Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[Polkadotdress]

From the CDC page:
Healthcare providers report doses to state, territorial, and local public health agencies up to 72 hours after administration. There may be additional reporting lag for data to be transmitted from the state, territorial, or local public health agency to CDC.

The CDC is reporting doses distributed without a lag because Warp Speed directs Pfizer and Moderna where to ship the doses. As soon as they leave the manufacturing facility they get flagged as ”distributed”. The actual administration of the shots is not run by the federal government. It’s from the local level up to the states then up to the CDC. So a hospital that is administering the vaccine is probably more focused on actual vaccinations vs reporting. I also think Christmas plays a part. Many people are on vacation the past few weeks of the year so that May account for additional lags in reporting.

A good way to look at this is there are nearly 12M doses distributed so while we are unlikely to hit the 20M originally targeted its possible to be somewhere around 15M or more. Not great but not a train wreck either.

One of the new Covid task force doctors was just on CNN sharing that the vaccination rate has been too slow. While she said we should celebrate the 2 million, she also said that at that rate, it will take years to get to herd immunity here in the US.

On a related note, the phone registration just opened here in Osceola Cty for +65 to call/register for an appointment. Ironically, the phone lines seem to be managed by the same team that oversees the disfunctional FL unemployment phone system because either you can’t get thru, or you’re on hold for hours before abruptly being disconnected, or you DO get thru but the person who answers says they can’t help you.

It’s such a cluster. My parents spent several hours trying to get an appointment today. No luck.

 

[Disney Experience]

Ok not Disney Cruise leadership, but the following article from two weeks ago shows that some in the cruise industry know that until vaccination takes hold, cruising is on hold. Protocols will not do it...alone. Good thing vaccination is now starting to happen. I would not be surprised if it is a mandatory requirement for early cruising.

Royal Caribbean Chairman CEO says vaccines, not new protocols, will be what gets cruises going again

Royal Caribbean Group Chairman and CEO Richard Fain has a new outlook on cruises restarting, and it is a significant departure from his outlook in the...

www.royalcaribbeanblog.com

 

[mmascari]

What, specifically, do you suggest the national response should have been? I've yet to hear a suggestion that would actually work long term but didn't require long term lockdowns.

The reason that people (i.e. me) can think flattening was the only goal is because that is what Dr. Fauci stood up and told us it was. He drew pictures in the air with his finger and told us that mitigation was necessary to flatten the curve. The air picture he drew clearly showed he was illustrating the total cases not being that different but just spreading the outbreak over time.

I'm assuming you’re not looking then. Pandemic response tactics aren’t new. The tools have changed, but the basic strategy is the same as ever. Start with a sick person and isolate them, find all the people they may have infected, test, find who is infected, repeat. Do it faster than the virus spreads. That’s it, do the isolate loop faster than the virus does the transmission loop.

I saw this picture earlier today.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EqWehZjXEAIkKCq?format=jpg&name=medium

It’s a good reminder that our contact circles are way bigger than we think. It’s a huge reason “isolate the vulnerable” is harder than it sounds. Isolate the infected, there’s less of them than any other group. Bonus, they stop being infectious after a short time unlike the vulnerable who are that way nearly forever.

Lockdown as a strategy slows the spread by stopping all interactions. It will never get it under control. There are huge diminishing results once community spread is low. It’s really only useful when community spread is rampant.

 

[GoofGoof]

One of the new Covid task force doctors was just on CNN sharing that the vaccination rate has been too slow. While she said we should celebrate the 2 million, she also said that at that rate, it will take years to get to herd immunity here in the US.

On a related note, the phone registration just opened here in Osceola Cty for +65 to call/register for an appointment. Ironically, the phone lines seem to be managed by the same team that oversees the disfunctional FL unemployment phone system because either you can’t get thru, or you’re on hold for hours before abruptly being disconnected, or you DO get thru but the person who answers says they can’t help you.

It’s such a cluster. My parents spent several hours trying to get an appointment today. No luck.

We vaccinated 90M+ people in a matter of a few months for H1N1 which had nowhere near the level of scrutiny and resources dedicated to it that this has. it’s a huge undertaking, but theres no reason to believe it will take years.

 

[danlb_2000]

One of the new Covid task force doctors was just on CNN sharing that the vaccination rate has been too slow. While she said we should celebrate the 2 million, she also said that at that rate, it will take years to get to herd immunity here in the US.

On a related note, the phone registration just opened here in Osceola Cty for +65 to call/register for an appointment. Ironically, the phone lines seem to be managed by the same team that oversees the disfunctional FL unemployment phone system because either you can’t get thru, or you’re on hold for hours before abruptly being disconnected, or you DO get thru but the person who answers says they can’t help you.

It’s such a cluster. My parents spent several hours trying to get an appointment today. No luck.

Yes, vaccinations are going slower then hoped, but we also didn't expect to ramp up to the needed rate in just a few weeks, it will take some time for the system to get operating smoothly.

 

[Disney Experience]

We vaccinated 90M+ people in a matter of a few months for H1N1 which had nowhere near the level of scrutiny and resources dedicated to it that this has. it’s a huge undertaking, but theres no reason to believe it will take years.

I agree. I have not listened to the CNN story, but if they are assuming that the rate of vaccination stays constant, that is very unrealistic. It is ramping up in a non-linear matter. Once CVS and Walgreens actually have enough vaccine distributed to them, the vaccination rate will be substantial. As a country we minimized supply chain risk by buying from many different potential vaccine manufacturers. That was a good move, even if some do not get approved, or some have manufacturing issue, there is enough other vaccines to fill much of the need.

The demand is there, with rich donors offering 25,000 dollars to Cedar Sinai to jump ahead in line, to regular people paying $150 per shot in Brooklyn, NY [I am not implying that the later set knew that their priority group in NYC was not up]

 

[danlb_2000]

We vaccinated 90M+ people in a matter of a few months for H1N1 which had nowhere near the level of scrutiny and resources dedicated to it that this has. it’s a huge undertaking, but theres no reason to believe it will take years.

... and how many people do we vaccinate for the flu every year?

[Edit]: I looked it up, in recent years, anywhere from 140 to 170 million doses. Yes, flu vaccination is simpler, but it shows we can do large scale vaccinations.

 

[SamusAranX]

... and how many people do we vaccinate for the flu every year?

Not nearly enough I’m sure. And I am guilty of it, this was the first year I have ever gotten a flu shot.

 

[danlb_2000]

I'm not smoking anything. I don't classify the response as "good" but for different reasons. Most people saying what you said believe that a good response would have been nationwide restrictions. I think more focus should have been put on isolating the elderly with financial help for those living in multi-generational households to stay somewhere else and have essentials delivered and business restrictions should have been voluntary with businesses doing what they needed to attract customers. As you know, I believe in people having the freedom to choose what risk they want to take.

Which is fine when the taking of those risks only effects them. When dealing with an infectious disease people's decisions not only effect, them but also effect others. Would you advocate that it's a infringement of your freedom that you are not allowed to urinate on a public sidewalk?

 

[SamusAranX]

Which is fine when the taking of those risks only effects them. When dealing with an infectious disease people's decisions not only effect, them but also effect others. Would you advocate that it's a infringement of your freedom that you are not allowed to urinate on a public sidewalk?

Actually I would. If I gotta go, I gotta go. Hurts my bladder ya know

 

[correcaminos]

We vaccinated 90M+ people in a matter of a few months for H1N1 which had nowhere near the level of scrutiny and resources dedicated to it that this has. it’s a huge undertaking, but theres no reason to believe it will take years.

No kidding. I remember it being a cluster feel at first too. Then soon after it was smooth sailing. I waited once line for over 2 hours with my a few months shy of 2yo. Had to leave because supplies ran out. Tried again a couple weeks later and scored my first shot and my kid's. Only took an hour that time. By the time we needed the 2nd dose for my child, I could easily get it at the pediatrician. Not saying this will happen that way but I always expect issues at first.

 

[Disney Experience]

... and how many people do we vaccinate for the flu every year?

[Edit]: I looked it up, in recent years, anywhere from 140 to 170 million doses. Yes, flu vaccination is simpler, but it shows we can do large scale vaccinations.

I am actually amazed at how few of that number is via the major drug stores (CVS, Walgreens & Rite Aid).

CVS does 20 million vaccination this last year up from 10 million. That is a lot, but less than 15% of the total flu vaccinations (Assuming all 20 million were flu vaccinations, which they were not).

Our COVID-19 Response | CVS Health

CVS Health® is committed to keeping patients, members, customers and colleagues safe throughout the pandemic. Learn about our ongoing response to COVID-19.

cvshealth.com

Decades ago they (CVS & Walgreens, don't know about Rite-Aid) did not vaccinate at all

But getting into the vaccination business was good for them even in 2013:

How Flu Shots Became Big Sales Booster For Walgreen, CVS

Less than four years after pharmacies like Walgreen and CVS began a lobbying blitz to convince state regulators across the country to allow pharmacists to administer flu shots, the drugstore giants are seeing a huge increase in business and sales. (Photo credit: paulswansen) Less than four years...

www.forbes.com

 

[matt9112]

One of the reasons there aren't extra supplies of ventilators, masks, PPE, ICU wings is that the capitalized and commercialized for-profit health care system has zero incentive to stockpile (and keep the stockpile 'fresh') in case of emergencies. Privatized health care systems don't profit from such stockpiling. Nor are they required to do so.

However, stockpiling is what governments do since they're supposed to be ready for emergencies and it is bankrolled by the entire population.

But, it is hysterically ironic that you point to a failure in the current for-profit system and claim that's a property of a nationalized system. You really don't see that the thing you're pointing to is evidence of a failure of a privatized health care system? Because, it's proof positive. That you pointed out. Good on you.

Its all risk assessment....the same thing that determines how many snow plows a city will buy. The problem with goverment is that there is no incentive to save money and or be efficient. Theres alot of good ideas but the implementation is horrid because its the opposite of your example. You have warehouses full of what becomes landfill matter at some point. When the goverment asks for something even if it MAY solicit bids its going to pay....nobody wonders why they cant just buy the same bolt from home depot for example. (Very rarely is something super special needed) bureaucracy creates the standards and rules that continue to grow and create more cost and less incentive to be efficient.

The correct answer is a morally just private venture..yes there a real thing....just not common enough. Making money and being a decent human are not entirely incompatible.

 

[Kevin_W]

Yes, vaccinations are going slower then hoped, but we also didn't expect to ramp up to the needed rate in just a few weeks, it will take some time for the system to get operating smoothly.

If only they had know for months that a vaccine was in development. Or even back in Septembe/October the 2 likely ones that would be authorized in November/December and the exact conditions needed for distribution so that they could have planned. Argh.

 

[techgeek]

The reason that people (i.e. me) can think flattening was the only goal is because that is what Dr. Fauci stood up and told us it was. He drew pictures in the air with his finger and told us that mitigation was necessary to flatten the curve. The air picture he drew clearly showed he was illustrating the total cases not being that different but just spreading the outbreak over time.

Whatever Fauci’s ‘air art’ skills might be, I’m pretty confident the curve he was attempting to draw was not one of these:

 

[Disney Experience]

If only they had know for months that a vaccine was in development. Or even back in Septembe/October the 2 likely ones that would be authorized in November/December and the exact conditions needed for distribution so that they could have planned. Argh.

If by “they” you mean the federal government, they have done a lot to get supply chain and distribution ready before EUA. If you mean the states, well each state gets to control within their own borders what gets done and they cannot say that they did not know what was going to get approved.

I remember when the federal government suggested states prepare for the distribution and storage requirements unique to the vaccines likely to get approved, and do not wait until they are approved before getting the planning, people, process, and storage equipment.

 

[The Mom]

Politically tinged remarks specifically related to Coronavirus are allowed (for now) but those that are just political in general are not.

 

[Kevin_W]

I remember when the federal government suggested states prepare for the distribution and storage requirements unique to the vaccines likely to get approved, and do not wait until they are approved before getting the planning, people, process, and storage equipment.

Right, and it appears that many states did not do this well (mine included).

 

[Thelazer]

In other news, Universal hit capacity before 9am today.

 

[SamusAranX]

In other news, Universal hit capacity before 9am today.

Dang. New Years is actually a busy time for them normally because of fireworks; did they not suspend them this year like Disney?