Americans have booked out of state travel so far for 2021

One of those. But, that's been true for 6+ months already. The real question is, does it stick or get rescheduled again. Last year it was June pushed to August pushed to June 2021. Trip was NOT cancelled, just a date change.

We're doing the math now if we should push to August 2021 and if that might push to June 2022. I rescheduled the flights from June to August and had extra, probably useless, money that was good for a year from original purchase date. But, then good fortune, the airline cancelled the August flights, not us, and they changed the expiration for the full amount to September 2022. Haven't booked the 2021 flights yet, in case we change it and I don't want to accidentally impact that 2022 expiration date.

Besides, Tron isn't going to open until 2022 and Guardians until after our 2021 dates. Waiting another year might be best. That's my story and I'm sticking to it. While I longingly stare at the upgraded magic bands we got, right before they stopped shipping them out. How long do those batteries last anyway?

As much as the Feds have dropped the ball, to their credit, they did tell states to get ready to receive vaccines at the end of October. Yeah, that didn't happen, but, it should have been a wake-up call to the states. Any state that wasn't ready is on them. Their lack of financial resources is on the Feds since states can't print money nor (normally) borrow money.

The question here is, how much did the lack of financial resources impact all the rest. Telling the states to be ready, and when they say they have no money to pay for anything that will let them be ready. Then, telling them tough, no money, just be ready. It's no wonder they're not ready and some states are using free web sign up tools to manage appointments.

 

[Piebald]

Praying we can still get married in Europe next fall but things look bleak for international travel regardless of vaccine rollout.

 

[Incomudro]

It only took 9 months to develop a vaccine that usually takes 4 or more years to develop. Even with the distribution issues, we are still ahead of scheduled

Really.
Can't we pause, be happy and celebrate the miraculous speed at which several vaccines have become available?

 

[Disney Experience]

Florida National Guard to expand support to vaccine rollout

Guardsmen are offering logistical support to civilian medical providers who are giving vaccines. They also will help with drive-thru vaccination sites.

www.tampabay.com

 

[Darkprime]

Interesting article on a survey around the prospects of a travel boom in 2021. Some highlights:

• Only 14% of Americans have booked out of state travel so far for 2021
• 50% of those surveyed said they plan to travel out of state within 6 months of vaccination
• 61% said they would not feel comfortable traveling without the shot
• Almost 2/3 of families earning $100K+ Plan to travel compared to only 37% making under $50K
• 68% of those surveyed say they would eat out more after vaccination

For Disney that 2/3 number is huge if it holds true since that is a big demographic for them. It also skews by age with younger, lower income workers tending to me more impacted by layoffs and have less money saved. Either way, it seems Disney is heavily dependent on an efficient vaccine rollout program to jump start the parks. The longer that gets delayed the less of a summer they have.

2021 American travel boom less likely than previously thought, survey finds

A new poll from Yahoo Finance and The Harris Poll found headwinds to a post-pandemic travel boom.

www.yahoo.com

So as expected most people want the vaccine before social distancing is dropped. Well most normal people anyway. That 50% wanting to travel 6 months after the vaccine are going to be thoroughly disappointed. Most places probably wont open there borders till at least a year after the vaccine. Obviously will depend on the region. But 6 months post-vaccine just seems to soon.

 

[Disney Experience]

https://www.usnews.com/news/top-news/articles/2021-01-04/new-york-florida-tell-hospitals-to-speed-covid-19-vaccinations-or-lose-supply

New York hospitals on the whole have dispensed fewer than half of their allocated doses to date, but performance varied from one group of hospitals to another, Cuomo said. The NYC Health + Hospitals system, the city's main public hospital network, has only administered 31% of its allotment, compared with 99% for a few private hospitals in the state.
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) reported an even lower vaccine uptake for New York overall, saying fewer than one in five of the 896,000 doses shipped to the state since mid-December have been given.

In Florida, where officials have put senior citizens ahead of many essential workers for getting the vaccine, Governor Ron DeSantis announced a policy under which the state would allocate more doses to hospitals that dispense them most quickly,
"Hospitals that do not do a good job of getting the vaccine out will have their allocations transferred to hospitals that are doing a good job at getting the vaccine out," DeSantis said at a briefing.
"We do not want vaccine to just be idle at some hospital system," he added, although he did not say they would face fines.
Florida, which has dispensed less than a quarter of the 1.14 million doses it has received, according to the CDC, will also deploy an additional 1,000 nurses to administer vaccines and will keep state-run vaccination sites open seven days a week, DeSantis said.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

So as expected most people want the vaccine before social distancing is dropped. Well most normal people anyway. That 50% wanting to travel 6 months after the vaccine are going to be thoroughly disappointed. Most places probably wont open there borders till at least a year after the vaccine. Obviously will depend on the region. But 6 months post-vaccine just seems to soon.

Agree with this. Is why I think DCL will also be delaying the March 1 launch. From what people seem to be thinking, the best way to get things moving in a lot of places like cruising.. sporting events.. concerts.. is by showing proof of vaccination. Good luck filling a ship of a few thousand people and families that all have been vaccinated by that time. 6 months does seem to soon but who knows. If everything just starts clicking it may be close to that.

 

[MrHappy]

Lots of WDW discounts being offered for travel beginning 4/18. I’ve been hoping/saying 4/1 for a more aggressive ramp up of the parks and resorts. Perhaps I’ll be right....for once.

Of course we must wait and see what mr. corona wants to do.

 

[DCBaker]

Here is the list of stores -

COVID-19 Vaccines

Publix Pharmacy administers COVID-19 vaccines, subject to eligibility and vaccine availability.

ww4.publix.com

 

[Lilofan]

Lots of WDW discounts being offered for travel beginning 4/18. I’ve been hoping/saying 4/1 for a more aggressive ramp up of the parks and resorts. Perhaps I’ll be right....for once.

Of course we must wait and see what mr. corona wants to do.

FL resident discount Jan 4 - Jun 18 , $200 per person 4 days 4 parks is a good deal.

 

[Disney Experience]

So as expected most people want the vaccine before social distancing is dropped. Well most normal people anyway. That 50% wanting to travel 6 months after the vaccine are going to be thoroughly disappointed. Most places probably wont open there borders till at least a year after the vaccine. Obviously will depend on the region. But 6 months post-vaccine just seems to soon.

I think some areas have so much invested in tourism that they will be the vanguards of finding ways to allow travel.

This last October I got married and was originally planning on a trip to Jade Mountain in St. Lucia. At that time they had only 25 cases of Covid since the pandemic started (and zero active at the time I checked in Sept). They had a pretty robust protocol for allowing limited foreign travel. (I do not think their protocol has changed much since October, they have a phased reopening for tourism).

Saint Lucia Caribbean Island | Official Tourism Website | Let Her Inspire You

Explore the beauty, romance and adventure the Island of Saint Lucia has waiting for you, and take a virtual tour of the iconic landmarks and beaches. Visit our website to discover the many ways Saint Lucia can inspire you.

www.stlucia.org

Florida is not an island, nor are many tourist destination. So the protocol that works for St. Lucia does not necessarily translate to other tourist destinations.

I think the Caribbean will open up sooner than many areas of the world. Some Caribbean nations doing a better job than others.

just checked...they have had more cases since this Fall, I wonder if it was a tourist or a returning national that brought in new cases.
331 cases since the pandemic started.

Miami Heat Predicted as Top Landing Spot for Bucks Superstar by NBA Exec – first Drop

www.covid19response.lc

The country has a population of a very small county in Florida. (183,627). A little under twice the old Magic Kingdom guest capacity.

 

[MickeyLuv'r]

I think what is missing here is perhaps some context. I would need to dig it up but I have heard some interviews that the reality is that there has been work done on coronavirus vaccines in the past 20 years due to SARS in Toronto and MERS in the Middle East. In both cases, work was started but stopped as the virus burned itself out and money was diverted to more pressing issues. The 9 months is still very impressive however there was work done in the past that helped the starting point of this vaccine development. The more important thing to consider is that MONEY is the big driver of what gets done. In both SARS and MERS the money dried up once the threat was gone. With COVID of course it is still a huge threat and shows no sign of stopping or slowing down without a vaccine (unlike both SARS and MERS). Money has been nearly endless since the spring (ie. Operation Warp Speed). It also helps that because COVID is so prolific, affecting the entire global community, that there are dozens of groups working on vaccines. SARS and MERS were quite localized and therefore not a huge interest to a large part of the global or scientific community thus attracting limited research.

Ages ago in this thread...I reported that some vaccine research on SARS and MERS actually continued between the prior outbreaks and the current one. How do I say? Experts assumed more (coronavirus) outbreaks were likely. It is currently assumed there will be more outbreaks/pandemics after this one. It isn't so much if, but how soon.

More or less, Moderna has been playing a long game that their research would one day be valuable.

Where their work gets even more interesting is looking ahead to future mRNA Technology applications. I think it is fair to say, the company has a significant interest in the success of this research. We might even go so far as to say it would have been bad for Moderna if their efforts/research had flopped.

 

[Darkprime]

Agree with this. Is why I think DCL will also be delaying the March 1 launch. From what people seem to be thinking, the best way to get things moving in a lot of places like cruising.. sporting events.. concerts.. is by showing proof of vaccination. Good luck filling a ship of a few thousand people and families that all have been vaccinated by that time. 6 months does seem to soon but who knows. If everything just starts clicking it may be close to that.

2021 will see some restrictions lifted but not enough to make overseas travel worthwhile. Not expecting full international travel to return till 2022. Domestically though. Some borders could start opening up again around the summer/fall. And park capacity could start to slowly see an increase. What's great about that is there's going to be that weird honeymoon period post-vaccine where people are still nervous to go out. So expect a lot of discounts at the parks. To bring people back.

 

[GoofGoof]

So as expected most people want the vaccine before social distancing is dropped. Well most normal people anyway. That 50% wanting to travel 6 months after the vaccine are going to be thoroughly disappointed. Most places probably wont open there borders till at least a year after the vaccine. Obviously will depend on the region. But 6 months post-vaccine just seems to soon.

When they say out of state I don’t they mean international travel exclusively. It would include me traveling from PA to FL.

 

[GoofGoof]

This seems directionally correct. We have a trip planned for early October that hinges on vaccination. We are in the key target demographic for Disney (4 kids, stay deluxe, eat in their restaurants etc etc). We would go with masks but not without a return of more key restaurants and entertainment. Just rides isn’t enough for us to shell out $5k for a few nights with early park
Closing and no chance to meet Mickey. Casual conversations with similar people say the same

I’m in a similar boat. We have a trip tentatively planned for August. I have come around some on masks as I’m pretty much getting used to wearing one now and my kids wear them daily at school too so not as big a deal to me as it was last summer. I agree we are watching what comes back. I basically already paid for the entire trip last year between DVC points for the room, park tickets and airfare. The only out of pocket cost will be meals and souvenirs so I’m probably going either way unless things really take a turn for the worst.

 

[Disney Experience]

DeSantis admitted the vaccine rollout in Florida hasn't been perfect, and while health experts try to work on the logistics, he had one message: "I do not want to see a vaccine not being used when you could be putting a shot in the arm."

The governor said he'll work on getting vaccinations available to the private sector, theme parks and big companies, particularly with a one-dose vaccine when it's available.

COVID-19 vaccine in Florida: DeSantis' plan, problems involved, appointments, things to know

"2020, not the best year that I think any of us have had," Gov. DeSantis said. With the vaccine, "I think 2021 is going to be brighter."

www.tcpalm.com

 

[Touchdown]

I’m going next month (before my AP expires) and after I’ve gotten my vaccine. I currently have trips booked in Oct and Dec but that is assuming the 50th is actually a worthwhile event, if it’s not I’m getting an AP from Universal.

 

[Disney Experience]

Moderna raises 2021 vaccine output forecast to at least 600 million doses

Moderna Inc said on Monday it would produce at least 600 million doses of its COVID-19 vaccine in 2021, up by 100 million doses from its previous forecast, as the United States continues to roll-out the vaccine.

www.reuters.com

 

[Disney Experience]

From USA Today:

Not every country is struggling with its vaccine rollout – Israel has already provided first doses to over 14% of its 9 million people, according to Our World in Data. The Times of Israel credits various factors, including a "relatively small but densely-packed population and highly-professional, community-integrated health services." Less than 2% of Americans have been vaccinated.