Coronavirus and Walt Disney World general discussion

[marni1971]

I am apparently at "death's door." I'm only behind 23 million people and only 35,000 people in my county.

Changing COVID-related health risks to No puts me down to 268.7 million, but I do have 3 risk factors, so I guess they are finally good for something.

I’m currently number 10 in a list of 9.

 

[hopemax]

"New results on a possible COVID-19 vaccine from Oxford University and AstraZeneca suggest it is safe and about 70% effective, but questions remain about how well it may help protect those over 55 — a key concern for a vaccine that health officials hope to rely on around the world because of its low cost, availability and ease of use.

Still, experts say the vaccine seems likely to be approved, despite some confusion in the results and lower levels of protection than what other vaccine candidates have shown.

“What we can see looks reasonable, but it’s a bit more complicated than what we’ve seen so far,” said Dr. Buddy Creech, a Vanderbilt University researcher helping to test two other vaccines. “If this had been the first report out, the field would have still been excited to have a vaccine.”

"The medical journal Lancet on Tuesday published partial results from tests of the vaccine in the United Kingdom, Brazil and South Africa — safety results on 23,745 participants and protection levels on 11,636.

They’re hard to interpret because a mistake led some participants to get a half dose followed by a full one rather than two full doses as intended.

Researchers claim the vaccine protected against disease in 62% of those given two full doses and in 90% of those initially given the half dose. However, independent experts have said the second group was too small — 2,741 people — to judge the possible value of that approach and that more testing is needed.

The half-dose group also didn’t include anyone over 55, and among others in the study, only about 20% were in that age group.

It’s unclear if the results will be enough to lead regulators in the United Kingdom and elsewhere to approve its use right away.

“We have no safety concerns about the vaccine,” with no hospitalizations or severe disease among those who received it, and results from all study locations consistently showing benefit, said one study leader, Oxford’s Andrew Pollard.

“The only way we get the pandemic behind us is if we get doses of vaccine out there,” he said.

AstraZeneca’s Mene Pangalos called the results “very compelling” and said they “clearly show we have an effective vaccine” that meets criteria for approval around the world. “I really believe this vaccine will have a big impact on the pandemic,” he said."

Studies suggest AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine safe, effective

New results on a possible COVID-19 vaccine from Oxford University and AstraZeneca suggest it is safe and about 70% effective, but questions remain about how well it may help protect those over 55 — a key concern for a vaccine that health officials hope to rely on around the world because of its low

apnews.com

I don't know how the US is going to manage the AstraZeneca being 70% and the other two being 90+%. Everybody is going to want to wait for the "better" vaccine. Hopefully, the continuing research on the one vs two dose regimen will bump that up.

 

[Heppenheimer]

Yes, this is true. And when nearly everyone is protected by a vaccine, there will be no need for them. Instead of being protected by my mask, others will be 95% protected by their vaccine. You may disagree, but I don't see mask-wearing as lasting much longer.

We need to see case numbers at a consistently lower level before we can start relaxing restrictions. Vaccination is just a means to that goal.

 

[Animal_Kingdom_09]

Who’s paying/coordinating that?

And anything in Florida laws (Swiss cheese) that would require vaccination for employment? It is a “right to exploit” state.

A private employer in Florida can require a vaccine, provided that they have a policy that allows for accommodations for employees who cannot take them (for example, allergic to any ingredients or have a compromised immune system). However, I have not seen any push to require them from any companies on the west coast of the state. I think you are more likely to see employers offer some incentive if they want their employees to get vaccinated. Much less liability if it is voluntary.

WDW will be driven by what the unions want - similar to the mask mandates. I really don't know if the unions are pro mandatory vaccines or not.

It's not what you asked, but I think you will see the mask mandates at WDW for guests until the vaccine is available to the unionized cast members. Once the risk is back to normal for them Disney will switch to the same model the rest of us use - which is to require them as long as customers want them.

 

[_caleb]

There's a difference between going to Walmart and taking a $10,000+ trip to Disney. Also, the sake of others will be covered if you get a vaccine.

You seem to have a pessimistic view of Disney's outlook and I've found there's no winning arguing against that type of thinking. I disagree, so let's leave it at that.

Your conclusion about my outlook seems strange to me. What I’m pessimistic about is the ability of American citizens to be considerate of others. I’m extremely optimistic about Disney’s outlook.

Disney will find a way to keep their business viable. I think they’re going to innovate their way out of the current challenges they face. They are capable of much more than temp checks, mask rules, and plexiglas.

And you’re right, my Walmart example isn’t the best because of the cost of a Disney parks trip. The sense of entitlement people display by ignoring protocols in a Walmart is nothing compared to the entitlement of those who are paying big bucks to visit a theme park during a pandemic.

 

[Chi84]

We need to see case numbers at a consistently lower level before we can start relaxing restrictions. Vaccination is just a means to that goal.

Why do you believe widespread vaccination will not lead to seeing consistently lower case numbers? Isn't that the purpose of vaccination, and aren't the vaccinations being approved highly effective? It's not like anyone is suggesting that mask-wearing be dropped after the first person is vaccinated.

 

[Sirwalterraleigh]

A private employer in Florida can require a vaccine, provided that they have a policy that allows for accommodations for employees who cannot take them (for example, allergic to any ingredients or have a compromised immune system). However, I have not seen any push to require them from any companies on the west coast of the state. I think you are more likely to see employers offer some incentive if they want their employees to get vaccinated. Much less liability if it is voluntary.

WDW will be driven by what the unions want - similar to the mask mandates. I really don't know if the unions are pro mandatory vaccines or not.

It's not what you asked, but I think you will see the mask mandates at WDW for guests until the vaccine is available to the unionized cast members. Once the risk is back to normal for them Disney will switch to the same model the rest of us use - which is to require them as long as customers want them.

Great post

However the unions have no control over disney

 

[Chi84]

Your conclusion about my outlook seems strange to me. What I’m pessimistic about is the ability of American citizens to be considerate of others. I’m extremely optimistic about Disney’s outlook.

Disney will find a way to keep their business viable. I think they’re going to innovate their way out of the current challenges they face. They are capable of much more than temp checks, mask rules, and plexiglas.

And you’re right, my Walmart example isn’t the best because of the cost of a Disney parks trip. The sense of entitlement people display by ignoring protocols in a Walmart is nothing compared to the entitlement of those who are paying big bucks to visit a theme park during a pandemic.

My conclusion about your outlook is based on your statement that Disney is looking at this virus as an opportunity to cut costs and further limit what a guest can expect for the price of a ticket to the park.

And yes, I believe that people who pay big bucks to visit a theme park are entitled to an experience free of unnecessary restrictions once a highly effective vaccine is available to all. If people are still uncomfortable with the lack of restrictions at that time, then a theme park is probably not the best choice for them.

 

[lazyboy97o]

One of the tricky parts of making a vaccine a requirement for something is, when is it feasible to start doing that? You would probably have to wait until we reach a point where anyone can freely get a vaccine which is ways off, and even further off if you include people from other countries.

For international visitors, I would not be surprised to see vaccination required for entry into the country and/or for returning to their home country.

 

[techgeek]

I don't think there will ever be an announced date where suddenly Disney flips the switch to normal. It's going to be as gradual and stepped a process as they can manage. Masks, capacity, plexiglass, testing and vaccines all playing a part in it.

From an operational perspective, it would be highly impractical and possibly impossible to move from 35% / mitigations on 8/31/2021 to 100% / no mitigations on 9/1/2021, for instance. Supply chains, staffing, operations... all that has to be ramped up. You can't just turn it all back on at once.

 

[GoofGoof]

I don't know how the US is going to manage the AstraZeneca being 70% and the other two being 90+%. Everybody is going to want to wait for the "better" vaccine. Hopefully, the continuing research on the one vs two dose regimen will bump that up.

I think we need to wait to see the US trial results. I wouldn’t expect them to be much different, but the UK trial data is tainted at this point due to the error. If the US trial comes back above 70% I think it will be rolled out as an option too. AstraZeneca’s vaccine doesn’t require deep freeze so will be more desirable in rural areas where access to proper freezers is not always available. I think the Pfizer vaccine in particular will be much more focused on larger urban centers with big hospitals or medical facilities capable of storing the vaccine and large numbers of people able to show up at a more centralized point.

If the data holds that the AstraZeneca vaccine is not effect in older people that may also change the mix. They May more heavily focus on distributing the Pfizer and Moderna doses to the elderly since they seemed pretty effective for them in the trial results.

 

[_caleb]

My conclusion about your outlook is based on your statement that Disney is looking at this virus as an opportunity to cut costs and further limit what a guest can expect for the price of a ticket to the park.

And yes, I believe that people who pay big bucks to visit a theme park are entitled to an experience free of unnecessary restrictions once a highly effective vaccine is available to all.

Do you think all of the changes Disney has made are only temporary? That they will replace all the CMs they laid off? Do you think all the live shows will return? That they will do away with mobile food orders, mobile phone checkout in shops, etc?

 

[mmascari]

I’m not sure how much money there is to be made from this vaccine. It all depends on how frequently the vaccine is needed in the future. The leading companies are all selling their initial doses of vaccine at not much above break even while there is still a pandemic.

Define "not much"? At a $1 profit, selling 500,000 doses, that's $500,000 dollars in profit. Scale with big numbers and even small adjustments are a powerful thing. It's the same reason car companies try to shave pennies off the production cost.

I did see an article somewhere that said they won’t vaccinate healthy adults not at high risk or children under the emergency use authorization. They expect that between essential workers, elderly people and adults with underlying health issues the EUA will cover at least 150M Americans. The expectation is the FDA will need 6 months of trial data plus additional data from the millions vaccinated under EUA to consider full authorization and even then it may just be a more relaxed extension of EUA that includes additional people as opposed to full, unrestricted approval. That won’t happen until around April timeframe so I think that’s why some of the government officials like Fauci and the warp speed guys reference starting to vaccinate the general population in April with anyone who wants a vaccine going by June.

I would expect the EUA expansions to mirror the CDC guidelines on who should get the vaccine in what order. Not because they're directly coordinated, but but because they're based on the same underlying information. People with high risk of bad COVID outcomes can put up with more unknown risks from a vaccine. It's risk/reward comparison. The same underlying reason someone should get it first, high reward from protection, is why they can accept a higher risk of the unknown.

The healthy 16 year old has a low COVID risk (as hundreds of posts point out), so they can wait until the unknown risks have more time to get from "low risk" to "extremely low risk". The more time and more doses given, the more data we'll have on this.

But mask-wearing as a requirement or mandate should be dropped as soon as an effective vaccine is available to all. Then the ones who want to protect themselves can get the vaccine and the others can wear masks. No one knows right now when that will happen, but it makes no sense for vaccinated people to be forced to wear masks so I believe the requirement will not last much longer. Apparently, the president-elect agrees.

None of the mitigation actions (masks, distance, capacity) are going to be tied to vaccine availability. They'll all be tied to community spread and rising/falling case counts. The vaccine is just a good way to lower those quickly.

If the time between general vaccine availability and better metrics is relatively quick, nobody is going to do anything special for those that got the vaccine first. If it drags on for a very long time, then some might. Different industries will have different definitions of fast enough, largely based on how devastated they are vs the problem of creating special rules. Cruise ships that are super devastated and have very controlled customer populations are a good case for special rules. Gyms that are wide open to more people and limping along, less so. Grocery stores that are basically functioning fine now with restrictions will probably never have special rules.

For most industries, I wouldn't expect people early in the vaccine line to get any special treatment. The logistics are just to hard. They're difficult when it's an "only vaccinated" option and impossible when both types of people need to mix with special rules for some.

 

[seascape]

According to Goldman Sacks there is going to be an over supply of vaccine in the second quater on 2021. There are will be drops in the number of cases starting in January and falling consistently through the end of March. The full problem can be over by the end of April if the anti vaccine fools take the shot! It is up to the crazy people in California to take the shot and if they do Disneyland will reopen sooner than many people, including me, think.

 

[Chi84]

According to Goldman Sacks there is going to be an over supply of vaccine in the second quater on 2021. There are will be drops in the number of cases starting in January and falling consistently through the end of March. The full problem can be over by the end of April if the anti vaccine fools take the shot! It is up to the crazy people in California to take the shot and if they do Disneyland will reopen sooner than many people, including me, think.

Wow, are you going to catch hell here!

 

[DisneyDebRob]

According to Goldman Sacks there is going to be an over supply of vaccine in the second quater on 2021. There are will be drops in the number of cases starting in January and falling consistently through the end of March. The full problem can be over by the end of April if the anti vaccine fools take the shot! It is up to the crazy people in California to take the shot and if they do Disneyland will reopen sooner than many people, including me, think.

I’m assuming by “crazy” people you mean anti vaccine people. Well the “crazy” people as you put it are everywhere. Every state.. your neighbors, even here on the boards. We can only hope there aren’t as many as we believe there are.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

Wow, are you going to catch hell here!

I think most would love that if true. Doesn’t come with data or how they get to their point so I take it with a grain of salt like the hundred of other predictions.

 

[_caleb]

Disney would love for it to be safe enough to remove all the restrictions. No amount of cost cutting is going to replace the revenues lost from lack of larger crowds. If they can remove distancing on rides and in queues that opens the door for the removal of capacity limits on the parks and also allows them to bring back people eating shows and full restaurants. Once that happens even if they still require masks the crowds will return. Not pre-pandemic crowds but big enough to make an actual profit. I think they will take an iterative approach where they pull back on restrictions gradually with a focus on removing the ones causing the most harm to business first. As we get into July/Aug and the extreme summer heat masks start to become a bigger problem again. Only time will tell if cases drop enough to pull back further.

I guess it depends on how many people are staying away from the parks specifically because of the mask/distancing requirements. I agree that Disney wants a lot people in the parks, but I don’t think Disney is going to rush to bring back everything they cut and in many cases, will not bring things back (live entertainment, full fireworks shows, in-person ordering/checkout) in order to save money.

This has got me thinking, about a topic for another thread, though. If Disney identified the oppressive Florida heat and humidity as a deterrent to people visiting the parks, wouldn’t they figure out a way to keep guests cool?

 

[GoofGoof]

Define "not much"? At a $1 profit, selling 500,000 doses, that's $500,000 dollars in profit. Scale with big numbers and even small adjustments are a powerful thing. It's the same reason car companies try to shave pennies off the production cost.

The pharma companies involved are huge. Pfizer had $80 billion in revenues last year. They will make a profit from their Covid vaccine but it isn’t some huge windfall for them as was being implied in the post I replied to. Their stock price really didn’t move a whole lot on the vaccine news. AstraZeneca has pledged to not profit from the vaccine while the pandemic continues. That leaves the door open for them to raise prices as soon as they deem the pandemic is behind us. The point is I think we should give these companies some credit for dedicating time and company resources to Covid vaccine research even if it’s not the most profitable venture for them.

 

[DisneyDebRob]

I guess it depends on how many people are staying away from the parks specifically because of the mask/distancing requirements. I agree that Disney wants a lot people in the parks, but I don’t think Disney is going to rush to bring back everything they cut and in many cases, will not bring things back (live entertainment, full fireworks shows, in-person ordering/checkout) in order to save money.

This has got me thinking, about a topic for another thread, though. If Disney identified the oppressive Florida heat and humidity as a deterrent to people visiting the parks, wouldn’t they figure out a way to keep guests cool?

Move up here to PA.